Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Sept 16, 2020 2:54:32 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,050
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Post by Dave on Sept 16, 2020 2:58:49 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,050
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Post by Dave on Sept 16, 2020 3:05:54 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 16, 2020 5:47:29 GMT -8
Something called “readwrite” has Why Apple’s iPhone Struggles in India and Why it Matters. Sounds pretty grim, but I have to believe that the recent moves of some manufacturing to the country is part of the strategy to elicit concessions/inducements from the government. Overcoming the pricing challenges could be more daunting.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 16, 2020 6:54:32 GMT -8
Something called “readwrite” has Why Apple’s iPhone Struggles in India and Why it Matters. Sounds pretty grim, but I have to believe that the recent moves of some manufacturing to the country is part of the strategy to elicit concessions/inducements from the government. Overcoming the pricing challenges could be more daunting. I can't find the articles, but IIRC Apple really wanted to jam the refurbished iPhones into India (low ASP but large margins), but their government told Apple to pound sand until they can bring manufacturing into India. And Tim has been working on that as both a quid pro quo, and of course for supply chain redundancy. This is a tightrope Tim has to walk, because China demands the same thing (recall how long it took Apple to get certified for China Mobile, et al). One would have to guess that Tim told China that India iPhones are a new market and only domestically-sold phones will be made there, so zero loss of manufacturing for PRC. Apple Says New iPhone SE is Assembled in India for Local CustomersSee also, iPhone makers are said among winners in $6.6 billion India planThat readwrite writer makes the mistake of judging a long term relationship by the first date. Kind of like the dummies who have already declared Tom Brady washed up. Once Apple (and its suppliers) have tens of thousands of Indian workers, they will be in a much different bargaining position. As far as Indians liking iPhones, well, everyone else does, so I'm not worried about that.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 16, 2020 7:33:44 GMT -8
SPY trying to break out of its recent range at 342, while AAPL is threatening to break lower at 114. Hopefully a SPY rebound saves AAPL this time.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 16, 2020 9:42:02 GMT -8
I expected a bit of a breather for AAPL after the split, especially considering the incredible run-up before. With the Fall product announcements and the emergence of 5G (although I am still expecting some transition troubles, both from the telecom deployments and some disgruntlement because of reality not immediately matching expectations), I’m hoping for a solid holiday season to be reflected in the stock price. Let’s see what the reaction is to next month’s announcements.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 16, 2020 9:45:30 GMT -8
While trying not to get political about it, recent articles are pointing to potential changes in US Taxes. Personally, I'm not much worried about a potential change from 37% to 39.6%, but if long term capital gains rates disappeared and so things that used to be taxed at 0% to 23.6% instead were taxed at up to 39.6%, that would be a huge change. Likewise, for someone at a different point in their life and estate planning, the possibility of getting rid of a stepped up basis would be huge. Things change. Small changes make a difference over time. But big changes worry people a lot more. OTOH, a financial planner in the article had this to say: www.marketwatch.com/story/some-wealthy-americans-are-prepping-their-finances-for-a-possible-joe-biden-presidency-this-is-all-going-up-and-you-may-never-see-it-as-good-as-it-is-now-2020-09-16?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahooStill, it's good to be aware of potential changes, and have a plan. I could be looking at a sell and buyback to cash out some of our LT gains. But I say that as one who sold some options early at the last tax increase, if I remember right when the previous decreases automatically phased out a couple years into the next presidential term.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 16, 2020 10:01:39 GMT -8
I expected a bit of a breather for AAPL after the split, especially considering the incredible run-up before. With the Fall product announcements and the emergence of 5G (although I am still expecting some transition troubles, both from the telecom deployments and some disgruntlement because of reality not immediately matching expectations), I’m hoping for a solid holiday season to be reflected in the stock price. Let’s see what the reaction is to next month’s announcements. Is the 5G thing (limited 5G coverage, limited speed) as much of an issue now that competitors have had them out for a year? It seems like we were having these wall of worry discussions a year ago, and yet it's seemed to turn into a non-issue. Some people want it for the speed now. Some people want it for future proofing. And some don't care much. Personally, I'd take a 4G version over 5G if it was cheaper and/or had lower power requirements (ie longer battery life). At the same time, Apple's direction for the past 20 years doesn't make me expect to have that choice, unless going with an old or SE version.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 16, 2020 10:19:55 GMT -8
Whatever the Fed did, the market seems to be happy about it so far...
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 16, 2020 10:29:29 GMT -8
Interest rates could stay near zero through the end of 2023!!! finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-fomc-monetary-policy-decision-september-2020-135645057.htmlThat's a long ways out, but it seems they may be cautiously pessimistic. Elsewhere in the article: The dot chart at the end of the article does show a few expecting interest rates to rise a little in 2023. But, their job is to get things moving more than they currently are, so keeping things low is a way to get things moving that way, to overcome other hold ups. And sometimes it's as much a psychological game, setting that long term plan that they can always change later. I'm hoping our power company has the same mindset, after just getting an announcement to expect the power to be out, proactively, for 11 hours starting at 7am on Friday. This while we are having our worst smoke day so far, but the flush of fresh air into the SF Bay gives us hope. Time to test out the big Honda generator that we haven't had to use in our decade at this house. But on the upside, if they can get the shutdown to be only 6 hours, they've set it up to be a win. Nature needs to cooperate, but "underestimate, over deliver" has its place.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 16, 2020 10:53:50 GMT -8
The Fed is the Wizard of Oz now. They can act like they are doing something, but the US is so in debt now, and markets are so dependent on their current policy of low rates and propping up bonds and mortgages, I seriously doubt rates will ever go up.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 16, 2020 11:50:32 GMT -8
4aapl said:
You may be correct. I’d offer...
. iPhone owners generally have higher expectations, . iPhone owners have been waiting to reap the promised benefits . iPhone owners generally will be paying a higher price for their devices
On the other hand, the telecom support environment will be a year more advanced
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 16, 2020 12:06:08 GMT -8
Whatever the Fed did, the market seems to be happy about it so far... Ugly close. Rejected at support levels. More down ahead?
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 16, 2020 12:37:10 GMT -8
Whatever the Fed did, the market seems to be happy about it so far... Ugly close. Rejected at support levels. More down ahead? It's just pennies, but currently finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL?p=AAPL has the daily low at 112.14, the close at 112.13, and the daily chart shows 112.12. I guess that means AAPL closed at the low? In a vacuum, I expected AAPL to be off to the races at this part of the year. But it's not. The question now is what will be the next catalyst, and how much will it move things? watch/iPad demand should help but not be a major stock factor. What about the lead up to the iPhone announcement, or demand guesses once it becomes available? And then earnings around the end of Oct, the lead up to that and then actual numbers. It's hard to guess at all of that, but I'd like to see some regrouping this week, maybe with one more shot down to $110, and then a slow but solid climb to $120-125 over the coming week or two. I have no probability guesses on that. With volatility down option prices are down a lot. Soon might be the time to pick up something a little bullish, but I don't think I'll bother buying back any of my covered calls that would take a moonshot. What a difference a couple weeks can make in the stock, even if little to nothing has changed in the underlying company.
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Post by playultimate on Sept 16, 2020 12:48:20 GMT -8
Whatever the Fed did, the market seems to be happy about it so far... Ugly close. Rejected at support levels. More down ahead? Daily chart looking like the right shoulder of a H-S pattern. Might go down to under $100. I would not have thought that two weeks ago.
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Post by duckpins on Sept 16, 2020 13:53:18 GMT -8
The Apple bundles miss the mark IMHO. If they were compelling the stock would have been given a boost. The new fitness bundle looks like a bunch of videos of workouts? And the other combos to save 5 dollars are not really exciting. Anyone else have a thought? Are you excited by getting the Arcade free? Reminds me of 2012 when Cook missed the move to large phones.
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crispin
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KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
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Post by crispin on Sept 16, 2020 14:53:47 GMT -8
The Apple bundles miss the mark IMHO. If they were compelling the stock would have been given a boost. The new fitness bundle looks like a bunch of videos of workouts? And the other combos to save 5 dollars are not really exciting. Anyone else have a thought? Are you excited by getting the Arcade free? Reminds me of 2012 when Cook missed the move to large phones. I have to disagree. I’ll be signing up for the premiere bundle on day one. Family Music and 2TB of iCloud storage already take me to $25 a month, so for another measly $5 we’ll get News, TV, Arcade, and Fitness. It’s an absolute no-brainer. With Fitness a lot of the value will be determined by the content, so I think we need to withhold judgement for the time being, but I’m going to assume it’ll be produced to a high standard and kept fresh with frequent updates. If that’s the case, I have at least two family members who will be thrilled with it. Judging by the tech blogs I follow, I think I’m not alone in finding this a compelling value proposition.
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Post by duckpins on Sept 16, 2020 15:15:58 GMT -8
have to disagree. I’ll be signing up for the premiere bundle on day one. Family Music and 2TB of iCloud storage already take me to $25 a month, so for another measly $5 we’ll get News, TV, Arcade, and Fitness. It’s an absolute no-brainer. With Fitness a lot of the value will be determined by the content, so I think we need to withhold judgement for the time being, but I’m going to assume it’ll be produced to a high standard and kept fresh with frequent updates. If that’s the case, I have at least two family members who will be thrilled with it."
What can you save on the Apple One bundle as an Individual?
So, the Apple One Individual plan costs $14.95 per month. For that price, you get Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, and 50 GB of iCloud storage. Bought separately, those services add up to $20.96 per month.
The Apple One Individual plan is priced at $14.95, so you save about $6.
You don't even get Apple News? Not everyone is a family.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 16, 2020 17:48:06 GMT -8
Soooo...how many AFB’ers have had direct experience with 5G? Obviously, it could not have been with your iPhone, but perhaps you have a secondary device of one kind or another. Which 5G flavor was it?
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
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Post by crispin on Sept 16, 2020 17:53:37 GMT -8
Obviously the line-up has been cunningly designed by the evil geniuses at Apple to push you in the direction of the Premiere bundle . Which is something I think they’ll be very successful at. Personally I don’t find the Individual bundle to be very tempting, but I’m not naive enough to think Apple hasn’t carefully considered every possible combo of services and how it aligns with their user base. Even if the numbers don’t add up for you, I think the uptake by many others will be significant. have to disagree. I’ll be signing up for the premiere bundle on day one. Family Music and 2TB of iCloud storage already take me to $25 a month, so for another measly $5 we’ll get News, TV, Arcade, and Fitness. It’s an absolute no-brainer. With Fitness a lot of the value will be determined by the content, so I think we need to withhold judgement for the time being, but I’m going to assume it’ll be produced to a high standard and kept fresh with frequent updates. If that’s the case, I have at least two family members who will be thrilled with it." What can you save on the Apple One bundle as an Individual? So, the Apple One Individual plan costs $14.95 per month. For that price, you get Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, and 50 GB of iCloud storage. Bought separately, those services add up to $20.96 per month. The Apple One Individual plan is priced at $14.95, so you save about $6. You don't even get Apple News? Not everyone is a family.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 16, 2020 18:01:30 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Sept 17, 2020 10:05:14 GMT -8
Are you naive enough to think the evil geniuses considered every aspect of the size of the phone in 2012? If they made a less expensive phone in the form of the original it would be very popular. Just because you have power and money does not mean that you are smart.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 17, 2020 10:29:15 GMT -8
Are you naive enough to think the evil geniuses considered every aspect of the size of the phone in 2012? If they made a less expensive phone in the form of the original it would be very popular. Just because you have power and money does not mean that you are smart. Everyone makes mistakes, at least occasionally. My recollection is that Steve really pushed the one-hand use concept, of it fitting in your hand and even being able to use a finger on it. Fablets were so laughable, at first. At some size they still are, as seeing someone holding up a full sized iPad at a kids performance, or at Disneyland, seems outrageous. The trick is to not get too settled on your assumptions, and keep an open mind on the trends. If people really like something that wasn't your target, pivot. Heck, the same thing happens with stocks. "Don't fight the tape". Likewise, one must realize when they are not the target audience. I was brought up to save my money and be careful with it, thus I am not going out and constantly buying the latest and greatest even if I can now easily afford it. There are times that I wish Apple would price things differently, or aim a little more at upgradability instead of the ultimate thinnest and lightest product. But, as a shareholder I realize that they mostly do a great job at aiming their product, and that they are doing very well even if not every product and pricing it to my liking. And there are sometimes, like switching the iPod from firewire to USB, moving from a mechanical click wheel, and changing the functionality of the middle button, where it might not sit well with the current users/customers, but in the long run it could very well be the right move. That's a great thing about Apple. They are looking at the long game. Thanks Apple
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crispin
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KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
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Post by crispin on Sept 17, 2020 12:51:31 GMT -8
[ quote author=" duckpins" source="/post/116915/thread" timestamp="1600365914"]Are you naive enough to think the evil geniuses considered every aspect of the size of the phone in 2012? If they made a less expensive phone in the form of the original it would be very popular. Just because you have power and money does not mean that you are smart. [/quote] If you’re changing the question to “does Apple ever make mistakes?”, then yeah, of course they do. And in hindsight it’s much easier to identify some possible examples. But when it comes to the bundles, I personally don’t believe they’ve made a mistake. Should it turn out otherwise, it’s a hell of a lot easier for them to course-correct on a services bundle than anything involving hardware anyway. If Apple determines they’re unhappy with response to the bundles, you can bet they’ll make an adjustment. The pudding, that’s where the proof is.
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