Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Apr 13, 2020 3:13:25 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Apr 13, 2020 3:23:50 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Apr 13, 2020 3:33:47 GMT -8
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Apr 13, 2020 6:38:37 GMT -8
Well that’s interesting... the USA is open on Easter Monday...huh, I thought that was a universal holiday (for those nations that bought into the New Testament). We have both Friday and Monday off. You (the USA) should take more time off - it’s good for you!
Bit of a mix of green and red out there.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 13, 2020 11:42:45 GMT -8
I don't think most people here these days care too much about short term trades, but since I wrote that I bought on the 3rd for $240.1, I'll finish the trade by having just sold for $270.9, for a 12.8% gain in a week and a half.
While I don't think AAPL will get back down to $240, or $212, again this year, it's all a probability thing, with a lot of unknowns. While the virus is just barely starting to wind down, that's with a lot of people trying, and a lot of things sidelined. While they optimistic side of my thinks a big portion of the economy can come back online relatively well, especially if portions are pushed back over a couple weeks or more as needed/justified, there is still a lot of possibility for downside, and there will be portions that aren't so quick to bounce back. With how quickly a dollar earned transfers over to a dollar spent (I think the rule of thumb is that it jumps around 7 times), even a weakness in only limited areas will carryover to other areas.
I'd like to hear from Apple earnings in a week and a half that Apple is still selling a decent amount, and that factories are ready both for expected and better than expected orders. But there is a decent chance that things might be worse than that, or that the economy is slow to regain.
So, I'll take a tiny bit of risk off the table, ready to buy back in if a dip back down to $255 on non-black swan news happens, though also happy to take the gain while potentially missing out on further short term gains. It's volatile out there, and will continue to be so. And look at that, AAPL up another $1.5 while I wrote that.
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Post by hyci004 on Apr 13, 2020 12:29:52 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 13, 2020 13:03:53 GMT -8
While I like that news, that number is so trivial to be unimportant. 10,000 A quick google search says in the xmas quarter Apple sold 72,900,000 iPhones. Or, on a non-xmas quarter, it's often in the 35-45M range. One place guesses that 217 Million were sold in 2018. I'm glad that Apple can order more, especially while Huawei lowers their orders. But this quantity is insignificant, even if it's Apple's 'Q4' and means that an additional 10k can be sold just after release. OTOH, it could be Apple buying up production lines, prepaying for this small additional capacity, getting them to have the needed fab equipment for the line, and then utilizing the line to its fullest if all things go as planned. And that would be for a lot more than 10k additional processors in a quarter.
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Post by hyci004 on Apr 13, 2020 14:07:54 GMT -8
While I like that news, that number is so trivial to be unimportant. 10,000 A quick google search says in the xmas quarter Apple sold 72,900,000 iPhones. Or, on a non-xmas quarter, it's often in the 35-45M range. One place guesses that 217 Million were sold in 2018. I'm glad that Apple can order more, especially while Huawei lowers their orders. But this quantity is insignificant, even if it's Apple's 'Q4' and means that an additional 10k can be sold just after release. OTOH, it could be Apple buying up production lines, prepaying for this small additional capacity, getting them to have the needed fab equipment for the line, and then utilizing the line to its fullest if all things go as planned. And that would be for a lot more than 10k additional processors in a quarter. Looks like it is for 10000 wafers. “For a 300 mm diameter wafer, that's probably 20 to 30 million processors total, depending on die size and yield.”
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Post by socal Film Composer on Apr 13, 2020 14:21:16 GMT -8
Tnteresting data point on Cramer's mad money - his chartist says the bottom is in - reason being the retracement move off of similar corrections - hope I can find a link article to share later, but if this is true, is great news, vs. the other shoe dropping.
Doesn't mean is clear sailing from here - but I do see iconic brands - both Apple and Tsla both trading very well today. If we don't revisit the 240, 220 area congrats to all of us who bought down there.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 13, 2020 14:58:26 GMT -8
While I like that news, that number is so trivial to be unimportant. 10,000 A quick google search says in the xmas quarter Apple sold 72,900,000 iPhones. Or, on a non-xmas quarter, it's often in the 35-45M range. One place guesses that 217 Million were sold in 2018. I'm glad that Apple can order more, especially while Huawei lowers their orders. But this quantity is insignificant, even if it's Apple's 'Q4' and means that an additional 10k can be sold just after release. OTOH, it could be Apple buying up production lines, prepaying for this small additional capacity, getting them to have the needed fab equipment for the line, and then utilizing the line to its fullest if all things go as planned. And that would be for a lot more than 10k additional processors in a quarter. Looks like it is for 10000 wafers. “For a 300 mm diameter wafer, that's probably 20 to 30 million processors total, depending on die size and yield.” A few replies later, the 5M level is probably close to correct, depending on yield and size. (EDIT: if they meant wafers instead of chips, which wasn't what was written, so is a speculation onto of a rumor) BUT, that's a couple guesses on top of a rumor post that presumably has incorrect wording. It's getting blurrier and blurrier. OTOH, Apple being interested in buying more capacity, no matter the increase. That's good to hear. Volatility will continue. AAPL is where it was 4 months ago, at the start of December. Not too bad, all things considered.
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Post by hyci004 on Apr 13, 2020 16:32:46 GMT -8
Looks like it is for 10000 wafers. “For a 300 mm diameter wafer, that's probably 20 to 30 million processors total, depending on die size and yield.” A few replies later, the 5M level is probably close to correct, depending on yield and size. BUT, that's a couple guesses on top of a rumor post that presumably has incorrect wording. It's getting blurrier and blurrier. OTOH, Apple being interested in buying more capacity, no matter the increase. That's good to hear. Volatility will continue. AAPL is where it was 4 months ago, at the start of December. Not too bad, all things considered. QSMC probably gave Apple a good discount to keep the 5nm fab running.
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Apr 13, 2020 16:41:07 GMT -8
Tnteresting data point on Cramer's mad money - his chartist says the bottom is in - reason being the retracement move off of similar corrections - hope I can find a link article to share later, but if this is true, is great news, vs. the other shoe dropping. Doesn't mean is clear sailing from here - but I do see iconic brands - both Apple and Tsla both trading very well today. If we don't revisit the 240, 220 area congrats to all of us who bought down there. contrary to the contrarian wisdom here... I actually sold a small portion around the mid $240's But I only did so because I had exceptionally good x/rate (AU/US) to counter the low (relatively!) sell price. First time I have liquidated any AAPL.... felt dirty when I did it... But bought a lot of peace of mind for the uncertain path we are on. Cheers to those who stayed long!!!! ....and didn't snowflake like I did!!!
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