Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on Aug 12, 2020 2:26:38 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on Aug 12, 2020 2:33:16 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on Aug 12, 2020 2:39:58 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on Aug 12, 2020 2:45:36 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Aug 12, 2020 4:27:02 GMT -8
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Aug 12, 2020 7:14:49 GMT -8
So TSLA is going to split, which is great because I own a modest amount as well as some options. No, I have not bought into Tesla's fundamentals (they remain ludicrous for this valuation), but I also don't like to fight tapes and I look at a stock's momentum and sentiment.
Anyway, it seems that stock splits are way down: I say, good. We know and Tim and Luca obviously know the psychological value of splits (despite no bearing whatsoever on the actual value of the stock), so let's keep it our little secret. If every stock split, there would be widespread news coverage of why they mean nothing. So, financial media, keep laughing at our little fruit company's weird affinity for stock splits.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Aug 12, 2020 8:08:00 GMT -8
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on Aug 12, 2020 8:56:54 GMT -8
I have read some concerns that when TESLA joins the SP500, index funds will sell holdings to buy TESLA. This seems like it would provide a buying opportunity for AAPL, but I am too lazy to do the math. TESLA has a market cap of about 262 billion. AAPL has a market cap of 1,917 Billion. The SP500 market cap is 27 Trillion. If a train leaves Cupertino at noon heading south, what will be the effect on AAPL when the SP 500 is rebalanced?
Please show your work
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
|
Post by 4aapl on Aug 12, 2020 9:09:43 GMT -8
I say, good. We know and Tim and Luca obviously know the psychological value of splits (despite no bearing whatsoever on the actual value of the stock), so let's keep it our little secret. If every stock split, there would be widespread news coverage of why they mean nothing. So, financial media, keep laughing at our little fruit company's weird affinity for stock splits. Could it also be that stocks are just using a bigger range before splitting. I want to say that one of AAPL's splits was a 2 for 1 back in the 160-180 range, trying to keep things down around $100. Instead, if the range is now to keep things in the $100-$300 range, the splits can happen less often (and thus less added costs), and yet the multiple can be greater. See AAPL's 4 to 1 split, and TSLA's 5 to 1 split. Splits don't tend to be random. Instead, they happen when there is positive momentum, just as reverse splits happen during or after negative momentum, especially if done to stay on the markets. I think it would be tough to separate out if there is additional positive (and lasting) movement just due to splitting, vs it being tied to positive momentum of the stock (due to underlying positiveness, or even just the momo crowd). But hey, the stock is up, so what do I care. Still, I feel a lot better knowing that AAPL has the fundamentals under it. I probably would be clueless and happy with the likes of NFLX, AMZN or TSLA right now, if I hadn't lived through AAPL's devaluation over the years. The floor is a lot more solid now, even at a ~35 P/E vs the sub-10 it dipped down to. OTOH, the 100 shares it will cost for a decent newish vehicle cost me $56. Wow! What a change in AAPL and Apple over the years!
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
|
Post by 4aapl on Aug 12, 2020 9:12:48 GMT -8
The SP500 market cap is 27 Trillion. If a train leaves Cupertino at noon heading south, what will be the effect on AAPL when the SP 500 is rebalanced? Please show your work Negligible, both in the shorter and longer term. But crowd psychology is a whole different field, and could make waves even if that doesn't change the overall level of the tide.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Aug 12, 2020 9:55:05 GMT -8
Some interesting Apple analysis by our old friend Horace. Trying my best to format it so bear bull with me.
|
|
duckpins
Member
Posts: 762
Member is Online
|
Post by duckpins on Aug 12, 2020 11:56:26 GMT -8
There are less companies listed so you would have to graph by % to know this for sure.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
|
Post by 4aapl on Aug 12, 2020 15:07:19 GMT -8
I have read some concerns that when TESLA joins the SP500, index funds will sell holdings to buy TESLA. This seems like it would provide a buying opportunity for AAPL, but I am too lazy to do the math. TESLA has a market cap of about 262 billion. AAPL has a market cap of 1,917 Billion. The SP500 market cap is 27 Trillion. If a train leaves Cupertino at noon heading south, what will be the effect on AAPL when the SP 500 is rebalanced? Please show your work No one? Too much other junk today, so this is easy in comparison. Let: S=S&P 500 market cap T=Tesla market cap A=Apple market cap Using values from above (S+T)/S gives the market cap ratio, or 27.262/27, or 1.0097, rounded to 1.01 (heck, that's 1.0 for significant digits) But an important point is that it's the S&P 500, so something is getting bumped off the 500 member list. Still, the simple math is using the inverse of that 1.01, so 0.99. The old S&P 500 components should take roughly a 1% hit, if all shares of the underlying 499 companies were 100% in the index. They aren't. I own a few shares of AAPL, and I've heard it told that at least a few other people here own shares. And some company by a guy named Buffet has a few more than any of us. But, make a wild guess that 20% of the shares are owned in S&P 500 indexes (it's probably less, for one it's currently 11.1% of the Dow, in addition to 6.6% of the S&P), and you'd get that AAPL would fall 0.2% for adding in TSLA at the current market cap. It sounds pretty negligible to me.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Aug 12, 2020 15:22:52 GMT -8
Second highest close of all time today and yet not a peep. I think we might be a little spoiled.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Aug 12, 2020 17:04:48 GMT -8
Second highest close of all time today and yet not a peep. I think we might be a little spoiled. You’re right, but I think part of it may be the impending split. Yes, I know that current movements have exactly the same effect on total value, but I think subconsciously there may be a feeling that attitudes about the stock will be affected by the split for those not as plugged in as sophisticated investors such as yourself, so there is a bit of a waiting game in progress. BWDIK
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
|
Post by 4aapl on Aug 12, 2020 20:52:22 GMT -8
Second highest close of all time today and yet not a peep. I think we might be a little spoiled. Distracted by other stuff, but it was nice to see even if I didn't register it being the 2nd highest close. OTOH, by regrouping a bit, the RSI is only at 70. That puts it on the high end, but not hitting the 80-90 range that has happened before when AAPL was in a frothy peak. We're in this pre-iPhone timeframe that is behaving similar to the pre-MWSF timeframes, where the peaks would slowly crawl forward each year as people tried to get in before the stock climbed. But, that gets to be more and more speculative. If needing to think short term, look for an RSI peak in the 80-90 range. It might not be the absolute top, and I sure hope it isn't. But, it may be a relative top, and it's certainly a lot higher than the rare occasion where AAPL goes to the other end of the RSI spectrum, getting below 35 and rarely even below 30. ...not that it matters much. As long as Apple keeps improving products each year, continually producing things their customer base plus some newcomers want, then overall AAPL should go up. Still, sometimes it's fun to guess at the short term, even if staying long term. Entertainment comes in many forms.
|
|
crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
|
Post by crispin on Aug 12, 2020 21:47:46 GMT -8
Second highest close of all time today and yet not a peep. I think we might be a little spoiled. You’re right, but I think part of it may be the impending split. Yes, I know that current movements have exactly the same effect on total value, but I think subconsciously there may be a feeling that attitudes about the stock will be affected by the split for those not as plugged in as sophisticated investors such as yourself, so there is a bit of a waiting game in progress. BWDIK It’s not that I don’t appreciate AAPL’s incredible performance, it’s just a little hard to stay focused on it when the country in is crisis.
|
|