Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Mar 31, 2020 2:42:33 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Mar 31, 2020 3:02:19 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Mar 31, 2020 3:06:36 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 31, 2020 6:36:33 GMT -8
Thanks Dave, for starting today's thread.
Let's keep politics out of the daily thread today. Like always, choose to not post it here at the AAPL finance board, or put it in the Dungeon if you really must, though at times it seems like even the existence of that area in a place like this makes things degrade and spill over.
AAPL is up, again. I can admit that it's hard to pick, and buy at, the absolute bottom. AAPL is still 20% off it's top (or 25% to recover to there), and the S&P is 22% off (nearly 30% gain needed to get there). The doom and gloom, or rather the related unknowns and fear, that still exists with this virus makes it seem implausible that the low is in. But as might be said by that crazy character that I'm loving on "The Morning Show", "That's what makes it so fun!"
I was starting to see a path out of this, looking at going risk-on and adding a ~20% position. (Borrowing is cheap at 1.35%, and IB is even less)
Often there is another dip down when digging out of these things, maybe a 50% retrace. It didn't happen yesterday or today, though the 5 day chart shows the dip or lower start each day. That would be all of the build up of negativity and fear overnight, or it could just be people selling off for margin calls. Either way, it's interesting to see the similarity in the patterns.
Careful out there. It's still a major volatility cycle out there, even with a calming 5 days. But it's that 7th wave that will get you.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Mar 31, 2020 6:56:01 GMT -8
Don’t forget that gap from a few days ago. I would like to see it fill sooner rather than later. As they say “Mind the gap”.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Mar 31, 2020 7:21:54 GMT -8
Thanks Dave - good luck on your trades 4aapl - I think anything you buy under $300 - with a 5 year time horizon is a good buy.
Also interesting to see the story on some budget iPhone cases showing up in retailers, and esp. great news about the fall launch still on. This is where Tim Cook's supply chain triage skills can really shine - good luck all.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 31, 2020 7:33:49 GMT -8
Thanks Dave - good luck on your trades 4aapl - I think anything you buy under $300 - with a 5 year time horizon is a good buy. It was the combination of looking at my notes and seeing I sold some at about $243 and then $271 on the way up. That was definitely not at the top in retrospect, but with more obvious head room now instead of being limited by ranges the stock saw in the past, it's actually less risky in some ways to buy a little extra now, and different in others. But this is all just playing around, while reaffirming that it's wise to not sell on the way down and try to buy on the way back up, unless you can do one or both of those consistently early. Some say they can or even think they can, but the proof is in the pudding. OTOH, buying a little extra while still down, or switching around investments a little, is a lot easier. And if it all works out, you can still make a little bonus off it all.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Mar 31, 2020 7:34:46 GMT -8
one thing we can all (?) agree on is: good riddance to this awful month and quarter
i'm not buying or selling anything today; have cash to lever up in case of a retrace to bottom (or new lows) but enough longs to profit from a sustained recovery
glta
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Post by hyci004 on Mar 31, 2020 7:47:17 GMT -8
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Post by BillH on Mar 31, 2020 21:03:20 GMT -8
Thanks for linking this. Passed this on to my daughter who is stumbling along much the same career path. Sadly not all companies treat their employees as well as Apple in this regard.
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