chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Mar 28, 2020 6:45:22 GMT -8
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Post by socal Film Composer on Mar 28, 2020 8:21:45 GMT -8
A good week for AAPL - there are various folks who think we might re-test the market low - which would be perfectly plausible, as the headlines begin to pile up - but in terms of information in the market - the week prior to this one, seemed to be the height of fear and uncertainty - in terms of the short term - esp. preceding the Govt. relief bill.
I have NO idea where or when the bottom is - but I think we are close to it, and in the early stages of forming a bottom and base for the market. Most economists keep hammering home the fact, this "forced" recession came in the midst of a very healthy economy. The re-startup will have to follow the disease curve and public health safety. One thing for sure - closings will continue throughout most of April for the population dense areas -
However, tech companies, AAPL will thrive in the next 5-10 years. This I feel is a certainty. Stay safe and healthy all.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Mar 29, 2020 3:00:59 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Mar 29, 2020 9:01:16 GMT -8
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 29, 2020 10:49:12 GMT -8
paging our chief resident epidemiologist, JDSoCal any update on thinking jd? everyone still a deluded bunch of pessimists? what number would make you change your mind (currently 2x your upper limit of deaths) AFB covid deaths poll
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Post by hledgard on Mar 29, 2020 10:49:57 GMT -8
I don’t see AAPL going anywhere but down until the number of deaths per day goes down
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Post by pauls on Mar 29, 2020 10:51:16 GMT -8
7 day Prediction- Fauci fired by next weekend. 5-6 US cities on NY trajectory. Med supply chain story worse. Entire country stuck at home with time to follow the news for a change. Trouble. Week over week with this saga is almost unimaginable. If the peak is 4-5 weeks out...
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Post by pauls on Mar 29, 2020 10:55:42 GMT -8
paging our chief resident epidemiologist, JDSoCal any update on thinking jd? everyone still a deluded bunch of pessimists? what number would make you change your mind (currently 2x your upper limit of deaths) AFB covid deaths pollI chose <12,500 in the poll out of sheer optimism and faith. I need to adjust my optimism daily.
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Post by pauls on Mar 29, 2020 10:59:31 GMT -8
I don’t see AAPL going anywhere but down until the number of deaths per day goes down The newly infected curve will go down before the death curve. By then there will be much more clarity of data- other countries’ recoveries, broad testing, etc.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 29, 2020 11:04:52 GMT -8
paging our chief resident epidemiologist, JDSoCal any update on thinking jd? everyone still a deluded bunch of pessimists? what number would make you change your mind (currently 2x your upper limit of deaths) AFB covid deaths pollI chose <12,500 in the poll out of sheer optimism and faith. I need to adjust my optimism daily.
thanks! you must be the 3rd vote for that option... i agree, it was optimistic; i was more hopeful then
i don't see acceptance in large parts of society; lots of denial
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Post by pauls on Mar 29, 2020 11:10:32 GMT -8
I chose <12,500 in the poll out of sheer optimism and faith. I need to adjust my optimism daily.
thanks! you must be the 3rd vote for that option... i agree, it was optimistic; i was more hopeful then
i don't see acceptance in large parts of society; lots of denial
Me too. Week over week though it gets harder to deny.
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Post by tonitheboz on Mar 29, 2020 12:44:22 GMT -8
Hmmm in Italy we are already over 10k deaths with only 60 million people . The daily death rate is in the 6/700 range , and we are already in our 19 th day of quarantine.. The only reason to go out is for medicine or food needs It’s gonna be very tough and painful Btw I sold all my shares hoping to buy back at lower price time will tell Greetings and don’t underestimate the covid 19 God bless you
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 29, 2020 13:50:42 GMT -8
Hmmm in Italy we are already over 10k deaths with only 60 million people . The daily death rate is in the 6/700 range , and we are already in our 19 th day of quarantine.. The only reason to go out is for medicine or food needs It’s gonna be very tough and painful Btw I sold all my shares hoping to buy back at lower price time will tell Greetings and don’t underestimate the covid 19 God bless you Thanks tonitheboz In the quarantine, did people respect it right away, or were there many not following the rules as much as they should have, in retrospect to where things are now? Here in the US, I see a range of responses in areas that are only moderately affected so far. We only go out for groceries, which I do when the store opens and the store is quiet, but my wife has done mid-afternoon and has seen half the town. OTOH, my parents have hunkered down, going out for walking, but otherwise staying home. They are worried about it transmitting in stores, and have a pick-up order in a few days. Orders like that are about 10 days out. But then there are plenty in various areas that don't think it affects them at all, and still going about seeing people. The tough thing is not knowing how many people are spreading it without symptoms, either not having symptoms or just not having them yet. Any other perspective or advice that you have would be gladly welcome. Thanks
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Post by hledgard on Mar 29, 2020 14:18:15 GMT -8
I just go everywhere. Believe the cat is out of the bag. Believe I have been exposed, and everyone soon will be too.
Weren't we all exposed to the flu this Winter. Did anyone stay home because of it?
Supposedly about 17,000 die of the flu each year.
I pray that Covid-19 is no worse.
(I could be wrong on all this. Just my current take. Sweden has not shut it's country down.)
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Post by tonitheboz on Mar 29, 2020 14:19:53 GMT -8
Hmmm in Italy we are already over 10k deaths with only 60 million people . The daily death rate is in the 6/700 range , and we are already in our 19 th day of quarantine.. The only reason to go out is for medicine or food needs It’s gonna be very tough and painful Btw I sold all my shares hoping to buy back at lower price time will tell Greetings and don’t underestimate the covid 19 God bless you Thanks tonitheboz In the quarantine, did people respect it right away, or were there many not following the rules as much as they should have, in retrospect to where things are now? Here in the US, I see a range of responses in areas that are only moderately affected so far. We only go out for groceries, which I do when the store opens and the store is quiet, but my wife has done mid-afternoon and has seen half the town. OTOH, my parents have hunkered down, going out for walking, but otherwise staying home. They are worried about it transmitting in stores, and have a pick-up order in a few days. Orders like that are about 10 days out. But then there are plenty in various areas that don't think it affects them at all, and still going about seeing people. The tough thing is not knowing how many people are spreading it without symptoms, either not having symptoms or just not having them yet. Any other perspective or advice that you have would be gladly welcome. Thanks Well I live not so far from Venice in a thermal area people respect the rule as much as possible all store but pharmacy and food store are close , restaurants Are allowed to delivery service especially for the elderly people because they are the most in “danger” against the virus Mostly of the deaths come to people with over 80 yrs with previous pathology These days I don’t see any interest for people in spending money in tech items We are all concern in safety issue , the business is broken and the forecast rumor for comeback to normality in moved to the beginning of may (from 3 April) I wish everyone to be safe firstly and let’s hope this nightmare finish as soon as possible Ciao !!
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Post by pauls on Mar 29, 2020 14:33:13 GMT -8
I just go everywhere. Believe the cat is out of the bag. Believe I have been exposed, and everyone soon will be too. Weren't we all exposed to the flu this Winter. Did anyone stay home because of it? Supposedly about 17,000 die of the flu each year. I pray that Covid-19 is no worse. (I could be wrong on all this. Just my current take. Sweden has not shut it's country down.) Covid-19 is worse than the flu. That’s been established.
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Post by hyci004 on Mar 29, 2020 15:01:40 GMT -8
walterwhite’s post from Wednesday. “here's another link: www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-flu-heres-how-it-stacks-up-to-other-pandemics.htmlSeasonal flu - R naught: 1.3 - Mortality rate: 0.1% COVID-19 - R naught: 2 - Mortality rate: 4.5% (but could be as low as 0.6% in South Korea... over 1% in the US right now) also... we have a fucking vaccine for the flu and we don't for COVID-19, how hard is it to understand that?! The R-naught for the seasonal flu is mitigated by the vaccine So we have a combo: 1. covid is more contagious than seasonal flu, and because we don't have a vaccine MUCH more contagious (over 50% population could eventually get it unless social distancing and similar measures are practiced) 2. covid is ~10x as deadly, but perhaps as much as 30x-40x as deadly as the seasonal flu if NO social distancing measures are put in place it will just grow exponentially (double every few days) until 50%-100% population infected if you then apply 1% mortality, that's 1.75m-3.5m people in the US... but even if social distancing and other containment, let's say "only" 5k-10k deaths... those are all in addition to seasonal flu!”
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Mar 29, 2020 15:35:04 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 29, 2020 16:05:32 GMT -8
paging our chief resident epidemiologist, JDSoCal any update on thinking jd? everyone still a deluded bunch of pessimists? what number would make you change your mind (currently 2x your upper limit of deaths) AFB covid deaths pollThat's neat Walter, how you jump between concerned virtue signaler, scolding those of us want to throw grandmas under the bus to save the economy one minute, and "neener neener haha you lost the AFB dead pool!" the next minute. Very dexterous. If I had known that the Democrat bozos in NY were going to totally screw the pooch in the densest region in America, I might have guessed higher in the dead pool. New York's stupid-ass public health director was encouraging people to use the subway and go to restaurants and parades! And one NY legislator bozo was encouraging people to go to the Chinatown festival! As late as MARCH 2 Mayor De Bozio was encouraging people to go to movie theaters! Video of the NY bozos. Right now there are <2500 US deaths, so that would be a jump of almost two magnitudes to get to 200K. My guess is Fauci is overstating the deaths to encourage compliance, and setting up an under-promise, over-deliver scenario. I do wonder, and have asked this before. Maybe you can answer Walter (or other FUDsters here). What number would you consider a win for the US? I still say this will be less than a bad flu year, which would be 50K deaths. We're at about 1/20th of that right now as we enter the warmer spring season. Wouldn't less deaths than a bad flu season be a win? We'll see. I do think that few people are considering how bad a depression would affect pathologies like suicide and drug overdoses. 20-25 million new jobless and homeless would have far more suicides than coronavirus deaths. Japan didn't shut down their country and they flattened their curve. 80% of the deaths are over 65. Fine let retirees stay home and self-quarantine. But you can't just self-immolate the country. Red futures. Best to all.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 29, 2020 16:40:47 GMT -8
I just go everywhere. Believe the cat is out of the bag. I simply can't understand, after all the deaths that this nation and the world has experienced with the coronavirus, how you could be so willing to risk your life and, more importantly, the lives of any innocent person with which you come into contact. Believe I have been exposed, and everyone soon will be too. It's irresponsible people like yourself who have helped turn coronavirus from a murderous virus which may have been partially contained, with a lower death total, into a worldwide pandemic that may eventually kill millions. It's *especially* irresponsible for someone who admits, "Believe I have been exposed...". So *if* you have coronavirus and are asymptomatic you may very well be exposing others who may catch the virus from you and possibly die. How do you justify your behavior? Weren't we all exposed to the flu this Winter. Did anyone stay home because of it? Actually, the more intelligent among us got a flu shot to *help* protect ourselves and others from the dangers of catching the flu. Didn't you? Supposedly about 17,000 die of the flu each year. Actually, the CDC estimate is that there were 34,000 deaths from the flu in the 2018-2019 season. What's your point? I pray that Covid-19 is no worse. Hey, I have a suggestion...how about doing your praying while sheltering in place and avoiding others, instead of saying you "just go everywhere" and, while not sheltering in place, you may have *helped* let the cat out of the bag? And it's not an open question, no need to pray...do a search. Coronavirus is *much* more contagious and deadly than the flu."( I could be wrong on all this. Just my current take." So, after stating your failure to help stop the spread of coronavirus, you state that you "...could be wrong on all this". Just look at the folks like the governor of Florida who refused to shut down the beaches while it was covered with kids from all across the country celebrating Spring Break. Do you think he "could be wrong on all this"? " Sweden has not shut it's country down.) And this should make us feel better, how? The U.S. presently has has 7 deaths/1M population. China is presently at 2 deaths/1M population. Sweden has 3,700 cases of coronavirus with 110 deaths and 11 deaths/1M population.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Mar 29, 2020 16:59:14 GMT -8
I spent a couple or hours talkng to my nephew today. He is in charge of a COVID-19 floor for a small hospital in Connecticut, about 120 mile from NYC. I learned a lot about what is happening and what needs to be done. First let me tell you about this guy. He comes from a family of doctors, Both his father and older brother are M.D.'s and his older sister is a Ph.D in cancer research. He was on his way to a lucrative Wall Street career while working on a Ph.D in Geography when he decided to do his second Outward Bound course in the North Cascades. I had always encouraged him to hike and climb and we spend a couple of weeks together climbing in Yosemite. After the OB course, he told me that he had spend a lot of the time taking care of the other participants and discovered that no matter what was bothering him physically, he couldn't feel it if he was helping others. This moved him profoundly and he went back to NYC and negotiated a way to keep his job while working as an EMT. He did both jobs for a couple of years, including during 911, before deciding to quit his job and go to med school. This guy is the toughest kid I know. A fearless climber, a hard worker and as other-focussed as anyone I have met. He entered med school in his 30's and graduated two years later. After completing his residency, he passed his boards and began working at a hospital in Connecticut. When the Corona virus first appeared, the hospital decided to create a floor dedicated to it. He, of course volunteered to run it. Forgive my digressions, but I want you to get a sense of the kind of courage this guy has. He is voluntarily putting himself in harm's way for others.
If I may further digress, I want to say a few words in the defense of JDSoCal. If I read J.D.'s posts with a filter that removes the political bias, I see an underlying message that people should not panic about COVID-19. While the pandemic is serious and our response has shown some serious bureaucratic errors at every level, I believe that he has been saying that the panic may be a greater problem than the virus. When someone is saying, "don't panic" they should not be criticized as diminishing the underlying problem.
This was really brought home in my conversation with my nephew. The major problem we are facing today is the inability to test. That is the bottleneck. The ER's are flooded with people who are scared that they have the virus. Even if they do not fear for themselves, they do not want to pass it on to their loved ones. When they come to the E.R., The ER can give them a test but with the panic, it takes 4 days to get the results. It is not the shortage of test kits, it is the delay in processing that is the problem. They admit the patient until the results are back. This means that for four days, they have to put on gowns, masks, gloves and take all the precautions they would if they knew the patient was infected. Despite that, they have sent home patients before the 4 days, who turned out to be positive.
He praises his staff, especially the nurses for the way they have responded. I could not be more proud of him. I have to say that he changed my thinking. I feel the same sense of urgency, but I think we need to see leadership now centered on developing the lab processing capability.
OK, JD you were right on this one, you can punch me in the mouth as soon as I take off my mask. Stay safe, and Stay home.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Mar 29, 2020 17:07:30 GMT -8
Brokerage Thoughts? My Bank is shutting down its Investment Division and transferring all Brokerage AC's to Schwab. I also in addition to my AAPL/IRA holdings have a small overseas position with Fidelity. i have been happy with the Fidelity AC and was thinking of just transferring all my Accounts to Fidelity rather than Schwab, but wondered if anyone has had any experience with either in terms of both Service and compatibility of use on the Mac and or IOS Devices?
TIA,
The Crazy One....
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Mar 29, 2020 17:12:12 GMT -8
Brokerage Thoughts? My Bank is shutting down its Investment Division and transferring all Brokerage AC's to Schwab. I also in addition to my AAPL/IRA holdings have a small overseas position with Fidelity. i have been happy with the Fidelity AC and was thinking of just transferring all my Accounts to Fidelity rather than Schwab, but wondered if anyone has had any experience with either in terms of both Service and compatibility of use on the Mac and or IOS Devices? TIA, The Crazy One.... I have been with Fidelity for years. I am very happy with the service. When we recently had some identity theft, they handled everything and we didn't lose dime. I have no use for managed funds, so I cannot comment on that part of their business
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Post by aaplcrazie on Mar 29, 2020 17:15:44 GMT -8
Hey bud777,
Very good to hear, thanks for the intel!
Cheers.
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Post by zzmac on Mar 29, 2020 17:47:09 GMT -8
paging our chief resident epidemiologist, JDSoCal any update on thinking jd? everyone still a deluded bunch of pessimists? what number would make you change your mind (currently 2x your upper limit of deaths) AFB covid deaths pollThat's neat Walter, how you jump between concerned virtue signaler, scolding those of us want to throw grandmas under the bus to save the economy one minute, and "neener neener haha you lost the AFB dead pool!" the next minute. Very dexterous. If I had known that the Democrat bozos in NY were going to totally screw the pooch in the densest region in America, I might have guessed higher in the dead pool. New York's stupid-ass public health director was encouraging people to use the subway and go to restaurants and parades! And one NY legislator bozo was encouraging people to go to the Chinatown festival! As late as MARCH 2 Mayor De Bozio was encouraging people to go to movie theaters! Video of the NY bozos. Right now there are <2500 US deaths, so that would be a jump of almost two magnitudes to get to 200K. My guess is Fauci is overstating the deaths to encourage compliance, and setting up an under-promise, over-deliver scenario. I do wonder, and have asked this before. Maybe you can answer Walter (or other FUDsters here). What number would you consider a win for the US? I still say this will be less than a bad flu year, which would be 50K deaths. We're at about 1/20th of that right now as we enter the warmer spring season. Wouldn't less deaths than a bad flu season be a win? We'll see. I do think that few people are considering how bad a depression would affect pathologies like suicide and drug overdoses. 20-25 million new jobless and homeless would have far more suicides than coronavirus deaths. Japan didn't shut down their country and they flattened their curve. 80% of the deaths are over 65. Fine let retirees stay home and self-quarantine. But you can't just self-immolate the country. Red futures. Best to all.
I encourage you and everyone else to watch the Bill Gates interview with Anderson Cooper. You can find it on YouTube. You are sadly misinformed.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Mar 29, 2020 18:10:36 GMT -8
Link?
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Post by firestorm on Mar 29, 2020 18:10:48 GMT -8
Brokerage Thoughts? My Bank is shutting down its Investment Division and transferring all Brokerage AC's to Schwab. I also in addition to my AAPL/IRA holdings have a small overseas position with Fidelity. i have been happy with the Fidelity AC and was thinking of just transferring all my Accounts to Fidelity rather than Schwab, but wondered if anyone has had any experience with either in terms of both Service and compatibility of use on the Mac and or IOS Devices? TIA, The Crazy One.... I use Schwab and have had retirement accounts with them for 20 years. Excellent trading technology, except on one day when everyone was trying to get out of the market at once and the internet portal seemed to be overwhelmed.. I got a call Friday from a Schwab sales rep who was working from home in Seattle. He mentioned that I had timed the downturn well, but I wasn't quite sure why he called. When I asked him advice on where to park my money in this more perilous time, he said that it wouldn't be fair to give me that advice since he had customers who paid for that information. Despite that, I like Schwab, and I like their two-step login procedure.
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Post by zzmac on Mar 29, 2020 18:24:11 GMT -8
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Post by zzmac on Mar 29, 2020 18:34:46 GMT -8
A little more of the interview. I wish they had him on for 2 hours. He is a remarkable human (windows aside). 🙂 youtu.be/A71lfXrQlxU
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Post by zzmac on Mar 29, 2020 18:41:41 GMT -8
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