chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Aug 22, 2020 7:38:06 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Aug 22, 2020 8:18:58 GMT -8
Another leverage story. A few years back, my business had an investor who was running out of money. We were backed by venture capital and had plans and investors willing to invest. Said investor tried to force the sale of the business. Their money had priority so they would have done quite well. It was too soon to sell, so others would have done poorly. After that idea failed, they would not cooperate and blocked new money. Pushing our company right to the edge of running out of money. As a way to force us to buy them out.
We never blinked but they did, and got so desperate that they agreed to be bought out for less then 20 cents on the dollar. Existing shareholders had to fund that. Including me. I considered selling some AAPL shares to pay my share. About $300k worth. If I had not stepped up, then the other shareholders would not have participated.
I decided to take on debt instead and had to use home equity as collateral. Wife freaked out, but agreed to it. AAPL is up about 6x since then. I still have the debt. My current thinking is that sometime in 2021, I will retire that debt, especially at these prices. Ideally closer to $600.
So another story where leverage has really paid off. Helped out by historically low interest rates. Just one more near-death experience that are typical in the startup world. Later on a patent troll almost killed us. But they didn’t.
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Post by BillH on Aug 22, 2020 8:35:22 GMT -8
I'd doubt the Apple of today is the same one that he was invited to speak to in the 80's but a lot of what he has to say feels fairly accurate to the Apple I know. He does have quite the pedigree. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_WinerThanks for digging up the article Chinacat. Interesting read.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 22, 2020 8:48:23 GMT -8
I'd doubt the Apple of today is the same one that he was invited to speak to in the 80's but a lot of what he has to say feels fairly accurate to the Apple I know. He does have quite the pedigree. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_WinerThanks for digging up the article Chinacat. Interesting read. I think hate is too strong of a word. But Apple has undoubtedly created A LOT of resentment amongst developers. I have posted about this previously.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Aug 22, 2020 8:52:26 GMT -8
I'd doubt the Apple of today is the same one that he was invited to speak to in the 80's but a lot of what he has to say feels fairly accurate to the Apple I know. He does have quite the pedigree. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_WinerThanks for digging up the article Chinacat. Interesting read. Thanks for the reference. I worked in software for 40 years, entry level programmer to small business owner, startups to IBM, and I have a hard time believing that any company could be as successful as Apple when seething with that much discontent, but clearly you have much more experience with and knowledge about the company than I do.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Aug 22, 2020 8:56:03 GMT -8
It just occurred to me that I may have misunderstood what was meant by developers. I was thinking internal, but perhaps both you and the article meant external.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 22, 2020 9:05:14 GMT -8
It just occurred to me that I may have misunderstood what was meant by developers. I was thinking internal, but perhaps both you and the article meant external. Yes, external.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Aug 22, 2020 9:19:11 GMT -8
It just occurred to me that I may have misunderstood what was meant by developers. I was thinking internal, but perhaps both you and the article meant external. Yes, external. Ah, yes...essentially demanding “customers/partners” - I experienced that just about everywhere I worked .
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Post by BillH on Aug 22, 2020 9:37:20 GMT -8
I'd doubt the Apple of today is the same one that he was invited to speak to in the 80's but a lot of what he has to say feels fairly accurate to the Apple I know. He does have quite the pedigree. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_WinerThanks for digging up the article Chinacat. Interesting read. I think hate is too strong of a word. But Apple has undoubtedly created A LOT of resentment amongst developers. I have posted about this previously. Agreed. I'm a very happy customer and stockholder but I'm not sure I'd be happy either working there or having to work with them. In some respects their single minded focus on where they want to go almost insures the difficulty that becomes apparent from time to time. In Epics case I don't blame Apple for thinking "greedy bastard". In other stories I've read my heart goes out to the developer.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 22, 2020 9:43:48 GMT -8
Ah, yes...essentially demanding “customers/partners” - I experienced that just about everywhere I worked . Demanding is one thing. See that all the time. But Apple takes it to another level. An example that I think I have mentioned before. We had been in the App Store for years. I am on a business trip. An email thread shows up that is discussing that we have been kicked out of the App Store. No explanation, we are just gone. All kinds of scrambling ensues. We reach out to Apple and are told we are in violation of the terms. You can’t call these people, you have to send in an enquiry that goes into a big funnel. No explanation of what terms. We go for a couple of days having no idea what we did wrong. Eventually, we find out that having a phone number in your app telling customers who to call if they need support was the issue. That number has been in the app for a long time with no issue. Apple interprets this as a violation of their rules designed to stop end running their store, I think. We tried to get Apple to let us keep the number, but they refused. We took it out and we were put back in the store. But not before we were embarrassed in front of customers who could no longer find us or get our app. We have lots of other examples. In this one, we were thrown into chaos trying to figure out what the problem was. Would it have killed Apple to warn us that we were in violation before booting us with no warning? That is the kind of arbitrary disregard that sows unnecessary resentment.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 22, 2020 9:45:57 GMT -8
I think hate is too strong of a word. But Apple has undoubtedly created A LOT of resentment amongst developers. I have posted about this previously. Agreed. I'm a very happy customer and stockholder but I'm not sure I'd be happy either working there or having to work with them. In some respects their single minded focus on where they want to go almost insures the difficulty that becomes apparent from time to time. In Epics case I don't blame Apple for thinking "greedy bastard". In other stories I've read my heart goes out to the developer. I read some of the legal filings re Epic earlier today. I have no sympathy for them whatsoever. Their CEO comes across as a complete jerk.
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Post by BillH on Aug 22, 2020 9:58:59 GMT -8
I'd doubt the Apple of today is the same one that he was invited to speak to in the 80's but a lot of what he has to say feels fairly accurate to the Apple I know. He does have quite the pedigree. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_WinerThanks for digging up the article Chinacat. Interesting read. Thanks for the reference. I worked in software for 40 years, entry level programmer to small business owner, startups to IBM, and I have a hard time believing that any company could be as successful as Apple when seething with that much discontent, but clearly you have much more experience with and knowledge about the company than I do. I'd just like to object to your thinking that I have either more experience or more knowledge than you or anyone here. Having been a Steve Jobs fan since buying the original Mac I've been following him for a really long time. Ron Johnson was a neighbor of ours in Minnesota. My daughter babysat his kids and somehow my being a fan of Apple came up in their conversations so he would stop and chat with the kids in the stroller on the way to the park when he found me out in the driveway. It was fun to hear him talk about being recruited by Steve to start their retail ambitions. His wife wasn't very keen on the idea of moving to California so Steve flew her out and plunked her and Ron in the front row of a Macworld keynote. As was custom then they always had a musician close the show. Maybe John Mayer in this case. Anyway, she looked at Ron while this was all going on and told him to take the job. . I also have a nephew that worked there and rose pretty high in the marketing department but finally got fed up and left in the past year. He couldn't talk any more about what was happening in Apple than anyone else and told me once that I knew more of what was happening there than he did given their own focus on their own roles while I had the whole universe of anecdotes and rumors to draw from. That's about all the inside baseball I've ever had. I'm guessing you're a lot closer to the reality of the industry than I'll ever be. Just sayin.
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Post by deasys on Aug 22, 2020 10:09:19 GMT -8
I'd doubt the Apple of today is the same one that he was invited to speak to in the 80's but a lot of what he has to say feels fairly accurate to the Apple I know. He does have quite the pedigree. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_WinerWiner has long been a whiner. From your citation: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Winer#Writer"In the early years, Winer often used DaveNet to vent his grievances against Apple's management, and as a consequence of his strident criticism came to be seen as 'the most notorious of the disgruntled Apple developers.'"
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 22, 2020 10:39:25 GMT -8
Thanks for the reference. I worked in software for 40 years, entry level programmer to small business owner, startups to IBM, and I have a hard time believing that any company could be as successful as Apple when seething with that much discontent, but clearly you have much more experience with and knowledge about the company than I do. I'd just like to object to your thinking that I have either more experience or more knowledge than you or anyone here. Having been a Steve Jobs fan since buying the original Mac I've been following him for a really long time. Ron Johnson was a neighbor of ours in Minnesota. My daughter babysat his kids and somehow my being a fan of Apple came up in their conversations so he would stop and chat with the kids in the stroller on the way to the park when he found me out in the driveway. It was fun to hear him talk about being recruited by Steve to start their retail ambitions. His wife wasn't very keen on the idea of moving to California so Steve flew her out and plunked her and Ron in the front row of a Macworld keynote. As was custom then they always had a musician close the show. Maybe John Mayer in this case. Anyway, she looked at Ron while this was all going on and told him to take the job. . I also have a nephew that worked there and rose pretty high in the marketing department but finally got fed up and left in the past year. He couldn't talk any more about what was happening in Apple than anyone else and told me once that I knew more of what was happening there than he did given their own focus on their own roles while I had the whole universe of anecdotes and rumors to draw from. That's about all the inside baseball I've ever had. I'm guessing you're a lot closer to the reality of the industry than I'll ever be. Just sayin. Wow. There are lots of times in life where you get one thing in your head, especially from a bad experience, and it's hard to shake. And there are bad managers, or personality mismatches, everywhere. Even at Apple. That's especially tough, with the often advance of a good or even great programmer, maybe to a team lead, and then a manager. Just because someone was good at programming doesn't mean they are a good manager. That's the opposite of the blog post, having managers that don't know anything about the product. Both cases are bad. I had one manager that I label as bad though some things were my fault too. That drove me out of the division that I enjoyed and actually had challenge in, along with responsibility and what felt like (and probably was) respect. Instead, I moved to a boring group (Pages), at a time where my portfolio was doing decent and we were having our first child. If I had stayed in the challenging area, maybe I would still be there today. We dealt with more large end users than developers, so the requests would come in with something like "University of Michigan is hitting this, and they have 40,000 systems". Or I'd talk to end users at MacWorld or WWDC, finding out directly what they were hitting or wanting, sharing what I could. We were working together, and while there were things I knew of that I couldn't share, especially if I fished around in Radar after-hours (nice pics of a 40ml soda spill test onto an unannounced laptop), it was all fine. Just to cover my ass, I got in the habit of posting links to AppleInsider if I was posting about a rumor. At the same time, around the time OS X was coming out, I remember our lab having fun sometimes by seeing what was on the rumor sites. Apple is like most places, where some things are good and some aren't, especially in terms of specific managers or coworkers. As a contractor, it turned out one of the others added shortly after me was stealing laptops from the floor, and another covered for him. A 3rd, when let go for whatever reason, sued due to feeling he was being discriminated for being Russian. A 4th, who really wasn't doing too great, was kept partly due to that suit. At least a few employees were let go for downloading mp3s, or having an mp3 server. That sounds like a lot of drama, and in a way it was, but it was also mostly newer people in their mid to late 20s. But the shared interest in having Apple succeed, at a time where Apple was still small, helped give an added boost. This wasn't the age of "90 hrs a week and loving it", but it still was a bit of David vs Goliath, where we were moving quick with great products. There's always going to be outliers or disagreements. But IMO, Apple was trying to do the right thing, and continues to do so, possibly even more than they once did. It could be much different now, 13+ years later, than it was then. But I feel that Apple continues to try to do the right thing.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 22, 2020 10:44:09 GMT -8
Ono suggested I put this post over on the weekend thread: Yes, that is why I recommended reading the comments section which I thought was a great conversation on AAPL. The problem with the comments area is that it's easy to get set in your ways, or opinions, and not see other possibilities or outcomes. Plus it's a very un-diverse group in terms of it's opinion on AAPL. To say that AAPL can't overcorrect on the downside throws out the example from just 5 months ago, the March 23rd low that was amazingly low.. 212, whereas many were thinking 260 or 250 was bound to be the bottom. Sure, it didn't stay there long. But the absolute highs and lows often don't stick around too long. And then there is a lot of euphoria talking. It's hard not to, especially as those that try to be slightly more cautious get cast aside as doubters when the stock continues to accelerate. But, that's the point of the whole PED article, pointing out all those analysts that are underwater after AAPL had a blow-out week. And a blow-out few weeks. It's one thing when it's based on fundamentals or even some change in sentiment, where one can adjust the models a little and get a likely scenario. It's different when the whole P/E range is changing so dramatically, for a variety of reasons. When there is such a big change, sometimes you just have to accept it without understanding the full underlying reason, making it the "new normal". But to expect analysts to upgrade their 12 month target on a daily or weekly basis to adjust for this rapid change? That's tough, especially looking at the reverse, of adjustments on the way down. Instead, I can see them doing just what they are doing, sitting back for a moment while they see what huge changes are happening and things settle a little, so that they can absorb what this new benchmark is and make a slightly more educated guess from that point. I'm not an analyst, and don't even try to play one on the internet, instead going with the simple math of an overall x% per year. But I've managed to do ok. Good luck all. Careful out there. Enjoy it, but realize that things might be a little frothy. Think hard before adding to you risk by trading your house for 2 tulip bulbs.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 22, 2020 12:11:13 GMT -8
Some balanced and informative takes, LStream. As a non-developer shareholder, my main take is, where would these external developers and businesses be without the App Store? Obviously, they were ham handed with you and maybe there's an arrogance there that does not serve any of the parties well. Since I can't even picture the numbers involved, It's hard to even imagine the size of the call centers of properly trained staff members that would be required to handle the volume of app-related calls. The mere existence of a call center might encourage more and more calls. Seems pretty expensive versus the "we'll get back to you" email. Kind of like with a co-pay in health insurance, you need some sort of deterrent from the inevitable abuse of some hypochondriac coming into the emergency room every day.
Have you ever considered a thoughtful letter on the subject from a shareholder/developer to Tim, or the appropriate SVP? One of my concerns is right now various app developers or news publishers teaming up to extort Apple. Pretty ironic when you consider the restraint of trade issues involved in such collusion.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Aug 23, 2020 4:17:32 GMT -8
From the Patently Apple link that Chinacat provided is this quote that I think says it all:
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Post by Lstream on Aug 23, 2020 4:45:13 GMT -8
Some balanced and informative takes, LStream. As a non-developer shareholder, my main take is, where would these external developers and businesses be without the App Store? Obviously, they were ham handed with you and maybe there's an arrogance there that does not serve any of the parties well. Since I can't even picture the numbers involved, It's hard to even imagine the size of the call centers of properly trained staff members that would be required to handle the volume of app-related calls. The mere existence of a call center might encourage more and more calls. Seems pretty expensive versus the "we'll get back to you" email. Kind of like with a co-pay in health insurance, you need some sort of deterrent from the inevitable abuse of some hypochondriac coming into the emergency room every day.
Have you ever considered a thoughtful letter on the subject from a shareholder/developer to Tim, or the appropriate SVP? One of my concerns is right now various app developers or news publishers teaming up to extort Apple. Pretty ironic when you consider the restraint of trade issues involved in such collusion. Some good points here. My perspective is that the App Store is a huge win for developers overall. It democratizes the playing field so that developers of any size and means can get instant distribution to millions in an instant. With no distribution costs whatsoever. And with security and malware protection that the customer can count on. It is a massive step forward compared to how things used to be. Our company just offered an internship to a high school student who got his first app onto the store in GRADE SIX! Apple has empowered businesses and developers in a revolutionary way with the App Store. I agree with you on the call center comment. Just imagine the routing complexities to find the right person who has the information and knowledge you need. I have thought about a letter to Tim, but I doubt I have anything unique to say or offer. If you want to be outraged, have a read of the Sweeny emails on the Epic saga. He starts off with a condescending email telling Apple leadership that they have two weeks to agree to his ludicrous requests that would undermine Apple’s entire App Store model. After that very App Store has made his company millions. The guy has a lot of nerve. So overall, as a developer Apple and the App Store is a huge positive for us. I don’t want my complaints to come across as thinking it is anything but a net positive. There are many things that the company could do better to minimize the chaos they impose on developers, and lower the resentment they are creating. Hopefully they are listening and doing that.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Aug 23, 2020 5:25:02 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Aug 23, 2020 5:47:41 GMT -8
Cute how that TechCrunch guy thinks he is important and that he has one useful thought. Even his dumb ass dongle argument is willfully ignorant. Any ass clown can get “published” these days it seems. Self delusion is amusing.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Aug 23, 2020 6:47:41 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 23, 2020 10:46:38 GMT -8
Cute how that TechCrunch guy thinks he is important and that he has one useful thought. Even his dumb ass dongle argument is willfully ignorant. Any ass clown can get “published” these days it seems. Self delusion is amusing. OMG, he trips and does a faceplant with his first two sentences: "Apple’s a hard company to like these days. Their glory days behind them, they have relentlessly pursued a misguided concept of optimization that has alienated their user base and compromised their products.Who could take seriously anything he says in the rest of his article after he's revealed his total lack of ability to clearly view Apple as it exists today. Apple's a hard company to like...and their glory days are behind them? Wow!
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 23, 2020 21:34:38 GMT -8
I will post once and come back in 12 months. Yes my target numbers have not been accurate from my Sept weekly thread. but I can afford to be wrong by a few months being in cash and now in puts. Apple going up 110 points since then made me excited about the opportunity that the incoming crash will bring and scared at the same time. Many will lose billions Those who bought 10 years ago will feel serious pain. TC needs to be fired. He said minimal impact in China and they are simply starting sterile efforts in China stores. Since he loves Chinese data and relied on its government for permission, he waited until after market close on Friday to announce all store closures. Keep in mind what happened last time all stores were open but for some crazy reason sales dropped 20% in China alone. If you think they will open stores in one week I have a bridge to sell you. There is plenty of data on the net about the virus outbreak. Those who think this is just another flu will be sadly mistaken. Yes we could look at least 20 million deaths in 12 months or sooner. I see a 12% drop next week and stock will be halted at least 2 times this quarter with letters about restatement of sales for Q2. Won’t bore you with TA numbers but a p/e of 26 when net income up $2 billion in 2 years should make many pause. Just look at what happened to p/e when it was this high. Tim Cook should have listened to many who said get out. For profits and his love of socialism and communism he chose the latter. I would get out and follow my advise on Apple. We are in a world of hurt that will last for 2-4 years. I'm not posting this to dump on sponge. I disagreed with him on so many issues regarding Apple/AAPL, certainly with respect to his animosity towards Tim Cook...and if he stayed in cash and puts, he not only lost out on the AAPL gains we've seen since he posted, but on his puts as well. I shared his concern about the coronavirus pandemic...in fact I still do. My wife and I missed out on thousands of dollars of gains by not auto-reinvesting May's IRA dividends as we've done every quarter since 2012; and the reason we didn't is because I was 100% convinced the market and AAPL would take a plunge as a result of the pandemic. I was wrong and, so far, so was sponge. I wish him well.
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Post by wildguess on Aug 24, 2020 1:48:25 GMT -8
AAPL up 9.52 to 507 in pre-market. WOW!
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Post by Lstream on Aug 24, 2020 2:13:49 GMT -8
I will post once and come back in 12 months. Yes my target numbers have not been accurate from my Sept weekly thread. but I can afford to be wrong by a few months being in cash and now in puts. Apple going up 110 points since then made me excited about the opportunity that the incoming crash will bring and scared at the same time. Many will lose billions Those who bought 10 years ago will feel serious pain. TC needs to be fired. He said minimal impact in China and they are simply starting sterile efforts in China stores. Since he loves Chinese data and relied on its government for permission, he waited until after market close on Friday to announce all store closures. Keep in mind what happened last time all stores were open but for some crazy reason sales dropped 20% in China alone. If you think they will open stores in one week I have a bridge to sell you. There is plenty of data on the net about the virus outbreak. Those who think this is just another flu will be sadly mistaken. Yes we could look at least 20 million deaths in 12 months or sooner. I see a 12% drop next week and stock will be halted at least 2 times this quarter with letters about restatement of sales for Q2. Won’t bore you with TA numbers but a p/e of 26 when net income up $2 billion in 2 years should make many pause. Just look at what happened to p/e when it was this high. Tim Cook should have listened to many who said get out. For profits and his love of socialism and communism he chose the latter. I would get out and follow my advise on Apple. We are in a world of hurt that will last for 2-4 years. I'm not posting this to dump on sponge. I disagreed with him on so many issues regarding Apple/AAPL, certainly with respect to his animosity towards Tim Cook...and if he stayed in cash and puts, he not only lost out on the AAPL gains we've seen since he posted, but on his puts as well. I shared his concern about the coronavirus pandemic...in fact I still do. My wife and I missed out on thousands of dollars of gains by not auto-reinvesting May's IRA dividends as we've done every quarter since 2012; and the reason we didn't is because I was 100% convinced the market and AAPL would take a plunge as a result of the pandemic. I was wrong and, so far, so was sponge. I wish him well. You are too kind. Everyone is wrong sometimes. Nothing wrong with that. But to continually troll this place carrying on like some kind of lecturing, condescending expert is in a different league. Especially from someone who has lost his entire AAPL investment at least twice. I think he was blinded by schadenfreude after watching a bunch of us make serous money on the stock, when he was incapable of doing so himself. His theme of firing Cook, in the typical know-it-all language is especially ridiculous, coming from someone who should never have been allowed to lose his investment training wheels is especially stupid. If he acted on his convictions, he would have been smashed again. If he shows up again, maybe he ought to do so with a smigin of humility next time. Especially when he is surrounded by people whose investment decisions and faith in this company have been rewarded well beyond his know-it-all class clown approach.
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