Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Oct 21, 2020 2:18:21 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Oct 21, 2020 2:25:24 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Oct 21, 2020 3:55:54 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Oct 21, 2020 4:00:55 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Oct 21, 2020 6:52:09 GMT -8
ASYMCO (Horace Dediu) had Apple’s Ecosystem+. It’s a month old but just as relevant now, if not more so. Even with the pandemic-crippled economy, the cornucopia of recent releases will drive holiday revenues while the future continues to be supercharged by the growth in subscriptions. Note the change in slope for revenues once the red triangles (subscriptions) appear.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 21, 2020 9:38:49 GMT -8
Apple, damned if it does, damned if it doesn't: If Apple launches it's own search engine (or music service, or apps), monopoly and tying, Sherman Act section 2 violation! If Apple partners with another company for a search engine, agreement in restraint of trade, Sherman Act section 1 violation! Amazing how other countries nurture their corporate success stories (in China's case, high party officials sit on their boards!). In America, we have circular firing squads as other countries laugh at us. ASYMCO (Horace Dediu) had Apple’s Ecosystem+. It’s a month old but just as relevant now, if not more so. Even with the pandemic-crippled economy, the cornucopia of recent releases will drive holiday revenues while the future continues to be supercharged by the growth in subscriptions. Note the change in slope for revenues once the red triangles (subscriptions) appear. Last paragraph of Horace's piece hits on something that has been driving me crazy when listening to analysts:
The bozo analysts on the financial news shows never talk about these intangibles that don't show up on 10-Q's. That "Mr Wonderful" Kevin O'Leary was blathering on the other day about how much he likes MSFT because of its fundamentals (vs Apple). Forgetting that questionable argument for a minute, I found myself yelling at him on my laptop (CNBC streams in my trading software), "Customers LOVE Apple! Who the hell LOVES Microsoft?" They had to close their retail stores FFS.
I don't know if the developer relationship is one of love or hate right now (with Epic trying to lead a revolution conspiracy against the golden goose), but it is certainly one of necessity!
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Post by aapltini on Oct 21, 2020 9:53:59 GMT -8
If the government takes away this cash stream, I say Apple finally pushes the “thermonuclear” button that Steve dreamt of. Create their own search or simply buy Duck, Duck, Go. If it’s worth billions to Google to secure the default search engine you can bet it’s worth many multiples more than that for Apple to monetize their own mobile dominance.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 21, 2020 11:02:31 GMT -8
If the government takes away this cash stream, I say Apple finally pushes the “thermonuclear” button that Steve dreamt of. Create their own search or simply buy Duck, Duck, Go. If it’s worth billions to Google to secure the default search engine you can bet it’s worth many multiples more than that for Apple to monetize their own mobile dominance. Yeah I've long felt the existential threat to Google is not the government, it's Apple. Tim is being practical for now, but I doubt he feels one iota of loyalty to those scumbags. It would be a loss of revs, but funny nonetheless if Apple sacrificed Google to the antitrust gods. This *might* be the perfect set up for Apple to get into the search biz, assuming they can do it right (and based on their very biased news feed, I really question that). I think Apple is still torn between the privacy thing and the ad (revenues) thing. It is hard to reconcile the two successfully. That's why Apple wants to mask the unique identifiers, and reset the whole paradigm. This is outside of my wheelhouse. Any developers here who use identifiers?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Oct 21, 2020 13:18:38 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Oct 21, 2020 13:46:15 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Oct 21, 2020 13:50:34 GMT -8
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Post by macprof on Oct 21, 2020 15:14:14 GMT -8
I suggest that anyone who is interested in a better understanding of the past and potential roles of companies like Google and Facebook in things like shaping opinions and behaviors, watch the Netflix doc The Social dilemma. It covers other aspects of monopolies that aren't normally considered. It covers a lot of other ground too, like what is causing increased anxiety in our kids and further pushing our divide in political dogmas. I highly recommend watching the whole thing, including the extra bits with the credits.
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