Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 7:15:03 GMT -8
Redler DOES need to shut up a bit on that which he isn't so informed. But he IS a fine technician as iPad will attest.
He has two issues - born with the Motivational Speaker gene, and he actually DOES harbor opinions about AAPL though pure technicians aren't supposed to trade opinions.
Stock split, sure, what the heck. Everything else NO.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 7:16:55 GMT -8
So Chas, you're going bear on us all of a sudden? Between significantly <50M iPhones and >22M iPads I know what I'd pick.
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Post by Plato on Jan 9, 2013 7:20:57 GMT -8
Redler DOES need to shut up a bit on that which he isn't so informed. But he IS a fine technician as iPad will attest. He has two issues - born with the Motivational Speaker gene, and he actually DOES harbor opinions about AAPL though pure technicians aren't supposed to trade opinions. Stock split, sure, what the heck. Everything else NO. EVERY trader and technician has an opinion about certain companies. That's just human nature. But he does NOT trade based on his opinions, I can assure you. He is too experienced to do such a foolish thing.
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 9, 2013 7:25:15 GMT -8
If I use the 6 mil. number for Verizon (plus 8 mil. from AT&T) I get to the following numbers: AT&T and Verizon represent 31.9% of all sales (max. in the last few quarters): 43.9 million iPhones Yes, but looking at: img841.imageshack.us/img841/3707/aapliphonesales.pngto get to 50mil, International would have to jump to 68% (assuming 2mil from Sprint). Historically, Q1 has been lowest % for International. A difference might that in prior years international iphone roll out were spread over March Q too. This year 100 countries by end of year. Which begs what the march guide will look like...
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Post by bignav96 on Jan 9, 2013 7:27:46 GMT -8
If I use the 6 mil. number for Verizon (plus 8 mil. from AT&T) I get to the following numbers: AT&T and Verizon represent 31.9% of all sales (max. in the last few quarters): 43.9 million iPhones AT&T and Verizon represent 21.4% of all sales (min. in the last few quarters): 65.5 million iPhones Alternative scenarios (AT&T and Verizon share = total sales): 23% = 60.9 mil. 24% = 58.3 mil. 25% = 56.0 mil. 26% = 53.8 mil. 27% = 51.9 mil. 28% = 50.0 mil. 29% = 48.3 mil. 30% = 46.7 mil. This doesn't look too bad. Yes, but looking at: img841.imageshack.us/img841/3707/aapliphonesales.pngto get to 50mil, International would have to jump to 68% (assuming 2mil from Sprint). Historically, Q1 has been lowest % for International. True, but that's because the iPhone would typically launch in FQ1 in America and then gradually roll out to foreign countries over time, resulting in FQ2 having a higher percentage of revenues coming internationally. The iPhone 5, however, had the fastest rollout of the iPhone internationally, with more than 100 countries receiving the phone in FQ1. Quick Q -- why does the chart show 9.88M iPhones for AT&T? Isn't that higher than the roughly 8 million to be expected out of 10Mish smartphone sales by the carrier? Maybe I'm misreading the chart.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 9, 2013 7:32:21 GMT -8
Between significantly <50M iPhones and >22M iPads I know what I'd pick. What does that mean? I'm not pinning my hopes on the iPad. Minis are fantastic but again, who knows how many they made. Reg. iPad sales will be disappointing is my guess. They've been short every Quarter of what we think they would be. I'd like someone to convince me why International iphone #s will jump to 68%. People using 52+ numbers are nuts IMO. Plato, good to see you! Hope trading has been kind to you.
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Post by Big Al on Jan 9, 2013 7:34:28 GMT -8
True, but that's because the iPhone would typically launch in FQ1 in America and then gradually roll out to foreign countries over time, resulting in FQ2 having a higher percentage of revenues coming internationally. The iPhone 5, however, had the fastest rollout of the iPhone internationally, with more than 100 countries receiving the phone in FQ1. Quick Q -- why does the chart show 9.88M iPhones for AT&T? Isn't that higher than the roughly 8 million to be expected out of 10Mish smartphone sales by the carrier? Maybe I'm misreading the chart. I think these are older estimates by terps530 who built this table. I would like to point out that the table does not show international percentage of iPhone sales, but of total revenues. So international made up 63% of iPhone sales in FQ1 2012 and 74% in FQ2 2012. So 68% would be somewhere in the middle, which might happen since international growth (China, new carriers, etc.) seems to be higher than US growth.
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Post by zzmac on Jan 9, 2013 7:51:15 GMT -8
+1 All this from a guy who stares at charts all day and likely has zero clue or foundation to be advising Apple management on a single thing. Funny how almost everyone fancies themselves as some kind of expert. No matter how unqualified they are. He is a day trader and HAS to stare at charts all day .. Duh!! Do you know Scott? Do you follow him on Twitter and read his thoughts about AAPL and how he trades it??? I assume not! However, you insult a person you have no idea about! He knows very well about Apple's fundamentals, its business model and long term opportunities. However, he makes money by swing/day trading these stocks and shares his insights and thoughts, which by the way, are very good and helpful for a lot of day traders. He called short term bottoms and tops very precisely and made money off of it. Reading your comment made me believe you're just an unhappy and moping share holder that lashes out on everyone that has anything critical to say about Apple.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 9, 2013 7:53:50 GMT -8
All this from a guy who stares at charts all day and likely has zero clue or foundation to be advising Apple management on a single thing. Funny how almost everyone fancies themselves as some kind of expert. No matter how unqualified they are. He is a day trader and HAS to stare at charts all day .. Duh!! Do you know Scott? Do you follow him on Twitter and read his thoughts about AAPL and how he trades it??? I assume not! However, you insult a person you have no idea about! He knows very well about Apple's fundamentals, its business model and long term opportunities. However, he makes money by swing/day trading these stocks and shares his insights and thoughts, which by the way, are very good and helpful for a lot of day traders. He called short term bottoms and tops very precisely and made money off of it. Reading your comment made me believe you're just an unhappy and moping share holder that lashes out on everyone that has anything critical to say about Apple. I will respond more fully when I have time. Apple is held to a different standard compared to every other company on the planet. Against this back drop, I think some guy who day trades for a living, who lectures management on needing to execute better is simply absurd. Unhappy and moping shareholder. Good one .
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 9, 2013 7:56:27 GMT -8
I posted Redler's comments this morning, because they were unusually harsh for him. I disagree with many of them -- for instance, a cheaper iPhone is one of many often repeated, and as far as I know, unsubstantiated rumors. I have not heard Apple announce such a device.
IMHO His comments about Apple's management went too far. Yes, Apple is not producing enough despite consistently growing, often doubling capacity -- but what would Wall Street say if they quadrupled capacity and were unable to sell them all... The truth is nobody knows what the demand is until it is hit.
The reason Redler's comments jumped out at me was I could hear the frustration in his voice. I'm hoping that's an indicator of capitulation.
;-)
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Post by rezonate on Jan 9, 2013 8:00:37 GMT -8
My read on the uptake of ipad in enterprise is the last mile problem. There are very few and expensive multi-device management tools. The iOS is outrageously secure and un-customizable, to the point to paranoia. Perfect for an individual, bad for a structured environment. A lot more effort is required on the back end and the support structure is just not yet mature. The iTunesU platform is years ahead of any other offering in the tablet space, but nobody would know it - again too hard for enterprise to get on board. Copyright law issues, mostly.
The second piece of this is social content creation. There is only so much consumption and sharing of material you can do before you all need to gather around a canvas and create. Again, ipad is perfect for an individual consumer, not so good as a collaborative enabler. Apple has seen the potential and built the new Garage Band with ad-hoc collaborative creation tools. Watch for iBooks Author to start enabling collaboration around a shared content object. Apple will need to extract key pieces from iTunes U into an unguarded space.
When social content creation around a shared resource gets out from under the web repository model (think Evernote, Yelp, Dropbox and iTunes U) I predict we'll see more hefty iPad uptake from Enterprise.
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Post by Plato on Jan 9, 2013 8:07:47 GMT -8
I posted Redler's comments this morning, because they were unusually harsh for him. I disagree with many of them -- for instance, a cheaper iPhone is one of many often repeated, and as far as I know, unsubstantiated rumors. I have not heard Apple announce such a device. IMHO His comments about Apple's management went too far. Yes, Apple is not producing enough despite consistently growing, often doubling capacity -- but what would Wall Street say if they quadrupled capacity and were unable to sell them all... The truth is nobody knows what the demand is until it is hit. The reason Redler's comments jumped out at me was I could hear the frustration in his voice. I'm hoping that's an indicator of capitulation. ;-) Capitulation of what? He simply stated his opinion, which btw IMO was not harsh at all. He didn't try to lecture Apple management as someone else posted here. I think his opinion is shared by a lot of investors seeing the stock price tumble from 700 to 500 in a couple of month. Scott does not care personally if AAPL hits 1,000 by 2014 or goes down to $425 after earnings. He positions himself accordingly, sets stops based on support and resistance and makes money off of every move. And he is very open and frank about his trades and shares them the trading community, profitable trades as well as the ones that cost him money. He also gives very valuable risk and finance management advice and is very encouraging and open to critical feedback. And yes, he holds Apple up to a higher standard, b/c Steve Jobs created that standard!
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Post by lance on Jan 9, 2013 8:10:34 GMT -8
AAPL on pace for 4 month downtrend. Last 4 month was in 2009 and last 5 month downtrend was 2002 from what I found. I go would hazard a guess in January or February this will reverse and it does appear that this downtrend is losing strength.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 8:15:38 GMT -8
My read on the uptake of ipad in enterprise is the last mile problem. There are very few and expensive multi-device management tools. The iOS is outrageously secure and un-customizable, to the point to paranoia. Perfect for an individual, bad for a structured environment. A lot more effort is required on the back end and the support structure is just not yet mature. The iTunesU platform is years ahead of any other offering in the tablet space, but nobody would know it - again too hard for enterprise to get on board. Copyright law issues, mostly. The second piece of this is social content creation. There is only so much consumption and sharing of material you can do before you all need to gather around a canvas and create. Again, ipad is perfect for an individual consumer, not so good as a collaborative enabler. Apple has seen the potential and built the new Garage Band with ad-hoc collaborative creation tools. Watch for iBooks Author to start enabling collaboration around a shared content object. Apple will need to extract key pieces from iTunes U into an unguarded space. When social content creation around a shared resource gets out from under the web repository model (think Evernote, Yelp, Dropbox and iTunes U) I predict we'll see more hefty iPad uptake from Enterprise. To a great extent it actually is out from the web model in the enterprise. For active collaboration MS Sharepoint and MS Lync. For databases usually Citrix and VMware offer security and a way in to back office apps. There is also a host of other vendors that have IOS apps that provide an interface into their traditional back office apps. IF MS Release an IOS version of their office apps that would be huge. When Apple started to support MS Exchange that was a major turning point and arguably took most of RIMs competitive advantage away. The driving force in the enterprise is actually BYOD and that C level execs are demanding their IT departments enable the corp apps to be accessible via the iPad. The execs view mobility as key to productivity and being ahead of their competition. Basically the days of getting work done back at a desk is no longer ideal (actually viewed as a hindrance) for the majority of the enterprise force. The iPad is the perfect enterprise device to date to enable that mobility.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 8:31:06 GMT -8
Capitulation of what? He simply stated his opinion, which btw IMO was not harsh at all. He didn't try to lecture Apple management as someone else posted here. I think his opinion is shared by a lot of investors seeing the stock price tumble from 700 to 500 in a couple of month. Scott does not care personally if AAPL hits 1,000 by 2014 or goes down to $425 after earnings. He positions himself accordingly, sets stops based on support and resistance and makes money off of every move. And he is very open and frank about his trades and shares them the trading community, profitable trades as well as the ones that cost him money. He also gives very valuable risk and finance management advice and is very encouraging and open to critical feedback. And yes, he holds Apple up to a higher standard, b/c Steve Jobs created that standard! I agree with Redler. Many here lash out at anyone who is not a fan boy. Apple is not perfect and has made many mistakes. It is not really reassuring to hear mgmt continually deflect comments concerning share price to "we are focused on making great products". Apple moves slow and the Divy and share purchase were huge steps, but not enough. Most reasonable people know that 120 billion in cash is ridiculous. Apple was a small company that turned into a big company almost overnight. They have been overwhelmed sometimes. Lstream's comments about him just being a daytrader does not surprise me. Why attack his job/profession? A job that he does very well from what I have seen. He graduated cum laude from Albany’s school of business. I think that carries more weight that some anonymous poster in a forum.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 9, 2013 8:36:41 GMT -8
An indicator we've bottomed. Much like some people view talk of cars as an indicator of excess euphoria. Please do not misinterpret my comment as lack of respect for Scott. I am merely noting his tone regarding Apple relative to other other days.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 8:43:48 GMT -8
Capitulation of what? He simply stated his opinion, which btw IMO was not harsh at all. He didn't try to lecture Apple management as someone else posted here. I think his opinion is shared by a lot of investors seeing the stock price tumble from 700 to 500 in a couple of month. Scott does not care personally if AAPL hits 1,000 by 2014 or goes down to $425 after earnings. He positions himself accordingly, sets stops based on support and resistance and makes money off of every move. And he is very open and frank about his trades and shares them the trading community, profitable trades as well as the ones that cost him money. He also gives very valuable risk and finance management advice and is very encouraging and open to critical feedback. And yes, he holds Apple up to a higher standard, b/c Steve Jobs created that standard! I agree with Redler. Many here lash out at anyone who is not a fan boy. Apple is not perfect and has made many mistakes. It is not really reassuring to hear mgmt continually deflect comments concerning share price to "we are focused on making great products". Apple moves slow and the Divy and share purchase were huge steps, but not enough. Most reasonable people know that 120 billion in cash is ridiculous. Apple was a small company that turned into a big company almost overnight. They have been overwhelmed sometimes. Lstream's comments about him just being a daytrader does not surprise me. Why attack his job/profession? A job that he does very well from what I have seen. He graduated cum laude from Albany’s school of business. I think that carries more weight that some anonymous poster in a forum. On this subject we have come to this: Argument from authority The basic structure of such arguments is as follows: Professor X believes A, Professor X speaks from authority, therefore A is true. Often this argument is implied by emphasizing the many years of experience, or the formal degrees held by the individual making a specific claim. But it is still possible for highly educated individuals, and a broad consensus to be wrong – speaking from authority does not make a claim true. AND unfortunately this: Ad hominem An ad hominem argument is any that attempts to counter another’s claims or conclusions by attacking the person, rather than addressing the argument itself.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 9, 2013 8:44:35 GMT -8
Updated that table to Percentages of Units for International. ATT, VZ and S are %s of US units.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 9, 2013 8:47:30 GMT -8
Lstream's comments about him just being a daytrader does not surprise me. Why attack his job/profession? A job that he does very well from what I have seen. He graduated cum laude from Albany’s school of business. I think that carries more weight that some anonymous poster in a forum. I AM NOT attacking his profession. I am saying that his profession gives him no special insight into how to execute at Apple. Just another voice in all the noise. Clearly I have touched a nerve by daring to question this guy's competence to judge Apple. My belief is that these market gurus and thought leaders come and go. And for a while they have their followers like he has here. Until the inevitable days comes when he is wrong, loses people a bunch of money, and someone new shows up for the masses to follow. If you guys think Redler has some special insights or magic then fill yer boots. I have no faith in gurus du jour like him. Plus me questioning his opinions does not make me some kind of blind Apple fan boy. But what about you guys that all over my case for daring to question him? Does that make the rest of you Redler fan boys?
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 9, 2013 9:00:23 GMT -8
Three Words: Source of Funds
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Post by terps530 on Jan 9, 2013 9:00:27 GMT -8
True, but that's because the iPhone would typically launch in FQ1 in America and then gradually roll out to foreign countries over time, resulting in FQ2 having a higher percentage of revenues coming internationally. The iPhone 5, however, had the fastest rollout of the iPhone internationally, with more than 100 countries receiving the phone in FQ1. Quick Q -- why does the chart show 9.88M iPhones for AT&T? Isn't that higher than the roughly 8 million to be expected out of 10Mish smartphone sales by the carrier? Maybe I'm misreading the chart. I think these are older estimates by terps530 who built this table. I would like to point out that the table does not show international percentage of iPhone sales, but of total revenues. So international made up 63% of iPhone sales in FQ1 2012 and 74% in FQ2 2012. So 68% would be somewhere in the middle, which might happen since international growth (China, new carriers, etc.) seems to be higher than US growth. oops sorry about that. the last row are indeed calculated #s. That is if apple jumped in the same % from Fall to Winter 2012 as they did in 2011. Those are indeed outdated, from a few weeks ago before the AT&T release. I thought I posted the chart with this quarter blank- my bad don't wanna confuse anyone!
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 9, 2013 9:03:47 GMT -8
Updated that table to Percentages of Units for International. ATT, VZ and S are %s of US units. I think the VZ and Sprint numbers might be a bit high....but trust me, I'd love to be 50 million+ iPhones. I do worry about weakness in Europe that could depress international sales. I feel like I'm a pessimist but many of the independant analysts were burned the last two quarters for being overly optimistic so I'm erring on the side of caution.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 9:08:10 GMT -8
Gregg had the best set of data points I've read on the how many phones point. He spoke to the myth of the one week less in the qtr factor. Sorry wish I had the link but if you do a search it is a very relevant read.
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Post by Plato on Jan 9, 2013 9:19:25 GMT -8
Lstream's comments about him just being a daytrader does not surprise me. Why attack his job/profession? A job that he does very well from what I have seen. He graduated cum laude from Albany’s school of business. I think that carries more weight that some anonymous poster in a forum. I AM NOT attacking his profession. I am saying that his profession gives him no special insight into how to execute at Apple. Just another voice in all the noise. Clearly I have touched a nerve by daring to question this guy's competence to judge Apple. My belief is that these market gurus and thought leaders come and go. And for a while they have their followers like he has here. Until the inevitable days comes when he is wrong, loses people a bunch of money, and someone new shows up for the masses to follow. If you guys think Redler has some special insights or magic then fill yer boots. I have no faith in gurus du jour like him. Plus me questioning his opinions does not make me some kind of blind Apple fan boy. But what about you guys that all over my case for daring to question him? Does that make the rest of you Redler fan boys? You are correct - he has no special 'insight', he just simply expressed his opinion. As for being a Redler 'fan boy' - no I am not, I follow him and weigh everything he says carefully. At the end I make my own decisions, at the end it is MY money I put in a trade, not his! And if you would follow him (I know you never will, just saying), you would realize that he never says 'buy, buy, buy' or 'sell, sell, sell'. He points out charts and other technical indicators and only mentions when he is buying or selling and WHAT and WHY he is doing it. He never gives direct trading advice. Quite the contrary - he cautions everyone to be careful and set stops and do their own DD. He is NOT a J. Cramer.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 9:24:40 GMT -8
Gregg had the best set of data points I've read on the how many phones point. He spoke to the myth of the one week less in the qtr factor. Sorry wish I had the link but if you do a search it is a very relevant read. I remember the post about the myth, that was from Thurmanville. Gregg is very high for this quarter on estimates. He has to make his case on how to get there. One is to dispel the "myth". I am still trying to figure out the signal that was sent by Apple with the CC number. That was a good number no matter what. Apple launched in more countries, but was that enough to get above 50 million? China was worth what? Maybe 4 million? If the 15% CC info is tied to the EPS number. Apple guided to 11.75 x 15% = 1.76, which results in 13.51 EPS. That would suck. Even if normalized, that would represent a very weak YOY. I don't think it is possible for it to be tied to revenue, that would put revenue close to 60 billion. Back to the drawing board.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 9, 2013 9:33:30 GMT -8
Gregg had the best set of data points I've read on the how many phones point. He spoke to the myth of the one week less in the qtr factor. Sorry wish I had the link but if you do a search it is a very relevant read. I remember the post about the myth, that was from Thurmanville. Gregg is very high for this quarter on estimates. He has to make his case on how to get there. One is to dispel the "myth". I am still trying to figure out the signal that was sent by Apple with the CC number. That was a good number no matter what. Apple launched in more countries, but was that enough to get above 50 million? China was worth what? Maybe 4 million? If the 15% CC info is tied to the EPS number. Apple guided to 11.75 x 15% = 1.76, which results in 13.51 EPS. That would suck. Even if normalized, that would represent a very weak YOY. I don't think it is possible for it to be tied to revenue, that would put revenue close to 60 billion. Back to the drawing board. I am just worried we are going to get a rude awakening and be down YoY due to all of the issues that everyone knows about (production problems, iMac shortages, lower asp of Mini, lack of Mini supply, increased competition from Samsung....) You name it there is alot to worry about. Obviously there are the "pluses" such as iphone 5 coming into balance and supply issues on that device relatively short lived, solid numbers reported from AT&T, VZ, opening sales of 2 million in China...strong (or rather huge) demand for the Mini)... It will be an interesting report. I really do hope Apple beats as I'm well underwater on my shares.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 9, 2013 9:40:13 GMT -8
Gregg had the best set of data points I've read on the how many phones point. He spoke to the myth of the one week less in the qtr factor. Sorry wish I had the link but if you do a search it is a very relevant read. Gregg also thought yesterday that the AT&T sales numbers did not include any activations or renewals through 3rd parties when in fact they did. If that consideration is part of his iPhone number, he's going to come in too high.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 9:42:45 GMT -8
I remember the post about the myth, that was from Thurmanville. Gregg is very high for this quarter on estimates. He has to make his case on how to get there. One is to dispel the "myth". I am still trying to figure out the signal that was sent by Apple with the CC number. That was a good number no matter what. Apple launched in more countries, but was that enough to get above 50 million? China was worth what? Maybe 4 million? If the 15% CC info is tied to the EPS number. Apple guided to 11.75 x 15% = 1.76, which results in 13.51 EPS. That would suck. Even if normalized, that would represent a very weak YOY. I don't think it is possible for it to be tied to revenue, that would put revenue close to 60 billion. Back to the drawing board. I am just worried we are going to get a rude awakening and be down YoY due to all of the issues that everyone knows about (production problems, iMac shortages, lower asp of Mini, lack of Mini supply, increased competition from Samsung....) You name it there is alot to worry about. Obviously there are the "pluses" such as iphone 5 coming into balance and supply issues on that device relatively short lived, solid numbers reported from AT&T, VZ, opening sales of 2 million in China...strong (or rather huge) demand for the Mini)... It will be an interesting report. I really do hope Apple beats as I'm well underwater on my shares. I remember specifically in the conf call when an analyst brought up the supply issues, TC said the number in their guidance was basically a number they knew they could produce, comfortably i.e. that there is no risk in supply chain with the number they guided. Any more than that they simply did not know at that time.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 9:44:52 GMT -8
I can remember 5 months ago people were talking about this quarter being 20+ EPS. Now we are just hoping for anything over $14.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 9, 2013 9:49:49 GMT -8
Updated that table to Percentages of Units for International. ATT, VZ and S are %s of US units. Are there not any additional sales in the US apart from the big 3 carriers? I forget where I got the data from, but I had 2M iPhones last year in the "other US" category. This could have a large impact when applying the factor to international sales. Care to shed some light on this?
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