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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 12:54:44 GMT -8
Interesting we get good numbers from the carriers that support a big qtr but still go down.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 9, 2013 12:58:48 GMT -8
At this point I don't care if it goes to zero but I would just like a rational cohesive response as to why it's trading like this and nothing I have read tells me that it should be collapsing. If you say it's technical then so be it...why bother with EPS or GM or anything else because it doesn't mean crap. It's just absurd at this point....like someone really wants to punish this stock for no apparent reason.
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Post by prazan on Jan 9, 2013 13:05:35 GMT -8
Chas, thanks for posting your numbers, and thanks to Terps and others for riffing on them. I've been off in a parallel universe, working up my own set of numbers. Sprint is a guess based on 0% growth YoY:
AT&T: 8.3 VZ: 5.4 Sprint: 1.8
Q1 2013 Top 3 Total: 15.5 million
Q1 2012 Top 3 Total: 13.7 million
This represents baseline 13% growth YoY, not adjusted for any of the following: extra week in Q1 2012, increasing T-mobile sales, other regional carriers. Adjust to 15% if Sprint shows some growth.
As I understand it, which is imperfectly, phones activated on carriers other than the top three authorized resellers can't be strictly counted as new device sales. Some are unlocked phones, jailbroken phones, resold phones, and so on. Just like phones sold at Apple stores in the U.S. but then shipped overseas for activation, we can't really count them as U.S. sales.
I'm with the camp that thinks that the faster international roll out of products internationally will make a difference in the percentage of international sales. I think Q1 2012 was an anomaly at 37%/63% U.S/INTL because the 4S wasn't rolled out so quickly. That the 5 remained supply constrained in the U.S. might argue that the U.S. wasn't given preferential treatment, either. If you look at Q1 2011, the split was 25% U.S. to 75% international. Crazy, yes? This points to the split being determined by product roll out patterns as much as pure seasonality, or more so. Last quarter the split was 35/65 because the first week of the 5's roll out was weighted toward the U.S.
At 15.5 million units, a 31% U.S. to 69% International split would yield 50 million units worldwide.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 13:06:47 GMT -8
You are right Phoe very discouraging. Apart from the expected numbers I think of TC repeating don't bet against us. Probably not the words from a CEO with knowledge of bad things coming.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 13:07:32 GMT -8
I can remember 5 months ago people were talking about this quarter being 20+ EPS. Now we are just hoping for anything over $14. $20 is still a possibility - on the outside chance of 60 million iPhones lifting GM% to 43%. Neither of those numbers are outside the realm of possibility. Not likely to happen, but still a possibility.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 13:08:01 GMT -8
Until AAPL tests 500 again (far as downwide target), there isn't much to do unless you're super-short-term trading. Sheesh.
Two weeks til earnings.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 13:08:46 GMT -8
What a shitty close....
Why?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 13:09:11 GMT -8
$20 EPS is flat-out impossible this quarter.
Recheck your spreadsheet. I had to put in 60M iPhones, 27.5M iPads at a $490 ASP and a 44% GM to even get close.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 13:09:56 GMT -8
Why bother asking why? Life's too short to pull one's hair out grasping for explanations for market irrationality.
Don't fight the tape, as iPad says.
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Post by macwire on Jan 9, 2013 13:11:48 GMT -8
Don't understand it but I'm taking the trend until proven otherwise with tight stops. Sucks.
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Post by SomeJuan on Jan 9, 2013 13:13:01 GMT -8
I would love to hear one thing from PO on the 23rd, regarding no further guidance for the corrupt street. No more fucking guidance for you ANALyst mofo's! analize this oIo.
Too much to ask?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 13:13:06 GMT -8
$20 EPS is flat-out impossible this quarter. Recheck your spreadsheet. I had to put in 60M iPhones, 27.5M iPads at a $490 ASP and a 44% GM to even get close. i don't see why it's impossible.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 13:15:07 GMT -8
There is no way in heck Oppenheimer intends to leave open an 800 basis point beat of guidance.
Really as simple as that. Not so much the unknowns of iPhone and iPad. Just simple straight-up profitability.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 13:21:01 GMT -8
There is no way in heck Oppenheimer intends to leave open an 800 basis point beat of guidance. Really as simple as that. Not so much the unknowns of iPhone and iPad. Just simple straight-up profitability. I agree its highly improbable, but was just pointing out that its not impossible. On a different note, can anyone recommend a good article/post from some regarding GM and the iPhone? As in, how does the GM% increase over the life of a product?
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Post by terps530 on Jan 9, 2013 13:22:02 GMT -8
You are right Phoe very discouraging. Apart from the expected numbers I think of TC repeating don't bet against us. Probably not the words from a CEO with knowledge of bad things coming. probably true, but also doesn't necessarily have to relate to the share price at all, or any near term action. Also, if 'don't bet against us' means a lot of good, then what does 'amazing, incredible, fantastic, great, amazing, etc etc mean?' lol just trying to have a bit of fun after a crappy day.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 13:22:14 GMT -8
Why bother asking why? Life's too short to pull one's hair out grasping for explanations for market irrationality. Don't fight the tape, as iPad says. AND there is never a single answer. Our nature is we want it to be but it will be multiple factors.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 13:25:54 GMT -8
You are right Phoe very discouraging. Apart from the expected numbers I think of TC repeating don't bet against us. Probably not the words from a CEO with knowledge of bad things coming. probably true, but also doesn't necessarily have to relate to the share price at all, or any near term action. Also, if 'don't bet against us' means a lot of good, then what does 'amazing, incredible, fantastic, great, amazing, etc etc mean?' lol just trying to have a bit of fun after a crappy day. What it means is have a glass of wine instead of a jug of whine :-)
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 9, 2013 13:26:25 GMT -8
Why bother asking why? Life's too short to pull one's hair out grasping for explanations for market irrationality. Don't fight the tape, as iPad says. AND there is never a single answer. Our nature is we want it to be but it will be multiple factors. Since the all time high over 700 the price/action has been terrible, and the fact it still continues is disgusting considering what's happening to other stocks like AMZN and GOOG. I am really wondering if the insiders really "know" something and the earnings will not be that great (eg. the stock will tank), or if this is just started out as pure up profit taking/tax selling and it soured sentiment (still to this day). If so and earnings are great then we should really Pop like a cork from a bottle of champagne...but I have a sinking feeling in the bottom of my gut that earnings will disappoint and we are in for sub-500 levels for an extended period. I really do hope I'm wrong.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 13:27:31 GMT -8
There is no way in heck Oppenheimer intends to leave open an 800 basis point beat of guidance. Really as simple as that. Not so much the unknowns of iPhone and iPad. Just simple straight-up profitability. I agree its highly improbable, but was just pointing out that its not impossible. On a different note, can anyone recommend a good article/post from some regarding GM and the iPhone? As in, how does the GM% increase over the life of a product? Horace, of course, has the answers I need: www.asymco.com/2012/10/29/the-iphone-and-apples-margins/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 13:35:29 GMT -8
You're not doing yourself any favors if you lack conviction.
If you're trapped I guess that's one thing. But if you think a certain way and you're not trapped, then "why are you still here"? (/Tim Cook famous line)
It's not that complicated.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 13:38:02 GMT -8
I'll also go out on a limb and say that anyone who thinks that Apple is peaking is wrong. Management lives by the long game, and with transitions come bumps in the road.
As for the stock itself, DYODD as always.
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Post by yellowhandman on Jan 9, 2013 13:55:15 GMT -8
If so and earnings are great then we should really Pop like a cork from a bottle of champagne...but I have a sinking feeling in the bottom of my gut that earnings will disappoint and we are in for sub-500 levels for an extended period. I really do hope I'm wrong. My fear is that the sentiment has turned so bad that even great/good earnings will somehow have no effect. Even at the best of times, the analysts and press always try to spin AAPL's earnings negatively, no matter what the reality is.
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Post by alice on Jan 9, 2013 13:55:32 GMT -8
This downtrend has been hard. Never thought it could drop this low and stay so low for this long without much of a bounce. To me, I feel a lot like I did during 2008/2009 financial crisis. I understood the reason for the decline in 20O8/2009. I really do not know why aapl share price is this low. I am currently guessing it is because of the low EPS Q1 guidance. As I said before, I will wait for ER. ER can not come soon enough.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 9, 2013 14:00:13 GMT -8
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Post by prazan on Jan 9, 2013 14:08:23 GMT -8
Given that everyone's uncle has a crackpot theory about Apple's price action, and I am a crackpot uncle myself, I thought I'd share mine.
It boils down to, "Where's the money?" By money, I mean EPS. I think many investors started looking ahead to 2013, and the difficulties Apple faces in adding to the TTM. Even raging bull case scenarios add only a couple bucks or three to TTM EPS this coming report, and the bull case scenario hasn't played out for two quarters, with the downside being contracting TTM EPS. Next quarter also poses a tough compare, at $12 bucks and change. Again, the bull case scenario adds a couple of bucks to EPS and no more.
It's not until Q3 and Q4 that significant EPS expansion looks more possible, with relatively weak quarters of $9 and $8 dollars as compares, and relatively fresh products with I hope a surprise or two tucked in. I'm modeling 30% EPS growth this FY, but most of it is back-ended.
The fear-greed ratio is slanted toward fear, in that the greed aspect is tempered by the tough compares in the first two quarters.
I think Apple beats WS handily this Q, and I'm hoping that they guide reasonably. Much of the supply chain uncertainty is resolved, so I hope this will influence guidance, and that they don't give the market the middle finger with artificially low guidance. These two factors will determine how the stock moves in the first three months. If investors can see growing EPS, I think it will drive the share price up.
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Post by Plato on Jan 9, 2013 14:09:31 GMT -8
At this point I don't care if it goes to zero but I would just like a rational cohesive response as to why it's trading like this and nothing I have read tells me that it should be collapsing. If you say it's technical then so be it...why bother with EPS or GM or anything else because it doesn't mean crap. It's just absurd at this point....like someone really wants to punish this stock for no apparent reason. If you want a technical reason, here you go. The stock is broken. We are in a range of 501/505 - 555 since the beginning of December. We need to break decisively above 555 and stay there (not just for a day or 2), then we broke the short term downtrend and could see 595ish quickly. However, the failure today of going back above 525 (several attempts), does not bode well. The only good news is that 501-505 is major support for now. IF this breaks, 475 area will be seen in no time! Fundamentals or earnings around the corner does not matter. This is a 1000% trading stock at the moment.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 9, 2013 14:12:40 GMT -8
At this point I don't care if it goes to zero but I would just like a rational cohesive response as to why it's trading like this and nothing I have read tells me that it should be collapsing. If you say it's technical then so be it...why bother with EPS or GM or anything else because it doesn't mean crap. It's just absurd at this point....like someone really wants to punish this stock for no apparent reason. If you want a technical reason, here you go. The stock is broken. We are in a range of 501/505 - 555 since the beginning of December. We need to break decisively above 555 and stay there (not just for a day or 2), then we broke the short term downtrend and could see 595ish quickly. However, the failure today of going back above 525 (several attempts), does not bode well. The only good news is that 501-505 is major support for now. IF this breaks, 475 area will be seen in no time! Fundamentals or earnings around the corner does not matter. This is a 1000% trading stock at the moment. I fully understand and also understand the technicals but my point was that I find it amazing that it is then irrelevant what a company does or earns when technicals are in charge. That's the infuriating part.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 14:30:46 GMT -8
If you want a technical reason, here you go. The stock is broken. We are in a range of 501/505 - 555 since the beginning of December. We need to break decisively above 555 and stay there (not just for a day or 2), then we broke the short term downtrend and could see 595ish quickly. However, the failure today of going back above 525 (several attempts), does not bode well. The only good news is that 501-505 is major support for now. IF this breaks, 475 area will be seen in no time! Fundamentals or earnings around the corner does not matter. This is a 1000% trading stock at the moment. I fully understand and also understand the technicals but my point was that I find it amazing that it is then irrelevant what a company does or earns when technicals are in charge. That's the infuriating part. All the more reason why apple should be doing an accelerated share buy back right at this time.
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Post by Plato on Jan 9, 2013 14:30:58 GMT -8
If you want a technical reason, here you go. The stock is broken. We are in a range of 501/505 - 555 since the beginning of December. We need to break decisively above 555 and stay there (not just for a day or 2), then we broke the short term downtrend and could see 595ish quickly. However, the failure today of going back above 525 (several attempts), does not bode well. The only good news is that 501-505 is major support for now. IF this breaks, 475 area will be seen in no time! Fundamentals or earnings around the corner does not matter. This is a 1000% trading stock at the moment. I fully understand and also understand the technicals but my point was that I find it amazing that it is then irrelevant what a company does or earns when technicals are in charge. That's the infuriating part. Yes it is irrelevant once a stock is broken - well at least until a new product is announced (and I am talking not just about a new iPhone 6 with bigger screen and better battery and camera). I mean a really new innovation! Or when earnings are announced - that will also make TA irrelevant for a certain amount of time. But currently, the big guys see that the trend is sideways to down, and they use this shamelessly every day and bounce this stock around no matter what the rest of the market does.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 9, 2013 14:35:18 GMT -8
My fear is that the sentiment has turned so bad that even great/good earnings will somehow have no effect. Even at the best of times, the analysts and press always try to spin AAPL's earnings negatively, no matter what the reality is. Last year we were flat and i'd say almost depressed going into earnings (though nothing like this year). After the big pop on the day after, it took 1.5 weeks of trading sideways before the real moves to the upside started. I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened this year, or even worse. Then again, I don't want to expect we mimic last year's pop either. In two weeks at this time, we'll have a better idea...
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