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Post by nathanstevens on Jan 14, 2013 8:31:23 GMT -8
lower jan to march order might signal that aapl is going preparing to launch new form factor for their iPhone, which might be a bigger screen size. Therfore if view the news from another angle, its a good news. Or Apple might be switching to IGZO screens for the iPhone 5s. Wheeles, That was my first thought when I read this news. Guess who makes IGZO screens? Sharp. Horace wrote a nice post about Apple's huge cap ex, speculating that it went towards bolstering Sharp and their production capacity. www.asymco.com/2012/11/07/recapex-the-curious-case-of-apples-2012-and-2013-capital-expenditures/If one supplier is claiming cuts and Horace's hypothesis is correct, it would be possible that orders are moving to Sharp or iphone5 orders are being reduced as orders for IGZO screens for iphone5s are being ramped up. Benefits of IGZO include thinner screen, narrower bezel, lower power consumption and better touch sensitivity. It would seem to make sense for Apple to switch most devices to this technology as soon as it is ready for prime time. Pure speculation.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 14, 2013 8:32:09 GMT -8
I got a few 495/505 BPS when we began the LOD ( I hope) bounce. What damage could be done was done in the first hour. A quadruple bottom....the 500 call/put wall for this Friday now controls.... You do not think that the massive amount of puts that were supporting AAPL at 500 were not closed when AAPL went under 500? I think they were. We broke support, who knows what happens next.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 14, 2013 8:37:11 GMT -8
My EW-related WAG is that we will target 491-492 for the bottom IF the bottom hasn't already come.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 14, 2013 8:38:09 GMT -8
Wheeles, That was my first thought when I read this news. Guess who makes IGZO screens? Sharp. Pure speculation. The problem is that Sharp is one of the sources "leaking" production cuts. This story has been used over and over with the desired result. Once Apple announces results, all of these story's will just disappear without any accountability. That is the world we live in, tell a lie enough times, people will start to think it is the truth. When the story comes from the most respected financial source on WS, it has credibility.
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Post by firestorm on Jan 14, 2013 8:50:13 GMT -8
Gartner data shows a Mac sales increase of about 5% during the holiday quarter: www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=2301715. Apple was outpaced in % terms by HP and Lenovo; still, the results are impressive at a time when some are modeling a decrease in Mac sales. I was responsible for exactly one of these sales (plus one in the previous quarter and one in the new quarter).
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Post by terps530 on Jan 14, 2013 9:11:26 GMT -8
it's a comical world. Thursday: RIMM gets downgraded to underperform, with a $9 target. Friday: RIMM jumps 15% Monday: RIMM jumps another 10+%.
So RIMM gets downgraded to a target 25% less than where it was trading, and then it goes up 25%+ in the next two days.
yup makes sense
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 9:17:33 GMT -8
it's a comical world. Thursday: RIMM gets downgraded to underperform, with a $9 target. Friday: RIMM jumps 15% Monday: RIMM jumps another 10+%. So RIMM gets downgraded to a target 25% less than where it was trading, and then it goes up 25%+ in the next two days. yup makes sense The sad thing is that BMO was the one who put in the downgrade, yet they were the single largest purchaser of RIMM shares on Thursday and Friday. How this is legal is beyond me. stocktwits.com/message/11411317
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 14, 2013 9:18:43 GMT -8
Again - MB I agree with you on the Samsung media plants. I don't believe in coincidences. I also don't think AAPL should give the media every frigging break down on all products - no one else does. The more you give them, the more ammo with which to screw you. Lastly, the buy back that has been announced is a pimple on one's ass....they need to get serious and announce something meaningful. This is WS people - ...and in case you haven't heard, if your competitors smell blood they move in. Samsung is blasting crap out all day today. You think that is a coincidence? Please! Again, AAPL needs to get on the offensive here in some way....if you don't score points you are not going to win a game. Sorry...enough with Mr. Nice Guy - they finish last.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 14, 2013 9:22:08 GMT -8
This is WS people - ...and in case you haven't heard, if your competitors smell blood they move in. Samsung is blasting crap out all day today. You think that is a coincidence? Please! Again, AAPL needs to get on the offensive here in some way....if you don't score points you are not going to win a game. Sorry...enough with Mr. Nice Guy - they finish last. Totally agree. Unleash the PR.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 14, 2013 9:23:03 GMT -8
Wheeles, That was my first thought when I read this news. Guess who makes IGZO screens? Sharp. Pure speculation. The problem is that Sharp is one of the sources "leaking" production cuts. This story has been used over and over with the desired result. Once Apple announces results, all of these story's will just disappear without any accountability. That is the world we live in, tell a lie enough times, people will start to think it is the truth. When the story comes from the most respected financial source on WS, it has credibility. They are two different products made by Sharp, possibly in different locations. One site may see a drop in orders, but the other (which we don't hear about because that's where Apple's investment is) gets an increase.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 14, 2013 9:25:34 GMT -8
anyone get any shares under 500? I got some just above 500 on the first move down to that level. Although I figured 500 would come under attack, there was no absolute guarantee it would be broken.
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Post by mace on Jan 14, 2013 9:28:34 GMT -8
... I'm looking at Feb 595/600 for 0.30 as a lottery ticket. I like this bet. Brilliant .
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Post by kloot on Jan 14, 2013 9:30:33 GMT -8
was out at a meeting all morning. have analysts come out yet to defend against the 'news' that apple will not sell any iPhone 5’s ever again?
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Post by mace on Jan 14, 2013 9:31:26 GMT -8
... I wish the government wouldn't help me any more, I can't afford it. Collect less taxes although you want to pay more .
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 14, 2013 9:54:08 GMT -8
So we're holding kind of steady just over 500 now - about 503. Any significance to that? I know we briefly breeched 500 but if we can close above 500 today this is what - the 4th attempt to crack 500?
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Post by appledoc on Jan 14, 2013 9:58:42 GMT -8
So we're holding kind of steady just over 500 now - about 503. Any significance to that? I know we briefly breeched 500 but if we can close above 500 today this is what - the 4th attempt to crack 500? Would like to see us hold 501.94 (61.8% retrace of LOD to HOD) and bounce strong if the bottom is in.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jan 14, 2013 10:00:28 GMT -8
Speaking as someone who will see 100k evaporate on Friday , this really is the mother of all buying opportunities in a stock that has a huge run ahead of it. You must step in and buy when there is blood in the streets and it is really flowing right now. The company is now priced for absolute failure and I can't think of a company better positioned for the near future in computing , mobile and entertainment. Apple sits at the intersection of every change and is on the right side of that change and huge transition. They also sit there with the best balance sheet and P/E ratio of any company in the public space right now. We will look back on this day a year from now and finally know how wrong the market can be when it prices and values a company. We should be pulling out the couch cushions to find spare change to buy right now. Eric in Austin I don't know much about trading, but I know courage when I see it. I feel confident you will make back the 100k and a lot more.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 14, 2013 10:12:12 GMT -8
As of 12:47 EST AAPL Put Volume: 217,803 contracts Call Volume: 284,209 contracts Put/Call Ratio: 0.77
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 14, 2013 10:17:49 GMT -8
TC/PO should not be blamed for things that they do not control. However, they are responsible to react and respond to them. The Board of Directors should be exerting it fiduciary duties as well. FYI - the new controller is champion of shareholder value but it might be the case of too little too late. Maybe TC can go to visit WB to learn about capital management. Would not hurt if BRK bought some too. (some photos of TC/WB would be good too) I would bow to TC/PO wisdom if they actually spent all that they were allowed to purchase in the quarter for buybacks. AND on the earning CC state that either they speaking with the board on ways to enhance shareholder value or announce a huge buyback. Interesting chart of Q4 QQQ performance. Attachments:
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Post by aapl4kiki on Jan 14, 2013 10:19:45 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 10:23:23 GMT -8
Crap Nothing But Crap seems to be reversing its sentiment regarding the screen order change. Gee, can you imagine that?
So says my partner (I don't watch Crap anymore).
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 14, 2013 10:30:48 GMT -8
TC/PO should not be blamed for things that they do not control. However, they are responsible to react and respond to them. The Board of Directors should be exerting it fiduciary duties as well. FYI - the new controller is champion of shareholder value but it might be the case of too little too late. Maybe TC can go to visit WB to learn about capital management. Would not hurt if BRK bought some too. (some photos of TC/WB would be good too) I would bow to TC/PO wisdom if they actually spent all that they were allowed to purchase in the quarter for buybacks. AND on the earning CC state that either they speaking with the board on ways to enhance shareholder value or announce a huge buyback. Interesting chart of Q4 QQQ performance. Dell loses PC market share in 4Q, and is up 10.76% for the Q.
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Post by mace on Jan 14, 2013 10:30:51 GMT -8
Could someone define who are shareholders? Are there many of those around?
In my book, shareholders are those who hold shares for more than a year, I hold mine since 1997.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 14, 2013 10:34:39 GMT -8
Could someone define who are shareholders? Are there many of those around? In my book, shareholders are those who hold shares for more than a year, I hold mine since 1997. I'm a shareholder ;D Not since 1997 though. I wasn't a very smart 10 year old. I bought TMNT toys instead.
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 14, 2013 10:36:44 GMT -8
I am not saying fix everyting I am saying get rid of the guidance all together or provide an accurate number. Thats it. The guidance is terrible end of story. It doesn't provide any benefit. It is so conservative a 15% beat is considered low. Please provide a single reason why the guidance is helping the stock. IMHO the company has matured, market cap has expanded/changed, supply chain is better, retail continues to get better, products are better but the investor/analyst relations department is stuck in time: In the time Apple was closer to that of a startup than now, one of the largest companies in the world. +1 However, I do think it is IRs fault. This comes from the top. The mega of mega cap with a startup mentality is great on the products/engineering side. However, from the financial and communications side it is not. It is just subborn.
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Post by alice on Jan 14, 2013 10:41:36 GMT -8
Could someone define who are shareholders? Are there many of those around? In my book, shareholders are those who hold shares for more than a year, I hold mine since 1997. I am a shareholder.
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 14, 2013 10:41:42 GMT -8
Could someone define who are shareholders? Are there many of those around? In my book, shareholders are those who hold shares for more than a year, I hold mine since 1997. I think you mean investor not shareholder. A shareholder is a holder of shares. An investor probably a holder that holds longer term. A trade views shares as rentals.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 14, 2013 10:42:09 GMT -8
Here is the problem with crap journalism in today's world - as described in Rocco's article and he is spot on with this:
"And what do you get out of it? Not much beyond a Twitter feed that repeats, from different organizations, the exact same story, incessantly, for a solid 45 minutes."
In today's world you need to somehow get in front of this shit. I am completely enraged today.
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Post by prazan on Jan 14, 2013 10:42:48 GMT -8
was out at a meeting all morning. have analysts come out yet to defend against the 'news' that apple will not sell any iPhone 5’s ever again? Kloot, I'm sure you've seen this by now, but here it is: blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/01/14/aapl-bulls-rush-to-defend-against-wsj-nikkei-iphone-reports/?mod=BOLBlog&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+barrons%2Ftechtraderdaily%2Ffeed+%28BARRONS.com+Blog%3A+Tech+Trader+Daily%29The most interesting quote comes from Mark Moskowitz from JP Morgan: "Moskowitz (JP Morgan) goes so far as to write that order cuts may be a result of improving supply: We believe the bigger message related to any potential order cuts could be that iPhone 5 manufacturing yields and thereby gross margin are on the rebound. In our view, the potential order cuts are a direct result of manufacturing yields improving following the fast-and-furious product roll-outs of the iPhone 5 as well as new iPads and Macs. We had written previously that Apple had to absorb cost overage (due to poor yields) in the building of iPhone 5 and iPad mini. In our view, recent order cuts could suggest that the manufacturing yields are improving on the iPhone 5, and as a result, this could be another reason that Apple pulled back on excess orders of certain components.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 14, 2013 10:43:47 GMT -8
Horace, quoted in the Guardian on the iPhone 5 screen cut reports: "...a simple explanation could be that yields from manufacture of the screens have gone up. Usually they have to throw away about 90% because they don't meet standards. If it has improved, the amount you need to make goes down." Horace also repeats the speculation he made recently on his website, that Apple have been spending heavily on a separate Sharp display production facility: www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2013/jan/14/apple-shares-dip-iphone-5
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