Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Oct 28, 2020 2:30:34 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Oct 28, 2020 2:42:08 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 28, 2020 7:49:54 GMT -8
Ugh!
Down days happen. Still, I prefer it when they are more of a stumble than a face plant, or when AAPL manages to do less bad when compared to the indexes.
This daily S&P returns chart was interesting, and something I like to file away even if not often trading in any way. Today is/was the highest average return. But there's a few that jibe with my memory, like the day after xmas.
(this was off of a cnn post. I don't follow this person, nor know anything about him....other than his birthday is today)
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 28, 2020 8:06:09 GMT -8
Apple is smart, so it acquires startups instead of buying publicly traded companies that would cost two magnitudes more. ***
I'm concerned about earnings, since there is no stimulus this time. Apple skews affluent, but of course not everyone who typically buys iPhones is pandemic-proof rich like all the stockholders on this board. Looking at PED's earnings smackdown, the ANALysts have modeled wild-assed guessed revs to be even YOY, with iPhones down but services and wearables up. That's a lot of $800 watches sold during a lockdown circular firing squad. I recently declined buying a 992 911 [REDACTED PURSUANT TO CAR TALK RULES] tightened the belt over the uncertainty of this earnings release and the election. Hold on to your hats. *** Former fellow AAPL stockholder: David Einhorn Says Tech Stocks Are in an ‘Enormous’ Bubble Fortunately Bloomberg gives some perspective, but most of the other Einhorn stories bury the lede, i.e., DROWNING HEDGIE IS SHORT TECH AND TALKING HIS BOOK TO OBLIVIOUS FINANCIAL MEDIA SIMPS. The SEC should seriously look at this talk-your-book-to-make-it-happen shit the hedgies pull.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 28, 2020 9:30:56 GMT -8
No need to steal what you can poach. All Apple needs to do is add 1 billion to its new-hire program to beef up its capabilities for on-device search such as for spotlight, App Store and say Apple news+(For Internet search). Both Google and Facebook are headquartered an easy commute to Cupertino. Start with diverting the low hanging fruit. When someone "searches" by typing in a URL, like CNN, take that "top hit" or "siri recommends" and grab the revenue for it. It's "search" but without much work. Personally I have no idea of the current revenue sharing or codebase used, so this might already be happening. But that, plus some "siri recommends" options, all before the Google or other search engine results, would be the easy way to get this moving. Likewise, a revenue sharing plan with the various search engines, and a simple "select your search engine", might get Apple around any agreements that look questionable. I think it already asks you to select your search engine on initial setup, but my browser prefs and bookmarks have been migrated for 25 years now. I know other browsers ask that, and I believe Safari does too when setting up a fresh system and possibly even with migration, but I can't say that with 100% certainty. Replicating search engines that have improved for years must be tough, just as Apple Maps has had bumps over the years when compared to Google Maps. The simple stuff is relatively easy. But there is plenty of room for complexity. OTOH, if Apple wanted in big time, they could afford a purchase and a push. But for now, if seems like the light move in that direction is the better way, a safety net while also potentially shifting some income to be more direct. And it looks like Apple is doing just that: www.businessinsider.com/apple-now-shows-its-own-search-results-threatening-google-ios14-2020-10(it's on the iPhone stock apps AAPL news too) The "nice version" of this is if you want to play nice with your frenemy, do it when they are getting some attention from the DOJ. You slip in and get what you want (more income and control), and it helps them out of a bind (hey look DOJ, we have competition, we're not a monopoly that is abusing our power) while also helping minimize the DOJ looking into you ((DOJ)Hmmm, if we can't manage to get our choice of these 4, maybe we should save face and not attempt the next one at this time).
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 28, 2020 10:27:26 GMT -8
BTD
Nothing too exciting. Just adding a little S&P, though VOO, while it was down nearly 3%. Nothing too big....just adding on the order of 1%, getting my borrowing up a tiny bit which also brings my rate down.
Obviously there are multiple things going on at the moment, and clarity isn't great in the shorter term. Looking some months or years out, things look fine, for AAPL and the market. As was pointed out, and we already knew, many techs had a relative peak over a month and a half ago. And as has been pointed out here for over a week, COVID numbers are up in the US to just above the summer peak (incidentally when no full lockdowns were ordered, though some individual business areas were closed. I wouldn't want to be a bar owner this year, with or without food service).
I still remember the relative peak on election day nearly 12 years ago, mainly because I was trying to see if I could gather cash to make a foreclosure purchase that week. I was tapped out, and banks were little help, though the idea of taking a loan out from a retirement plan (this was for a 1-2 month need) was novel. No biggie in retrospect, but that year that day was a relative peak.
There's always something. Ups and downs, but like the population, university tuition, and ski lift tickets, it mostly averages up over time.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 28, 2020 11:40:21 GMT -8
In reading a story over at Barrons about what some are doing or thinking about changing gift and estate exemption amounts and tax rates, a quoted comment from a wealth strategist got me to finally open up Numbers and make the simple spreadsheet. A tax rate jump from 23.6% to 39.6% seems huge, and it is. While those numbers thrown around only apply to a few people that have done very well, the concept of higher taxes is a general one, and this 68% increase is large enough to be a good generalization of a big potential increase. (FWIW, we're doing a great job of keeping most politics out of the daily thread. Let's keep that up!) I used the example they gave of a $20M portfolio with $10M of gains, which fit with their well-off estate story. Using the tax rates and a 10% annualized return, and assuming after this sell/rebuy that no future sales were made until the end, I looked to see how things would be in 15 years. And it turned out that the account that didn't sell anything until 15 years from now was ahead by almost 6%. But then I looked at it year by year, and found that the breakeven using these assumptions was about 8 years. If the account was liquidated before then, the one that paid taxes and reset its basis did better when looking at the post-tax final valuation. This all doesn't matter too much, but it does help remind that dealing with absolutes is often not a complete picture. I have/will tax out part of my portfolio, partially for diversification reasons, but also partially for taxes. But running through the numbers (in our case, our tax basis ratio is lower, and our expected AAPL return is a little higher), it reminds me that it's often best to look at smaller percentages. Like I did before the last tax, I'll choose to pay taxes at the lower rate on some extra portion. But, this gets me looking at 10-25%, instead of ~50%, even when talking about that big of a potential change. (The article is at the following link, and though the title mentioned Biden, it's important to remember that some of these things change no matter what, just as the tax rates did last time, and the current exemptions will in 2025 unless changed. Barrons seems to let you through the paywall if you use the link in the yahoo finance link finance.yahoo.com/m/e84e1d52-f4e8-32ef-9de3-ea6f15636442/a-biden-presidency-could.html ) (EDIT: using actual numbers, along with various 12-20% return modeling, I get 5-7 years, which multiplies hugely in distant years. The short of it is it's always great to make a pseudo IRA, by never paying taxes in the middle years especially if that's a long time period. If considering cashing out just for tax reasons, run your own numbers and see. There are variables, which vary. And there are other choices and unknowns. But a little work helps give you a situation, blended or not, that works for you. Likewise, it might put your mind at ease, or let you dream a little dream. As the note in a $12M jet review we read last night when looking up details on a friend's super-fast prop plane, "at this level the person buying this jet is not normally the person flying it". Big rate of return estimates multiply hugely, and pretty soon you get a Ponzi looking value. Dream big, but stay grounded!)
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 28, 2020 12:20:52 GMT -8
Even Walmart thinks it's going to be a good holiday season. One could say it's talking it's book, but the premise looks similar to Apple in that some spending areas (gas, vacations) are down sizably, so while some are still hurting, others have a larger percentage left to spend and are seeking ways to feel normal even if things aren't normal. Wells Fargo economists agree. finance.yahoo.com/news/record-holiday-shopping-season-coming-morning-brief-101022205.html
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Oct 28, 2020 17:33:59 GMT -8
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