Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Mar 27, 2020 2:41:49 GMT -8
Good morning. It’s Friday. Let’s make it count.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Mar 27, 2020 3:36:17 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Mar 27, 2020 7:07:48 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 27, 2020 7:18:50 GMT -8
That's the thing to remember, that in the case of this virus, we're all in this together. No country is immune. In fact, in some aspects it sounds like some of the China factories that are basically their own cities are the best way to deal with this, as far as limiting interaction with people outside of the bubble. Feed and house the workers, and as long as you don't bring in the virus and have issues with the close proximity of everyone, you can keep on churning if you have everything you need. OTOH, you need all of the parts, no matter where they are made. It doesn't matter much if you are globally diversified, but then both suppliers of a key part (screens?) are made in the same country, and then both hit at the same time. Going non-tech, think of the tsunami in Japan a few years back, which took out production of certain car parts, maybe CV joints. They were used across the globe and across manufacturers, and so pretty quickly assembly lines in the US, Canada, and Mexico had to shut down. And it wasn't just Honda or Toyota, but also affected Ford and possibly even GM. Ideally there are self-contained end-to-end sites, scattered about the globe. Bring in some raw materials, get out product. The complete black box, possibly even fully automated. But it's not that easy, especially on cutting-edge products, and each duplicate site has overhead. With that sort of thinking, it would be great to have a whole duplicate supply and assembly line in diverse locations while still keeping shipping reasonable. China/India/Mexico wouldn't be bad, though I'd love to see things made in the US if it makes sense, which it could as more low-tech portions of the line get automated.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 27, 2020 8:23:16 GMT -8
On the whole "multiple sources" front, there's the rare earth metals and things like super-magnets. Previous reads have said that at least some rare-earth metals aren't actually that rare, but they aren't mined that much. This one is talking about Cesium (It's rare enough that I always get the "Cesium's strange, when you're a stranger" lyric play off the Who song in my mind), and how China owns the 3 mines in the world, but some new bores in Canada came across it. While the title was made more provocative, the article isn't, and gets a little boring. Still, good to realize that sometimes these things are a cross between a game of Catan or a week in Jesse Livermore's life from "Memoirs of a Stock Operator", where one can still corner the market. finance.yahoo.com/news/america-shortage-metal-keeps-trump-000000293.htmlA 3% pullback for AAPL and the market isn't the level some would expect after a 3 day bump given the recent volatility. Unless a corner is turned, I'm more of the mindset of WW that things will turn a bit more negative, today and Monday. To limit risk, I would think people would want to lighten their load before going into the weekend . OTOH, these are strange times, and maybe the probability is only 55/45.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Mar 27, 2020 8:48:42 GMT -8
(It's rare enough that I always get the "Cesium's strange, when you're a stranger" lyric play off the Who song in my mind) Perhaps you meant The Doors?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,630
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 27, 2020 9:03:47 GMT -8
(It's rare enough that I always get the "Cesium's strange, when you're a stranger" lyric play off the Who song in my mind) Perhaps you meant The Doors? I guess so Both were really before my time, but just reading the lyrics to the tune really made it stick. www.cs.rochester.edu/users/faculty/nelson/cesium/cesium_songs.html#Cesium's-Strange 31 cesium songs, and now I'm going to have to read through Hotel Cesium. Maybe it's the last point here that got so many rewrites written, in their own puny way:
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,630
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 27, 2020 9:29:59 GMT -8
While he admits that the algo doesn't know reason based fear, and I don't like that his returns off a 25% decline were based on going to the next peak instead of something more solid like a full recovery, or recovery -5% or +10%, it had some interesting ideas, including the general idea to step in but split up purchases: My ‘greed-oriented’ algorithm is telling me to buy stocks
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Mar 27, 2020 9:30:35 GMT -8
Perhaps you meant The Doors? I guess so Both were really before my time, but just reading the lyrics to the tune really made it stick Well, it was 53 years ago, so it takes a real codger to remember it . I was 16.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,630
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 27, 2020 9:43:14 GMT -8
I guess so Both were really before my time, but just reading the lyrics to the tune really made it stick Well, it was 43 years ago, so it takes a real codger to remember it . I was 16. Oh yea, I remember it now. They sang it to me at my 1 year old birthday party. Not really the right song to go with a choo choo train birthday cake, but strange songs go with strangely colored coconut coatings. It's the end of the 2nd week of home-schooling here. Time to go watch the virtual tour of a national park, hopefully without any charging buffalos. My wife and I are watching Morning Show, since my iPhone prodded me that I had to get or lose my free 12 month subscription. It's different than the safe shows my original description reading made me think they all were when Apple first announced them. Part of my grinning last night when they exited the bar was just that Apple wasn't only taking the safe route, nor only hitting the tough topics. IMO their website isn't set up the best to see all the shows and episodes, and there might have been a little edit detail when "driving" around in the car (we've seen a car-on-trailer setup in SF, and at Universal), it really is put together well, though rivaling big-ticket movies with the number of characters. At least with this one, they didn't pick the easier shows of a game show, reality, small sitcom, or whatnot. Go big or go home!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 27, 2020 9:49:47 GMT -8
That's the thing to remember, that in the case of this virus, we're all in this together. No country is immune. In fact, in some aspects it sounds like some of the China factories that are basically their own cities are the best way to deal with this, as far as limiting interaction with people outside of the bubble. Feed and house the workers, and as long as you don't bring in the virus and have issues with the close proximity of everyone, you can keep on churning if you have everything you need. OTOH, you need all of the parts, no matter where they are made. It doesn't matter much if you are globally diversified, but then both suppliers of a key part (screens?) are made in the same country, and then both hit at the same time. Going non-tech, think of the tsunami in Japan a few years back, which took out production of certain car parts, maybe CV joints. They were used across the globe and across manufacturers, and so pretty quickly assembly lines in the US, Canada, and Mexico had to shut down. And it wasn't just Honda or Toyota, but also affected Ford and possibly even GM. Ideally there are self-contained end-to-end sites, scattered about the globe. Bring in some raw materials, get out product. The complete black box, possibly even fully automated. But it's not that easy, especially on cutting-edge products, and each duplicate site has overhead. With that sort of thinking, it would be great to have a whole duplicate supply and assembly line in diverse locations while still keeping shipping reasonable. China/India/Mexico wouldn't be bad, though I'd love to see things made in the US if it makes sense, which it could as more low-tech portions of the line get automated. OK Boomers!
Going to have to disagree on China. China made this crisis a magnitude worse via its closed commie government keeping WHO out in the early days and it's general culture of secrecy (and many of its people eating weird shit). Classic Chernobyl-like paradox of making things worse by trying to coverup the problem for PR reasons. (for those nuanced-impaired readers, I still think this is overblown in the US). Why would we (Apple, US, world at large) ever trust these bozos again?
I really don't think we can trust the numbers coming out of China rn. I think this crisis is a strong argument against globalism, and certainly against the dense urban living that many of the sustainability/eco religion are arguing for (8 million people on an island in NY, what could go wrong?). At the very minimum, this situation calls for supply chain redundancy. Did any of you know you had been popping China-sourced chemicals in your ibuprofen before this virus fallout? I sure as hell didn't.
And yeah, there's a reason we have no rare earth mines in the US, the same eco religious types yelling "NIMBY!". The Prius and Tesla-driving ( smug alert!) types apparently see no dissonance in being against rare earth mining but demanding we all drive electric cars. I've been a shareholder of rare earths miner Lynas Corp for some time, and they are constantly being attacked by the eco warriors. Turns out it's really messy digging for rare earths. Lots of waste you have to dump. So LYSCF has been a dog. But still the Tesla drivers think they are saving us all from the one essential element for life: Carbon. There actually is a rare-earth mine in California that I would like to visit sometime after the Wuhan Bat Soup Flu™ subsides. But of course California eco warriors killed it. So now it's mostly a research facility. The US has abundant natural resources that the left wants to make exploiting a sin, after decades of warning us about the perils of foreign reliance on energy. Man those RDS and XOM dividends looking nice in these zero rate times. But yeah, with the holy jihad against our most abundant natural resource, and the Russians and the Saudi's saying "hold my beer" in the self-immolation pageant, where does the smart money go?
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 27, 2020 12:38:06 GMT -8
This may not apply to any of you young whippersnappers on AFB but I was certainly glad to hear of it. The closing share price of AAPL on 12/31/19 of $293.69 boosted my 2020 RMD to 90% greater than my 2019 RMD so I was contemplating having to sell many, many more shares at a substantially lower share price to satisfy my 2020 RMD. Now it seems that we folks who are older than dirt can delay our 2020 RMD's. That's great news. Not only can I hold on to those shares a little longer and benefit from the dividend, but it will give AAPL time to return to its previous levels. Also, for those under 59 1/2, you can take an early distribution to pay for a hardship such as job loss. A Hidden Benefit of the Coronavirus Stimulus Bill: You Can Wait to Take Your RMDLegislation is expected to waive required minimum distributions from retirement savings accounts for 2020.
The coronavirus stimulus package, known as the CARES Act, working its way through Congress is expected to waive required minimum distributions (RMDs) from retirement savings accounts for 2020, granting a reprieve for retirees age 70½ and older who might otherwise be required to sell low and take distributions just when the stock market has nosedived in recent weeks.
The bill also allows people younger than 59½ to take an early distribution, up to $100,000, from a traditional IRA to pay for a coronavirus-related hardship, such as a job loss. The early distribution is penalty-free, though not necessarily tax-free. The tax bill can be avoided if the money is returned to the IRA in three years; if not, the taxes can be spread out over three years beginning in 2020. Distributions are taxed as ordinary income.
With the RMD waiver, retirees who can afford to skip their 2020 distribution can now leave that money an extra year in an individual retirement account or a defined contribution employer’s savings plan, such as a 401(k) or 403(b), to recover without penalty. “That’s a huge relief for people who would otherwise be taxed on a value that has vanished,” says Ed Slott, founder of IRAhelp.com.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 27, 2020 13:14:50 GMT -8
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Post by aaplcrazie on Mar 27, 2020 13:15:47 GMT -8
The Doors - People are Strange
People are strange when you're a stranger Faces look ugly when you're alone Women seem wicked when you're unwanted Streets are uneven when you're down When you're strange Faces come out of the rain When you're strange No one remembers your name When you're strange When you're strange When you're strange People are strange when you're a stranger Faces look ugly when you're alone Women seem wicked when you're unwanted Streets are uneven when you're down When you're strange Faces come out of the rain When you're strange No one remembers your name When you're strange When you're strange When you're strange When you're strange Faces come out of the rain When you're strange No one remembers your name When you're strange When you're strange When you're strange
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Post by hledgard on Mar 27, 2020 14:24:37 GMT -8
Great find LuckyChoices ! Thanks for posting the link !
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Post by nwjade on Mar 27, 2020 15:10:32 GMT -8
This may not apply to any of you young whippersnappers on AFB but I was certainly glad to hear of it. The closing share price of AAPL on 12/31/19 of $293.69 boosted my 2020 RMD to 90% greater than my 2019 RMD so I was contemplating having to sell many, many more shares at a substantially lower share price to satisfy my 2020 RMD. Now it seems that we folks who are older than dirt can delay our 2020 RMD's. That's great news. Not only can I hold on to those shares a little longer and benefit from the dividend, but it will give AAPL time to return to its previous levels. Also, for those under 59 1/2, you can take an early distribution to pay for a hardship such as job loss. A Hidden Benefit of the Coronavirus Stimulus Bill: You Can Wait to Take Your RMDLegislation is expected to waive required minimum distributions from retirement savings accounts for 2020.
The coronavirus stimulus package, known as the CARES Act, working its way through Congress is expected to waive required minimum distributions (RMDs) from retirement savings accounts for 2020, granting a reprieve for retirees age 70½ and older who might otherwise be required to sell low and take distributions just when the stock market has nosedived in recent weeks.
The bill also allows people younger than 59½ to take an early distribution, up to $100,000, from a traditional IRA to pay for a coronavirus-related hardship, such as a job loss. The early distribution is penalty-free, though not necessarily tax-free. The tax bill can be avoided if the money is returned to the IRA in three years; if not, the taxes can be spread out over three years beginning in 2020. Distributions are taxed as ordinary income.
With the RMD waiver, retirees who can afford to skip their 2020 distribution can now leave that money an extra year in an individual retirement account or a defined contribution employer’s savings plan, such as a 401(k) or 403(b), to recover without penalty. “That’s a huge relief for people who would otherwise be taxed on a value that has vanished,” says Ed Slott, founder of IRAhelp.com.Another article is stating you need to be directly affected by covid-19....
To qualify for these provisions, individuals need to fall into one of two main categories: You, your spouse or a dependent is diagnosed with COVID-19 You experience adverse financial consequences as a result of being quarantined, furloughed, laid off, having work hours reduced, being unable to work due to lack of child care or closures related to the coronavirus pandemic.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 27, 2020 20:12:38 GMT -8
This may not apply to any of you young whippersnappers on AFB but I was certainly glad to hear of it. The closing share price of AAPL on 12/31/19 of $293.69 boosted my 2020 RMD to 90% greater than my 2019 RMD so I was contemplating having to sell many, many more shares at a substantially lower share price to satisfy my 2020 RMD. Now it seems that we folks who are older than dirt can delay our 2020 RMD's. That's great news. Not only can I hold on to those shares a little longer and benefit from the dividend, but it will give AAPL time to return to its previous levels. Also, for those under 59 1/2, you can take an early distribution to pay for a hardship such as job loss. A Hidden Benefit of the Coronavirus Stimulus Bill: You Can Wait to Take Your RMDLegislation is expected to waive required minimum distributions from retirement savings accounts for 2020.
The coronavirus stimulus package, known as the CARES Act, working its way through Congress is expected to waive required minimum distributions (RMDs) from retirement savings accounts for 2020, granting a reprieve for retirees age 70½ and older who might otherwise be required to sell low and take distributions just when the stock market has nosedived in recent weeks.
The bill also allows people younger than 59½ to take an early distribution, up to $100,000, from a traditional IRA to pay for a coronavirus-related hardship, such as a job loss. The early distribution is penalty-free, though not necessarily tax-free. The tax bill can be avoided if the money is returned to the IRA in three years; if not, the taxes can be spread out over three years beginning in 2020. Distributions are taxed as ordinary income.
With the RMD waiver, retirees who can afford to skip their 2020 distribution can now leave that money an extra year in an individual retirement account or a defined contribution employer’s savings plan, such as a 401(k) or 403(b), to recover without penalty. “That’s a huge relief for people who would otherwise be taxed on a value that has vanished,” says Ed Slott, founder of IRAhelp.com.Another article is stating you need to be directly affected by covid-19.... To qualify for these provisions, individuals need to fall into one of two main categories: You, your spouse or a dependent is diagnosed with COVID-19 You experience adverse financial consequences as a result of being quarantined, furloughed, laid off, having work hours reduced, being unable to work due to lack of child care or closures related to the coronavirus pandemic. Thanks for posting the information, nwjade, I hadn't heard about that. As near as I can tell from reading that a couple of times and also a different article, I believe the coronavirus link is only required for the 401K or IRA withdrawal, not for postponing the 2020 RMD. That's the way I read it anyway. I'm sure more information will be coming out now that the bill has been passed and signed.
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