Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Sept 18, 2020 2:25:39 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Sept 18, 2020 2:27:36 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Sept 18, 2020 3:11:34 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 18, 2020 5:42:26 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 18, 2020 6:39:41 GMT -8
The weekly numbers for AAPL actually look pretty small, and that's before taking into account the split. In normal times I wouldn't expect it to be a big driver. I haven't looked at max pain for a long time, but it's curious to me that it says $110, whereas $112.5 has much bigger numbers. i guess it must be due to those calls down at 92.5. www.maximum-pain.com/options/aaplIt doesn't matter much. AAPL will eventually climb, though its short term enthusiasm has been reset. Analysts are now raising their targets, but not seeing the followthrough on the daily stock price moved. That's got to be tough. But solidifying the base here, 20% off the highs, helps make future runs happen. The question is when those will happen, and if they will wait to be data driven (quarterly results, or even quarterly results with new iPhone numbers in them) or if the stock will advance in anticipation of the actual data, as it normally does when investors are bullish.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 18, 2020 6:48:37 GMT -8
It's silly to have an exact number be "max pain" when options are spread at 1.25 increments. Pain range makes more sense.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Sept 18, 2020 8:12:49 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Sept 18, 2020 8:15:47 GMT -8
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Post by therealmercel on Sept 18, 2020 8:35:55 GMT -8
Looking for AAPL to land near Runway 110 at close.
I have a hard time believing people will rush to market exits in order to earn .6% in money market accounts, especially headed into an election w/iPhone event + earnings on deck. There shouldn't be that much fear our there, even with the continuance of COVID's influence on the economy.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 18, 2020 9:04:22 GMT -8
There's the possibility that the whole run from March lows was a premature bounce on hope that there would be a quick solution and turnaround with the virus. Combined with hope, there was huge amounts of fiscal stimulus from Congress and money from the Fed.
The Fed money is still a factor, but the money from Congress is gone and it doesn't look like there's more coming. The virus situation (at least in the US) doesn't seem to be improving either. So the optimism has faded from the market.
Where it goes is anyone's guess but it's hard to see it rocketing back to highs anytime soon.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 18, 2020 10:35:46 GMT -8
Assuming it closes below 112, this would be the first time we’ve had 3 down weeks in a row since May 2019.
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Post by duckpins on Sept 18, 2020 11:14:15 GMT -8
Apple had a move down 38.2%, next fibonacci number is 50 percent which takes it to the large gap in the 90's. March low was 52+. That would be 100 percent of the move.
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Post by duckpins on Sept 18, 2020 11:35:13 GMT -8
"It's silly to have an exact number be "max pain" when options are spread at 1.25 increments. Pain range makes more sense." To me looks like the put pain is going to be out of the money so most puts expire at 0, 107+ for puts, the calls at 110 will also be worthless. Interesting maybe 2 pains are needed one put and another call depending on volume of same.
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Post by eastbaybob on Sept 18, 2020 12:00:02 GMT -8
I am really disappointed with the bundles being offered. We pay $15 for Apple Music and right now nothing for Apple TV+ but I will continue and pay $5 when the free trial ends. We were paying $10 for News+ but I just cancelled yesterday as it's too hard for me to use because the font is too small. I have searched how to raise the font for News but I don't think its possible. We pay $6 for iCloud. We will not use Arcade, I doubt if anyone will use the exercise app. Raising iCloud to 2 terabytes makes sense for us so that's the $30. No savings for me if I am not going to use Arcade, Exercise, or News. Guess it is a big savings if you use all the features but I would prefer more options. Another pet peeve I have is that I pay $15 a month for Apple Music but it does not offer hi res music like Amazon, Tidal and Qobuz. I pay $15 a month for Qobuz and I can't drop Apple Music as the rest of the family uses it. Why can't Apple offer this? For those of you who say it's good enough, its not good enough for me. Thanks to Tim Cook and the dividends, I have a very high end home theater system and Qobuz sounds amazing on it
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Post by duckpins on Sept 18, 2020 12:01:12 GMT -8
The volume in the final five minutes was high. 16000 shares at the bid? Over and over. I have never seen that many large blocks on level II quotes.
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Post by duckpins on Sept 18, 2020 12:08:50 GMT -8
I am really disappointed with the bundles being offered. We pay $15 for Apple Music and right now nothing for Apple TV+ but I will continue and pay $5 when the free trial ends. We were paying $10 for News+ but I just cancelled yesterday as it's too hard for me to use because the font is too small. I have searched how to raise the font for News but I don't think its possible. We pay $6 for iCloud. We will not use Arcade, I doubt if anyone will use the exercise app. Raising iCloud to 2 terabytes makes sense for us so that's the $30. No savings for me if I am not going to use Arcade, Exercise, or News. Guess it is a big savings if you use all the features but I would prefer more options. Another pet peeve I have is that I pay $15 a month for Apple Music but it does not offer hi res music like Amazon, Tidal and Qobuz. I pay $15 a month for Qobuz and I can't drop Apple Music as the rest of the family uses it. Why can't Apple offer this? For those of you who say it's good enough, its not good enough for me. Thanks to Tim Cook and the dividends, I have a very high end home theater system and Qobuz sounds amazing on it Agree with you/ As I said this is a huge miss reminiscent of 2012. We will see if the stock continues down. Jobs ws an audiophile with a massive LP collection. I am loosing my hearing so can't comment on digital quality but my memory is the LP's sounded lots better, thicker or with more life if you can understand that. At any rate I don't need music-my classical collection and 60s and 70s rock is not expanding, just would like the magazines for late night reading and some storage plus the TV if Apple can mange to get a way to play it on an LG TV. The Arcade strikes me as for a limited population and the fitness is odd as you can get a video of anything on youtube? For free. I have a tai chi dvd I bought 20 years ago I still use. I see Cook as stubborn, should have bought Netflix and Sirius radio and Pandora. Why screw around? Everyone loved Pandora.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 18, 2020 12:57:27 GMT -8
Agree with you/ As I said this is a huge miss reminiscent of 2012. We will see if the stock continues down. Jobs ws an audiophile with a massive LP collection. I am loosing my hearing so can't comment on digital quality but my memory is the LP's sounded lots better, thicker or with more life if you can understand that. At any rate I don't need music-my classical ollection and 60s and 70s rock is not expanding, just would like the magazines for late night reading and some storage plus the TV if Apple can mange to get a way to play it on an LG TV. The Arcade strikes me as for a limited population and the fitness is odd as you can get a video of anything on youtube? For free. I have a tai chi dvd I bought 20 years ago I still use. I see Cook as stubborn, should have bought Netflix and Sirius radio and Pandora. Why screw around? Everyone loved Pandora. With all due respect, you are living in the past. My guess is that we are of a similar age. I digitized all of the LPs I cared about, or replaced them with CDs. I gave up on cassettes early due to their crappy sound, and replaced the ones I missed with digital, CDs or downloads. I have hundreds of digitized albums. That’s the world today; folks are used to the mobility of digital devices. Play your music at home, or in your car, or walking down the street. Not every context is audiophile quality, but it beats silence.
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Post by therealmercel on Sept 18, 2020 14:02:12 GMT -8
Looking for AAPL to land near Runway 110 at close. I have a hard time believing people will rush to market exits in order to earn .6% in money market accounts, especially headed into an election w/iPhone event + earnings on deck. There shouldn't be that much fear our there, even with the continuance of COVID's influence on the economy. Well, this didn't age well. Overall market is driving the bus on 3 wheels, 2 of them flat. This weekend, a Tic Tok and WeChat deals get done (I mean, we know why, right?) and Apple's iPhone event and earnings are on deck - hopefully in that order.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 18, 2020 15:06:30 GMT -8
Total nonsense that we are at 2000 PE levels, let alone 2009: www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratioAnd yeah that last 10 minutes the market makers were trying to tank Apple and TSLA. My 403/405 TSLA’s paid off today. A small realized moral victory in a week of dreadful unrealized pain. 📉😵
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Post by longsince98 on Sept 18, 2020 15:07:28 GMT -8
Agree with you/ As I said this is a huge miss reminiscent of 2012. We will see if the stock continues down. Jobs ws an audiophile with a massive LP collection. I am loosing my hearing so can't comment on digital quality but my memory is the LP's sounded lots better, thicker or with more life if you can understand that. At any rate I don't need music-my classical ollection and 60s and 70s rock is not expanding, just would like the magazines for late night reading and some storage plus the TV if Apple can mange to get a way to play it on an LG TV. The Arcade strikes me as for a limited population and the fitness is odd as you can get a video of anything on youtube? For free. I have a tai chi dvd I bought 20 years ago I still use. I see Cook as stubborn, should have bought Netflix and Sirius radio and Pandora. Why screw around? Everyone loved Pandora. With all due respect, you are living in the past. Amen. I don’t mean this as an attack, but I’ve noticed a series of posts that are quite out of touch, so duckpins with respect I think you should just enjoy the ride.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 18, 2020 16:23:27 GMT -8
There's the possibility that the whole run from March lows was a premature bounce on hope that there would be a quick solution and turnaround with the virus. Combined with hope, there was huge amounts of fiscal stimulus from Congress and money from the Fed. The Fed money is still a factor, but the money from Congress is gone and it doesn't look like there's more coming. The virus situation (at least in the US) doesn't seem to be improving either. So the optimism has faded from the market. Where it goes is anyone's guess but it's hard to see it rocketing back to highs anytime soon. The question is how much of this bounce and earnings with AAPL and other companies that have done well in this climate is due to money being thrown around. There are certain companies and sectors that are doing amazing. And it's counterintuitive at least at first that any company is doing outstanding, but it looks like it comes down to affordable luxuries and condensed needs for those that still have a decent income coming in, while they drop off certain expenditures (foreign trips). That's a generalization and may or may not be true, but more and more things seem to jive with that, including a video that new car purchases were doing amazing. And houses, though they have low interest rates going for them too. (FWIW, "Lords of Finance" says in 1928 interest rates were at 4%, and then they dropped them to 3.5% for 6 months, which helped feed the peaks US stockmarket. I didn't know offhand that interest rates had been that low then) Sometimes it's fun to get back to the basics. I finished up a rock path staircase this afternoon, mainly using huge 300 to 600lbs rocks. If this were out on a trail, it would be there for the next 100+ years. Outside of a house, it will be there until a snowplow nudges it, or some future owner tears down the house and expands. Like Apple, it will be around a while, and it's great to see solid work and planning pay off, even if it takes a lot longer than just throwing down something.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Sept 19, 2020 2:36:24 GMT -8
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Post by therealmercel on Sept 19, 2020 14:21:42 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Sept 21, 2020 10:24:10 GMT -8
Agree with you/ As I said this is a huge miss reminiscent of 2012. We will see if the stock continues down. Jobs ws an audiophile with a massive LP collection. I am loosing my hearing so can't comment on digital quality but my memory is the LP's sounded lots better, thicker or with more life if you can understand that. At any rate I don't need music-my classical ollection and 60s and 70s rock is not expanding, just would like the magazines for late night reading and some storage plus the TV if Apple can mange to get a way to play it on an LG TV. The Arcade strikes me as for a limited population and the fitness is odd as you can get a video of anything on youtube? For free. I have a tai chi dvd I bought 20 years ago I still use. I see Cook as stubborn, should have bought Netflix and Sirius radio and Pandora. Why screw around? Everyone loved Pandora. With all due respect, you are living in the past. My guess is that we are of a similar age. I digitized all of the LPs I cared about, or replaced them with CDs. I gave up on cassettes early due to their crappy sound, and replaced the ones I missed with digital, CDs or downloads. I have hundreds of digitized albums. That’s the world today; folks are used to the mobility of digital devices. Play your music at home, or in your car, or walking down the street. Not every context is audiophile quality, but it beats silence. You did not respond to what I posted. My point is the bundles missed the mark and that Apple missed opportunities in the past. The iPod was one of Jobs' great ideas. Of course people love mobile music despite the quality. But they could have added Pandora or Sirus radio to that or the iPhone subsequently with ease and without financial risk.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 21, 2020 11:33:25 GMT -8
With all due respect, you are living in the past. My guess is that we are of a similar age. I digitized all of the LPs I cared about, or replaced them with CDs. I gave up on cassettes early due to their crappy sound, and replaced the ones I missed with digital, CDs or downloads. I have hundreds of digitized albums. That’s the world today; folks are used to the mobility of digital devices. Play your music at home, or in your car, or walking down the street. Not every context is audiophile quality, but it beats silence. You did not respond to what I posted. My point is the bundles missed the mark and that Apple missed opportunities in the past. The iPod was one of Jobs' great ideas. Of course people love mobile music despite the quality. But they could have added Pandora or Sirus radio to that or the iPhone subsequently with ease and without financial risk. My point was that taste is personal. I have no interest in “bundles” or streaming services that may or may not provide music that I like. My new music comes from recommendations from friends or new releases from artists I like. Sometimes I’m in the mood for Coltrane, sometimes for Beethoven, sometimes for Elvis Costello. I do not feel that I can judge what does or does not appeal to others. If the bundles prove not to be enticing to enough consumers, then undoubtedly Apple will make some changes. Perhaps we should see what happens over the next few months, rather than criticizing based on our own likes or prejudices.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 21, 2020 11:40:08 GMT -8
You did not respond to what I posted. My point is the bundles missed the mark and that Apple missed opportunities in the past. The iPod was one of Jobs' great ideas. Of course people love mobile music despite the quality. But they could have added Pandora or Sirus radio to that or the iPhone subsequently with ease and without financial risk. My point was that taste is personal. I have no interest in “bundles” or streaming services that may or may not provide music that I like. My new music comes from recommendations from friends or new releases from artists I like. Sometimes I’m in the mood for Coltrane, sometimes for Beethoven, sometimes for Elvis Costello. I do not feel that I can judge what does or does not appeal to others. If the bundles prove not to be enticing to enough consumers, then undoubtedly Apple will make some changes. Perhaps we should see what happens over the next few months, rather than criticizing based on our own likes or prejudices. Ya, these “I am an anachronism” posts that are a personal opinion that invalidates what Apple does or doesn’t do, are completely irrelevant in my opinion.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Sept 21, 2020 17:31:48 GMT -8
Sometimes it's fun to get back to the basics. I finished up a rock path staircase this afternoon, mainly using huge 300 to 600lbs rocks. If this were out on a trail, it would be there for the next 100+ years. Outside of a house, it will be there until a snowplow nudges it, or some future owner tears down the house and expands. You'd be surprised by the power of erosion. I've seen 10,000+ lb stones moved significant distances by relatively small streams of water flowing near them. Don't let the snowplow near them! And I agree, the species called "remodeler" or "contractor" are the most powerful of all. I've seen a beautiful 1800-something home totally demolished by one of them in just a few hours. Luckily the heartwood single piece bannister was salvaged just before they began.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 21, 2020 21:39:55 GMT -8
Sometimes it's fun to get back to the basics. I finished up a rock path staircase this afternoon, mainly using huge 300 to 600lbs rocks. If this were out on a trail, it would be there for the next 100+ years. Outside of a house, it will be there until a snowplow nudges it, or some future owner tears down the house and expands. You'd be surprised by the power of erosion. I've seen 10,000+ lb stones moved significant distances by relatively small streams of water flowing near them. Don't let the snowplow near them! And I agree, the species called "remodeler" or "contractor" are the most powerful of all. I've seen a beautiful 1800-something home totally demolished by one of them in just a few hours. Luckily the heartwood single piece bannister was salvaged just before they began. Yep, water in all forms is an issue. The road keeps it away from that side of the driveway, and normally the other side too. But, we recently had a huge quick downpour, and the drain on the other side of the street clogged. The neighbors said the water got 2+ feet deep, and that must have been when it escaped out our side of the street. It took a couple yards of my 3/4" rock (part of BMPs, generally to get water from your yard into the ground and not have it leave your yard) up to 200 yards down the hill. Crazy! But yes, with the big rocks on a slope and with a lot of snow (10+ feet of condensed snow is common, up to the roof rated limit of 250 lbs/ft^2), they will take a beating. Still, they are dug in and locked in fairly well. But some added rock near the edges to prevent undercutting should help. I built a creek crossing at about the same 7500' elevation with a 600-800 lbs rock a few years back, and even with it getting plugged up and having a heavy spring flow diverted by it down the trail, it held. If it's locked in well, it can hold up. But in the long run, nature will disassemble it no matter what. Good save on the old bannister. Some wood out there is amazing, and I hear it is much harder to get these days, and sometimes impossible.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Sept 23, 2020 11:56:11 GMT -8
You'd be surprised by the power of erosion. I've seen 10,000+ lb stones moved significant distances by relatively small streams of water flowing near them. Don't let the snowplow near them! And I agree, the species called "remodeler" or "contractor" are the most powerful of all. I've seen a beautiful 1800-something home totally demolished by one of them in just a few hours. Luckily the heartwood single piece bannister was salvaged just before they began. Yep, water in all forms is an issue. The road keeps it away from that side of the driveway, and normally the other side too. But, we recently had a huge quick downpour, and the drain on the other side of the street clogged. The neighbors said the water got 2+ feet deep, and that must have been when it escaped out our side of the street. It took a couple yards of my 3/4" rock (part of BMPs, generally to get water from your yard into the ground and not have it leave your yard) up to 200 yards down the hill. Crazy! But yes, with the big rocks on a slope and with a lot of snow (10+ feet of condensed snow is common, up to the roof rated limit of 250 lbs/ft^2), they will take a beating. Still, they are dug in and locked in fairly well. But some added rock near the edges to prevent undercutting should help. I built a creek crossing at about the same 7500' elevation with a 600-800 lbs rock a few years back, and even with it getting plugged up and having a heavy spring flow diverted by it down the trail, it held. If it's locked in well, it can hold up. But in the long run, nature will disassemble it no matter what. Good save on the old bannister. Some wood out there is amazing, and I hear it is much harder to get these days, and sometimes impossible. A lot of wood is impossible to get. Some types are even illegal. Mostly a concern of custom instrument makers as far as I am aware.
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