Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Mar 24, 2020 2:49:09 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Mar 24, 2020 4:35:28 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 24, 2020 5:40:29 GMT -8
Ken Fisher said in a couple books to be careful of the economic data coming out of China, as it appears to be artfully tailored to fit their governmental cycles. But combine that with a supply/demand hit in the world economy, that we can't yet quantify, and that's a different hiccup than just tailoring the books. It's not that they are modifying things. But if they have for other reasons, they might just change things a little now. Still, I like hearing that production at Apple's assemblers is up to seasonal speed, and I hope it's accurate. Some companies are on different cycles than Apple, similar to what I realized while working at IGT, a slot machine maker. There, they got hit a little slower at the start of the 2008 down cycle, but the real problem was on the recovery. First people had to feel good enough to go gamble. Then the gambling houses had to feel good enough to place orders. And then IGT had to feel good enough to keep employees and up salaries. And investors had to feel good enough with IGT to start bidding up the price again. This is not the type of investment I'd want to be in going into a recession, and yet it might be a delayed play on the recovery, used after most have recovered. Intel seems to be at a slightly similar point, just now warning that they likely will see a dip. Intel suspends share buybacks, warns of likely coronavirus hitNice to see some green, even after the opening. Lots of chaos and volatility these days, so just a little green won't make me too upbeat.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 24, 2020 7:14:51 GMT -8
Maybe a week and a half ago I put in an order to buy back the 50 Jan '21 330 covered calls I wrote, at first trying to nab them at just better than breakeven thinking that a rise was imminent. Then I lowered the order from around $10 to $8, then $7, looking to make a profit. At some point I put it down to $5.2 and walked away, surprised that pricing was still around $10 for a call 10 months out needing close to a 50% rise to hit breakeven.
Well, it hit yesterday, buying back at $5.2, for a profit of a little more than $500 per contract.
Far OTM options prices are changing. I wouldn't suggest bottom fishing for bullish positions on those, but at the same time it might not be entirely outlandish to buy back covered calls with the potential of rewriting them or something similar if there is a good hop. At least that's what I decided.
Careful out there. While tiny bites might be ok, it's most likely that the high volatility will continue until there's a good reason to feel you can see around this, at least with anything shorter term. I might take a look at some 1+ year ATM spreads as they often have the payout of a coin flip (100% gain, or 100% loss). And I'm considering taking bigger bites of AAPL, SPY, or some more solid Oil company. They sure took a beating.
(EDIT: But with volatility like it has been, and how I continue to expect it to be due to news and the virus, I'll be putting most purchases at this point on down days, not up ones)
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Post by duckpins on Mar 24, 2020 9:56:18 GMT -8
Why anyone would buy an oil company I don't know. I have been warning my friends to sell them for years. Every time a solar panel or electric car is built, a waste burning plant to create energy or a windmill is planted aggregate demand goes down. Every time the Saudis get in the mood supply goes up, this with Libya destroyed by HRC and production in half the last I looked, sanctions for no reason on Iran, Iraq still in recovery and Venezuela at war with the US-lots of supply waiting. Buying the 3xs bull ETFs is like buying an option with no time value. DFEN is a collection of companies that are spoon fed billions by both parties. It was near 60 recently 6 last few days. No time value. Just wait, they won't let BA go under even though they have planes at 100-150 million a piece parked that can't be sold because they crash. Boeing has stalled and normally stalled jets crash but this one will fall into a big fucking net of money. DFEN is about 15% BA. Other bull ETFs make sense as well, the TQQQ for instance are probably the safest. They don't depend on handouts from congress. The risk for DFEN is someone cuts defense spending, who would that B?
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ems
Member
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Post by ems on Mar 24, 2020 11:21:17 GMT -8
Part of the reason that options can be an attractive play right now is because of the volatility. Yes, it increases the prices on them somewhat, depending on the day (AAPL puts are attractive today for example), but at least with AAPL there has always been a "greed premium" on AAPL options even on low-volatility days, it seems. If you think things have further to fall (I do, even though I am long-term bullish), in the next 1-2 months, some slightly OTM puts can be worth looking at. Yes, would have been worth buying them earlier of course but even now, esp. on a green day like today, value seems good enough that another down day could make for a profitable scalp. AAPL tends to fall quicker than it rises, I think, generally - usually due to the usual FUD we see around AAPL all the time. SPY also has a lot of volume and volatility so shorter-dated options on that might be worth exploring too I think, and sometimes with less premium cost than AAPL options.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 24, 2020 11:22:57 GMT -8
Why anyone would buy an oil company I don't know. I have been warning my friends to sell them for years. Every time a solar panel or electric car is built, a waste burning plant to create energy or a windmill is planted aggregate demand goes down. Is energy demand going up or down for the world, independent of the source? Is a battery a solution for all gas or diesel things? If not now, then when? And what's the replacement cycle. If cost is the issue, when won't it be, and are there any other bottlenecks on making enough batteries to power everything? We had windmills on the hills 30 years ago, and solar collectors starting then too. In the right place, and with the right needs, they work great. OTOH, there are times where one just knocks back to the tried and true. As a Chemical Engineer, even nearly 25 years ago when we visited Chevron, they talked of their algae experiments, and how they saw themselves as an energy company instead of and oil company, and that they would move as things change. Since then usage is still mostly oil, but there's been the increase of shale, and natural gas. Still, things haven't changed that much, with propane and fuel cell items not gaining traction, and battery powered things starting to but still being a small percentage. It's great if you want to toss out the old when things are just starting to change, planning for the future. Years ago I had First Solar for a while. But, there's still a long life for oil, and energy companies. What is interesting to me is that this time around, coupled with the slowdown due to the virus spread, the amount of extra oil being pumped which tipped the scales and caused the fright was pretty small. I'm now already tied into Oil in some fashion, potentially for the rest of my life. Whether I make any outside trades in oil or energy companies is a different question. Thank you for having shared your perspective. FWIW, a former neighbor who was a captain for XOM and has most of his funds there when he retired, has been moving over to green energy. It is a trend, but given that some of these things were trendy even back in 1999, one has to be careful about new technologies vs good long term investments.
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Post by pauls on Mar 24, 2020 11:56:28 GMT -8
I let go another tranch of AAPL on this spike, have now lightened by 20% of shares held long term. My feeling is we will see lower, and all over the place each week for awhile. Now overweight cash but that's ok.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Mar 24, 2020 12:17:10 GMT -8
Part of the reason that options can be an attractive play right now is because of the volatility. Yes, it increases the prices on them somewhat, depending on the day (AAPL puts are attractive today for example), but at least with AAPL there has always been a "greed premium" on AAPL options even on low-volatility days, it seems. If you think things have further to fall (I do, even though I am long-term bullish), in the next 1-2 months, some slightly OTM puts can be worth looking at. Yes, would have been worth buying them earlier of course but even now, esp. on a green day like today, value seems good enough that another down day could make for a profitable scalp. AAPL tends to fall quicker than it rises, I think, generally - usually due to the usual FUD we see around AAPL all the time. SPY also has a lot of volume and volatility so shorter-dated options on that might be worth exploring too I think, and sometimes with less premium cost than AAPL options. Given the volatilty, I wonder what you think of a strangle on Apple or TSLA right now. I am thinking short term say July for expiration.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 24, 2020 12:33:22 GMT -8
Why anyone would buy an oil company I don't know. I have been warning my friends to sell them for years. Every time a solar panel or electric car is built, a waste burning plant to create energy or a windmill is planted aggregate demand goes down. Every time the Saudis get in the mood supply goes up, this with Libya destroyed by HRC and production in half the last I looked, sanctions for no reason on Iran, Iraq still in recovery and Venezuela at war with the US-lots of supply waiting. Buying the 3xs bull ETFs is like buying an option with no time value. DFEN is a collection of companies that are spoon fed billions by both parties. It was near 60 recently 6 last few days. No time value. J ust wait, they won't let BA go under even though they have planes at 100-150 million a piece parked that can't be sold because they crash. Boeing has stalled and normally stalled jets crash but this one will fall into a big fucking net of money. DFEN is about 15% BA. Other bull ETFs make sense as well, the TQQQ for instance are probably the safest. They don't depend on handouts from congress. The risk for DFEN is someone cuts defense spending, who would that B?
so i considered putting some money into BA, but dissuaded myself.... sure, they'll get a bailout, but will the current shareholders see any of that money? it will be workers, current management, bondholders, and finally government with some caveats
current market cap of BA is 70b or so (it went as low as 55b)... seems the relevant questions would be: ....what was the market cap /value of equity of automakers in 2009 or whenever they got their bailouts? (could be as low as zero in chapter 11?) ....what conditions (if any) did the US gov-t impose on the automakers to provide the loans?
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 24, 2020 12:43:54 GMT -8
Why anyone would buy an oil company I don't know. I have been warning my friends to sell them for years. Every time a solar panel or electric car is built, a waste burning plant to create energy or a windmill is planted aggregate demand goes down. Is energy demand going up or down for the world, independent of the source? Is a battery a solution for all gas or diesel things? If not now, then when? And what's the replacement cycle. If cost is the issue, when won't it be, and are there any other bottlenecks on making enough batteries to power everything? We had windmills on the hills 30 years ago, and solar collectors starting then too. In the right place, and with the right needs, they work great. OTOH, there are times where one just knocks back to the tried and true. As a Chemical Engineer, even nearly 25 years ago when we visited Chevron, they talked of their algae experiments, and how they saw themselves as an energy company instead of and oil company, and that they would move as things change. Since then usage is still mostly oil, but there's been the increase of shale, and natural gas. Still, things haven't changed that much, with propane and fuel cell items not gaining traction, and battery powered things starting to but still being a small percentage. It's great if you want to toss out the old when things are just starting to change, planning for the future. Years ago I had First Solar for a while. But, there's still a long life for oil, and energy companies. What is interesting to me is that this time around, coupled with the slowdown due to the virus spread, the amount of extra oil being pumped which tipped the scales and caused the fright was pretty small. I'm now already tied into Oil in some fashion, potentially for the rest of my life. Whether I make any outside trades in oil or energy companies is a different question. Thank you for having shared your perspective. FWIW, a former neighbor who was a captain for XOM and has most of his funds there when he retired, has been moving over to green energy. It is a trend, but given that some of these things were trendy even back in 1999, one has to be careful about new technologies vs good long term investments.
4aapl - do you remember how low p/e ratios went for oil majors in the past 20 years? (particularly 2001-2003 and again 2008-2009) i see XOM at a p/e of 11 (was 10 this morning, shoulda snapped some).... and apparently the price is at the 2002 lows?! like, it was in the mid-$30s (as it is now) in 1998?!
duckpins - there's oil co's and there's oil co's.... small US shale companies might be completely screwed by the COVID / OPEC double-whammy.... but that just leaves the majors (XOM etc) with less competition coming out of the crisis, when that time eventually comes, no?
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 24, 2020 12:55:53 GMT -8
4aapl - do you remember how low p/e ratios went for oil majors in the past 20 years? (particularly 2001-2003 and again 2008-2009) i see XOM at a p/e of 11 (was 10 this morning, shoulda snapped some).... and apparently the price is at the 2002 lows?! like, it was in the mid-$30s (as it is now) in 1998?! I thought XOM got down to a P/E of 9 back in the 2008 dip. And it looks like my memory is about right. That was around the time that Apple was in 2nd place fighting for first for market cap, and with AAPL taking a dip, I used that as a worst case, though probably the 11 or 12 XOM had just before then. AAPL dipped below 13, but it might have made it a hair below 10. But hey, now you can easily check, approximately. I think the data is adjusted for dividends, so it's not perfect when looking back far. I bookmark this site for the times I want to see a graph of historic P/E ratios. And it looks like they've added more data, so things go back further now. bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=True&insttype=&symb=xom&x=0&y=0&time=20&startdate=1%2F15%2F2008&enddate=5%2F18%2F2012&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=8388608&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=128&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 24, 2020 13:12:13 GMT -8
I let go another tranch of AAPL on this spike, have now lightened by 20% of shares held long term. My feeling is we will see lower, and all over the place each week for awhile. Now overweight cash but that's ok.
joined you in selling some AAPL, and some other stuff.... previously i thought this would be the bottom but changed my thinking in the past 2 days:
without being political (lest we incur the wrath of 4aapl) basically there are some hopes/plans by some people to open up the country ASAP (by Easter anyway)... so i would make the logical chain of events as follows: ....these measures, no matter how positive in their design, would lead to the 'steepening' of the curve, not 'flattening' ....there will be a second wave in april, possibly bigger and scarier than the first wave ....if we (as a country) need to do a shutdown 2.0 later, it would be more severe (italy scenario) ....i don't see how that doesn't tank the markets further ....AAPL won't be immune (pun intended)
i hope i'm wrong, as it's a grim forecast
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 24, 2020 13:15:15 GMT -8
4aapl - do you remember how low p/e ratios went for oil majors in the past 20 years? (particularly 2001-2003 and again 2008-2009) i see XOM at a p/e of 11 (was 10 this morning, shoulda snapped some).... and apparently the price is at the 2002 lows?! like, it was in the mid-$30s (as it is now) in 1998?! I thought XOM got down to a P/E of 9 back in the 2008 dip. And it looks like my memory is about right. That was around the time that Apple was in 2nd place fighting for first for market cap, and with AAPL taking a dip, I used that as a worst case, though probably the 11 or 12 XOM had just before then. AAPL dipped below 13, but it might have made it a hair below 10. But hey, now you can easily check, approximately. I think the data is adjusted for dividends, so it's not perfect when looking back far. I bookmark this site for the times I want to see a graph of historic P/E ratios. And it looks like they've added more data, so things go back further now. bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=True&insttype=&symb=xom&x=0&y=0&time=20&startdate=1%2F15%2F2008&enddate=5%2F18%2F2012&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=8388608&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=128&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8thanks for the link.... good resource!
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Post by pauls on Mar 24, 2020 13:18:37 GMT -8
I let go another tranch of AAPL on this spike, have now lightened by 20% of shares held long term. My feeling is we will see lower, and all over the place each week for awhile. Now overweight cash but that's ok.
joined you in selling some AAPL, and some other stuff.... previously i thought this would be the bottom but changed my thinking in the past 2 days:
without being political (lest we incur the wrath of 4aapl) basically there are some hopes/plans by some people to open up the country ASAP (by Easter anyway)... so i would make the logical chain of events as follows: ....these measures, no matter how positive in their design, would lead to the 'steepening' of the curve, not 'flattening' ....there will be a second wave in april, possibly bigger and scarier than the first wave ....if we (as a country) need to do a shutdown 2.0 later, it would be more severe (italy scenario) ....i don't see how that doesn't tank the markets further ....AAPL won't be immune (pun intended)
i hope i'm wrong, as it's a grim forecast I imagine any date by any hopeful source to be revised outward. Two weeks out who knows what NYC looks like. There will be others just peaking then (at best). Agreed, no politics, just my sense of this mess. On the other hand, we will see some flattening in places, and general sense of what has worked so far.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 24, 2020 13:30:20 GMT -8
I let go another tranch of AAPL on this spike, have now lightened by 20% of shares held long term. My feeling is we will see lower, and all over the place each week for awhile. Now overweight cash but that's ok. joined you in selling some AAPL, and some other stuff.... previously i thought this would be the bottom but changed my thinking in the past 2 days:
without being political (lest we incur the wrath of 4aapl) basically there are some hopes/plans by some people to open up the country ASAP (by Easter anyway)... so i would make the logical chain of events as follows: ....these measures, no matter how positive in their design, would lead to the 'steepening' of the curve, not 'flattening' ....there will be a second wave in april, possibly bigger and scarier than the first wave ....if we (as a country) need to do a shutdown 2.0 later, it would be more severe (italy scenario) ....i don't see how that doesn't tank the markets further ....AAPL won't be immune (pun intended) i hope i'm wrong, as it's a grim forecast I like the theory, but in this timeframe of extreme (sure, why not) moves in both directions, it seems like worrying about the aftermath of a timeframe nearly 3 weeks out is possibly a little early. If really thinking short term, it's a day by day thing. One way to do it, which some here are, is to make purchases that you'd be happy to hold for years, but then sell out in days if it works out. There's risk of it not dipping down again, but sometimes that's a risk worth taking, especially if holding on long term to the majority of a position or portfolio. Things are changing day by day, and there's plenty of ways for the country to mess up, whereas it seems unlikely that everything will go perfectly and no mistakes will be made. And that's at all levels, both various levels of government, but down to towns, families, and individuals. We'll see. Though I agree that currently it seems like there would be another surge if post-Easter people suddenly were completely free to roam everywhere. But, if that happened, it should take at least 2-3 weeks for levels to really boost up, so we're talking 5-6 weeks from now. I expect there to be many buying and selling opportunities between now and then, and that I will miss most of them. Kids are on video conferences with their classmates. Some purchases (MacBook) have already been made. In our household, while we have a couple iPads and a couple older Macs, it turns out we "only" have 4 Macs recent enough to run all of the tools they need, which makes it hard for all 5 of us to be on at the same time. First world problems and all that, and yet if the kids are going to be home for weeks to months, it does become a problem.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 24, 2020 13:33:52 GMT -8
joined you in selling some AAPL, and some other stuff.... previously i thought this would be the bottom but changed my thinking in the past 2 days:
...
i hope i'm wrong, as it's a grim forecast I imagine any date by any hopeful source to be revised outward. Two weeks out who knows what NYC looks like. There will be others just peaking then (at best). Agreed, no politics, just my sense of this mess. On the other hand, we will see some flattening in places, and general sense of what has worked so far.
i was feeling hunky-dory BTFD'ing all the way through last week (including friday).... particularly liked the positive news from china & korea, was also hoping the $2t stimulus package will help
but over the weekend Italy and NYC combo really hit it and turned me into a pessimist
maybe that will be contrarian indicator for y'all dip buyers out there!
(to be fair, i'm still quite a bit long, but no longer levered and have a bit of cash... used today's bounce for that)
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Post by silkstone on Mar 24, 2020 14:20:07 GMT -8
I let go another tranch of AAPL on this spike, have now lightened by 20% of shares held long term. My feeling is we will see lower, and all over the place each week for awhile. Now overweight cash but that's ok.
joined you in selling some AAPL, and some other stuff.... previously i thought this would be the bottom but changed my thinking in the past 2 days:
without being political (lest we incur the wrath of 4aapl) basically there are some hopes/plans by some people to open up the country ASAP (by Easter anyway)... so i would make the logical chain of events as follows: ....these measures, no matter how positive in their design, would lead to the 'steepening' of the curve, not 'flattening' ....there will be a second wave in april, possibly bigger and scarier than the first wave ....if we (as a country) need to do a shutdown 2.0 later, it would be more severe (italy scenario) ....i don't see how that doesn't tank the markets further ....AAPL won't be immune (pun intended)
i hope i'm wrong, as it's a grim forecast Yep, I agree. Until people are going back to work I’m thinking we are still in a downtrend with a ways to go. I’m not as big a risk taker as I used to be. Cases are rising and there is still plenty of fear out there. Confidence is low. While the feds still have some plausible denial at this point, for example: “who could have ever imagined it would be this bad” ? Any ignoring of the medical experts in an attempt to restart the economy too soon, which results in unnecessary deaths, will create a situation where those individual/s will be held accountable by the American people imo. Not only will this cause the markets and Apple stock to crater, it would completely strip away any confidence we have regained at that point and will set the economy back further than where we started imo. I’m not an expert by any means but like most of you, I’ve been thru some things.
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Post by rezonate on Mar 24, 2020 17:13:01 GMT -8
Why did Apple, Inc. have a stockpile of 9 million masks? And what other stockpiles might they have? Asking for a friend.
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Post by hledgard on Mar 24, 2020 18:18:36 GMT -8
The big gain today may not last. The death rate in the US seems to be creeping up towards 2%.
I am not sure one can flatten the infection curve much, as I think the cat is out of the bag. It is possible most people have already been exposed. The next 7 days will reveal much.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Mar 24, 2020 18:37:36 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 24, 2020 20:11:12 GMT -8
Why did Apple, Inc. have a stockpile of 9 million masks? And what other stockpiles might they have? Asking for a friend. Apple, like many other Bay Area companies, has thought a bit about this. Being in earthquake country, along with the power outages in the early 2000's, they've planned in a variety of ways, with generators and supplies. At the time I was there, and on the CERT program, they aimed to have supplies for all working there, for 7 days. A lot more people work there now, and a lot more people work for Apple worldwide now. In a really big disaster, with collapsed buildings, everyone would need one. Then it's just how many changes per day, and how many days. 9M still seems huge, but that gets you in the right direction.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 24, 2020 21:24:02 GMT -8
The big gain today may not last. The death rate in the US seems to be creeping up towards 2%.I am not sure one can flatten the infection curve much, as I think the cat is out of the bag. It is possible most people have already been exposed. The next 7 days will reveal much. And yet, only 2 short days ago, you posted this: ============= Mar 22, 2020 at 6:39pm Post by hledgard on Mar 22, 2020 at 6:39pm I am with JD all the way.
The virus issue is way, way overblown, and the “cure” is much, much worse than the problem. Many millions of people are hurt by the restrictions etc. Some families may be wiped out. For what ?
For 500 deaths in the US? 9,000 have died from car accidents since January 1. Close the roads?
There is a real issue of course. But there is no exponential growth at all, especially in number of deaths.
============= Have you changed your mind about the coronavirus because the deaths in the U.S. have risen to 782(+56%) in two days?
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Mar 24, 2020 21:34:27 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Mar 25, 2020 6:15:14 GMT -8
The big gain today may not last. The death rate in the US seems to be creeping up towards 2%.I am not sure one can flatten the infection curve much, as I think the cat is out of the bag. It is possible most people have already been exposed. The next 7 days will reveal much. And yet, only 2 short days ago, you posted this: ============= Mar 22, 2020 at 6:39pm Post by hledgard on Mar 22, 2020 at 6:39pm I am with JD all the way.
The virus issue is way, way overblown, and the “cure” is much, much worse than the problem. Many millions of people are hurt by the restrictions etc. Some families may be wiped out. For what ?
For 500 deaths in the US? 9,000 have died from car accidents since January 1. Close the roads?
There is a real issue of course. But there is no exponential growth at all, especially in number of deaths.
============= Have you changed your mind about the coronavirus because the deaths in the U.S. have risen to 782(+56%) in two days? Thanks Luckychoices. You are correct. I may be wrong. There sure is a problem. The real issue may be providing health care to those who get sick. Still do not believe shutting down the country is any answer. Millions of people are being hurt, and money for other important issues (e.g. infrastructure, research, etc.) will suffer.
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ems
Member
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Post by ems on Mar 25, 2020 9:59:15 GMT -8
There is enough movement in both that that could work, definitely. It limits the up/downside some but you could set that to capture whatever your personal risk tolerance is. ;-) Personally I am not much of a fan of TSLA at these prices, and in general it seems to defy logic so there's a lot of chaos around those price movements. You can win big on it if you have the stomach for the suspense. Given the volatilty, I wonder what you think of a strangle on Apple or TSLA right now. I am thinking short term say July for expiration.
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 25, 2020 10:45:34 GMT -8
The big gain today may not last. The death rate in the US seems to be creeping up towards 2%. I am not sure one can flatten the infection curve much, as I think the cat is out of the bag. It is possible most people have already been exposed. The next 7 days will reveal much. My daily chart of Minnesota numbersMy daily chart of World numbers
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 25, 2020 11:14:08 GMT -8
And yet, only 2 short days ago, you posted this: ============= Mar 22, 2020 at 6:39pm Post by hledgard on Mar 22, 2020 at 6:39pm I am with JD all the way.
The virus issue is way, way overblown, and the “cure” is much, much worse than the problem. Many millions of people are hurt by the restrictions etc. Some families may be wiped out. For what ?
For 500 deaths in the US? 9,000 have died from car accidents since January 1. Close the roads?
There is a real issue of course. But there is no exponential growth at all, especially in number of deaths.
============= Have you changed your mind about the coronavirus because the deaths in the U.S. have risen to 782(+56%) in two days? Thanks Luckychoices. You are correct. I may be wrong. There sure is a problem. There sure is a problem. The real issue may be providing health care to those who get sick. Providing heath care to those who are sick with coronavirus is, obviously, *extremely* important. But a critical first step of that action is to *immediately* separate individuals with coronavirus from those who are not infected, thus removing the opportunity for the virus to further spread. For someone infected with coronavirus who is asymptomatic, and doesn't even yet know they're sick, how can that happen? Answer? It can't. This is why the actions, taken by many state governors, ordering people in the state to self-quarantine and shelter-in-place is so vital. Still do not believe shutting down the country is any answer. Millions of people are being hurt, and money for other important issues (e.g. infrastructure, research, etc.) will suffer. When a lethal virus like coronavirus can spread so rapidly, even by persons who are infected but asymptomatic, eliminating contact between the infected and the none-infected is the *only* answer. The economy can, and will, survive long term. That can't be said about many people, including perhaps us or family members, who get infected by coronavirus. I disagree with those who state that the American economy is more important than American lives.
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