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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 20:19:06 GMT -8
Burgess, I thought the price was relative, and it was the VAT's and such that accounted for the price discrepancy.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 9, 2013 20:19:36 GMT -8
Futures are up solidly. So aapl will probably be down another 1% tomorrow :/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 20:21:42 GMT -8
"Overcharge"? Doubt it. See no profit umbrella statements by Oppenheimer, etc. The competition would absolutely exploit that too if it was significant.
Don't forget VAT and other factors for Apple product pricing worldwide.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 20:23:06 GMT -8
Futures are up solidly. So aapl will probably be down another 1% tomorrow :/ NAS +6 is nothing.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 20:23:25 GMT -8
Not sure how +0.2% really points to anything.
AAPL is volatile, sure, but short term, just keep taking it level by level. AAPL's trading ranges have actually been compressing lately.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 9, 2013 20:27:36 GMT -8
Ad hominem An ad hominem argument is any that attempts to counter another’s claims or conclusions by attacking the person, rather than addressing the argument itself. But is questioning someone's qualifications really an ad hominem? If a pediatrician wants to do brain surgery on me, and I say, "dude, you're a pediatrician, not a brain surgeon," that actually goes toward his abilities, not his character. If one says, "but Redler is a known puppy kicker" would be an ad hominem. If one says, "but Redler is a technician, not a fundamental analyst" is a fair criticism, absent a known expertise or track record WRT Apple fundamentals. I'm agnostic on Redler impersonating a FA guy, BTW, since we have no shortages of charlatans all over the Apple blabosphere doing so. Frankly, I think one of the huge shortcomings of TA guys is their ignoring the fundamental elephants in the room. That, and it's total BS.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 20:28:19 GMT -8
"Overcharge"? Doubt it. See no profit umbrella statements by Oppenheimer, etc. The competition would absolutely exploit that too if it was significant. Don't forget VAT and other factors for Apple product pricing worldwide. Yes I did account for those before converting into USD - those prices are after Local VAT has been accounted for (20% for UK, 17% for China, 10% for Australia, 15% for New Zealand). Im wondering what the strategy is...only thing I can think of is that the iPhone 4 is targeting the top of the price conscious/Pre Pay market, while those looking above $500 care much less about the handset cost so Apple can happily increase prices at the top end. The iPhone margins globally may be better than people think (seeing as most people are calculating margins based on the US price).
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 20:30:26 GMT -8
A more interesting question is why does Apple overcharge internationally for their top end iPhone models (compared to USA prices & after sales taxes are accounted for)? Yet for the bottom end model, the iPhone 4, pricing is often better than the US pricing? This pricing situation remains in place through the entire length of the product cycle, even after supply has caught up with demand for the top model. Prices of unsubsidised iPhones: (In US Dollars, after local sales taxes removed) Country ip4 ip4S ip5 USA $450 $549 $649 UK $425 $599 $705 China $422 $614 $723 Australia $429 $648 $763 New Zlnd $438 $657 $766 Along the same lines from the wall street cheat sheet (the numbers are a little different in some places but you point is the same) "In the U.S., an iPhone 5 without a contract costs $649, the iPhone 4S is available for $549, and the iPhone 4 sells for $450. By comparison, in China, which is being touted as one of the biggest potential markets for the rumored devise, an unlocked iPhone 5 currently costs $840. The iPhone 4S sells for $713, while the iPhone 4 costs $491. In Sweden, a new iPhone 5 without a contract comes for $918, the 4S for $735 and the 4 for $505. In Singapore, the prices are $771, $641, and $478, respectively, while in Italy they are $955, $824, and $562 respectively. Things are even worse in Brazil, which has a heavy import tax and where an unlocked iPhone 4S costs $983. The iPhone 5 is not available in that country through Apple’s online store yet, but even with a carrier contract it starts at $628."
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 9, 2013 20:32:24 GMT -8
BTW, Tuesday and Wednesday night pain was/is 520-524.99. I suspect an up close tomorrow, unless those 520 calls pop.
Stk Calls Puts 515 3,188 6,677 520 6,411 7,331 525 9,504 6,100 530 12,531 4,869
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Post by sponge on Jan 9, 2013 20:35:11 GMT -8
It makes quite a bit of sense. The MMs are set on destroying all calls prior to monthly OE. It's quite possible they may be aiming for everything 500 and above now that they smell blood. We'll likely have a three-day run into earnings if we can catch a break. Rinse and repeat in April - July - October. After a 200 point drop, I can't agree with this fully. Those calls are absolutely decimated no matter when they were opened. Just look at the OI. You have almost 200k between the 600, 650 and 700 calls. Even people who back in the spring opened up calls at 500 have been crushed. Every spread opened up since May is worth next to nothing now. There's little value in wiping clean what's left. However if they wrote the calls they made lots of money. I think they started to sell the stock for many reasons and it caused a stamped to the exits for two months. if they start to buy up the stock, they could cause an opposite stamped of buying. Last time we moved 90 points in 8 trading days. This time the move will be even bigger. They can't afford that so they are simply waiting. After OE I think we start to move up. How do I know that? Because I have seen it happen every Month for the last 3 years.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 20:38:46 GMT -8
Don't like rummaging through Apple's 10-k, but I found the nugget. "As of September 29, 2012, the Company had deferred tax assets arising from deductible temporary differences, tax losses, and tax credits of $4.0 billion, and deferred tax liabilities of $14.9 billion." This is earnings waiting to show up.
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Post by prazan on Jan 9, 2013 20:40:37 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 20:40:50 GMT -8
A more interesting question is why does Apple overcharge internationally for their top end iPhone models (compared to USA prices & after sales taxes are accounted for)? Yet for the bottom end model, the iPhone 4, pricing is often better than the US pricing? This pricing situation remains in place through the entire length of the product cycle, even after supply has caught up with demand for the top model. Prices of unsubsidised iPhones: (In US Dollars, after local sales taxes removed) Country ip4 ip4S ip5 USA $450 $549 $649 UK $425 $599 $705 China $422 $614 $723 Australia $429 $648 $763 New Zlnd $438 $657 $766 Along the same lines from the wall street cheat sheet (the numbers are a little different in some places but you point is the same) "In the U.S., an iPhone 5 without a contract costs $649, the iPhone 4S is available for $549, and the iPhone 4 sells for $450. By comparison, in China, which is being touted as one of the biggest potential markets for the rumored devise, an unlocked iPhone 5 currently costs $840. The iPhone 4S sells for $713, while the iPhone 4 costs $491. In Sweden, a new iPhone 5 without a contract comes for $918, the 4S for $735 and the 4 for $505. In Singapore, the prices are $771, $641, and $478, respectively, while in Italy they are $955, $824, and $562 respectively. Things are even worse in Brazil, which has a heavy import tax and where an unlocked iPhone 4S costs $983. The iPhone 5 is not available in that country through Apple’s online store yet, but even with a carrier contract it starts at $628." Yes - it looks like their numbers are the full local prices after VAT has been added. i don't think its right to compare the prices like that as it can skew the data too much, seeing as those Apple US prices do not include sales taxes present in many US states. Best to compare apples to apples For instance my figures show the iPhone 4 is actually sold CHEAPER internationally by Apple, whereas the numbers quoted above wrongly say its more EXPENSIVE. Completely different conclusions.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 20:53:29 GMT -8
Ad hominem An ad hominem argument is any that attempts to counter anotherÂ’s claims or conclusions by attacking the person, rather than addressing the argument itself. But is questioning someone's qualifications really an ad hominem? If a pediatrician wants to do brain surgery on me, and I say, "dude, you're a pediatrician, not a brain surgeon," that actually goes toward his abilities, not his character. If one says, "but Redler is a known puppy kicker" would be an ad hominem. If one says, "but Redler is a technician, not a fundamental analyst" is a fair criticism, absent a known expertise or track record WRT Apple fundamentals. I'm agnostic on Redler impersonating a FA guy, BTW, since we have no shortages of charlatans all over the Apple blabosphere doing so. Frankly, I think one of the huge shortcomings of TA guys is their ignoring the fundamental elephants in the room. That, and it's total BS. Ad Hominen doesn't question someone's qualifications. It's an example of how someone moves the focus of the argument FROM the point of the disagreement (Scott's comments on how apple could move the stock) TO attacking the person making the assertion (just an anonymous poster on a board comment ). Truly I have a lot of respect for Scott too and my only point was we were getting away from the claims he made by bringing up the above and his qualifications etc... instead of the actual merits of what he said apple should do.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 20:55:17 GMT -8
Don't like rummaging through Apple's 10-k, but I found the nugget. "As of September 29, 2012, the Company had deferred tax assets arising from deductible temporary differences, tax losses, and tax credits of $4.0 billion, and deferred tax liabilities of $14.9 billion." This is earnings waiting to show up. So this would show up suddenly as earnings if: a) Apple repatriates the cash after the US passes a temporary tax exemption/reduced tax rate for overseas profits (unlikely under Obama?), or b) Apple decides the profits are to be permanently reinvested overseas (not great for PR purposes, but excellent for shareholders). Does that sound about right?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 21:05:25 GMT -8
A more interesting question is why does Apple overcharge internationally for their top end iPhone models (compared to USA prices & after sales taxes are accounted for)? Yet for the bottom end model, the iPhone 4, pricing is often better than the US pricing? This pricing situation remains in place through the entire length of the product cycle, even after supply has caught up with demand for the top model. Prices of unsubsidised iPhones: (In US Dollars, after local sales taxes removed) Country ip4 ip4S ip5 USA $450 $549 $649 UK $425 $599 $705 China $422 $614 $723 Australia $429 $648 $763 New Zlnd $438 $657 $766 Overcharging is an act of charging more than the customer Ina's agreed. On the other hand, charging what the market will bear is called competitive capitalism. In every case, the purchaser of an Apple product knows exactly what they are getting, and not paying a dime more than agreed. Overcharging in the context as used by yourself, is based on the concept that the seller is only entitled to what an unengaged third party believes they have earned. This attitude leads to various socialist precepts including redistribution of wealth and progressive tax rates (because the wealthy can afford to pay more), and has nothing to do with "fairness". Value is that which a ready, willing and able buyer and seller agree.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 21:07:30 GMT -8
We know he liked to drive them, often without a license plate. Do we ever. "Park Different."
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 21:15:47 GMT -8
Don't like rummaging through Apple's 10-k, but I found the nugget. "As of September 29, 2012, the Company had deferred tax assets arising from deductible temporary differences, tax losses, and tax credits of $4.0 billion, and deferred tax liabilities of $14.9 billion." This is earnings waiting to show up. So this would show up suddenly as earnings if: a) Apple repatriates the cash after the US passes a temporary tax exemption/reduced tax rate for overseas profits (unlikely under Obama?), or b) Apple decides the profits are to be permanently reinvested overseas (not great for PR purposes, but excellent for shareholders). Does that sound about right? Yes to both. This is one of those things that truly disgust me. That 15 billion would make the ttm explode. I thought at one time there was a chance to get the money back, there is no chance now. What I do not understand is the high rate Apple is providing for, almost 19%. The tax provision has gotten to high, just like the cash pile. Hey, at least they are consistent.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 21:20:22 GMT -8
And how about the reverse? Apple is a tax cheat inflating earnings because it doesn't provision for repatriation?
You know the FUDsters would take that angle. Heck, you might have even seen Congressional hearings.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 21:24:15 GMT -8
A more interesting question is why does Apple overcharge internationally for their top end iPhone models (compared to USA prices & after sales taxes are accounted for)? Yet for the bottom end model, the iPhone 4, pricing is often better than the US pricing? This pricing situation remains in place through the entire length of the product cycle, even after supply has caught up with demand for the top model. Prices of unsubsidised iPhones: (In US Dollars, after local sales taxes removed) Country ip4 ip4S ip5 USA $450 $549 $649 UK $425 $599 $705 China $422 $614 $723 Australia $429 $648 $763 New Zlnd $438 $657 $766 Overcharging is an act of charging more than the customer Ina's agreed. On the other hand, charging what the market will bear is called competitive capitalism. In every case, the purchaser of an Apple product knows exactly what they are getting, and not paying a dime more than agreed. Overcharging in the context as used by yourself, is based on the concept that the seller is only entitled to what an unengaged third party believes they have earned. This attitude leads to various socialists precepts including redistribution of wealth and progressive tax rates (because the wealthy can afford to pay more), and has nothing to do with "fairness". Value is that which a ready, willing and able buyer and seller agree. Apologies Gregg and to anyone else i may have confused - I used the wrong word. I in no way was implying that Apple was being evil or what have you - I was just trying to highlight the international "Price difference" both HIGHER & LOWER (depending on the model) - and was wondering 2 things: Why has apple done this? and does it mean iPhone ASP may be higher than current predictions think?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 21:30:33 GMT -8
Maybe the more precise term, for future reference, would be "price difference" as you said, or "usually charges more than in the US [after taking out VAT and other taxes/import duties/whatever]".
All I know is, there's a reason for this, and it's probably not any kind of pricing asymmetry that the competition can take advantage of relative to markets where iPhone pricing is "normal" such as the US.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 9, 2013 21:40:15 GMT -8
Like I said, there are multiple iPod models. This is not new for them. They addressed all segments of the market and are now basically the only player in the market. I have no doubts they will address more of the smartphone market than they do today while upholding quality. The ecosystem in itself is a major factor in quality. "You can tell where they shop". Care to explain that? Don't take it personally. Anyone who disagrees with Gregg is threatened to be put on his ignore list or accused of being intellectually/analytically inferior.
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Post by BillH on Jan 9, 2013 21:42:30 GMT -8
At this point I don't care if it goes to zero but I would just like a rational cohesive response as to why it's trading like this and nothing I have read tells me that it should be collapsing. If you say it's technical then so be it...why bother with EPS or GM or anything else because it doesn't mean crap. It's just absurd at this point....like someone really wants to punish this stock for no apparent reason. It's trading like this because the world has a really difficult time seeing change and an even more difficult time embracing it. Apple has turned just about everything that most everyone believed right on it's ear. 1.) The power of Microsoft 2.) Being successful on the consumer side while ignoring enterprise. 3.) How difficult it is to build a retail presence. 4.) The power of the record labels 5.) How easy it is to replicate electronic goods 6.) The need for a conventional command and control structure 7.) How difficult it is to build a handset. (Motorola. "They're not going to be able to just walk right in") 8.) America's inability to build a business in China. The above list is without really trying and could probably be extended to at least 25 major talking points if one had the desire. In short, they've proved just about everyone wrong but no one is up to admitting it so the recalculation of where this is going still hasn't taken place. That is but one rational and cohesive response. I'm sure there are many many more. My own belief is that my patience and Apples revenue growth will make the wait worthwhile.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 21:43:59 GMT -8
Like I said, there are multiple iPod models. This is not new for them. They addressed all segments of the market and are now basically the only player in the market. I have no doubts they will address more of the smartphone market than they do today while upholding quality. The ecosystem in itself is a major factor in quality. "You can tell where they shop". Care to explain that? Don't take it personally. Anyone who disagrees with Gregg is threatened to be put on his ignore list or accused of being intellectually/analytically inferior. Come join me. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2013 21:45:06 GMT -8
+1 on that last part BillH. This is the most blatant build for the future quarter from Apple I've seen, maybe ever.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 21:45:18 GMT -8
There is but one rational and cohesive response. I'm sure there are many many more. My own belief is that my patience and Apples revenue growth will make the wait worthwhile. Are you lost? ;D
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 21:48:59 GMT -8
Apologies Gregg and to anyone else i may have confused - I used the wrong word. I in no way was implying that Apple was being evil or what have you - I was just trying to highlight the international "Price difference" both HIGHER & LOWER (depending on the model) - and was wondering 2 things: Why has apple done this? and does it mean iPhone ASP may be higher than current predictions think? Apologies not needed. Apple charges what it does because market conditions allow it to do so. If there was a disconnect with market conditions (what the market will bear), the competition would swoop in to exploit an advantage. I'll bet that if you scrutinized the pricing of Samsung products to the same extent, you'd find the same deltas in the same geographic areas. Note that Apple's competitors RAISED their prices to match Apple's their sales would come to a complete halt. That's because, no matter what the buyer of a competing product says, they are buying price, not value. That's what killed so many PC manufacturers. They innovated nothing, they differentiated nothing. The ONLY thing they had to compete with was price, and in the end the customer suffered. Look at what you can buy a new DELL, Motorola, HP, Lenovo, RIMM, HTC, Nokia, for (sales declining), and what Apple is able to command in the same market (sales expanding). People do not trade down. They trade their money up for items of greater value than their money. The time for a lower priced iPhone will come when the competition matches Apple quality at their lower price point. You'll know when that happens when Apple share begins to decline. Right now Apple share is in ascendency. As long as Apple continues to innovate as it has sustained share decline isn't going to happen anytime soon.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 9, 2013 21:49:52 GMT -8
Heck, I was against the mini, and have always scorned the iphone mini thought. I do not believe Apple releases a low end phone in the US/Europe. Maybe in developing countries.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 21:55:35 GMT -8
Like I said, there are multiple iPod models. This is not new for them. They addressed all segments of the market and are now basically the only player in the market. I have no doubts they will address more of the smartphone market than they do today while upholding quality. The ecosystem in itself is a major factor in quality. "You can tell where they shop". Care to explain that? Don't take it personally. Anyone who disagrees with Gregg is threatened to be put on his ignore list or accused of being intellectually/analytically inferior. Yeahhhh, maybe. I enjoy explaining my positions/thoughts as long as the questioner listens. I am not a patient person, and although I will give the eager my time, I don't suffer fools. Agreeing is not a prerequisite, although it eliminates a lot of problems ;D
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Post by BillH on Jan 9, 2013 22:02:28 GMT -8
There is but one rational and cohesive response. I'm sure there are many many more. My own belief is that my patience and Apples revenue growth will make the wait worthwhile. Are you lost? ;D Not all who wander are lost. Lurking mostly. I said back in October that I didn't like the feel of the market/fiscal cliff/can't even remember the third. I haven't changed my mind entirely but it's starting to feel a LOT better. Loved the way the tax thing shook out and am even a bit bullish that the spending side may get some rational behavior as well. Since I'm here and haven't joined in the fray re: the iPhone number I might at well get in my 2cents. Remember Horace saying that iPhone production was doubling with each new iteration? I still believe that it may be happening. The new iPhone design (while clearly challenging) eliminated the need for the low speed/volume machining of the stainless antenna band if I'm not mistaken. (Pat's?) If that's true it would explain the early expansion into many more markets this go around. Meanwhile, Peter is free to give his low ball guidance hiding behind the difference between believing your ability to ramp to scale and knowing it. In short, I believe we'll have a repeat of last years holiday surprise. (followed shortly by the fudsters claiming an even larger coming demand fall off as consumers wait for the next generation)
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