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Post by lance on Jan 11, 2013 7:02:27 GMT -8
Sideways trading continues....
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Post by renee on Jan 11, 2013 7:02:36 GMT -8
Renee, If you'd care to share those lessons in the Lessons Learned thread, I'm sure many of us would appreciate it. Thank you. I will collect/organize my thoughts and post later today.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 11, 2013 7:07:31 GMT -8
Second is how are these option holders keeping the price depressed? If the market makers bought the stock in August to hedge the calls they were selling and the calls are now closed out at a huge discount or worthless, they can now sell the stock to put downward pressure on the price. They may sell the stock for less than they paid, but considering the huge gains they made on the options (and the fact that downward pressure guarantees them further profits on expiring options), they are ahead. As for what will happen next, assuming Aapl can come up with reasonable numbers Jan 23rd, the MM's can simply turn off the negative FUD and up the positive FUD and - presto - a whole new crop of greedy investors will buy new calls. The whole process will begin again. Rinse and repeat. I have lost a lot of money in the last 3 months, but learned some valuable lessons that, hopefully, will help me from making the same mistakes again (stay tuned for my new batch of mistakes in 2013!). Yes that makes sense but I just can't get my head around manipulation for the reasons I mentioned. I do believe a small amount of people could manipulate the media and create a barrage of negative sentiment though especially if people with access to that media have major positions. Knowing Apple does not give many press releases that have financial implications would make that strategy quite risk free of their crap being countered. I do wish Apple would give a preliminary announcement if the news is really good but I know that injects a large amount of uncertainty for another preliminary announcement in future qtrs. Your buying scenario is feasible and yes it would most likely occur after earnings.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 11, 2013 7:10:21 GMT -8
Please realize a few things that would make sense holding this China Mobil deal back. China Mobil has govt. sponsership and ownership. aapl is not only negotiating with Mobil management but govt. politicians. Solely a guess on my part, but perhaps that's why there is the un-issued/public progress report signed by TC and head of Mobil. Graft and payoffs are ingrained in China's way of life. NY Times has been running series of wealthy chinese politicians and their relatives. $'s wouldn't be a problem for aapl, but, though a accepted way of doing business in China, payoffs are illegal for US corps. Well WalMart got away with violating the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in Mexico -- because they didn't know about it... Fortunately, Apple hold itself to a higher standard.
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 11, 2013 7:17:30 GMT -8
Please realize a few things that would make sense holding this China Mobil deal back. China Mobil has govt. sponsership and ownership. aapl is not only negotiating with Mobil management but govt. politicians. Solely a guess on my part, but perhaps that's why there is the un-issued/public progress report signed by TC and head of Mobil. Graft and payoffs are ingrained in China's way of life. NY Times has been running series of wealthy chinese politicians and their relatives. $'s wouldn't be a problem for aapl, but, though a accepted way of doing business in China, payoffs are illegal for US corps. There are many complex issues regarding the deal. However, I don't think payoffs will be one. TC going straight to the top of CM and the gov't depts. Savvy in cutting out the middle men, making the event public enough so it does not go under the radar and multiple trips to show respect. building guanxi is necessary but is it sufficient for a fair deal. CM is rumored to trying to get "special deal". The issue with that is the other carrier might want to renegotiate terms. Samsung is now a legit competitor. Hence, slipper slop. BTW, do folks know that Samsung trades at ~8x fwd PE and have much lower margin expectations?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2013 7:18:17 GMT -8
CM knows it has leverage and the govt behind it. Does it? If CM had leverage, then Apple would have acceded to their demands long ago. Seems to me that they want each other, but neither is willing, or capable, of accepting the other's viewpoint. There have been two major sticking points all along. The first is CM's bastard implementation of GSM. The Chinese government tried to establish a proprietary protocol within China. It didn't work and CM has been left out of the technology loop. The second issue, and probably the most important, is the distribution of iTunes profits. CM wants a share, and Apple ain't giving it.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 11, 2013 7:27:37 GMT -8
Please realize a few things that would make sense holding this China Mobil deal back. China Mobil has govt. sponsership and ownership. aapl is not only negotiating with Mobil management but govt. politicians. Solely a guess on my part, but perhaps that's why there is the un-issued/public progress report signed by TC and head of Mobil. Graft and payoffs are ingrained in China's way of life. NY Times has been running series of wealthy chinese politicians and their relatives. $'s wouldn't be a problem for aapl, but, though a accepted way of doing business in China, payoffs are illegal for US corps. There are many complex issues regarding the deal. However, I don't think payoffs will be one. I too doubt there are payoffs as the difference here is the people normally paid off own the company. Therefore if you look at in purely getting rewarded terms they dont need a payoff, the reward is in the profit sharing deal.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 11, 2013 7:33:25 GMT -8
CM knows it has leverage and the govt behind it. Does it? If CM had leverage, then Apple would have acceded to their demands long ago. Seems to me that they want each other, but neither is willing, or capable, of accepting the other's viewpoint. There have been two major sticking points all along. The first is CM's bastard implementation of GSM. The Chinese government tried to establish a proprietary protocol within China. It didn't work and CM has been left out of the technology loop. The second issue, and probably the most important, is the distribution of iTunes profits. CM wants a share, and Apple ain't giving it. China Mobile knows how popular Apple is and I would imagine there is at least some fear of Unicom and Telefonica increasing market share. Chinese are generally very strategic thinkers and I don't think it has gone unnoticed how the iPhone with AT&T damaged or at least held back Verizon's world domination plans. Apple has a lot of respect in China and they probably know they should not underestimate the what could be factor.
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 11, 2013 7:47:43 GMT -8
CM knows it has leverage and the govt behind it. Does it? If CM had leverage, then Apple would have acceded to their demands long ago. Seems to me that they want each other, but neither is willing, or capable, of accepting the other's viewpoint. There have been two major sticking points all along. The first is CM's bastard implementation of GSM. The Chinese government tried to establish a proprietary protocol within China. It didn't work and CM has been left out of the technology loop. The second issue, and probably the most important, is the distribution of iTunes profits. CM wants a share, and Apple ain't giving it. I agree with the technology issue. The balance of power has been shifting from AAPL to CM. And CM knows it. Note: When AAPL was growing EPS like gang busters no need push for CM. There are over 15-20m iPhone on the CM network and Samsung is doing well in the high end. Growth going forward much harder to come by. Also, CM kind of agnostic whether they buy the phone with them or not. They just want their monthly/pre-paid fee. Apple has stated how important, how fast growing and that it will be the largest market for them. CM is largest carrier - more customers than US population. CM has continued to say they need a mutually beneficial deal. iPhone fever in asia is over. iPhone is the best smartphone but there the Samsung S3 is an legit alternative (and S4 is just around the corner). iTunes profits are worring since this might cause business model changes with all carriers. Hope all does not have do that.
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Post by kloot on Jan 11, 2013 7:56:06 GMT -8
I really, really hope so as this announcement will be big. I really, really hope TC didn't have to give to much to China Mobile I really, really believe the naysayers will claim/insist/know he did and this will cause margin loss therefore a reason not to buy. :-) I really hope it is a fair deal. CM knows it has leverage and the govt behind it. Also CM knows exactly what is going on with its share price and Samsung etc. I hope it is a fair deal and not a quick deal. it can't be "quick" since they've been talking for 4 years. TC has a rep as a tough negotiator, so it will be interesting. they don't want to set any bad precedents.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2013 8:21:39 GMT -8
The balance of power has been shifting from AAPL to CM. And CM knows it. Note: When AAPL was growing EPS like gang busters no need push for CM. There are over 15-20m iPhone on the CM network and Samsung is doing well in the high end. Apple is already selling the iPhone (jailbreaks) to CM customers, and CM isn't getting a dime from those sales. How do you calculate that CM has the advantage in that scenario? You should keep in mind that these iPhones are essentially bricks, because iPhone data does not work on CM's bastard network protocol.
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Post by bryanyc on Jan 11, 2013 8:53:11 GMT -8
BTW, do folks know that Samsung trades at ~8x fwd PE and have much lower margin expectations?[/quote]
No, and that is very interesting information.
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Post by lance on Jan 11, 2013 8:57:00 GMT -8
AAPL looks to be on collision course with the 50 day MA right at the Earnings date or within a day or2 if stock keeps trading sideways to slightly up till then. IE good earnings it will leap the 50 day with ease.
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 11, 2013 9:14:37 GMT -8
The balance of power has been shifting from AAPL to CM. And CM knows it. Note: When AAPL was growing EPS like gang busters no need push for CM. There are over 15-20m iPhone on the CM network and Samsung is doing well in the high end. Apple is already selling the iPhone (jailbreaks) to CM customers, and CM isn't getting a dime from those sales. How do you calculate that CM has the advantage in that scenario? You should keep in mind that these iPhones are essentially bricks, because iPhone data does not work on CM's bastard network protocol. Gregg - it is good have you on this board! (for real). You are right. Over 15m iPhones that CM mobile does not get a dime on the hardware sales on. However, CM does make money from usage. Most mobile phones in china are fully paid for. with an average 10-20 USD bill it would be hard to make the numbers work. The SG S3 is selling well on CM and has TD-SCDMA. CM is doing ok without the iPhone. Apple is ceding share to the S3 and S4. AAPL would really disappoint the market if does not come to a deal this year. Advantage CM. Thankfully, CM would do better with the iPhone to balance out Samsungs power so there is plenty of incentive for a deal. What I am really hoping for a deal for iPhones on their implementation of LTE . CM LTE is a little ways off and there is much uncertainity. However, if AAPL can lock in a long term deal (maybe like Sprints) that would be PE multiple expandiing for AAPL stock. CM wins by having AAPL onboard for the emerging network and helping the network gain credibility and increasing their APRU potential from data charges. AAPL win is obvious. Of course, a version that works on their existing network is good too in the mean time. CM is playing the long game.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 11, 2013 9:27:01 GMT -8
Jon Najarian just spoke about this on CNBC and I had read an article yesterday about it...but here is the tweet he just sent out:
AAPL might be doing deal with NTT DoCoMo. They've got half of Japan's users on that system
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Post by fas550 on Jan 11, 2013 9:29:02 GMT -8
Little early but I like todays price action only because I am comparing to what it could be for a Friday.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 11, 2013 9:35:33 GMT -8
Anybody a bit concerned about increased Nokia/WP8 marketshare? 4.4 million Lumias is close to 10% of what Apple sold and far higher than it was before. Keep in mind this is with limited distribution and exclusive carrier deals, so availability was somewhat limited. These phones are on the higher end so my guess sales are being taken from both Android and iOS. I personally of two people who were planning to get the iPhone 5 but settled on the Lumia (had no interest in Android).
Looks like a new competitor is emerging, although I do realize they're still operating at a loss...
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 11, 2013 9:47:56 GMT -8
Anybody a bit concerned about increased Nokia/WP8 marketshare? 4.4 million Lumias is close to 10% of what Apple sold and far higher than it was before. Keep in mind this is with limited distribution and exclusive carrier deals, so availability was somewhat limited. These phones are on the higher end so my guess sales are being taken from both Android and iOS. I personally of two people who were planning to get the iPhone 5 but settled on the Lumia (had no interest in Android). Looks like a new competitor is emerging, although I do realize they're still operating at a loss... And this is the reason the debate continues as to whether it would be a good strategy to have a less expensive iPhone...should this segment of the market be addressed or not...both sides make good arguments.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 11, 2013 9:48:08 GMT -8
Jon Najarian just spoke about this on CNBC and I had read an article yesterday about it...but here is the tweet he just sent out: AAPL might be doing deal with NTT DoCoMo. They've got half of Japan's users on that system Heard the segment on the radio. Yes they brought up that NTT Docomo is open for talks with Apple (didn't know they weren't) Basically melancholy segment. They did say expectations are so low at this time no one is expecting a major drop. Presenter trying to goad guests into speculating on all the downside with talk of the sentiment getting worse very recently. Already the crap has started that a CM will only mean margin compression because the deal will never be as sweet as with US carriers. Presenter talked about the "iPhone mini" as if the device had already been announced. What a bunch of shit. No mention of fundamentals and of course apple can only go up with a yet to be released unknown device but that doesn't matter because anything will mean margin compression. The guest (Barclays) did put it in perspective though by saying Goog, FB et all had significant drops and they recovered completely with seemingly no news so this is just somewhat norm for a tech company. I need to change the channel when in the car as this crap is about as legit as a Dramality show and is so far away from any honest discussion but simply goading guests to make a one liner they can use in a headline. That BS headline yesterday, Apple needs a CM deal or Else": no one said Or Else. Sorry for the rant and yes I know I shouldn't listen to this shit instead concentrating on making them irrelevant. Hey on the plus side my own personal worse case going into earnings is not the case; Priced for perfection before earnings release. I hate that.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 11, 2013 10:24:05 GMT -8
Jon Najarian just spoke about this on CNBC and I had read an article yesterday about it...but here is the tweet he just sent out: AAPL might be doing deal with NTT DoCoMo. They've got half of Japan's users on that system Heard the segment on the radio. Yes they brought up that NTT Docomo is open for talks with Apple (didn't know they weren't) Basically melancholy segment. They did say expectations are so low at this time no one is expecting a major drop. Presenter trying to goad guests into speculating on all the downside with talk of the sentiment getting worse very recently. Already the crap has started that a CM will only mean margin compression because the deal will never be as sweet as with US carriers. Presenter talked about the "iPhone mini" as if the device had already been announced. What a bunch of shit. No mention of fundamentals and of course apple can only go up with a yet to be released unknown device but that doesn't matter because anything will mean margin compression. The guest (Barclays) did put it in perspective though by saying Goog, FB et all had significant drops and they recovered completely with seemingly no news so this is just somewhat norm for a tech company. I need to change the channel when in the car as this crap is about as legit as a Dramality show and is so far away from any honest discussion but simply goading guests to make a one liner they can use in a headline. That BS headline yesterday, Apple needs a CM deal or Else": no one said Or Else. Sorry for the rant and yes I know I shouldn't listen to this shit instead concentrating on making them irrelevant. Hey on the plus side my own personal worse case going into earnings is not the case; Priced for perfection before earnings release. I hate that. I understand - it's completely addicting and it lures you into listening but if it is any consolation, the guest was Michael Santoli from Barron's. I interviewed him once for a spot on my desk - I passed after one interview. So forget it - not worth the worry. I have come to realize that many people who can't make it in business (ala Blodgett) end up in the media.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 11, 2013 10:31:39 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Jan 11, 2013 10:40:05 GMT -8
Getting really sick of these short squeezes. All they do is remove support that would be there in a sharp move down and delays the inevitable retest of the 500-510 zone. AAPL isn't going on any decent run until we hit that one final time.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 11, 2013 10:56:10 GMT -8
Can't make it in business is a little different than Blodget's lifetime ban from the securities market.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2013 10:56:21 GMT -8
Anybody a bit concerned about increased Nokia/WP8 marketshare? 4.4 million Lumias is close to 10% of what Apple sold and far higher than it was before. Keep in mind this is with limited distribution and exclusive carrier deals, so availability was somewhat limited. These phones are on the higher end so my guess sales are being taken from both Android and iOS. I personally of two people who were planning to get the iPhone 5 but settled on the Lumia (had no interest in Android). Looks like a new competitor is emerging, although I do realize they're still operating at a loss... Apple's iOS ecosystem is a very effective wall garden. Once in, it is very difficult to pry someone out of it. Android doesn't have that stickiness. This is why I predicted a year ago that MSFT will over take Android in share, and rapidly. But the ultimate winner is going to be iOS. Nobody else has a market leading music player, smartphone AND tablet.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 11, 2013 10:58:39 GMT -8
I still had a tab open from 3 weeks ago, 12/20. AAPL was within pennies of the current price, at 521.73!
It's been interesting. I sold a few things in the last days of '12, buying back different positions to keep the money in the game. But of the remaining Jan '13 spreads, I'm only going to make a slight profit. Those darn 500-580's and 590-650's really took the whole thing down nearly to the ground.
OTOH, expiration will free up some funds. The question is if I set them aside for '12 taxes and paying down margin, or do I put part of it back in. I'll probably hold for now, while moving a ROTH around and moving that from stock into conservative spreads. I have enough on the line right now, and even at '12 rates and making sizeable quarterly payments (last '12 one due in a couple days) that tax bill is going to be high. But that's a bill I'd love to have again in the future.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 11, 2013 11:04:05 GMT -8
Been playing with some numbers: Of the Jan 24 2013 call expirations There are 1,193,333 OI in total 600 Strike = 5.88% of the total calls 650 Strike = 4.99% of the total calls 500 - 710 strike = 77.79% of the total
Raw data from Yahoo Finance
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Post by tuffett on Jan 11, 2013 11:28:13 GMT -8
Anybody a bit concerned about increased Nokia/WP8 marketshare? 4.4 million Lumias is close to 10% of what Apple sold and far higher than it was before. Keep in mind this is with limited distribution and exclusive carrier deals, so availability was somewhat limited. These phones are on the higher end so my guess sales are being taken from both Android and iOS. I personally of two people who were planning to get the iPhone 5 but settled on the Lumia (had no interest in Android). Looks like a new competitor is emerging, although I do realize they're still operating at a loss... Apple's iOS ecosystem is a very effective wall garden. Once in, it is very difficult to pry someone out of it. Android doesn't have that stickiness. This is why I predicted a year ago that MSFT will over take Android in share, and rapidly. But the ultimate winner is going to be iOS. Nobody else has a market leading music player, smartphone AND tablet. Agreed that iOS is going to continue to dominate profit share, but this could slow down platform growth in markets that are approaching or have already approached saturation.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 11, 2013 11:29:21 GMT -8
Getting really sick of these short squeezes. All they do is remove support that would be there in a sharp move down and delays the inevitable retest of the 500-510 zone. AAPL isn't going on any decent run until we hit that one final time. when have we had short squeezes recently? other than the fiscal cliff pop & drop, aapl has been slowly trading in this fairly tight channel for about a month now.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 11, 2013 11:35:35 GMT -8
Getting really sick of these short squeezes. All they do is remove support that would be there in a sharp move down and delays the inevitable retest of the 500-510 zone. AAPL isn't going on any decent run until we hit that one final time. when have we had short squeezes recently? other than the fiscal cliff pop & drop, aapl has been slowly trading in this fairly tight channel for about a month now. Pretty much every day this week.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 11, 2013 12:12:20 GMT -8
Worth a look: I question 1) HTH does Rein know how close Apple and CM are to a deal? 2) HTH does Rein know whether iPhone 5 has a CM-compatible radio? 3) To what degree does CU and CT bleed customers from CM because they have the iPhone, and how long can CM let it go on?
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