4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 21, 2020 11:32:06 GMT -8
Gregg, Zaky, a lot of names being thrown around that I haven’t heard in a while! Love my iPad, Phoebear, Red-headed Ensign, all those guys, I hope they’re doing well. Speaking of which, (Gregg called it ISM, Investor Sentiment Multiple, at least one theAAPLInvestor. I thought Blue Herring had a name for it too, but it did come up that by being based on investors rather than just the figures in it's ratio, it really depended on how people felt about the company and the whole market. I’m pretty sure Gregg used ISM on this board (or rather, one of its previous incarnations) as well, because I never visited the other boards you mentioned and it immediately came to mind. Re: covered calls—I sold one (1!) in a retirement account just before earnings, dumbass that I am, to hedge against what I figured would be a little downside or at least in-line results and the sentiment that would result. Luckily I woke up early enough to buy that back at a fairly reasonable rate. Between the post-earnings IV drop and can’t-believe-it slow hands in the options market, I only lost a little less than a thousand on that, while seeing more than $10,000 upside. I was so astonished the premium on the option rose so slowly in comparison to the underlying, I almost thought to let it ride and buy it back later when bullishness faded. Whew! Red Shirted Ensign visited us a couple weeks ago: aaplfinance.proboards.com/post/115214The delta quadrant is secure. When I left Apple was selling around $150/sh. I understand ( time travel being a paradox) that this will soon be the case again.. Remarkable. I think others occasionally visit too, as guests or under other names. They're definitely here in spirit. Come on AAPL, let's see a $500.01 print! I may be down a few shares at the end of the day, but my accounts are up more than a few digits. Ahhh, memories. The V&T rail bike ride on the day Apple hit $2T. And now a new fridge on this amazing day, with AAPL nearly making it to $500. I might still be able to remember these things in a few years.
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Post by nwjade on Aug 21, 2020 11:59:17 GMT -8
As we've made this incredible move toward $500 it reminds me of my well meaning brother trying to get me to sell back when we were at $500 prior to the 7:1 split... We're now near the equivalent of $3500 without that split... WOW!!! Sure glad I knew better. Another celebratory feel good thought, many of us have beaten Warren Buffett by a decade+ in recognizing aapl as the great investment that it is and have stuck with it through all the ups and downs over the years. Cheers to the longs!
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Post by Lstream on Aug 21, 2020 12:01:31 GMT -8
What a lame-ass pos stock. Runs out of gas pre $500.00. It’s going to $140, I tell ya. Get out now while you can.
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Post by duckpins on Aug 21, 2020 12:03:02 GMT -8
Last I checked he was buying puts. Like Cramer who said 140 was the buy point, not 143 his strategy is completely insane. Cramer though knows from GS what is happening. AZ does not. So Cramer gets some trades right. Like CRM.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 21, 2020 12:03:27 GMT -8
Phew, I need a nap after that week! Cheers to the longs, old and new!
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Post by macster on Aug 21, 2020 12:14:57 GMT -8
I could have bought 4 cars after I bought a new car 2 weeks ago with a few sold shares. I’m flabbergasted
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Aug 21, 2020 12:16:49 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 21, 2020 14:20:18 GMT -8
I could have bought 4 cars after I bought a new car 2 weeks ago with a few sold shares. I’m flabbergasted I made the same mistake, but a lot longer ago. I sold 700 shares (at today's multiple) to buy my Vette (in fairness, they were shares purchased on margin, but still). Coulda had a Lambo or a Ferrari! I learned my lesson and bought my home on a margin loan instead of selling shares.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 21, 2020 14:47:54 GMT -8
I could have bought 4 cars after I bought a new car 2 weeks ago with a few sold shares. I’m flabbergasted I made the same mistake, but a lot longer ago. I sold 700 shares (at today's multiple) to buy my Vette (in fairness, they were shares purchased on margin, but still). Coulda had a Lambo or a Ferrari! I learned my lesson and bought my home on a margin loan instead of selling shares.
Another way to do it is to sell shares, and then buy calls or spreads. Until you mentioned this, I forgot that I did that 10 years ago when I sold shares to buy our house. And it worked out great, letting me get the cash then, but capturing the gain of the next 1.5 years. Ahhh, memories. Looks like I should have bought back those covered calls today, at least in the taxable account. $10k "lost" would have been easier than writing a big check for this estimated payment, due in 3 weeks. Instead I'm diversifying my tax rate by locking in this one on some gains. First world problems, and by no means is it the worst problem to have. With death and taxes, I'll gladly take taxes. Thanks AAPL
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Post by aapltini on Aug 21, 2020 15:30:38 GMT -8
I could have bought 4 cars after I bought a new car 2 weeks ago with a few sold shares. I’m flabbergasted I made the same mistake, but a lot longer ago. I sold 700 shares (at today's multiple) to buy my Vette (in fairness, they were shares purchased on margin, but still). Coulda had a Lambo or a Ferrari! I learned my lesson and bought my home on a margin loan instead of selling shares.
Haha... I did the same thing a month ago. Had to switch from being retired in Ecuador to buying a house in Seattle for my son’s special school needs (which sucks because now we will be paying big tuition for online “learning). Talk about a case of sticker shock- turns out Seattle is slightly more expensive than Ecuador. Mortgage people couldn’t figure out what to do with a 48 year old that hasn’t “worked” in 10 years which left me the option of selling shares (unacceptable) or using my TD Ameritrade margin. For some reason that felt risky but that’s what I did and low and behold, a month later AAPL has paid us enough that I could have bought this overpriced, mediocre home 2x over with this month’s gains alone. Glad I didn’t sell the shares. However, it makes me feel encouraged that many of you have done this same move. Speaking of which, wasn’t it Bud that mortgaged his house like 5 years ago to BTFD? I seem to remember some thought he was crazy. I remember thinking he was crazy like a fox. I have a feeling that move panned out pretty good.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 21, 2020 15:53:46 GMT -8
I could have bought 4 cars after I bought a new car 2 weeks ago with a few sold shares. I’m flabbergasted No sympathy. You have a cool bike and a road trip under your belt.
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Post by macster on Aug 21, 2020 17:34:26 GMT -8
I could have bought 4 cars after I bought a new car 2 weeks ago with a few sold shares. I’m flabbergasted No sympathy. You have a cool bike and a road trip under your belt. One of those ‘wish you were here’ kind of trips and to see what I saw riding that beast of a motorcycle down to Jackson with the Tetons in full view, Jackson Hole Ski Resort, the Bison jams in Cody National Park, the Black Hills, Spearfish Canyon, riding along the Yellowstone river covering all the roads in the park. Sturgis, Mt Rushmore, Devils Tower, the ride to Bozeman from West Yellowstone, the Badlands, Deadwood, Rapid City, Beartooth pass and Red Lodge Mt, Livingston Mt, The ride to Cody Wy from the east gate. By the way how did your road trip go?
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Post by Lstream on Aug 21, 2020 17:48:45 GMT -8
No sympathy. You have a cool bike and a road trip under your belt. One of those ‘wish you were here’ kind of trips and to see what I saw riding that beast of a motorcycle down to Jackson with the Tetons in full view, Jackson Hole Ski Resort, the Bison jams in Cody National Park, the Black Hills, Spearfish Canyon, riding along the Yellowstone river covering all the roads in the park. Sturgis, Mt Rushmore, Devils Tower, the ride to Bozeman from West Yellowstone, the Badlands, Deadwood, Rapid City, Beartooth pass and Red Lodge Mt, Livingston Mt, The ride to Cody Wy from the east gate. By the way how did your road trip go?My big question after doing it was “what took you so long?”. Not sure if you saw my pics from last weekend. When the border opens up again, I would like to do some of the same destinations you mention above. In short, my trip was amazing. I am considering doing another one before winter. Through the Canadian Rockies. There is something intoxicating about no schedule and going where ever you feel like. I saw a lot of bikers on this trip. North Superior is majestic.
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Post by macster on Aug 21, 2020 17:57:10 GMT -8
One of those ‘wish you were here’ kind of trips and to see what I saw riding that beast of a motorcycle down to Jackson with the Tetons in full view, Jackson Hole Ski Resort, the Bison jams in Cody National Park, the Black Hills, Spearfish Canyon, riding along the Yellowstone river covering all the roads in the park. Sturgis, Mt Rushmore, Devils Tower, the ride to Bozeman from West Yellowstone, the Badlands, Deadwood, Rapid City, Beartooth pass and Red Lodge Mt, Livingston Mt, The ride to Cody Wy from the east gate. By the way how did your road trip go?My big question after doing it was “what took you so long?”. Not sure if you saw my pics from last weekend. When the border opens up again, I would like to do some of the same destinations you mention above. In short, my trip was amazing. I am considering doing another one before winter. Through the Canadian Rockies. There is something intoxicating about no schedule and going where ever you feel like. I saw a lot of bikers on this trip. North Superior is majestic. Just saw. Was at the beach and haven’t caught up with all the conversation till now. Great pics, Glad you got away. Thanks for posting pics.
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Post by Stoker on Aug 21, 2020 19:16:19 GMT -8
Wow, spent over a month doing that 7 years ago. Looking forward to that again. I think next to time I want to climb a needle.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 21, 2020 22:22:28 GMT -8
Mortgage people couldn’t figure out what to do with a 48 year old that hasn’t “worked” in 10 years which left me the option of selling shares (unacceptable) or using my TD Ameritrade margin. For some reason that felt risky but that’s what I did and low and behold, a month later AAPL has paid us enough that I could have bought this overpriced, mediocre home 2x over with this month’s gains alone. Glad I didn’t sell the shares. I hope you have talked with TD and gotten them to lower your rates. They matched Interactive Brokers rates for us, back maybe 11 years ago. The difference is huge, and if pushing a mid 6 to low 7 figure borrowing, it really adds up. My recent TD statement shows I'm paying 1.35%. Technically IB is even lower that that, which adds up. They might be down at .75% right now, though it is on a graduated scale. After dealing with IB lately I wouldn't suggest it, but it would save me a non-trivial amount with what I was borrowing, before today. Anyways, you probably have it all figured out now. But if not, and if paying a lot more than that, call them. IB has the lowest rates but TDA will match. Schwab has some great mortgage rates if you have a sizable account with them. If borrowing a lot on margin, enough that it could possibly cause issues with a big drop, open a HELOC. We have that, just in case. It doesn't much matter anymore, but a few years back if AAPL had taken a huge hit, it could have been possible that we would need it to not get a margin call. I like having a backup plan. Good luck. Ping me if you need more details.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Aug 22, 2020 3:21:16 GMT -8
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Post by macster on Aug 22, 2020 4:21:13 GMT -8
PED gave me a chuckle “Biden Bump” He has been very candid about his political leanings in his writings over the years.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Aug 22, 2020 6:38:49 GMT -8
PED gave me a chuckle “Biden Bump” He has been very candid about his political leanings in his writings over the years. Yes, that is why I recommended reading the comments section which I thought was a great conversation on AAPL.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 22, 2020 7:15:56 GMT -8
Yes, that is why I recommended reading the comments section which I thought was a great conversation on AAPL. The problem with the comments area is that it's easy to get set in your ways, or opinions, and not see other possibilities or outcomes. Plus it's a very un-diverse group in terms of it's opinion on AAPL. To say that AAPL can't overcorrect on the downside throws out the example from just 5 months ago, the March 23rd low that was amazingly low.. 212, whereas many were thinking 260 or 250 was bound to be the bottom. Sure, it didn't stay there long. But the absolute highs and lows often don't stick around too long. And then there is a lot of euphoria talking. It's hard not to, especially as those that try to be slightly more cautious get cast aside as doubters when the stock continues to accelerate. But, that's the point of the whole PED article, pointing out all those analysts that are underwater after AAPL had a blow-out week. And a blow-out few weeks. It's one thing when it's based on fundamentals or even some change in sentiment, where one can adjust the models a little and get a likely scenario. It's different when the whole P/E range is changing so dramatically, for a variety of reasons. When there is such a big change, sometimes you just have to accept it without understanding the full underlying reason, making it the "new normal". But to expect analysts to upgrade their 12 month target on a daily or weekly basis to adjust for this rapid change? That's tough, especially looking at the reverse, of adjustments on the way down. Instead, I can see them doing just what they are doing, sitting back for a moment while they see what huge changes are happening and things settle a little, so that they can absorb what this new benchmark is and make a slightly more educated guess from that point. I'm not an analyst, and don't even try to play one on the internet, instead going with the simple math of an overall x% per year. But I've managed to do ok. Good luck all. Careful out there. Enjoy it, but realize that things might be a little frothy. Think hard before adding to you risk by trading your house for 2 tulip bulbs.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 22, 2020 11:56:46 GMT -8
PED gave me a chuckle “Biden Bump” He has been very candid about his political leanings in his writings over the years. Which is why I am not a PED subscriber. Get woke, go broke. And yes I am sure Tim Cook is just dying to reverse the Trump tax corporate cuts and have a pro-antitrust Democrat-run DOJ right now.
Of course, Biden would open up the H1B floodgates to displace American STEM grads from jobs, so there's that.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 22, 2020 12:40:55 GMT -8
PED gave me a chuckle “Biden Bump” He has been very candid about his political leanings in his writings over the years. Which is why I am not a PED subscriber. Get woke, go broke. And yes I am sure Tim Cook is just dying to reverse the Trump tax corporate cuts and have a pro-antitrust Democrat-run DOJ right now.
Of course, Biden would open up the H1B floodgates to displace American STEM grads from jobs, so there's that. So, I am quite familiar with at least one aspect of this. Software engineers. I don’t agree that there is displacement going on. There is a supply/demand imbalance. Tech firms can never find enough qualified people. There are a bunch of Silicon Valley examples of companies that were started by immigrant engineers. That in turn employ a large number of native Americans. Silicon Valley has thrived because of a culture of hiring the absolute best, no matter where they came from. That environment is the envy of the world. Vancouver and Toronto are turning into tech hubs because a lot of these people no longer feel welcome in the US. My son is a software engineer. Worked for a Canadian company that moved to the US. He decided to move with them. Then they went bankrupt. He had two offers in a week. His employer was looking for over a year before they hired him. They would have gladly avoided hiring him if they could have, since they incurred significant expenses related to immigration. But they had no choice if they wanted to fill the position. Companies are not hiring foreign grads because they are cheap. They need to if they want to secure enough technical talent. I think for these people that displacement idea is a myth.
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 22, 2020 15:04:32 GMT -8
Which is why I am not a PED subscriber. Get woke, go broke. And yes I am sure Tim Cook is just dying to reverse the Trump tax corporate cuts and have a pro-antitrust Democrat-run DOJ right now.
Of course, Biden would open up the H1B floodgates to displace American STEM grads from jobs, so there's that. So, I am quite familiar with at least one aspect of this. Software engineers. I don’t agree that there is displacement going on. There is a supply/demand imbalance. Tech firms can never find enough qualified people. There are a bunch of Silicon Valley examples of companies that were started by immigrant engineers. That in turn employ a large number of native Americans. Silicon Valley has thrived because of a culture of hiring the absolute best, no matter where they came from. That environment is the envy of the world. Vancouver and Toronto are turning into tech hubs because a lot of these people no longer feel welcome in the US. My son is a software engineer. Worked for a Canadian company that moved to the US. He decided to move with them. Then they went bankrupt. He had two offers in a week. His employer was looking for over a year before they hired him. They would have gladly avoided hiring him if they could have, since they incurred significant expenses related to immigration. But they had no choice if they wanted to fill the position. Companies are not hiring foreign grads because they are cheap. They need to if they want to secure enough technical talent. I think for these people that displacement idea is a myth. Thanks for posting this Lstream. I've lived in Silicon Valley since 1957, before it even *was* Silicon Valley. I have my own opinion about this subject, but have no personal experience to validate that opinion. I now have at least *one* personal confirmation...but that one confirmation still puts me ahead of most on the subject.
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Post by macster on Aug 22, 2020 18:12:58 GMT -8
So, I am quite familiar with at least one aspect of this. Software engineers. I don’t agree that there is displacement going on. There is a supply/demand imbalance. Tech firms can never find enough qualified people. There are a bunch of Silicon Valley examples of companies that were started by immigrant engineers. That in turn employ a large number of native Americans. Silicon Valley has thrived because of a culture of hiring the absolute best, no matter where they came from. That environment is the envy of the world. Vancouver and Toronto are turning into tech hubs because a lot of these people no longer feel welcome in the US. My son is a software engineer. Worked for a Canadian company that moved to the US. He decided to move with them. Then they went bankrupt. He had two offers in a week. His employer was looking for over a year before they hired him. They would have gladly avoided hiring him if they could have, since they incurred significant expenses related to immigration. But they had no choice if they wanted to fill the position. Companies are not hiring foreign grads because they are cheap. They need to if they want to secure enough technical talent. I think for these people that displacement idea is a myth. Thanks for posting this Lstream. I've lived in Silicon Valley since 1957, before it even *was* Silicon Valley. I have my own opinion about this subject, but have no personal experience to validate that opinion. I now have at least *one* personal confirmation...but that one confirmation still puts me ahead of most on the subject. Trump administration Increasing investment in American Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Education for students in K-12, post-secondary, or college programmes. www.ed.gov/stem
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 22, 2020 19:22:03 GMT -8
Thanks for posting this Lstream. I've lived in Silicon Valley since 1957, before it even *was* Silicon Valley. I have my own opinion about this subject, but have no personal experience to validate that opinion. I now have at least *one* personal confirmation...but that one confirmation still puts me ahead of most on the subject. Trump administration Increasing investment in American Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Education for students in K-12, post-secondary, or college programmes. www.ed.gov/stemLooks like we have managed to stray here. Work visa's, for STEM and others, have been around through many presidencies, even if some changes or restrictions have been made over the years. I don't know all the details, but we had guys from India back in 1999 working with us at Motorola on SW, and there was some story about how their salary had to be high to show that there weren't any US workers willing to take the job. But, that doesn't have much to do, specifically, with Apple or AAPL. This is that timeframe, in the months before a presidential election, where it's easy to stray. I'm sure there is a place, somewhere on the internet, that is better than the AAPL Finance Board to post political stuff. The dungeon is there if you really want, though it seems like there must be a better place, somewhere. Thanks all, for your continued effort in keeping this place on-topic.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Aug 23, 2020 3:18:38 GMT -8
I like to link to PED’s comments section because it’s a conversation on AAPL/Apple by those “that have skin in the game“. I’m guessing that their investments may be a very important source of income for each of them, just as it is for me. I don’t always agree with their views, but I do value those views, just as I do here on this forum. It’s the conversation that gives us a sense of direction and sometimes comfort in our investing decisions. I find it strange that PED has only recently, as in this past year, bought his first shares of AAPL. That’s always in the back of my mind when he gives “My take” at the end of a news story. Most of the time I agree with his viewpoint, sometimes I don’t agree. But I am thankful for his website and the effort that he makes each day to make it the best it can be. A great philosophy for life, whatever you may be doing, do the best that you can. Thanks everyone for the conversation.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 23, 2020 6:55:39 GMT -8
I like to link to PED’s comments section because it’s a conversation on AAPL/Apple by those “that have skin in the game“. I’m guessing that their investments may be a very important source of income for each of them, just as it is for me. I don’t always agree with their views, but I do value those views, just as I do here on this forum. It’s the conversation that gives us a sense of direction and sometimes comfort in our investing decisions. I find it strange that PED has only recently, as in this past year, bought his first shares of AAPL. That’s always in the back of my mind when he gives “My take” at the end of a news story. Most of the time I agree with his viewpoint, sometimes I don’t agree. But I am thankful for his website and the effort that he makes each day to make it the best it can be. A great philosophy for life, whatever you may be doing, do the best that you can. Thanks everyone for the conversation. Thanks Dave! I think the comments are great for what they are, from people that mostly have been investing in AAPL for a long time and know a lot more about Apple than the average joe. OTOH, many of us have been through the ups and downs, and seen others go through the ups and downs. I have a hard time understanding the feeling of "this time is different, and that will never happen again", when it just happened. Everyone sees things a little different. We gain by seeing multiple viewpoints, but we have to remember in the AAPL land that we might still get blindsided if we're only looking at somewhat to very bullish opinions.
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Aug 23, 2020 8:15:42 GMT -8
I made the same mistake, but a lot longer ago. I sold 700 shares (at today's multiple) to buy my Vette (in fairness, they were shares purchased on margin, but still). Coulda had a Lambo or a Ferrari! I learned my lesson and bought my home on a margin loan instead of selling shares.
Haha... I did the same thing a month ago. Had to switch from being retired in Ecuador to buying a house in Seattle for my son’s special school needs (which sucks because now we will be paying big tuition for online “learning). Talk about a case of sticker shock- turns out Seattle is slightly more expensive than Ecuador. Mortgage people couldn’t figure out what to do with a 48 year old that hasn’t “worked” in 10 years which left me the option of selling shares (unacceptable) or using my TD Ameritrade margin. For some reason that felt risky but that’s what I did and low and behold, a month later AAPL has paid us enough that I could have bought this overpriced, mediocre home 2x over with this month’s gains alone. Glad I didn’t sell the shares. However, it makes me feel encouraged that many of you have done this same move. Speaking of which, wasn’t it Bud that mortgaged his house like 5 years ago to BTFD? I seem to remember some thought he was crazy. I remember thinking he was crazy like a fox. I have a feeling that move panned out pretty good. I think I owe the board an update on my leap off the cliff. Back in April of 2013, AAPL had been beaten down to 400 by the Samsung FUD offensive and mortgage rates were around 2.75%. At that time the yield on APPl was about 3%, so I mortgaged my house and took out $400,000 and put it into Apple stock. When I told Quicken loans what I intended to do, they were very supportive and offered a 2.375% rate. The difference between The dividends from Apple and the interest on the loan produced about $3000 per year in income. I was able to add 900 shares pre-split as AAPL moved up to around $420 per share by the time we closed. That 900 became 6300 shares after the split. I sold covered calls against the shares and made about $80,000 off the calls. This left me with a big tax bill, so I gave 1300 shares to my university as a Gift Annuity that offset the taxes and pays about $6000 per year. The remaining 5000 shares have appreciated nicely. I recently sold the house so I could move closer to my grandchildren. We moved to Minneapolis where housing prices are lower, so were able to buy a nice home on a lake outright and pay off the mortgage. We are now debt free again and continue to watch AAPL grow. I am indebted to all of you who offered advice, especially J.D., LovemyIpad, and Artman . If I see another opportunity like this one, you can bet I will share it here.
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