Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 19, 2013 13:16:26 GMT -8
I sense sarcasm. I may be wrong.
I'll only reply as follows: Don't fight the trend. "Manipulation" as in quotes. The signs of a 500ish close were more...evident than usual due to the massive pile-up of calls and puts at one strike. And AAPL failing to hold 510 on Thursday.
Mental output: Is this a once-a-quarter, once-a-year kind of trading setup?! Eh, why the hell not test that theory? Mindset and opinions about fairness and efficiency of markets has nothing to do with it. The WSJ put is out-of-mind. This is a speculative ultra-short-term trade with all that implies. Take your Level 3 options approval, carefully calculate maximum risk, run with it, and see what happens.
Sometimes knowing the exact mechanics isn't as important as anticipating the result. "Why is AAPL being confined to around 500? Hell, I dunno, but I'll trade it!"
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 19, 2013 13:20:38 GMT -8
jeffi, couldn't it be some of both? I think of it like air traffic control. Manipulation or FUD directs the plane to a certain runway and then the pricing dynamics of options unwinding results in a perfect 3 point landing. All it takes is getting AAPL near enough to the right strike before expiration day and then market dynamics take over.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 19, 2013 13:27:53 GMT -8
Check out the Travis video - it was mechanics of the huge open interest but he suggests that something fishy happened when we were in the 520s with the planting of the WSJ stories. Once it got down to 500 then it was like a magnet - he explains the trades - they make sense. But again, he even thinks that the story plants to move it down in such a cascade of selling were highly suspicious. He refers to it as "selling with a purpose." I posted the video earlier - it should be watched.
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Post by Nevyn on Jan 19, 2013 13:28:21 GMT -8
I bought back in Friday afternoon. Let's see how Tuesday and Wednesday go.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 19, 2013 13:37:42 GMT -8
Been a while, Nevyn.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 19, 2013 13:42:28 GMT -8
Check out the Travis video - it was mechanics of the huge open interest but he suggests that something fishy happened when we were in the 520s with the planting of the WSJ stories. Once it got down to 500 then it was like a magnet - he explains the trades - they make sense. But again, he even thinks that the story plants to move it down in such a cascade of selling were highly suspicious. He refers to it as "selling with a purpose." I posted the video earlier - it should be watched. I second the recommendation. Informative.
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Post by jeffi on Jan 19, 2013 13:55:35 GMT -8
jeffi, couldn't it be some of both? I think of it like air traffic control. Manipulation or FUD directs the plane to a certain runway and then the pricing dynamics of options unwinding results in a perfect 3 point landing. All it takes is getting AAPL near enough to the right strike before expiration day and then market dynamics take over. Yes. Quite plausible. Manipulation is frequently used incorrectly to explain stock price movements that are caused by the closing of open option contracts. I was only trying to correct this error to improve the quality of the discussion which in turn might enable us to trade more profitably. Can we be accountable for our words? Or... When we make mistakes should we just call it semantics? How does that advance our knowledge base?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 19, 2013 14:00:46 GMT -8
The one CNBC video you should watch this year. Reposted because it's just that good. You can just mute/close your eyes when the CNBC talking heads pop up.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 19, 2013 14:05:41 GMT -8
Channel surfing and came across QVC pushing ipads. They give a count periodically, it was 6000 for the one hour segment.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 19, 2013 14:06:49 GMT -8
QVC sells iPads? Well, that's 6000 more for fiscal Q2! ;D Pricing seems mildly obscene: $1000 for a 32GB iPad LTE (4?) with accessory kit.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 19, 2013 14:11:29 GMT -8
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Post by Tan on Jan 19, 2013 14:57:11 GMT -8
Great comment from another site...
You know, if Apple walked on water, the analyst would conclude “See, Apple cannot swim”!
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 19, 2013 15:13:44 GMT -8
Can we be accountable for our words? Or... When we make mistakes should we just call it semantics? How does that advance our knowledge base? Are we trying to advance our knowledge base or to prove one's superiority and the other's inferiority? I attempt to see the intent behind a person's words.
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Post by fariba on Jan 19, 2013 15:50:55 GMT -8
thank you gregg for your informative post. i had missed that. thanks ipad for your charts here and in avi land. i amcatching up with the posts this weekend. hope aapl has bottomed and everyone can celebrate next week the good news on 1/24
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Post by appledoc on Jan 19, 2013 15:55:10 GMT -8
thank you gregg for your informative post. i had missed that. thanks ipad for your charts here and in avi land. i amcatching up with the posts this weekend. hope aapl has bottomed and everyone can celebrate next week the good news on 1/24 Here here fariba. I need some good news here. That fortune cookie that I got right after 501 that said my luck was going to completely change was a liar!
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 19, 2013 16:00:00 GMT -8
He is at +15 for the quarter, he was off with his Oct estimate by a large margin. His prediction of the movement for the past week is accurate, but was expected by most.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 19, 2013 16:01:42 GMT -8
Great comment from another site... You know, if Apple walked on water, the analyst would conclude “See, Apple cannot swim”!Could it be? Is that really you Tan?
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Post by fariba on Jan 19, 2013 16:01:51 GMT -8
stay cheerful doc. i think your fortune is about to change. trust the doers more that the talkers. the doer said not to bet against apple the company. the talkers just talk. their words never turn into action...and, therefore, never forge any destiny.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 19, 2013 16:13:09 GMT -8
I need some good news here. That fortune cookie that I got right after 501 that said my luck was going to completely change was a liar! The cookie didn't say when. They hardly ever do, to my knowledge. The bright side isn't hard to find IMHO: Continuous bullish divergences, an island bottom in play, a rejection below 500, AAPL repeatedly holding the 500-ish zone as support ever since the bear raid that reached its worst point on December 14, a semi-hammer on the weekly. The only recent H&S the bears can claim credit for was, if it actually WAS a H&S, the one that WSJ precipitated. The SMA-100 weekly is still holding, the 38.2% macro retrace (70ish-700ish) is still holding, the mutant macro force-fit H&S hasn't triggered... None of this is to cover up a truly miserable chart, and the intermediate term trend is still DOWN. But the same way equities are far from dead, AAPL is far from finished. Still hanging in there as we approach Wednesday.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 19, 2013 16:33:46 GMT -8
HFT article 1 MS says that HFT is 84% of all trading. Number is debatable but it is high and getting higher all the time evidently. HFT article 2Some good HFT info. Quote stuffing, dark pools, etc. the odds are severely stacked.
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Post by rosie on Jan 19, 2013 17:26:51 GMT -8
beyond my worst suspicions...I think I will upgrade my tinfoil hat to niobium in "honor" of this info...
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 19, 2013 18:30:21 GMT -8
beyond my worst suspicions...I think I will upgrade my tinfoil hat to niobium in "honor" of this info... Lovey, did you grant Rosie membership? ;D Chas, I appreciate the links. What I find strange is that this has been common knowledge for a long time. It is not like I let the cat out of the bag. People need to understand trade velocity. I read an extensive research report last year that made my skin crawl. It was last year I also started investigating quote stuffing. There was a guy over at Cobra's site who actually had a program that tracked HFT quotes. EO's control direction, plain and simple. Supply and demand, HA. If it were that simple. I will say I have learned new info about the past few months. Someone I know opened my eyes to something that happened to him about option assignment after the dividend. I am starting to understand what the market actually did to ITM option holders at the end of the year. Not only did they steal the dividends, they created tax events for unsuspecting assignees. Crooks.
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Post by jeffi on Jan 19, 2013 18:38:44 GMT -8
Can we be accountable for our words? Or... When we make mistakes should we just call it semantics? How does that advance our knowledge base? Are we trying to advance our knowledge base or to prove one's superiority and the other's inferiority? I attempt to see the intent behind a person's words. Superiority is not the issue. I have not touted my performance or out-performance. I recently indicated on these very boards that I lost a very large sum of money trading Apple. I am not proud of that fact. I made mistakes of which I will try and learn from. I will not blame phantom manipulation, etc. I take full responsibility. You do us a great service managing this board. I am thankful for that. The issue I raise is unrelated.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 19, 2013 18:39:28 GMT -8
During the middle part of 2012 the money flow for AAPL was fairly accurate. When the down trend started it became worthless because of all the bull traps. I bring this up because the net inflow into AAPL Friday was over $500 million. Normally this would be great news, but the last 4 months this has resulted in a steep drop. Lets hope this is a positive.
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Post by jeffi on Jan 19, 2013 18:46:29 GMT -8
beyond my worst suspicions...I think I will upgrade my tinfoil hat to niobium in "honor" of this info... Lovey, did you grant Rosie membership? ;D Chas, I appreciate the links. What I find strange is that this has been common knowledge for a long time. It is not like I let the cat out of the bag. People need to understand trade velocity. I read an extensive research report last year that made my skin crawl. It was last year I also started investigating quote stuffing. There was a guy over at Cobra's site who actually had a program that tracked HFT quotes. EO's control direction, plain and simple. Supply and demand, HA. If it were that simple. I will say I have learned new info about the past few months. Someone I know opened my eyes to something that happened to him about option assignment after the dividend. I am starting to understand what the market actually did to ITM option holders at the end of the year. Not only did they steal the dividends, they created tax events for unsuspecting assignees. Crooks. Something similar may have happened to me with option assignments. Can you elaborate further the details of what transpired? Is there anything that can be done to prevent the problem that occurred?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 19, 2013 19:01:15 GMT -8
Even if you assume people to be superstitious, does that make their words false when they maintain that they are 100% accountable for their trades?
If you've seen the explanation video that aaplpain.com posted on YouTube, how much do you agree with it?
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Post by chasmac on Jan 19, 2013 20:18:04 GMT -8
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Post by Nevyn on Jan 19, 2013 21:10:17 GMT -8
A combination of things has kept me from posting including health and getting used to this new board. I keep hope to be more active now. I have been in and out of Apple over the last two months and suffered a thousand cuts, but I think the worst is behind us. It all hinges on the guidance in the ER. I almost to the point of throwing in the towel on spreads and naked longs and joining the so called Evil Overlords and buy some cheap AAPL stock and just write covered calls. BTW, anybody have any opinions on buying some VIX options as insurance against the debt ceiling talks and other upcoming volatility?
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Post by Tan on Jan 19, 2013 21:20:22 GMT -8
Great comment from another site... You know, if Apple walked on water, the analyst would conclude “See, Apple cannot swim”!Could it be? Is that really you Tan? I've been here all along, just not as "chatty" as before. I'm not into squiggles and triangles, more a fundamenatlist, and for NOW, fundy analysis just ain't the order of the day. For six months now, AAPL has been run on pure emotion, FUD, and paid for hackery. I believe this is the way now for this beloved stock, it is "broken" intentionally, and will forever be the playtoy of the loons, and goons of the punditry, and flimflam artists.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Jan 19, 2013 21:34:19 GMT -8
I kind of like their chart. It shows that all the other companies hit the $500B valuation point during an economic bubble (perhaps arguably not including Exxon). Meanwhile, Apple just hit it recently, and surely nobody can claim there's an economic bubble right about now. Maybe a bond bubble, but not an overall economic one.
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