Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Aug 17, 2020 2:16:33 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Aug 17, 2020 2:27:36 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Aug 17, 2020 2:39:02 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 17, 2020 6:16:04 GMT -8
New ATH!
This is the pre-week to the lead-up week to the split. I think a lot of the split has already been absorbed, but there should be a little juice left in the system.
Sometimes it's interesting to see how other stocks and investments behave, especially if removed from the investment so looking at it just as an observer, such as cryptocurrency at it's peak. For me right now that is a silver 2x fund AGQ, and a tiny mining related stock LODE. Silver has gone crazy in the last month. It wasn't a hedge against an economic slowdown and market dip, taking things just as bad. But, it did go up dramatically once the economy showed it wasn't doing as bad as feared (there's lots of industrial use), and people were still worried of a debilitating second wave along with inflation from free-money.
Comstock (LODE) is a tiny 10 person company that last fall had a market cap of under $10M. They're pivoting trying to find things in mining that pay out, before looking at reprocessing historic mining tailings, now to mercury mitigation in mining superfund sites and economic development zones. They were losing money, but just announced earnings, and now have made a little, along with talking the big talk for the future. And they have their hands in many other small companies, basically getting a piece of the pie when they work together, so a rising tide can be dramatic. The craziness here is today's release of earnings has the stock double overnight. And the volume so far in the first 30 minutes is more than all outstanding shares! Clearly the traders or algos have gone crazy, suddenly having a green light on a company that again has positive earnings. I have a few shares as a lottery ticket, after having to sell out shares in an account I'm managing that needed to be lower risk. But not enough to move the needle, even on a daily double.
Anyways, this is like taking the kids down their first black diamond, and then going back to skiing the blue runs. Suddenly things look a lot more moderate, and you can focus on making your turns or your other skills.
AAPL has lost its green at the moment, but unlike some microcap with unknown solidity, we have a much clearer view of where Apple and AAPL should be headed.
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Aug 17, 2020 6:45:12 GMT -8
What's the conventional wisdom regarding the beggars-wanting-to-be-choosers action from epic games and perennial self-dealers facebook, in their assaults on the app store? Anything to be worried about there?
These greedy wankers don't seem to realize that without AAPL building the hardware/software/stores and enabling their apps to be seen by the huge Apple audience, they would have no revenue anyway. I think if they (particularly the useless asshats like epic who have no real value to begin with) want to keep complaining they should just try building their own hardware and app store and compete directly in that regard, if they don't like the terms of the Apple app store.
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Post by hyci004 on Aug 17, 2020 7:51:16 GMT -8
What's the conventional wisdom regarding the beggars-wanting-to-be-choosers action from epic games and perennial self-dealers facebook, in their assaults on the app store? Anything to be worried about there? These greedy wankers don't seem to realize that without AAPL building the hardware/software/stores and enabling their apps to be seen by the huge Apple audience, they would have no revenue anyway. I think if they (particularly the useless asshats like epic who have no real value to begin with) want to keep complaining they should just try building their own hardware and app store and compete directly in that regard, if they don't like the terms of the Apple app store. Nothing to be worried about here. FB could just go back to using iOS Safari if they don’t want to pay the fees. FB on iOS started out as a web app before pivoting to a native app.
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 17, 2020 7:51:59 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $464.35
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 17, 2020 8:20:04 GMT -8
What's the conventional wisdom regarding the beggars-wanting-to-be-choosers action from epic games and perennial self-dealers facebook, in their assaults on the app store? Anything to be worried about there? These greedy wankers don't seem to realize that without AAPL building the hardware/software/stores and enabling their apps to be seen by the huge Apple audience, they would have no revenue anyway. I think if they (particularly the useless asshats like epic who have no real value to begin with) want to keep complaining they should just try building their own hardware and app store and compete directly in that regard, if they don't like the terms of the Apple app store. I agree. I posted a link on the weekend to the battle going on over on Seeking Alpha where the article, Apple's Epic Monopoly Problem, got 217 comments, pro and con, very quickly. The comment total now stands at 328 and there seems to be not much commonality between the two viewpoints. You may want to take a look at the article and comments...unless, of course, you've *already* checked in and commented as "Seekingbuddah". 😊
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 17, 2020 9:40:56 GMT -8
Wait, Gregg Thurman is saying $600 post-split? Hell I'd french kiss Gregg to make that come true. Sheet, that would be Ferrari time.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 17, 2020 9:45:50 GMT -8
Wait, Gregg Thurman is saying $600 post-split? Hell I'd french kiss Gregg to make that come true. Sheet, that would be Ferrari time. For only $100k now, we can give you the option to have a Ferrari for just $100 if AAPL passes $600 post split in the next 3 years. Heck, using options you could probably do it with $25k, but I don't have aspirations of owning my own car shop like he did.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 17, 2020 10:28:01 GMT -8
Wait, Gregg Thurman is saying $600 post-split? Hell I'd french kiss Gregg to make that come true. Sheet, that would be Ferrari time. I assume it would be green then?
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Aug 17, 2020 11:15:15 GMT -8
Wait, Gregg Thurman is saying $600 post-split? Hell I'd french kiss Gregg to make that come true. Sheet, that would be Ferrari time. Steady now, JD. No kissing options traders during pandemics. From 3.0: Nicholas Watland said: “$600 by April 2022.” Pre or post split stock price? August 16, 2020 Reply Gregg Thurman said: Pre-split. Doesn’t matter if I’m off by a quarter (either way), I’m going to make a whole lot of money during the journey.1 August 16, 2020
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 17, 2020 11:41:53 GMT -8
Wait, Gregg Thurman is saying $600 post-split? Hell I'd french kiss Gregg to make that come true. Sheet, that would be Ferrari time. Steady now, JD. No kissing options traders during pandemics. From 3.0: Nicholas Watland said: “$600 by April 2022.” Pre or post split stock price? August 16, 2020 Reply Gregg Thurman said: Pre-split. Doesn’t matter if I’m off by a quarter (either way), I’m going to make a whole lot of money during the journey.1 August 16, 2020 That's only a 17% annualized return in the 1.66 years until April 2022 expiration. Using 20% annualized, plus a 10% kicker, I'm looking at writing Sept 2022 covered calls at a total return price of ~742. The 680's are priced at $36.5 now, so it's making it that way. I'm only guessing a 20% chance the stock will make it there then, thus why I would write them. But 15-20% annualized seems like a 50% probability in the next few years, and IMO averaging out to 15+% annualized over the next 5 seems pretty likely. Shorter term things, whether with Apple, the economy, politics, virus, terrorist, or other grey cloud type things could knock it off this course temporarily, but with the right trajectory AAPL could recover, just as it has to exceed 20% annualized over the past 5 and 22 years. Geez, I thought Gregg would be shooting for the moon more than that. But maybe we've all become more grounded with our expectations as we've become older and wiser.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 17, 2020 17:16:15 GMT -8
Yeah, I think Apple hits post split 200+ in 2021. Yikes, that close was a limp as me thinking about kissing Gregg.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Aug 17, 2020 17:22:56 GMT -8
Congrats longs - Actually relieved we paused for a bit today, ha. Slow and steady is the way - a dollar here, a few there - on the slow climb to the split. If we get to 600 or $150 well, that would be insane. in the mean time TSLA took some of the momo in my portfolio today. Here's to another great week, and I was glad to see AAPL play hard ball with epic games. They are trying to initiate a fight, and a legal battle, and it's apple's party, and if they want access to our user base, you need to play by the rules, end of story.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Aug 17, 2020 18:56:43 GMT -8
Yeah, I think Apple hits post split 200+ in 2021. Yikes, that close was a limp as me thinking about kissing Gregg. I don't want to point out that there was car talk, but.....
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 17, 2020 20:45:35 GMT -8
Yeah, I think Apple hits post split 200+ in 2021. Yikes, that close was a limp as me thinking about kissing Gregg. Dang it, guessing at $200+ post split in 2021 and you've got me thinking about a Ferrari, but it gets expensive once you'd need a new house to park it at. Wow! Go big or go home! All this talk does seem to point to AAPL getting a little frothy. But I'll be happy to be wrong on that.
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