Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Apr 1, 2020 2:46:04 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Apr 1, 2020 3:34:36 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 1, 2020 8:17:06 GMT -8
It's the 13th day of homeschooling here. The trampoline was set up in the snow to give plenty of active time, and aside from fewer noise-proof areas than needed, and the high-computational needs of some online apps that really shouldn't need it (MS Teams), the open-plan office space is working ok.
Once in a while some notable quotes are heard, including:
"China need to hurry up and get back in business", with the frustration of Nintendo Switches being sold out everywhere, and the ones starting to show up being listed for a premium at $399 instead of $299.
"Daddy, why does hair turn grey?", by the inquisitive 3rd grader.
And a bunch of others I'm apparently too old to remember, though it is slowly coming around that I do math all day long, and so the "nobody uses this stuff!" statements might be false.
Like JD's fall-time class addition, I plan to inject some lesson plans about compounding interest. Everyone understands math concepts, when you put them in terms of cookies, or for fractions as slices of a pizza or cake.
Fun times. And with the snow melting, the outdoor playhouse addition and gardening/landscaping courses are sure to be a blast.
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Post by firestorm on Apr 1, 2020 8:56:14 GMT -8
It's the 13th day of homeschooling here. The trampoline was set up in the snow to give plenty of active time, and aside from fewer noise-proof areas than needed, and the high-computational needs of some online apps that really shouldn't need it (MS Teams), the open-plan office space is working ok. Once in a while some notable quotes are heard, including: "China need to hurry up and get back in business", with the frustration of Nintendo Switches being sold out everywhere, and the ones starting to show up being listed for a premium at $399 instead of $299. "Daddy, why does hair turn grey?", by the inquisitive 3rd grader. And a bunch of others I'm apparently too old to remember, though it is slowly coming around that I do math all day long, and so the "nobody uses this stuff!" statements might be false. Like JD's fall-time class addition, I plan to inject some lesson plans about compounding interest. Everyone understands math concepts, when you put them in terms of cookies, or for fractions as slices of a pizza or cake. Fun times. And with the snow melting, the outdoor playhouse addition and gardening/landscaping courses are sure to be a blast. With the lesson on compounding interest, you might use the metaphor of a rapidly spreading virus.
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Post by hyci004 on Apr 1, 2020 9:43:23 GMT -8
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Apr 1, 2020 9:48:15 GMT -8
Sold (to open) some Apple Dec 18, 2020 puts at various strike prices. Also trying to increase my Jan '22 bull call spread position.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 1, 2020 9:48:52 GMT -8
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Post by longsince98 on Apr 1, 2020 10:13:16 GMT -8
From the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, thru MDN, via CNN:
“New research pegs COVID-19 death rate at 0.66%
“For age groups younger than 40, the death rate was never higher than 0.16%, according to the study”
New research pegs COVID-19 death rate at 0.66% Wednesday, April 1, 2020 12:53 pm The question of how many people die after being infected with SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, the COVID-19 death rate, has been a moving target as testing and data, especially suspect early and continuing data out of China where the outbreak began, was incomplete.
New research, which takes into account milder cases that often go undiagnosed, shows the COVID-19 death rate is significantly lower than earlier rough estimates.
Arman Azad for CNN:
The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.
In this study, researchers tried to estimate the true “infection fatality rate.” In other words, out of everybody infected — not just those sick enough to get tested — how many people will die?
Approximately 7.8% of those 80 or older estimated to die after infection. And deaths were estimated to be exceedingly rare in children younger than 9, with a fatality rate of just 0.00161%. For age groups younger than 40, the death rate was never higher than 0.16%, according to the study… “There might be outlying cases that get a lot of media attention, but our analysis very clearly shows that at aged 50 and over, hospitalisation is much more likely than in those under 50, and a greater proportion of cases are likely to be fatal,” said Azra Ghani, a professor at Imperial College London and an author of the study, in a statement.
MDN Take: Even though most people who understand basic math figured that the early COVID-19 death rate estimates were likely far too high, this is still relatively good news, certainly compared to early estimates. However, without a vaccine, COVID-19 is still far more potent than even a severe flu season (on average, in the U.S., the mortality rate for influenza is 0.1%). Social distancing, staying home, proper and frequent handwashing, etc. is imperative! More info on the Prevention & Treatment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) via the U.S. CDC is here.
The full research report can be found here: “Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis” – The Lancet Infectious Diseases.
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Post by firestorm on Apr 1, 2020 10:16:27 GMT -8
It may be too soon to tell, but it really bothered me to see all the rosy opinions that the stock market might just bounce back quickly. I just don't see it, with all the carnage going on. But one optimistic sign: bulldozers broke ground on a new Dollar General store in my tiny town this week. So someone is intending to make money off the depression.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 1, 2020 10:47:31 GMT -8
It's the 13th day of homeschooling here. The trampoline was set up in the snow to give plenty of active time, and aside from fewer noise-proof areas than needed, and the high-computational needs of some online apps that really shouldn't need it (MS Teams), the open-plan office space is working ok. Once in a while some notable quotes are heard, including: "China need to hurry up and get back in business", with the frustration of Nintendo Switches being sold out everywhere, and the ones starting to show up being listed for a premium at $399 instead of $299. "Daddy, why does hair turn grey?", by the inquisitive 3rd grader. And a bunch of others I'm apparently too old to remember, though it is slowly coming around that I do math all day long, and so the "nobody uses this stuff!" statements might be false. Like JD's fall-time class addition, I plan to inject some lesson plans about compounding interest. Everyone understands math concepts, when you put them in terms of cookies, or for fractions as slices of a pizza or cake. Fun times. And with the snow melting, the outdoor playhouse addition and gardening/landscaping courses are sure to be a blast. With the lesson on compounding interest, you might use the metaphor of a rapidly spreading virus. Admittedly I am an engineer, not an educator, so I don't have formal training in this. But things have changed, and they've found that positive reinforcement works better than negative reinforcement. The kids will learn it a lot quicker associating it with pizza and cookies, than giving a lecture to the class on why Tomi, Jan-e, and Seven are out today. "Wash your hands, class" Names are a bit screwed up these days too, but that's a different topic.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 1, 2020 11:05:50 GMT -8
Sold (to open) some Apple Dec 18, 2020 puts at various strike prices. Also trying to increase my Jan '22 bull call spread position. Tempting to buy some more AAPL and SPY, but after 4.5 days of upward movement, I'd half expect at least another day of downward movement. Yes, things are ugly out there, and as all the headlines are saying, everyone at the press conference yesterday was pointing out that the virus outcome will be ugly for at least the next 1-2 weeks. At the same time, as models get ugly but more defined, and as they get more people to help out, the downside does become more defined. At some point one can say something like "there's a 90% probability that these 8 of 10 areas will see no worse than a 50% cut to earnings for the worst 4 months". With stock prices being forward looking, while also overreacting in both directions, once you have more quantifying details, you can make better predictions. All would do better with the health side making a solid step in the right direction. But even before that, it is possible for the finance side to make guesses, and theoretically, the more educated the guesses are, the higher probability that they are accurate. Back to AAPL and SPY, there's a lot of unknowns in the shorter term. The further out you can hold it to, at a minimum, the easier it is to see a probable positive future. Looking 5 years out, what's the probability of both securities at least reaching a 10% annualized total return? Or 8%, or 12%?
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Post by nwjade on Apr 1, 2020 11:37:36 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 1, 2020 12:06:43 GMT -8
Admittedly I am an engineer, not an educator, so I don't have formal training in this. But things have changed, and they've found that positive reinforcement works better than negative reinforcement. Well, considering I've been seeing the results of K-12 "education" for the past 24 years, I'm going to have to disagree, and call for a return to the three "R's," Reading, Ritin', Rithmetic, beat your butt with a hickory stick! Speaking of bad rithmetic, Here's the latest from NY: Let's hope those US projections are similarly overblown. Under-promise, over deliver.
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Post by david on Apr 1, 2020 12:11:55 GMT -8
From the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, thru MDN, via CNN: “New research pegs COVID-19 death rate at 0.66% ... Somebody tell Andrew Cuomo to stop over-reacting. /s Seriously, though, I have to question this conclusion. The ratio of world deaths to world cases today is 5.08% (46,252/911,308). It's been rising steadily for at least the last two weeks from about 4% at that time. For 0.66% to be correct, then at least 87% of infections would have to go unreported. I have my doubts.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 1, 2020 12:19:14 GMT -8
Even if the death rate is below 1% the problem is how contagious it is.
If society is reopened and the social distancing measures ended, scientists expect 30-70% of the population to eventually get the virus. Let's say 50% of the population gets it. Do the math on that with any death rate you like, and you see the seriousness of the problem.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 1, 2020 12:21:03 GMT -8
Adding: the death rate is only part of the problem. 5% of people end up in critical condition. So even if you don't die, you could be in the ICU for weeks in a near death state before eventually recovering. No one wants to go through that.
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Post by pauls on Apr 1, 2020 12:26:08 GMT -8
edit
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Post by pauls on Apr 1, 2020 12:27:42 GMT -8
Hahaha! Excellent. BTW, I just re-watched original Pink Panther ('63), so good, so helpful.
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Post by david on Apr 1, 2020 12:32:02 GMT -8
Admittedly I am an engineer, not an educator, so I don't have formal training in this. But things have changed, and they've found that positive reinforcement works better than negative reinforcement. Well, considering I've been seeing the results of K-12 "education" for the past 24 years, I'm going to have to disagree, and call for a return to the three "R's," Reading, Ritin', Rithmetic, beat your butt with a hickory stick! Speaking of bad rithmetic, Here's the latest from NY: Let's hope those US projections are similarly overblown. Under-promise, over deliver. "Other highlights from the governor’s morning briefing in Albany: Confirmed cases: 83,712, up from 75,795. New York City cases: 47,349, up from 43,139. Currently hospitalized: 12,226, up from 10,929. In intensive care: 3,022, up from 2,710. The latest projections for the state put the peak of the outbreak at the end of this month." -https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html Good article, by the way.
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Post by firestorm on Apr 1, 2020 17:30:58 GMT -8
Adding: the death rate is only part of the problem. 5% of people end up in critical condition. So even if you don't die, you could be in the ICU for weeks in a near death state before eventually recovering. No one wants to go through that. It also appears that "recovery" might be living with permanent lung damage in a lot of cases. This is not your seasonal flu, even though some want to believe it is.
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Post by hledgard on Apr 1, 2020 18:23:15 GMT -8
It is definitely more serious than I ever thought.
The question I have is "is shutting down the country really helping?" If the cat is out of the bag, won't everyone be exposed?
If a boat has 10 leaks, and you fix 7, the boat will still stillsink.
Is this a bad analogy?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 1, 2020 18:29:30 GMT -8
If a boat has 10 leaks, and you fix 7, the boat will still stillsink. Is this a bad analogy? Yep, it is. That's what they are hoping now, to slow the spread so the hospitals can still handle the number of people at a time. Or, flattening the curve. Think of commute traffic in a busy place. Sure, you want to get fewer cars on the road, but also spreading those cars over a larger timeframe helps keep things moving.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 1, 2020 18:32:01 GMT -8
This article from yesterday, citing a Bloomberg, says that the iPhone 12's remain on track, while pointing out the ramp up is normally in the summertime. That brings it all back to R&D and demand.
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Post by Luckychoices on Apr 1, 2020 21:15:24 GMT -8
It is definitely more serious than I ever thought. But it's not more serious than we've been trying to tell you. A couple of days ago, when you said, "I just go everywhere. Believe the cat is out of the bag. Believe I have been exposed, and everyone soon will be too.", we were trying to suggest to you that what you were doing is what's caused the virus to spread. The question I have is "is shutting down the country really helping?" If the cat is out of the bag, won't everyone be exposed? People are getting coronavirus by the following means: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - How it spreadsPerson-to-person spread The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.
• Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet). • Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.
Can someone spread the virus without being sick? • People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest). • Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.
Spread from contact with contaminated surfaces or objects It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.======= So, the bottom line is to stay at least 6' away from others who are not in your immediate family and the very best way to insure that happens is to shelter in place...stay home. Only venture out, as required, to obtain groceries, etc. If a boat has 10 leaks, and you fix 7, the boat will still stillsink. Is this a bad analogy? No, not bad, terrible. It doesn't come anywhere close to being analogous to the Coronavirus crisis. Anyone, at any age, can contact coronavirus and die from it. Most will be very sick, but will eventually recover. However, some of those who recover, will have suffered permanent lung damage. Again, the best way to avoid *spreading* the virus is not to go about business-as-usual, as is, unfortunately, still being done in too many places in the country. I live in California and our governor issued a statewide shelter-in-place on March 19, about 10 days ago. Considering the seriousness of the coronavirus threat, the number of people who have died and will die because of it, we would be much safer today if all 50 states had issued and enforced that order in early February, IMO.
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