Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,052
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Post by Dave on Aug 28, 2020 2:34:25 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,052
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Post by Dave on Aug 28, 2020 2:43:35 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,052
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Post by Dave on Aug 28, 2020 2:48:14 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,052
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Post by Dave on Aug 28, 2020 2:55:28 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 28, 2020 5:55:47 GMT -8
Common misunderstanding is that money in a bank is dead money for the economy (banks loan and invest when you deposit your money with them). Regardless, that's the dumb mantra we get from many quarters, spend spend spend instead of save and build some financial independence. So dumb. An awful lot of people right now are finding out the hard way that they should have saved for a rainy day. And of course zero rates (which are here to stay forever; Jerome Powell is now the Wizard of Oz) do not incentivize savings.
And it's not like the investor class doesn't spend money. Another dopey trope. I bought my house with AAPL equity FFS.
One immutable rule: Whenever you see wealth build somewhere, there will be someone looking at it menacingly, "Nice pile of money you have there. It would be a shame if anything happened to it." Mind your own P's and Q's PED!
Let's finish the day green, with 4X the amount of shares of our little fruit company trading on Monday.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Aug 28, 2020 7:49:46 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 28, 2020 9:22:07 GMT -8
Just remember, AAPL is up ~ 440% since the last split.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 28, 2020 9:56:02 GMT -8
Just remember, AAPL is up ~ 440% since the last split. Of course looking at performance around and after a split is different than looking at performance due to a split. The overreactionary dip before the last split helped spring load things a bit. And then Apple has managed to do a lot since then. This time around it's not cut and dry either. Apple and AAPL have done great. I wouldn't be surprised with a dip down to $480/$120, but randomly throwing odds at that happening in the next couple weeks, it might only be 30%. With maybe 40% on an upside, and 30% on staying flat-ish. But yea, AAPL has had a great track record, at most any timeframe.
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Post by duckpins on Aug 28, 2020 11:30:51 GMT -8
"Winning investments this year include technology stocks, gold and, umm, lumber. Yes, lumber: pieces of wood may not be as glitzy as Apple or bullion. But like them, lumber and other assets linked to home construction have been big beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve. Helping home-building is one obvious way to help the economy."
With a third of the people late on rent, housing and apartment living could be considerably cheaper in a year or so. I don't know how the fed effects lumbar, but less demand for new houses will drive the price down. I remember during the rebuild from the Oakland firestorm the price of lumbar skyrocketed just because they could. Had to believe adding 3000 structures to the number of new constructions across the state effected the supply.
There are too many unknowns right now to have any kind of certainty about future prices of Apple. Most likely after the meteoric rise it will follow the market for a while. But who could have thought TSLA would do what it did. I note Cramer who is now hyping TSLA was shorting it with his minions on his website just a year or two ago when it soared to 200+.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 28, 2020 11:53:04 GMT -8
There's some crazy new option strikes out there that even the most bullish could be tempted by. The ones I see are Sept '22's, at 740 for $48/50.
But then there are 800's at 40.5/42.5, 900's at 31.5/32.5, and 1000's at 25/25.1. Those 1k's would have an annualized gain of 40% to get there, while giving you $25/share plus the dividend.
Hmmmm
(Learn: Trade first, talk later. Just like the song the Gambler. Only got a taker for 1 Sept '22 1000 for $24.75, instead of 40. Quite some action there at the close. Monday should be higher volume, and I agree the upward direction seems slightly more probable)
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Post by joel90069 on Aug 28, 2020 12:02:40 GMT -8
What was that close???
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 28, 2020 12:08:19 GMT -8
High volume, and high volatility! Have a great weekend everyone
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Aug 28, 2020 13:47:41 GMT -8
As non-trading long, I will continue to observe from the sidelines. So I am interested to hear from the traders in the group their opinions about how they will be playing the next couple of weeks. Will there be an expectation of a general rush to buy at AAPL post-split prices and bets on a resultant quick pop? Or will there be an expectation that folks will be eager to lock in their profits with a quick sell-off, so that shorting the stock would be the strategy.
I apologize in advance if these thoughts are completely ignorant and off-base, but one must ask questions in order to learn.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 28, 2020 16:22:00 GMT -8
High volume, and high volatility! Have a great weekend everyone An awful lot of calls died today. RIP. That last 10 minutes was market maker shenanigans letting call buyers know who's boss. Alas, I am bullish for Monday!
Edit: Speaking of options: 8/3 BOT 10 AAPL 9/18 440/445 @ $2.15 8/28 STC 10 AAPL 9/18 440/445 @ $4.40 Left the $600 on the table because I wanted the buying power for other goodies. Holding some 9/4 spreads through the weekend.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 29, 2020 6:13:02 GMT -8
As non-trading long, I will continue to observe from the sidelines. So I am interested to hear from the traders in the group their opinions about how they will be playing the next couple of weeks. Will there be an expectation of a general rush to buy at AAPL post-split prices and bets on a resultant quick pop? Or will there be an expectation that folks will be eager to lock in their profits with a quick sell-off, so that shorting the stock would be the strategy. I apologize in advance if these thoughts are completely ignorant and off-base, but one must ask questions in order to learn. If anyone knew that, with a very high certainty, they'd be holding their winning lottery ticket. What we do know is that in the longer term, Apple looks to be well positioned. In the shorter term, with iPhone 12's coming out and so that excitement brewing, things look positive. The affect of the psychology around massive ups and downs, tied in with the recent uniqueness of a split, is tough to directionalize with any precision. Especially as JD points out, that the big boys still have plenty of power to move the market. (EDIT: It's actually not that different from a product release or event, where most of the info is known before the event. Thus, there's a lead up, but often not too much afterwards. Buy the rumor, sell the news? There is no "one size fits all" path, but with that analogy and with the RSI being higher, in normal times I could see a cooling off period of going down a little or staying flat for a bit. It's the timing of the iPhone 12 that throws things for a loop, making it seem like on a week over week basis, there's not much of a reason for AAPL to go down, and instead probably favors a slight increase. On the minute by minute or hour by hour timeframe, it's anyone's guess. I'd expect volatility and volume, especially in the first half of Monday. But by the end of the week or week + a day to cancel out weekly options, my guess is AAPL will be at the $500 equivalent, or higher. That said, I have no idea what odds there are of that, of $500+ at the close on Tuesday the 8th.) I don't know. Right now seems frothy to me, but that doesn't mean it's a peak, just that things are a little less solid. Like standing out in the ocean waves, and having a bigger one rush by that lifts you off the ground just a little. I'm ready to buy a little if the stock goes down a little, but I'm also perfectly happy to see AAPL continue to increase, though I will be writing covered calls a couple years out and taking advantage of that excitement out there. I still can't believe $25 for calls at $1k in just over 2 years. To me that seems like a lot to pay to capture potential gain beyond a double from here, that would take a 40% annualized rate to get to break-even. But someone is interested. And if it works out for them, I think both sides of the trade will be laughing all the way to the bank. $1k equivalent in 2 years just seems like one of those crazy analyst tales that is thrown out there to get hits. As the CA lottery jingle used to say, "Dream a little dream for me"
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