Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Jul 24, 2020 1:53:37 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Jul 24, 2020 2:01:43 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Jul 24, 2020 2:06:52 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Jul 24, 2020 3:03:05 GMT -8
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Post by longsince98 on Jul 24, 2020 4:38:10 GMT -8
It’s Friday and the pre-market is red -$5.18 at this moment. Hopefully this day will not be a repeat of yesterday’s price drop. Multiple U.S. states are investigating Apple for potentially deceiving consumers, according to a March document obtained by a tech watchdog group. Apple shares fell 4.55% and pulled the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 lower. Equity markets had been trading slightly lower before the Apple news on concerns about labor market weakness due to the coronavirus pandemic and deteriorating U.S.-China relations. The dollar slid to 22-month lows against a basket of peer currencies and gold rose for a fifth straight session to almost $1,900 an ounce, off about $25 from its all-time peak as rising U.S.-China tensions increased bullion's safe-haven appeal. [/quote] Does anyone know how they’re allegedly deceiving consumers?
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Post by hledgard on Jul 24, 2020 4:45:55 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 24, 2020 6:13:18 GMT -8
PED's article said they raised their target $36, from $263 to $299. Apologies, I read an older article. It does not change my opinion. They have consistently been trailers in PED’s price target rankings, but the latest change makes little difference. Let’s see where AAPL is after the earnings report. In thinking about it this morning, there's still a way to use his numbers. In the comments section of PED, it was pointed out that the stock did get as low as a few points away in the past year from his then target. So, use it as a "bad case" lower bounds. Whether that's a "I'm holding long and just want a guesstimate of how bad things could get" or dealing with puts, calls, or margin, sometimes it's good to have an idea of the likely bounds. I sometimes use the most bullish analysts that way, maybe giving a 10% chance that the stock will get up to that level and stay up, but a 30-50% chance that on a bullish run the stock could get as high as that. With that mindset, if one is selling a little or writing calls, one is less likely to sell much too low. Hmmm, a dip down to $356. If really motivated to act on the dip, I considered having an open order at $361 or so, but didn't. It's all risk/reward, and things could get ugly for AAPL in the next couple days if a coordinated attack is being attempted. Still, a 10% gain in rebounding to the highs could be nice, or if the pricing isn't low enough then writing some puts at an even lower level. Fun times, but it's time to finish up coating the driveway. Early morning is the way to beat these occasional afternoon thunderstorms. Like Apple bears coming out just before earnings, they are sporadic but their timeframe is predictable.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 24, 2020 7:15:31 GMT -8
Ok
Placed an order for a few shares down around $361
And offered to write some puts at $300 in Sept '22.
Though pricing would have been right earlier this morning, neither will hit unless the stock drops again, like the 2nd dip down to $363 this morning.
I think AAPL might see a little more negativity before earnings. It's just too big of a target, with multiple potential beneficiaries. Maybe not a big drop, but I could see a push to just below $350. 30% odds? 50% odds? Sometimes it's just fun to guess.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 24, 2020 7:27:54 GMT -8
I think today was the day for sub-$350 before earnings, if it was going to happen. Then again, I am horrible at predicting short term movements.
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Post by lulli on Jul 24, 2020 7:29:40 GMT -8
The "interesting article" uses a cherry-picked sentence of the full lancet article, which focuses on older data grabbed from various web sites, doesn't take into account mask use, and is one contribution to try to understand the effect of many factors. The full article itself does quite complex statistics, but among many other things in its conclusions section, it also has stuff like this: Not much to do with AAPL, so sorry. But this triggered my antipathy for using a sentence out of a complex articles that say a myriad of things in non-complex summaries that want to reach a predefined conclusion....
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Post by hledgard on Jul 24, 2020 7:53:50 GMT -8
Thanks for the thoughtful comment lulli. I will look into it more deeply. Articles like this could really help steer public policy.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 24, 2020 9:12:57 GMT -8
It doesn't look like the details are out, but these state false advertising/unfair competition laws can be pretty broad (California has three). Apple shares fall as the company could face investigation for violating consumer protection lawsApparently "pro-business" Texas is initiating this. I hadn't read this little nugget previously: That brick-and-mortar reference is not accidental or trivial. As I've argued before, do antitrust regulators tell Walmart or Target what they can charge sundries companies to have their products stocked on their shelves? Apple is laying the groundwork for that analogy.
I'd also use the garage sale analogy (because jurors can identify more with garage sales). Would it be fair to demand that your neighbor sell your items for no commissions at his garage sale, merely because he has the biggest house on the block?
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Post by duckpins on Jul 24, 2020 11:05:29 GMT -8
Apple announces attention to be carbon neutral and Texas files a lawsuit? There you go.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 24, 2020 11:18:32 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 24, 2020 13:22:16 GMT -8
Ugh, I was watching that discussion (CNBC plays in my trading software). And yeah, the dour dreadful Stephen Weiss. What programming genius thought Weiss had a personality and face for TV? His take was to play Apple derivatives like TSM because Apple is so overvalued. Forgetting for a second that TMS has a higher PE than Apple, anyone who's spent any time looking at Apple's relationships and contracts with suppliers knows that Apple is ruthless in its contracting and sucks margins right out of its supplier deals (who can forget that sapphire manufacturing company's deal with Apple in Arizona?). And I can't think of an industry with a higher capital investment and smaller margins than silicon fabs. There's a reason Apple farms that out instead of building a foundry. Same reason Google stopped laying fiber. Najarian makes the great point: If you sell Apple, where you gonna go? CNBC is so bad I can rarely listen to it.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Jul 24, 2020 14:57:56 GMT -8
Ugh, I was watching that discussion (CNBC plays in my trading software). And yeah, the dour dreadful Stephen Weiss. What programming genius thought Weiss had a personality and face for TV? His take was to play Apple derivatives like TSM because Apple is so overvalued. Forgetting for a second that TMS has a higher PE than Apple, anyone who's spent any time looking at Apple's relationships and contracts with suppliers knows that Apple is ruthless in its contracting and sucks margins right out of its supplier deals ( who can forget that sapphire manufacturing company's deal with Apple in Arizona?). And I can't think of an industry with a higher capital investment and smaller margins than silicon fabs. There's a reason Apple farms that out instead of building a foundry. Same reason Google stopped laying fiber. Najarian makes the great point: If you sell Apple, where you gonna go? CNBC is so bad I can rarely listen to it. Would that be GTAT? I still carry the scars.
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