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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 13:08:09 GMT -8
That's would be bullish. Btw, OI is only released tomorrow's morning. So if the put/call ratio increases tomorrow, it's not so much from the supply of puts increasing, as it is the decrease in the supply (OI) of calls from the "big boys" buying them back at lower prices. That's what I was hoping
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 13:14:08 GMT -8
It will be interesting to see the open interest at the end of today, the big boys could be using this buying opportunity to close a lot of call contracts, we might see max pain move upwards...(here's hoping) That's would be bullish. Btw, OI is only released tomorrow's morning. I see your right, Oi is the same as this morning. I guess there is nothing we can gleam from volume figures...?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 13:22:25 GMT -8
So lets look forward to earnings release and I have a questions...
With AAPL dropping $200 in the last 3 months after a massive iPhone 5 release and going into their biggest quarter ever, I'm looking for reasons why it dropped $200. I can think of 2 reasons...
1) Analysts are releasing all their FUD Articles that turn out to be baseless. There should be something that comes from this if companies releasing articles claiming that the iPhone isn't selling well and then Apple releases record iPhone sales and earnings. I'm not sure how this would be legal to claim "from inside sources supply is down" to then have this article completely blown up when earnings come up. It honestly feels criminal to me.
2) If Apple does have a terrible quarter and it's been justified that they aren't selling as many iPhones as predicted, they're having trouble making supply etc, then there would be a valid reason for it to be down, but that would seem like insider trading and people from Apple releasing this information beforehand?
Either way this seems criminal to me and really turns me off of investing in the stock market.
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Post by firestorm on Jan 14, 2013 13:34:53 GMT -8
So lets look forward to earnings release and I have a questions... With AAPL dropping $200 in the last 3 months after a massive iPhone 5 release and going into their biggest quarter ever, I'm looking for reasons why it dropped $200. I can think of 2 reasons... 1) Analysts are releasing all their FUD Articles that turn out to be baseless. There should be something that comes from this if companies releasing articles claiming that the iPhone isn't selling well and then Apple releases record iPhone sales and earnings. I'm not sure how this would be legal to claim "from inside sources supply is down" to then have this article completely blown up when earnings come up. It honestly feels criminal to me. 2) If Apple does have a terrible quarter and it's been justified that they aren't selling as many iPhones as predicted, they're having trouble making supply etc, then there would be a valid reason for it to be down, but that would seem like insider trading and people from Apple releasing this information beforehand? Either way this seems criminal to me and really turns me off of investing in the stock market. I agree with your second point; there may have been a slowdown and numbers were leaked several months ago when key levels of sales were not reached. It looks and feels criminal, rather like that flash downturn a couple of years ago that cost me $75,000 because of an unfortunate stop order that I thought should be safe. There is, of course, the possibility that there is a real sales slowdown, though I can't believe it is as deep as the numbers this morning would suggest. Samsung appears to have surpassed Apple in the coolness quotient (not quantifiable, just a gut feeling from watching young hipsters who are always going on to the next cool thing), at least among young smartphone users, and I suspect that is affecting sales to a key demographic. Or maybe there is another explanation involving lazy and herd-based media, though I doubt that is the whole reason for the sudden downdraft.
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Post by mstrmac on Jan 14, 2013 13:36:15 GMT -8
So lets look forward to earnings release and I have a questions... With AAPL dropping $200 in the last 3 months after a massive iPhone 5 release and going into their biggest quarter ever, I'm looking for reasons why it dropped $200. I can think of 2 reasons... 1) Analysts are releasing all their FUD Articles that turn out to be baseless. There should be something that comes from this if companies releasing articles claiming that the iPhone isn't selling well and then Apple releases record iPhone sales and earnings. I'm not sure how this would be legal to claim "from inside sources supply is down" to then have this article completely blown up when earnings come up. It honestly feels criminal to me. 2) If Apple does have a terrible quarter and it's been justified that they aren't selling as many iPhones as predicted, they're having trouble making supply etc, then there would be a valid reason for it to be down, but that would seem like insider trading and people from Apple releasing this information beforehand? Either way this seems criminal to me and really turns me off of investing in the stock market. My take Wall streets missed expectations 2 qtr's in a row Sentiment (competition in handsets, windows 8 release , Google Chromebook release etc.) even tho it did not matter. Tax selling, fiscal cliff crap Fud And the biggest : Options derivatives, the piling on, the hoards rushing into the aapl casino, the big boys hammering back.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 13:40:03 GMT -8
My take Wall streets missed expectations 2 qtr's in a row Sentiment (competition in handsets, windows 8 release , Google Chromebook release etc.) even tho it did not matter. Tax selling, fiscal cliff crap Fud And the biggest : Options derivatives, the piling on, the hoards rushing into the aapl casino, the big boys hammering back. I get the "Apple missed 2 quarters in a row", and can understand it falling...but why not fall immediately after bad earnings instead of rising to $700, then crashing back down? I guess I'm just confused by this whole thing...it feels like it should be logical and you just buy a company for a good price that is growing, selling a product that's popular and making enough money doing it. I feel like that should be enough.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 13:48:01 GMT -8
In a way I'm a little buoyed by how we held $500 today - that seems to be the line in the sand for sellers.
Well be at $50 TTM EPS sometime in the next 6 months, and have $150+ cash per share (barring any miracle use of the cash pile).
At $500 per share we would be at PE of 10 & ex-cash PE of 7.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 14, 2013 13:52:45 GMT -8
There is no logic ... and calls or complaints to the SEC go unanswered even with time-stamped evidence. I've been through this. Unless a company becomes more unpredictable - the MMs / hedgefunds / algos (most in bed together) will use the stock for their own gain. This is gravy for them....so many people own it so they can make some major bucks. The only way of hurting them is the element of surprise...before Friday...and crush them. But AAPL won't do anything and I doubt they will do anything on their conference call. I don't see them being proactive here at all. The whole "gentile-ness" of management is quite frankly, annoying at this point. Good or great earnings are not going to matter - they will have to be "knock the ball out of the park" earnings. I'm not so sure that will happen. And guidance? The Loop mentioned today that earnings are getting closer and closer to management's guidance. Take a look: ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/1/14/a-note-on-apples-guidanceI hope it's wrong or we are not being sand-bagged and numbers will not be great.
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Post by mstrmac on Jan 14, 2013 13:53:35 GMT -8
My take Wall streets missed expectations 2 qtr's in a row Sentiment (competition in handsets, windows 8 release , Google Chromebook release etc.) even tho it did not matter. Tax selling, fiscal cliff crap Fud And the biggest : Options derivatives, the piling on, the hoards rushing into the aapl casino, the big boys hammering back. I get the "Apple missed 2 quarters in a row", and can understand it falling...but why not fall immediately after bad earnings instead of rising to $700, then crashing back down? I guess I'm just confused by this whole thing...it feels like it should be logical and you just buy a company for a good price that is growing, selling a product that's popular and making enough money doing it. I feel like that should be enough. It has been said many times on this very board in many ways. Generally the options markets are ruining this number one stable growth stock. Cannot explain it alone. I'm severely lacking there. Be better if i just step aside. edit: and shut up.
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Post by jeffi on Jan 14, 2013 13:56:18 GMT -8
My take Wall streets missed expectations 2 qtr's in a row Sentiment (competition in handsets, windows 8 release , Google Chromebook release etc.) even tho it did not matter. Tax selling, fiscal cliff crap Fud And the biggest : Options derivatives, the piling on, the hoards rushing into the aapl casino, the big boys hammering back. I get the "Apple missed 2 quarters in a row", and can understand it falling...but why not fall immediately after bad earnings instead of rising to $700, then crashing back down? I guess I'm just confused by this whole thing...it feels like it should be logical and you just buy a company for a good price that is growing, selling a product that's popular and making enough money doing it. I feel like that should be enough. Short term price fluctuations (defined as less than a year, usually less than 3- 6 months) are based on many variables... Economy, politics, Cash flows, other opportunities, etc. Frequently there is a disconnect between the stock performance and the fundamentals. Importantly, price is a function of expectations. A poor earnings report can drive a bad stock up if it's not as bad as expected and a good report can drive a stock down if it isn't as good as expected. These are basics, and if this is news, I hope your investing money you can afford to lose. Eventually, the price finds the right level. It sometimes takes longer than we want. Buy the "right" stock and buy when it hurts (like now). Then wait... Patiently. It has worked well for me, and I'm in quite a bit of pain right now.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 14, 2013 14:07:13 GMT -8
That's would be bullish. Btw, OI is only released tomorrow's morning. Optionsexpress is showing puts outnumbering calls up to 525 - is that the same as this morning? Here is what I see Put Volume: 364,608 contracts Call Volume: 451,467 contracts Put/Call Ratio: 0.81 From: www.poweropt.com/partnerdetail.asp?txtsymbol=aapl&co=ol
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Post by doublerainbow on Jan 14, 2013 14:11:07 GMT -8
even if aapl missed earnings (like they did last quarter), does it even justify a $500 stock price?? ): This type of price is where they would be if they had a monumental f-up and there's very little chance of that imo.... anyway, sitting tight as i had been the last 4 months being more and more removed from it emotionally given the repeated beat downs
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 14, 2013 14:14:11 GMT -8
I guess I'm just confused by this whole thing...it feels like it should be logical and you just buy a company for a good price that is growing, selling a product that's popular and making enough money doing it. I feel like that should be enough. LOL! "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!" Just as life isn't always fair, the market isn't always rational, especially in the short term. In the longer term, or several years, it tends to be. After getting smashed for the past 3 months, if AAPL comes out with great (20-50% YOY increase in earnings) quarterly results for the next 4 quarters, it isn't likely to then have a the stock price shrink and have a P/E of 8. Instead, it would be more likely to have a PE from between here and 15, and it could be even higher if it were really kicking butt in a couple segments. But there's the whole forward outlook thing, and people worrying too much about marketshare and too little about profitshare. Apple tries to make the best products and get a good profit from them, and most of the time cares less about marketshare (one exception is SJ taking about doubling Mac marketshare back in 2003-2004 or so, I believe looking at US marketshare from 3% to 6% or something like that). But then estimates come out from 3rd parties (lately for both phones and Macs, though official numbers from Apple aren't yet out), and some people look at just those numbers and not about profits. Also, people get antsy about getting the actual numbers, and so when rumors come out about possibly less shipments in the future, that worries many. But back about the market, the easiest thing to do is to buy an index or some good stocks, and hold them for quite a while. 10-20 years, and you should weather out most storms, and irrationality. OTOH, if you deal much with options or margin, or both, or need the money for something in the shorter term, timing starts to matter a lot more. And with that, you have to start at least acknowledging the shorter term movements and irrationality that goes on. Now where's that Dolorean. It looks like I need to go back 3 months, sell everything AAPL, and put it all in FB. How's that for a rational trade?
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Post by moltenfire on Jan 14, 2013 14:17:51 GMT -8
I just had a wild idea and please everyone poke some holes in it:
Assume I have one call option for Jan 2013, at a strike price of $500 and brought at relatively little cost (say, $1 per contract). I believe the stock will get pinned to $500 by expiry on Friday, but it'll rise after the earnings call on Wednesday AH.
I don't do anything with the call option and, assuming it expires in the money, let it assign me 100 shares of AAPL over the weekend of Jan 19. For equities, the usual rule is that I must settle the transaction (i.e. have money or margin in the account) by the 3rd business day following the date of the transaction. Since Monday is a US holiday, the first business day following the transaction will be Tuesday, Jan 22; the second business day following the transaction will be Wednesday, Jan 23 (earnings day). If I sell the 100 shares of AAPL on Thursday, Jan 24 (before 4pm so it'll be by the 3rd business day following assignment), will I still need cash or margin (aka $100,000) to cover the 100 shares in my account between Thursday Jan 24 and the sell order's settlement date of Jan 29?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 14, 2013 14:21:48 GMT -8
I just had a wild idea and please everyone poke some holes in it: Assume I have one call option for Jan 2013, at a strike price of $500 and brought at relatively little cost (say, $1 per contract). I believe the stock will get pinned to $500 by expiry on Friday, but it'll rise after the earnings call on Wednesday AH. I don't do anything with the call option and, assuming it expires in the money, let it assign me 100 shares of AAPL over the weekend of Jan 19. For equities, the usual rule is that I must settle the transaction (i.e. have money or margin in the account) by the 3rd business day following the date of the transaction. Since Monday is a US holiday, the first business day following the transaction will be Tuesday, Jan 22; the second business day following the transaction will be Wednesday, Jan 23 (earnings day). If I sell the 100 shares of AAPL on Thursday, Jan 24 (before 4pm so it'll be by the 3rd business day following assignment), will I still need cash or margin (aka $100,000) to cover the 100 shares in my account between Thursday Jan 24 and the sell order's settlement date of Jan 29? Ask your brokerage house. Could be a good faith violation.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 14, 2013 14:26:05 GMT -8
I just had a wild idea and please everyone poke some holes in it: Assume I have one call option for Jan 2013, at a strike price of $500 and brought at relatively little cost (say, $1 per contract). I believe the stock will get pinned to $500 by expiry on Friday, but it'll rise after the earnings call on Wednesday AH. I don't do anything with the call option and, assuming it expires in the money, let it assign me 100 shares of AAPL over the weekend of Jan 19. For equities, the usual rule is that I must settle the transaction (i.e. have money or margin in the account) by the 3rd business day following the date of the transaction. Since Monday is a US holiday, the first business day following the transaction will be Tuesday, Jan 22; the second business day following the transaction will be Wednesday, Jan 23 (earnings day). If I sell the 100 shares of AAPL on Thursday, Jan 24 (before 4pm so it'll be by the 3rd business day following assignment), will I still need cash or margin (aka $100,000) to cover the 100 shares in my account between Thursday Jan 24 and the sell order's settlement date of Jan 29? Ask your brokerage house. Could be a good faith violation. What if AAPL is below 500 on the Thursday, say 480?
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Post by ericinaustin on Jan 14, 2013 14:26:34 GMT -8
In apple's defense if you can call it that , I think that they don't deal with the stock price at all. Jobs was famous for not thinking about the stock price. His attitude was that if the company keeps making great products that people want and need then the stock price will take care of itself.
To a certain extent I agree with this. It can be short term satisfying to counter selling pressure but sets up long term problems.
The fact that I lost a lot of money on a naked call is not a CEO or board problem it is mine for forgetting the adage " The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
If I was sitting on this companies cash flow market position, and balance sheet I think the right thing to do is lay the numbers on the table next week and pledge to keep doing it. If the numbers are what I think they are then it is like sitting at a texas hold-em table with a straight flush and all the other players are shouting you have nothing . Soon you get to slowly lay the cards face up and just smile.
I refuse to believe as well as I know this company that people knew things I didn't 3 months ago and began to sell for sound Warren Buffett type reasons. If this is the end of growth for apple than I will rethink everything I have learned about value investing and markets and likely stick my money in Contra fund and come to the conclusion deep knowledge about a company gives you no advantage. I'm not ready to do that.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 14, 2013 14:26:47 GMT -8
Ask your brokerage house. Could be a good faith violation. I was just wondering where you have been all day.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 14, 2013 14:33:48 GMT -8
Ask your brokerage house. Could be a good faith violation. I was just wondering where you have been all day. Watching another round of positive divergences accumulate.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 14, 2013 14:34:53 GMT -8
Funny how they don't feel positive though, huh.
(As in, not actionable for trading...yet.)
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Post by Lstream on Jan 14, 2013 14:36:54 GMT -8
Ask your brokerage house. Could be a good faith violation. I was just wondering where you have been all day. Damn rights. We need an explanation as to where the hell you were!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 14, 2013 14:37:44 GMT -8
iPad is Supreme Overlord. So going on holiday/being somewhere else is easily within iPad's power...
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 14:40:46 GMT -8
I think I'm going to create a company and a website, then post an article claiming from talks with "inside sources" that Apple is considering taking the company private. I'll then post it all over twitter, it'll be linked to by Cramer, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal etc and the stock will dramtically rise all based on my Anti FUD.
With just their cash and equivalents, they could purchase 25% of the shares right now. Why not borrow an extra $375 Billion and not have to deal with Wall Street? The way they're going, they could have that loan paid off in 5 years...then it's all golden.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Jan 14, 2013 14:41:30 GMT -8
Is anyone really surprised at what's transpired in the last 24 hours? The MMs and bears are on borrowed time with short positions and have really ratcheted up the fear factor on retail.
I wrote on 1/9:
It makes quite a bit of sense. The MMs are set on destroying all calls prior to monthly OE. It's quite possible they may be aiming for everything 500 and above now that they smell blood.
We'll likely have a three-day run into earnings if we can catch a break.
Rinse and repeat in April - July - October.
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Post by moltenfire on Jan 14, 2013 14:42:44 GMT -8
Ask your brokerage house. Could be a good faith violation. What if AAPL is below 500 on the Thursday, say 480? I lose money, of course.
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Post by moltenfire on Jan 14, 2013 14:45:03 GMT -8
I just had a wild idea and please everyone poke some holes in it: Assume I have one call option for Jan 2013, at a strike price of $500 and brought at relatively little cost (say, $1 per contract). I believe the stock will get pinned to $500 by expiry on Friday, but it'll rise after the earnings call on Wednesday AH. I don't do anything with the call option and, assuming it expires in the money, let it assign me 100 shares of AAPL over the weekend of Jan 19. For equities, the usual rule is that I must settle the transaction (i.e. have money or margin in the account) by the 3rd business day following the date of the transaction. Since Monday is a US holiday, the first business day following the transaction will be Tuesday, Jan 22; the second business day following the transaction will be Wednesday, Jan 23 (earnings day). If I sell the 100 shares of AAPL on Thursday, Jan 24 (before 4pm so it'll be by the 3rd business day following assignment), will I still need cash or margin (aka $100,000) to cover the 100 shares in my account between Thursday Jan 24 and the sell order's settlement date of Jan 29? Ask your brokerage house. Could be a good faith violation. Heh, in this case, if I have to ask, it's probably not allowed . . .
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Post by rob_london on Jan 14, 2013 14:50:14 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 14, 2013 14:51:25 GMT -8
So who can answer this question - if we continue to hover around $500 - or worse - go lower until Jan OpEx this Friday.....and Monday is a holiday....when does the Earnings Run come? Is it ONE DAY?....ugh
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 14, 2013 14:57:02 GMT -8
I was just wondering where you have been all day. Damn rights. We need an explanation as to where the hell you were! ROFL!!!
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Post by Lstream on Jan 14, 2013 14:58:41 GMT -8
So who can answer this question - if we continue to hover around $500 - or worse - go lower until Jan OpEx this Friday.....and Monday is a holiday....when does the Earnings Run come? Is it ONE DAY?....ugh I have felt for weeks that there is no pre-earnings run coming this time around. The screaming avalanche of FUD has everyone in "show-me" mode. Here's hoping Apple does not disappoint.
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