|
Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 17, 2013 6:49:27 GMT -8
38 GM guidance is essential.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Jan 17, 2013 7:36:33 GMT -8
I think they will guide around $42B revenues and maybe $10.7 EPS. But the really interesting figure will be GM guidance. I think that guiding a GM of 36% was one of the catalysts which led to the negative sentiment that brought the stock price down below 500. People are not sure whether this is just temporary or whether Apple will not be able to generate GMs above 40% anytime soon again. I would like to see them guide to a GM of 38%. The GM guide should have been expected IMO. Apple had a Hollywood makeover, not just a trip to the barber. The YOY GM for Q2 is 47, Apple really has nowhere to go but down from that level. It was accomplished because of the form factor staying the same, we know that, WS knows it, but rational thought is not permitted when a stock is concerned. If Apple comes in above 39% GM for Q1, which I expect, then it will be hard for PO to come in lower than 38 just because of the economies of scale should have already kicked in and there are no major refreshes in the near future. Plus the iphone mix should maintain its position, maybe even strengthen. It is a shame that Apple is held to such a double standard.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jan 17, 2013 8:24:50 GMT -8
Hm...Oppy could guide in the 37 range at the low end, really. It'll just sound harder to believe. But if the goal is moderating expectations, as it ALWAYS is, I think WS will take it in stride just as long as there's good numbers.
|
|
|
Post by chasmac on Jan 20, 2013 7:25:03 GMT -8
As they get bigger, it becomes harder to predict the reliability/production output, even with less then brand new products IMO. a slight downward pressure is to be expected.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2013 7:56:49 GMT -8
On guidance in general? Unless something changes, we'll hardly even notice. Oppenheimer is a master of sandbagging.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Jan 20, 2013 12:17:26 GMT -8
On guidance in general? Unless something changes, we'll hardly even notice. Oppenheimer is a master of sandbagging. More like the worst CFO of any large company. People can call it sandbagging, I call it intention to deceive and covering his ass.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2013 12:18:19 GMT -8
Yeah, we've been over this MB
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 20, 2013 18:08:34 GMT -8
I'm far more in MB's camp on the CFO issue than not.
Is Peter Oppenheimer a genius or a glorified accountant ? Surely, somebody can do better in the top post. Somebody with vision, leadership and communication with investors.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Jan 20, 2013 18:35:48 GMT -8
I'm far more in MB's camp on the CFO issue than not. Is Peter Oppenheimer a genius or a glorified accountant ? Surely, somebody can do better in the top post. Somebody with vision, leadership and communication with investors. Tetra, One thing that has always disgusted me about Apple's guidance is that when it is released, there are only 10 weeks left in the quarter. Apple knows what its sales rates are and what their projections for sell through are. They also know what/if/when a new product will be released. I really became a PO hater after Q1 2012. To guide to $9 ish and come in at 14 was ridiculous.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jan 21, 2013 5:07:05 GMT -8
Then you don't have very high hopes for iPhone. Apple is ramping up to 200M/yr run rates. Is the 45% smartphone growth rate from last year tanking - will it just be Apple - or both? The rate is slowing, CM would just make me feel more comfortable. NTT Docomo should be closer to offering the iPhone. Not as big but would help.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Jan 21, 2013 7:15:26 GMT -8
The rate is slowing, CM would just make me feel more comfortable. NTT Docomo should be closer to offering the iPhone. Not as big but would help. A reasonable phone in Brazil would be nice also. I thought Apple had established itself down there, what happened?
|
|
|
Post by lobo on Jan 21, 2013 10:15:18 GMT -8
If I remember correctly there is a company in Brazil that already had the rights to the iPhone name in Brazil. I even believe they are offering some cheap knock off soon if not already out there selling it in Brazil. There was some discussion about Apple trying to resolve this issue a couple of months ago. Once again this is just remembering some discussion off the top of my head and needs to be confirmed.
|
|