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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 11, 2013 16:17:18 GMT -8
The bar is open...
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Jan 11, 2013 16:22:46 GMT -8
One more week of torture ahead. Then I predict relief will come. Until the next period of torture.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jan 11, 2013 16:23:29 GMT -8
Just 12 days more...
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 11, 2013 16:25:13 GMT -8
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2013 16:48:15 GMT -8
Meaningless numbers:
Last year Q32011 iPhone shipments were 20 million and Q42011 shipments were 17 million.
The following quarter, Q12012, iPhone shipments were 37 million (which happens to be 20 + 17)
This year Q32012 iPhone shipments were 26 million and Q42012 shipments were 27 million.
If the same thing happens this year we would be at 53 million units for Q12013.
Completely meaningless numbers at the moment, but would become interesting if a pattern formed.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 11, 2013 18:04:42 GMT -8
Meaningless numbers: Last year Q32011 iPhone shipments were 20 million and Q42011 shipments were 17 million. The following quarter, Q12012, iPhone shipments were 37 million (which happens to be 20 + 17) This year Q32012 iPhone shipments were 26 million and Q42012 shipments were 27 million. If the same thing happens this year we would be at 53 million units for Q12013. Completely meaningless numbers at the moment, but would become interesting if a pattern formed. I like the way you think..... And remember, 55 billion dollars of revenue is virtually a given (52 billion guidance plus a minor sandbag....you might even call it a resin bag).... Yes, it would be great if Iphones were the higher proportion of the product mix that produces that 55 billion - higher even than expected, I mean - since they carry the most internal margin, but we will get that revenue, and probably more...one way or the other. With overall GM at 38.5 or above, we are fine... Then its all about the guidance.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 11, 2013 18:27:26 GMT -8
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jan 11, 2013 20:11:27 GMT -8
It's almost time to drop the hammer on fiscal Q2. . (Yeah yeah it's already underway/Q2 earnings is over 3 months out, but it sounds better if you match up the copy)
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 11, 2013 20:54:14 GMT -8
I officially cut all ties to CNBC last night, as I removed The Kudlow Report from my DVR record list... I don't watch CNBC anymore. Occasionally I stumble onto one of their videos online. But they really are the National Enquirer of financial media. HOORAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by cambrose on Jan 11, 2013 21:47:21 GMT -8
After reading the linked Joe Springer article, I decided to calculate the total intrinsic value being retained by option writers for the Jan 19 2013 option chain. It makes sense that the writers would do everything in their power to milk as much value as possible out of the massive open interest. Was surprised by this chart, but checked the code and I believe everything is correct. The x axis shows the closing price at expiration and the y axis is the total intrinsic value (in billions) of the open interest as of Jan 10, 2013 close. Minimum occurs at $600. Attachments:
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Post by cambrose on Jan 11, 2013 22:02:32 GMT -8
Same data with delta values from minimum @ x=600 Attachments:
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Post by cambrose on Jan 11, 2013 22:19:11 GMT -8
Apr 20 2013 chain for comparison... Attachments:
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Post by wheeles on Jan 12, 2013 6:01:52 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 12, 2013 6:50:42 GMT -8
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Post by fariba on Jan 12, 2013 8:42:59 GMT -8
it is reported that Apple would be tripling their Apple Stores in China. The other news is that Apple met with Mobile China that we reported in December that Apple has been secretly working with them for four years now. The problem, as we reported, concerned China Mobile's upgrade to 4G networks. The transition to the new standard may now have been achieved as it appears that a formal deal may have been formalized between Apple and China Mobile.
Taiwan News is reporting today that China Mobile released a statement saying that chairman Xi Guohua and Apple's CEO Tim Cook discussed "bilateral cooperation," and that the "release of other details was barred by a confidentiality agreement between the companies." Their framing of that statement indicates that a deal was struck.
That's also likely why Cook said that China would become Apple's largest market on this same business trip. Securing a deal with Mobile China would definitely make China their number one market over the next year or two. Our December report showed that Mobile China would have a third of their market on 4G in the coming year which works out to a potential target of 233 million subscribers that Apple would be able to sell into. That's a market that's double the current US smartphone subscriber base.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Jan 12, 2013 9:09:39 GMT -8
Is that all a big quote? Link please. And quotes/quote tag too.
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Post by fariba on Jan 12, 2013 9:15:13 GMT -8
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Post by fariba on Jan 12, 2013 9:18:05 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Jan 12, 2013 10:20:16 GMT -8
I officially cut all ties to CNBC last night, as I removed The Kudlow Report from my DVR record list... I don't watch CNBC anymore. Occasionally I stumble onto one of their videos online. But they really are the National Enquirer of financial media. HOORAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ditto, ditto, ditto. The show is frightening ! A gigantic case of biased, self-serving, hyped opinion presented as gospel.
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Post by prazan on Jan 12, 2013 10:21:16 GMT -8
Viva Messi! Barca! Barca! Barca! (It's the weekend, so I can fly my colors)
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 12, 2013 10:36:38 GMT -8
I agree with you and said as much yesterday. TC has been in the press too much dropping hints...I think it's sooner than we think.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 12, 2013 11:06:56 GMT -8
Strong earnings, strong guidance, China Mobile bombshell? One can dream
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Post by sponge on Jan 12, 2013 11:56:59 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 12, 2013 12:10:09 GMT -8
Thank you Spongie - it was great - you made my weekend!
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Post by rickag on Jan 12, 2013 12:22:25 GMT -8
Might as well add fuel to the fire. In addition to Tim Cook in meetings for the second time I seem to remember rumors floating around that Foconn will be keeping some production lines running through Chinese New Year and maybe paying triple overtime.
Certainly would need to if either a NTT Docomo or China Mobile deal is imminent.
Yes, one can dream.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Jan 12, 2013 12:26:51 GMT -8
Without a link...
iPhone 5 and iPad mini are reason enough to keep production running. No China Mobile required, even though it's really only a matter of when. (/VeriPhone)
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Post by aapl4kiki on Jan 12, 2013 13:17:05 GMT -8
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jan 12, 2013 13:39:56 GMT -8
He gets that Apple's set for long-term success, and he can back it up (though a little uniquely). Good enough for me.
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Post by rickag on Jan 12, 2013 15:47:25 GMT -8
Without a link... iPhone 5 and iPad mini are reason enough to keep production running. No China Mobile required, even though it's really only a matter of when. (/VeriPhone) Not sure if you refer to my post about a link, so here you go. iDevice demand forces some of Apple's partners to work through Chinese New YearStrong demand prompts Apple suppliers to work during Chinese New YearThe rumor has it that not only Foxconn working through Chinese New Year but one of th board suppliers will also. I'm not saying this is due to any imminent deals, but as long as there is conjecture out there due to Tim Cook's visits, I am just piling on. I can dream can't I. My best case at the earnings report would be Tim Cook starting off by apologizing for underestimating Foxconn's flexibility and ability to adapt to the rigors of meeting such high standards making possible 55 million iPhone sales and 30 million iPad sales. Then announcing deals with NTT Docomo and China Mobile starting sales January 31st. "To dream the impossible dream[see above] To fight the unbeatable foe[EOs] To bear[as opposed to bulls] with unbearable sorrow[$200 drop] Upon further review I think I need to get back on my meds.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 12, 2013 16:12:34 GMT -8
The commodore ran her carseat over my car charger, rendering 24 of the 30 pins mangled beyond belief...( "why is this car seat sticking? I'll run it back and forth a few times to loosen it up." ) Off to the local AT&T store for a new charger. The place was buzzing on a Saturday afternoon. All scheduling and purchases done on iPads, so things move right along. My manager contact says the period since Christmas has been universally busy, with gift cards being redeemed, plenty of new phones being sold....his mantra is "5, 4s, 4...all good". Family and business plans. He says some corporate clients had new budgets to spend in January and have upgraded phones and added iPads. New money in the game. They can't keep iPad minis in stock. Shipments of two or three dozen every ten days or so....gone quick. Occasionally the 64 gig models will stay on the shelves a bit. He grumps about this because he could sell anything he gets in 16 or 32 gig sizes but he thinks Apple keeps these for their stores. As for the Samsung products, including the S3....he says he used to sell quite a few but not so much now. He thinks android fans go to the Verizon store across the mall. He and his AT&T crew love Apple..
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