Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Jul 23, 2020 2:06:49 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Jul 23, 2020 2:12:56 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Jul 23, 2020 2:20:56 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Jul 23, 2020 2:26:45 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Jul 23, 2020 2:29:30 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Jul 23, 2020 6:36:10 GMT -8
I have never been a believer that Apple has passed up other great opportunities. Like Tesla and Netflix. Apple brings focus and discipline to their business. I am glad they avoid what I consider to be goofball ideas like such “opportunities” I think buying ARM would be a terrible idea. Apple would immediately find itself in a massive conflict of interest, since it would own the technology that competitors depend on. Such as Qualcomm. I would expect competitors and regulators to jump all over this and oppose. And to what end? As I posted yesterday, I think Apple has what they need from ARM, no matter who owns it. What would be the point of getting into this line of business, as it does not line up at all with their existing strategy. Spending $10B plus, which would be half of what SoftBank paid, would be a waste of shareholder money in my opinion. EDIT - RISC-V threat to ARM business. Maybe this is one of the reasons SoftBank wants out. And if Apple bought, I think it would motivate all kinds of customers to migrate away from ARM.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 23, 2020 8:11:39 GMT -8
Goldman Sachs F'd us today.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Jul 23, 2020 9:43:04 GMT -8
Goldman Sachs F'd us today. Wow, with Partners like The Great Vampire Squid who needs enemies?
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Post by BillH on Jul 23, 2020 9:53:36 GMT -8
Goldman Sachs F'd us today. "I was just thinking about this cartoon I once saw. A bunch of tiny fish are swimming through the leaves of the plant but then one of the fish realizes it's not a plant, it's the tentacles of a predator. And the fish says, "with friends like this, who needs anemones?"
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 23, 2020 10:14:41 GMT -8
Via a comment at PED today, someone named Analysis Group has Apple’s App Store and Other Digital Marketplaces. It is quite long, but from what I read/skimmed, Apple’s terms appear to be very consistent with the market as a whole (but fabulous success inevitably brings scrutiny).
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 23, 2020 10:18:44 GMT -8
Goldman Sachs F'd us today. I really don’t see how reducing their price target from $250 to $233 would have a large influence at this point on anyone truly interested in AAPL. The whole market is diving.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 23, 2020 10:25:24 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 23, 2020 10:30:51 GMT -8
Meanwhile, a shakedown in the House today. Tim Cook is wasting lost of time and energy answering the grifters in Congress that he could be using to make Apple great and make us money: Apple CEO Tim Cook has spent much of July preparing for House antitrust hearingIt's bad enough that Europe is doing these shakedowns to US companies, but here we have our own Congress engaging in a circular firing squad attacking American companies. I assure you China is not doing this to its top companies. Quite the contrary.
Coincidentally, I'm reading a John D Rockefeller bio right now (Titan by Ron Chernow). Mainstream historians love to crow about how wonderful the antitrust actions against Standard Oil were. But of course in the end, the power and money just flowed to international cartels (OPEC). And that's who Apple is competing with, foreign companies. Foreign companies who have the full backing (if not ownership by) their governments.
I'll let you all guess which party is pushing this economic suicide.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 23, 2020 10:33:33 GMT -8
Goldman Sachs F'd us today. I really don’t see how reducing their price target from $250 to $233 would have a large influence at this point on anyone truly interested in AAPL. The whole market is diving. The QQQ is down 2.35% but AAPL is down 4.5% as of this post. It wasn't just a target price drop; it was a sell recommendation.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 23, 2020 11:13:12 GMT -8
I really don’t see how reducing their price target from $250 to $233 would have a large influence at this point on anyone truly interested in AAPL. The whole market is diving. The QQQ is down 2.35% but AAPL is down 4.5% as of this post. It wasn't just a target price drop; it was a sell recommendation. My point was that GS has been so wrong for so long about Apple/AAPL that I have to wonder why anyone would pay attention to them.
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Post by playultimate on Jul 23, 2020 13:27:27 GMT -8
I really don’t see how reducing their price target from $250 to $233 would have a large influence at this point on anyone truly interested in AAPL. The whole market is diving. The QQQ is down 2.35% but AAPL is down 4.5% as of this post. It wasn't just a target price drop; it was a sell recommendation. FWIW, MSFT was down 4.35%. And TSLA was down 4.98%. (after both having decent earnings) From my observation, this sell-off had little to do with anything AAPL specific.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 23, 2020 13:36:20 GMT -8
The QQQ is down 2.35% but AAPL is down 4.5% as of this post. It wasn't just a target price drop; it was a sell recommendation. My point was that GS has been so wrong for so long about Apple/AAPL that I have to wonder why anyone would pay attention to them. Their target seems way off base, but this is the kind of crazy rumor or call we often get in the week before earnings. Someone swinging hard and hoping for the fences? The other side is that things were a little unstable, turning what could have been a stumble into a knee scrape. Volume has been down recently. The question is if there will be follow thru, on AAPL and the market. Often it's 2-3 day segments. Buying opportunity? At 380-382, I wasn't going to bother. Closing out the day near 370, I can see at least a little more in the first 15-30 minutes, giving the potential for a quick 10% gain if things spring back to 400. There's some risk, but a 10% discount could make it worthwhile to pick up a few shares, if I don't mind holding them long term if things don't turn positive quickly. With mortgage rates at all-time lows, what are margin rates at? (wow! 1.35%, but IB is down to 0.75%!!!) Risk on? I didn't actually see the GS call ( www.ped30.com/2020/07/23/apple-goldman-sachs-target-299-raise/ ), but just watched the CNBC traders rebuttal (halftime report www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/23/traders-debate-goldmans-sell-thesis-on-apples-stock.html ). There's always wall of worry type items, but their "there is not competitor to Apple" along with being a safer investment these days makes sense, while also questioning the multiple increase right now. Apple/AAPL look strong coming out of the slowdown, with good customer momentum and products going forward.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 23, 2020 14:15:59 GMT -8
My point was that GS has been so wrong for so long about Apple/AAPL that I have to wonder why anyone would pay attention to them. Their target seems way off base, but this is the kind of crazy rumor or call we often get in the week before earnings. Someone swinging hard and hoping for the fences? Again, they went from $250 to $233. This was not some sudden radical move. Why is anyone paying attention to the clown in the corner?
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Jul 23, 2020 14:46:02 GMT -8
Their target seems way off base, but this is the kind of crazy rumor or call we often get in the week before earnings. Someone swinging hard and hoping for the fences? Again, they went from $250 to $233. This was not some sudden radical move. Why is anyone paying attention to the clown in the corner? Because it’s a convenient distraction from the real horror show going on in the economy - 1.4M new unemployed, 30M total unemployed, nearly 150,000 dead, 4M cases in the US... I hate to say it, but these numbers should scare the pants off anyone looking for signs of rapid recovery. The tech beating today probably had much more to do with this grim reality than Rod Hall saying something dumb again.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 23, 2020 14:46:08 GMT -8
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Post by macster on Jul 23, 2020 15:49:08 GMT -8
Again, they went from $250 to $233. This was not some sudden radical move. Why is anyone paying attention to the clown in the corner? Because it’s a convenient distraction from the real horror show going on in the economy - 1.4M new unemployed, 30M total unemployed, nearly 150,000 dead, 4M cases in the US... I hate to say it, but these numbers should scare the pants off anyone looking for signs of rapid recovery. The tech beating today probably had much more to do with this grim reality than Rod Hall saying something dumb again. Blame China. Quit complaining, wear your mask, don’t sneeze in public or cough. Get back to work. Deal with it. Vaccines coming soon. Don’t let the China virus destroy the economy or lives. As far as cases go a child was shot and died today and the autopsy blood test revealed the child had COVID. A police officer reported they counted the child as a COVID victim. Reportedly for months that Covid infections are being manipulated
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 23, 2020 17:14:38 GMT -8
Their target seems way off base, but this is the kind of crazy rumor or call we often get in the week before earnings. Someone swinging hard and hoping for the fences? Again, they went from $250 to $233. This was not some sudden radical move. Why is anyone paying attention to the clown in the corner? PED's article said they raised their target $36, from $263 to $299. Is $299 outrageous for someone who thinks the stock is going to go down? It's only a 20% drop from today's close of $371. While I might not agree that the stock, overall, will go down 20% in the coming year, I also wouldn't completely bet against it happening at some point. AAPL has up years and has down years. There are a multitude of investments out there. I still feel, after all of these years, that there are those with an anti-Apple mindset out there. It's less of an issue now, with iPhone and iPad marketshare figures much much greater than past Mac marketshare figures. But, there are still some people out there, and IMO that has contributed to some of the low multiples of the past, and some of the big bears out there. OTOH, AAPL has done great in the past when annualized over time, and seems to be set to continue. At what rate is hard to know for certain, but my personal high side is just a touch over 20%, whereas I expect AAPL to be closer to 15-18% annualized when looking over the next 5 years, and 12-15% over the next 10. But that's just a guess, and I don't have any reasonable way to put a probability on that.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 23, 2020 18:56:54 GMT -8
Wow! This was likely the clincher for Apple’s move to ARM. I can’ t imagine that Apple wasn’t informed of this possibilities months ago.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Jul 23, 2020 19:05:11 GMT -8
Wow! This was likely the clincher for Apple’s move to ARM. I can’ t imagine that Apple wasn’t informed of this possibilities months ago. My thoughts exactly. It could be a hell of a coincidence, or it could be that Tim saw this coming a long time ago. Either way, it’s obviously a brilliant move.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 23, 2020 19:07:56 GMT -8
Again, they went from $250 to $233. This was not some sudden radical move. Why is anyone paying attention to the clown in the corner? PED's article said they raised their target $36, from $263 to $299. Apologies, I read an older article. It does not change my opinion. They have consistently been trailers in PED’s price target rankings, but the latest change makes little difference. Let’s see where AAPL is after the earnings report.
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