Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Mar 25, 2020 2:50:25 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Mar 25, 2020 3:06:14 GMT -8
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Post by northstar on Mar 25, 2020 7:22:50 GMT -8
I used to be self- conscious using my Watch to pay for things in my semi-rural neighbourhood... Now I’m happy to use it every chance I get!
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Post by silkstone on Mar 25, 2020 8:40:06 GMT -8
I used to be self- conscious using my Watch to pay for things in my semi-rural neighbourhood... Now I’m happy to use it every chance I get! Yes, the current environment is making all touchless transactions look very smart. I need to get on that train 🚂
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 25, 2020 9:20:41 GMT -8
I used to be self- conscious using my Watch to pay for things in my semi-rural neighbourhood... Now I’m happy to use it every chance I get! Yes, the current environment is making all touchless transactions look very smart. I need to get on that train 🚂 When traveling to Europe just after getting my iPhone 11, and having signed up for the Apple card, it was pretty cool to do all of the touches transactions through it. And then I'd get the message on the iPhone of the transaction, including conversion, as soon as I had internet access. But likewise, waving a chip based credit card above the touchpad worked too. Not all of the stores have touchless transactions here, but I try to remember to use it when it's available. I ventured into Raleys yesterday after a bank drop-off. Things were pretty quiet, and they now had all produce including 15 lbs bags of potatoes. Eggs, chicken, pasta, and TP were still gone or very close, but everything else was well stocked, including the ice cream selection (the whole moose tracks craving my parents had...I'm trying to do some spot checks, since once things are consistently available, that is one more thing that will help calm the masses). Anyways, I bought 2 boxes of pasta (I held myself back from buying all 8 of that shape, since while we need to restock our pantry a little, I'm sure others are looking), using the iPhone touchless transaction, though I might have taken my leather gloves off to put in my shopper ID number. Nice to see AAPL and the market up a little now. It's good to see stimulus/relief get through, though personally to help bring everyone together (we're all in this. FWIW, we saw the Duffields separately in Raleys over the last couple days, one of the billionaire families in town) I would have liked to see everyone get the same amount since that would make things easier, help show that we are united, and help spread the money the most, since different echelons would buy different things with the money. I'd just put the simple and unenforced statement of "spend this money in the next 45 days". But that could easily be a dividing issue instead of a uniting one, within the public and the government, and I wouldn't have wanted that to slow things down. The recovery is going to be a process, but the first step is to quell the panic, so that people can start to look beyond the immediate needs, whether that is ventilators and health care workers to run them, or TP. While the financial help is a good start, the biggie is getting everyone on board to do their part to slow down the transmission, and then see a change in the number of cases. Things are ugly now. But change in the positive direction will give hope and start to clear the fog of the future.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 25, 2020 11:22:05 GMT -8
i was feeling hunky-dory BTFD'ing all the way through last week (including friday).... particularly liked the positive news from china & korea, was also hoping the $2t stimulus package will help
but over the weekend Italy and NYC combo really hit it and turned me into a pessimist maybe that will be contrarian indicator for y'all dip buyers out there!
(to be fair, i'm still quite a bit long, but no longer levered and have a bit of cash... used today's bounce for that)
I expect there to be many buying and selling opportunities between now and then, and that I will miss most of them. I think we are going to continue seeing huge swings, and there is a lot of potentially ugly data out there that will hit us, including infection rates here in the US. So I sold the short term positions I just made on Friday, for +5.5% on the AAPL shares, and +9.8% on the SPY shares. (EDIT: Wow, I was lucky there. My sales were at 255.6 and 254.24 for AAPL and SPY, with around an hour to go. Both dropped in the last bit of the trading day. Lots of volatility out there!) While I don't recommend short term trading, just as I don't recommend margin, I'm doing both at the moment. No crazy huge risks, and only positions that I would be happy to own, thus the downside is selling out too early (just these short term positions, I still hold my longs) and missing some of that extra personal-stimulus money. I'll likely continue to play this a bit, with the hopes of also placing some long term positions once this all turns the corner. Careful out there, both with isolating, but also with finances.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 25, 2020 12:31:55 GMT -8
Why did Apple, Inc. have a stockpile of 9 million masks? And what other stockpiles might they have? Asking for a friend. Apple, like many other Bay Area companies, has thought a bit about this. Being in earthquake country, along with the power outages in the early 2000's, they've planned in a variety of ways, with generators and supplies. At the time I was there, and on the CERT program, they aimed to have supplies for all working there, for 7 days. A lot more people work there now, and a lot more people work for Apple worldwide now. In a really big disaster, with collapsed buildings, everyone would need one. Then it's just how many changes per day, and how many days. 9M still seems huge, but that gets you in the right direction. Looks like these aren't from supplies on hand. Tim is now saying 10M to the US, and millions more to other countries, saying that they are sourcing them. With Chinese factories having switched over to these, I bet Apple just said they would be next in line, and would buy them by the plane load. Cut out the middleman cost and delay, and Apple can buy big, getting pricing that makes it much better to donated badly needed PPE, instead of just money to try to buy them. Nice work Apple! finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-donate-10m-face-masks-194315731.html
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 25, 2020 13:16:11 GMT -8
I think we are going to continue seeing huge swings, and there is a lot of potentially ugly data out there that will hit us, including infection rates here in the US. Yes I’m sure those OMG EXPONENTIAL LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS infection rates will start any day now. 😐
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 25, 2020 13:48:39 GMT -8
I think we are going to continue seeing huge swings, and there is a lot of potentially ugly data out there that will hit us, including infection rates here in the US. Yes I’m sure those OMG EXPONENTIAL LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS infection rates will start any day now. 😐 It doesn't take crazy huge numbers of people dying in the street to scare the population or keep lots of businesses shut down. Doing the simple math, there's more than 5x new cases in the last week, so if deaths are a week delayed, that's nearly an extra 5k of people passing away. Halving that for gross inaccuracies and more people getting tested, a week from now are people going to feel better or worse, if there are 2,500 new deaths? While that might not be a number that matters much to the fate of the world or country, it's enough to keep people in fear or even panic mode. It seems likely that more things would be shut down, not less, unless the hot zones are clearly indicated, and other places have flattened or even stopped. Here, we're wondering what AAPL and the market will do in the future. My guess, while realizing that the market and the population isn't often logical, is that it will keep on bouncing around a lot until things start to look better. It's just a guess. But I don't think it takes mankind ending estimates to realize that people are still very jumpy due to panic or fear, and that a good probability guess is that there will continue to be huge swings. What are you seeing down in SoCal JD? Have the beach crowds died down a little? How's the whole tele-teaching thing going?
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 25, 2020 15:58:03 GMT -8
I think we are going to continue seeing huge swings, and there is a lot of potentially ugly data out there that will hit us, including infection rates here in the US. Yes I’m sure those OMG EXPONENTIAL LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS infection rates will start any day now. 😐
thanks for the much-needed sarcasm during these times! 🙄
(no, not really, obviously I think you shrugging off your fellow citizens' health and lives is callous at best)
but fine, i take your point of exponential infection rates not happening.... oh wait...
YOU WERE SAYING? 😠
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benoir
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Mar 25, 2020 18:34:12 GMT -8
I think we are going to continue seeing huge swings, and there is a lot of potentially ugly data out there that will hit us, including infection rates here in the US. Yes I’m sure those OMG EXPONENTIAL LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS infection rates will start any day now. 😐 Well, a quick look at any chart shows an exponential growth in the US. Pretending it away is not the solution. Hopefully that growth can be stemmed but it looks like the US will overtake Italy and China in the next few days. This commentary on the affect of US culture and the spread of the virus should be of concern... Coronavirus is spreading rapidly in the US. American culture might make it uniquely vulnerable
We are all fortunate Apple is in such a robust financial position - it should be able to ride this out for the duration of this pandemic (lets say 12months to be conservative) and the how ever long it takes for economies to recover.
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 25, 2020 19:54:08 GMT -8
Yes I’m sure those OMG EXPONENTIAL LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS infection rates will start any day now. 😐 Well, a quick look at any chart shows an exponential growth in the US. Pretending it away is not the solution. Hopefully that growth can be stemmed but it looks like the US will overtake Italy and China in the next few days.
remember that JD stuck his neck out as the only person to think there would be less than 1,000 deaths from the virus in the US: aaplfinance.proboards.com/thread/2684/coronavirus-prediction-thread-poll-vote
we just passed 1k deaths today, a number that's sure to increase several-fold...
i picked the <12.5k deaths version, and i still hope it can be contained to that (through flattening the curve) but it's looking more grim now
really said, this could have been avoided with better testing and a more serious response
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crispin
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KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Mar 25, 2020 20:25:08 GMT -8
My niece in Portland recently returned from a trip to Spain just before the travel ban. She was surprised at the complete lack of health questioning from customs and immigration when they landed in the US. In the last few days she has developed symptoms consistent with covid-19, but has been unable to get tested at the hospitals in the city who say they don't have supplies needed. Incredibly they said to try again later. Something is seriously going wrong here.
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Mar 25, 2020 20:26:35 GMT -8
Well, a quick look at any chart shows an exponential growth in the US. Pretending it away is not the solution. Hopefully that growth can be stemmed but it looks like the US will overtake Italy and China in the next few days. remember that JD stuck his neck out as the only person to think there would be less than 1,000 deaths from the virus in the US: aaplfinance.proboards.com/thread/2684/coronavirus-prediction-thread-poll-votewe just passed 1k deaths today, a number that's sure to increase several-fold... i picked the <12.5k deaths version, and i still hope it can be contained to that (through flattening the curve) but it's looking more grim now really said, this could have been avoided with better testing and a more serious response the recent stream of consciousness that fell out of POTUS' mouth about getting back to work in 15 days and having full churches at Easter is a tragedy in the making - there is a significant population in the US that take his words verbatim
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benoir
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Mar 25, 2020 20:32:23 GMT -8
My niece in Portland recently returned from a trip to Spain just before the travel ban. She was surprised at the complete lack of health questioning from customs and immigration when they landed in the US. In the last few days she has developed symptoms consistent with covid-19, but has been unable to get tested at the hospitals in the city who say they don't have supplies needed. Incredibly they said to try again later. Something is seriously going wrong here. Almost the same situation here in AU - mixed messages, a lack of test kits, political fumbling - a clusterfuck in the making. Essentially comes down to a lack of preparedness and political ambivalence. When the Chinese were building those massive hospitals, only weeks ago, surely it should have raised eyebrows in certain circles. NZ seems to have a far better grasp of how to move forward.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 25, 2020 20:41:53 GMT -8
My niece in Portland recently returned from a trip to Spain just before the travel ban. She was surprised at the complete lack of health questioning from customs and immigration when they landed in the US. In the last few days she has developed symptoms consistent with covid-19, but has been unable to get tested at the hospitals in the city who say they don't have supplies needed. Incredibly they said to try again later. Something is seriously going wrong here.
sorry to hear! (the 'like' is just agreement, obviously, not the terrible situation your niece finds herself in.... hope she's young and will tough out whatever her ailment is, be it covid-19 or seasonal flu)
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Mar 25, 2020 20:57:50 GMT -8
My niece in Portland recently returned from a trip to Spain just before the travel ban. She was surprised at the complete lack of health questioning from customs and immigration when they landed in the US. In the last few days she has developed symptoms consistent with covid-19, but has been unable to get tested at the hospitals in the city who say they don't have supplies needed. Incredibly they said to try again later. Something is seriously going wrong here. Almost the same situation here in AU - mixed messages, a lack of test kits, political fumbling - a clusterfuck in the making. Essentially comes down to a lack of preparedness and political ambivalence. When the Chinese were building those massive hospitals, only weeks ago, surely it should have raised eyebrows in certain circles. NZ seems to have a far better grasp of how to move forward. We're in the first day of national month-long lockdown here in NZ. At this early stage I suspect the novelty factor is keeping everyone in good spirits, though that may wear thin as the weeks grind on. Only time will tell if it's successful at slowing or reversing the infection rate. Being a small island nation with competent leadership I think (and hope) we have a reasonably good chance.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Mar 25, 2020 21:04:19 GMT -8
My niece in Portland recently returned from a trip to Spain just before the travel ban. She was surprised at the complete lack of health questioning from customs and immigration when they landed in the US. In the last few days she has developed symptoms consistent with covid-19, but has been unable to get tested at the hospitals in the city who say they don't have supplies needed. Incredibly they said to try again later. Something is seriously going wrong here. sorry to hear! (the 'like' is just agreement, obviously, not the terrible situation your niece finds herself in.... hope she's young and will tough out whatever her ailment is, be it covid-19 or seasonal flu) Thanks, she's relatively young and in overall good health so, if confirmed, I'm hoping she'd be able to ride it out. Extremely disconcerting though, that with her travel history and symptoms she's being turned away for testing.
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Mar 25, 2020 21:20:47 GMT -8
Almost the same situation here in AU - mixed messages, a lack of test kits, political fumbling - a clusterfuck in the making. Essentially comes down to a lack of preparedness and political ambivalence. When the Chinese were building those massive hospitals, only weeks ago, surely it should have raised eyebrows in certain circles. NZ seems to have a far better grasp of how to move forward. We're in the first day of national month-long lockdown here in NZ. At this early stage I suspect the novelty factor is keeping everyone in good spirits, though that may wear thin as the weeks grind on. Only time will tell if it's successful at slowing or reversing the infection rate. Being a small island nation with competent leadership I think (and hope) we have a reasonably good chance. I think the concept of a month long shut down is also good for allowing the population to digest what is going on. It is all terribly distracting and I know my productivity has fallen off a cliff. Yes competent leadership, clear messaging and a decent human being in charge of NZ. The snow still sucks though!!
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Mar 25, 2020 21:56:30 GMT -8
Does anyone know what time the unemployment claims numbers are released tomorrow? Seems like that will be a market-moving event.
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Post by pauls on Mar 25, 2020 22:06:25 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 26, 2020 17:17:59 GMT -8
Well, a quick look at any chart shows an exponential growth in the US. Pretending it away is not the solution. Hopefully that growth can be stemmed but it looks like the US will overtake Italy and China in the next few days. remember that JD stuck his neck out as the only person to think there would be less than 1,000 deaths from the virus in the US: aaplfinance.proboards.com/thread/2684/coronavirus-prediction-thread-poll-votewe just passed 1k deaths today, a number that's sure to increase several-fold... i picked the <12.5k deaths version, and i still hope it can be contained to that (through flattening the curve) but it's looking more grim now really said, this could have been avoided with better testing and a more serious response Meanwhile, 23,000 flu deaths this season. A bad season is like 60,000 deaths. Just some perspective. I just don't know what numbers you want to compare this to..?
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 26, 2020 20:43:03 GMT -8
Meanwhile, 23,000 flu deaths this season. A bad season is like 60,000 deaths. Just some perspective. I just don't know what numbers you want to compare this to..?
Seasonal flu - R naught: 1.3 - Mortality rate: 0.1%
COVID-19 - R naught: 2 - Mortality rate: 4.5% (but could be as low as 0.6% in South Korea... over 1% in the US right now)
also... we have a fucking vaccine for the flu and we don't for COVID-19, how hard is it to understand that?! The R-naught for the seasonal flu is mitigated by the vaccine
So we have a combo: 1. covid is more contagious than seasonal flu, and because we don't have a vaccine MUCH more contagious (over 50% population could eventually get it unless social distancing and similar measures are practiced) 2. covid is ~10x as deadly, but perhaps as much as 30x-40x as deadly as the seasonal flu
if NO social distancing measures are put in place it will just grow exponentially (double every few days) until 50%-100% population infected
if you then apply 1% mortality, that's 1.75m-3.5m people in the US...
but even if social distancing and other containment, let's say "only" 5k-10k deaths... those are all in addition to seasonal flu!
like, did you say "no big deal" after 9/11 because many more people die from flu /diabetes/ car accidents/ whatever?
SMH
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