Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 18, 2020 2:39:05 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 18, 2020 2:50:27 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 18, 2020 3:03:38 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 18, 2020 3:07:51 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 18, 2020 3:10:03 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Nov 18, 2020 5:48:29 GMT -8
Same old Robert I see. This ridiculous overinflated sense of importance is one of the reasons I left Braeburn. Ya, a bunch of randos on the Internet are going to transform the world. Good one.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 18, 2020 6:00:55 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Nov 18, 2020 6:37:30 GMT -8
Gruber on the M1 MacBook ProQuick take - he is very impressed. I found his explanation of memory management particularly interesting. His conclusion:
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Post by Lstream on Nov 18, 2020 9:38:19 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 18, 2020 10:36:02 GMT -8
Somewhere, some bright guy on wall street has figured out what the impact of the TSLA re-balancing will be on the other stocks in the S&P 500 including Apple. He probably has also figured out how much of it has already been done. If he is proud enough to publish his work and anyone here has seen it, how about a link, please?
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 18, 2020 10:48:46 GMT -8
I'm always somewhat surprised when I see glowing articles like this about Apple...and then discover the author doesn't own any AAPL. Fortunately, most of us already own the stock and have held it even when articles like this are scarce. I confess to making one *very* slight change to the author's text. There’s a Lot to Like About Apple Stock Right Now With the upcoming holiday season and a new iPhone on the horizon, AAPL stock is a clear buy
With holiday-shopping season upon us, there are plenty of reasons to like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) these days. It’s true that the stock price has been relatively flat as of late, even with the company coming off a solid earnings report. But the rollout of the iPhone 12 featuring 5G technology, combined with Apple’s recent announcement of its new in-house chips that are powering its next wave of laptops, bodes well for AAPL stock.
Apple stock has an “A” rating in my Portfolio Grader and carries a strong buy recommendation. I think it is one of the best stocks you can buy today.
AAPL Stock at a Glance
Apple has had a solid year so far, up more than 64% since Jan. 1. But that growth is slowing down.
Over the last three months, AAPL stock shows a 4.17% increase. And over the last 30 days, Apple is only up 0.31%.
Is it reason for concern? Not really.
Earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter showed revenue at $64.7 billion, versus analysts’ estimates of $63.7 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at 73 cents, which beat the 70 cents per share that was expected.
The biggest red flag was that iPhone revenue was down 20.7% on a year-over-year basis, coming in at $26.44 billion. Analysts had expected $27.93 billion in revenue from iPhones.
Other segments, such as Services ($14.55 billion revenue versus $14.08 billion expected) and Mac revenue ($9 billion revenue versus $7.93 billion expected) helped make up the difference. But it was no matter, as AAPL stock fell immediately after the report.
iPhone Delays
While investors seem to be reacting to the drop in iPhone sales, I’m not worried. You shouldn’t be, either.
Remember, production delays caused by the novel coronavirus meant the iPhone 12 didn’t come out until October this year. So Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter didn’t include any numbers from the iPhone 12 release. Investors won’t see that until Apple reports Q1 2021 earnings.
And I still believe that the iPhone 12 is going to be a big winner. As I mentioned in my Apple earnings preview, preorder sales for the iPhone 12 looked great, and Morgan Stanley is projecting that Apple will sell as many as 240 million iPhones this year.
One thing that will really drive iPhone sales, in my opinion, is the rollout of 5G technology. 5G technology is a game-changer that will be huge for virtual reality and artificial intelligence.
It will allow you to use your smartphone anywhere you are as if you were on a high-speed connection. It truly is one of the most exciting developments for smartphones and should trigger a huge number of sales as people upgrade to get the newest technology.
A Word About Apple’s New Chips
Apple’s “One More Thing” event on Nov. 10 ushered in a new era for Mac computers. Apple finally came through on its promise to break away from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) chips. Instead, it will use its own Apple silicon and chip architecture from Arm Holdings to make chips to power its Mac computers.
The switch gives Apple more leverage over its supply chain. It improves software and hardware integration and should improve dramatically improves performance for its computers.
That advancement got the attention of analysts like Andrew Uerkwitz of Oppenheimer, who set a price target of $125 on AAPL stock. He says Apple’s in-house chip production will allow developers to increase their reach by providing a seamless software experience on different Apple devices.
The Bottom Line
You don’t often see a company rise 60% year-to-date, beat revenue estimates by $1 billion, beat EPS estimates and still fall in price. That’s how high the bar is for AAPL stock.
Production delays caused by the Covid-19 pandemic mean that the iPhone 12 wasn’t for sale in the most recent quarter. But I’m expecting big numbers in fiscal 2021 as the rollout of 5G technology triggers many iPhone owners to upgrade.
Meanwhile, Apple’s Services segment continues to be a growing dominant force. Services includes high-margin parts of Apple’s business, including the revenue it gets from developers who sell apps on the company’s App Store.
On a quarter-over-quarter basis, Services revenue grew from $13.2 billion to $14.55 billion. As long as that growth continues, Apple will be in great shape.
Couple those factors with Apple’s in-house chips that will improve its lineup of Mac computers and the holiday-shopping season, and you have a lot of good reasons to love AAPL stock right now.
On the date of publication, Louis Navellier did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
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Post by hyci004 on Nov 18, 2020 10:49:08 GMT -8
More than saving billions. Apple is no longer on Intel’s processor schedule which is getting worst.... delays after delays.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 18, 2020 11:08:10 GMT -8
The M1 will clearly save Apple quite a bit of money. However, I am still not sure if the DRAM is embedded. Is there DRAM made in 5nm yet? I *am* pretty sure that the memory controller is integrated in the M1 and I think the memory controller is what allows the various CPUs and GPUs to share the entire memory. I also suspect that the 16GB limitation is probably driven by memory architecture and bus widths. Next generation, call it the M2, will probably have a wider bus and will be compatible with new DRAM technology with perhaps 32GB or 64GB. Now a little more about IC development. IC development generally has a very long lead time, especially complex chips like this (M1) one. That means that by the time it actually comes out in a product, the next generation (and sometimes even the generation after that) is already in development. Therefore, I have little doubt that there are plenty of folks at Apple already working on (and even with) Macs with the M2 in it, and there are perhaps even folks beginning their work on designing an M3 chip. That lends further credence to the lack of concern over the 16GB RAM limitation, because they know that when a Mac pro with an M2 chip (or maybe 2 or 4 of the M2 chips) comes out next year (maybe), it will have 64GB RAM and will be screaming fast. It'll be interesting to see if anyone can confirm the memory question. I briefly looked for a teardown video/article that mentioned it, but couldn't find a good enough one.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 18, 2020 11:23:21 GMT -8
The M1 will clearly save Apple quite a bit of money. However, I am still not sure if the DRAM is embedded. Is there DRAM made in 5nm yet? I *am* pretty sure that the memory controller is integrated in the M1 and I think the memory controller is what allows the various CPUs and GPUs to share the entire memory. I also suspect that the 16GB limitation is probably driven by memory architecture and bus widths. Next generation, call it the M2, will probably have a wider bus and will be compatible with new DRAM technology with perhaps 32GB or 64GB. Now a little more about IC development. IC development generally has a very long lead time, especially complex chips like this (M1) one. That means that by the time it actually comes out in a product, the next generation (and sometimes even the generation after that) is already in development. Therefore, I have little doubt that there are plenty of folks at Apple already working on (and even with) Macs with the M2 in it, and there are perhaps even folks beginning their work on designing an M3 chip. That lends further credence to the lack of concern over the 16GB RAM limitation, because they know that when a Mac pro with an M2 chip (or maybe 2 or 4 of the M2 chips) comes out next year (maybe), it will have 64GB RAM and will be screaming fast. It'll be interesting to see if anyone can confirm the memory question. I briefly looked for a teardown video/article that mentioned it, but couldn't find a good enough one. I am going by the block diagrams that I have seen in articles like this. Further, see the quote below. Sure seems like the DRAM is built into the M1.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 18, 2020 11:48:25 GMT -8
The geek in me is blown away by this whole M1 thing. I think it is the most impressive piece of engineering that Apple has done in a very long time. Maybe ever. Obviously paying homage to the A series starting point. The phones don’t have the technical debt that the Mac platform needed an answer to. Meaning a backwards compatibility story for apps. Which makes the accomplishment even more impressive.
When you think about it, PC’s have been like dinosaurs forever regarding thermal design. Big noisy fans. Notebooks running hot. Soon to be seen as positively ancient. At least on Mac’s. Power dissipation has never gotten its due, on how limiting and important it is. Until now.
This is disruption at its finest. An entire new set of expectations will be built into consumer choice from here on in. How does the old Intel based world respond? Can Qualcomm deliver something competitive? Really interesting times in the boring old world of PC’s.
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Post by BillH on Nov 18, 2020 12:10:45 GMT -8
It will also be very interesting to see what comes of Apples acquisition of the Intel 5G team and its results moving forward. It was my understanding based on very limited reading that Intel didn't believe in the success of that venture. Clearly, Apple felt otherwise. Chip development is way over my pay grade for grokking the difficulty of it all.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 18, 2020 12:25:06 GMT -8
It will also be very interesting to see what comes of Apples acquisition of the Intel 5G team and its results moving forward. It was my understanding based on very limited reading that Intel didn't believe in the success of that venture. Clearly, Apple felt otherwise. Chip development is way over my pay grade for grokking the difficulty of it all. Chip development is hard. RF/Radio development in a small package like a phone is ridiculously hard. However, my vote for the most difficult engineering challenge I have been exposed to is jet engines. The forces, temperature extremes, and need for extreme reliability is just insane. I have had the good fortune of being a supplier to a few of the manufacturers in that field. Including one that toured me around and explained SOME of the challenges. Huge respect for the design authorities on those products.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 18, 2020 12:25:36 GMT -8
I am nervous bout M1. If you cannot run EXCEL as fast as Intel's latest offering, I think you are going to take a huge hit. I doubled my position in Apple when they went to Intel because I knew their computer market share would double. Turns out I was wrong. It tripled. Once you could run your existing programs on a computer that didn't rely on Microsoft, it was a sure winner. Emulators never quite seemed to do the trick.
Now with Rosetta, I fear we are going back to where we usedta was. Maybe the market has shifted and TikTok is more important than EXCEL, but I think it is wise to never underestimate the power of legacy code. Honestly, I do not understand what Apple has done with the ARM chip and I know they are smarter than I am, so I'll just go along for the ride.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 18, 2020 12:31:11 GMT -8
I am nervous bout M1. If you cannot run EXCEL as fast as Intel's latest offering, I think you are going to take a huge hit. I doubled my position in Apple when they went to Intel because I knew their computer market share would double. Turns out I was wrong. It tripled. Once you could run your existing programs on a computer that didn't rely on Microsoft, it was a sure winner. Emulators never quite seemed to do the trick. Now with Rosetta, I fear we are going back to where we usedta was. Maybe the market has shifted and TikTok is more important than EXCEL, but I think it is wise to never underestimate the power of legacy code. Honestly, I do not understand what Apple has done with the ARM chip and I know they are smarter than I am, so I'll just go along for the ride. Rosetta 2 is already emulating faster than on native Intel Chips. Plus Microsoft has announced native support for the M1. Hate to cheer you up if you are hoping for something to worry about, but I think Excel users are going to be just fine. More here
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 18, 2020 12:56:03 GMT -8
thank you, Lstream
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 18, 2020 14:36:46 GMT -8
Wow, that was a great discussion. I really enjoyed the read. Thanks to all.
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Post by dmiller on Nov 18, 2020 15:04:22 GMT -8
I am nervous bout M1. If you cannot run EXCEL as fast as Intel's latest offering, I think you are going to take a huge hit. I doubled my position in Apple when they went to Intel because I knew their computer market share would double. Turns out I was wrong. It tripled. Once you could run your existing programs on a computer that didn't rely on Microsoft, it was a sure winner. Emulators never quite seemed to do the trick. Now with Rosetta, I fear we are going back to where we usedta was. Maybe the market has shifted and TikTok is more important than EXCEL, but I think it is wise to never underestimate the power of legacy code. Honestly, I do not understand what Apple has done with the ARM chip and I know they are smarter than I am, so I'll just go along for the ride. The short answer is: you’ll be able to run all existing Intel software (including Excel) as fast, or faster, than on current Intel Macs. Next question 🙂
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Post by dmiller on Nov 18, 2020 15:08:24 GMT -8
So basically:
It’s “game over” for Intel.
That’s the post.
Questions? 🙂
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Post by Lstream on Nov 18, 2020 15:30:38 GMT -8
So basically: It’s “game over” for Intel. That’s the post. Questions? 🙂 How do you see this unfolding that leads to "game over?" Apple is going too keep its chips to itself, and they have a relatively minor share of the overall market. None of the PC makers can access the M1. What do you think that the likes of HP, Dell, and Lenovo are going to do as a response?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Nov 18, 2020 17:07:15 GMT -8
PED has Apple caves on App Store rates. The headline is a bit of an overstatement. The new rate only applies "if they earned less than $1m in 2020." Epic and others like them see no change. Remains to be seen whether this will satisfy anyone in Washington.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 18, 2020 21:00:46 GMT -8
I've looked into the DRAM thing a bit more. Notwithstanding the myriad articles that think the DRAM is integrated onto the M1 die, it is literally impossible based on at least two facts: 1. Apple said that the M1 has 16 billion transistors. DRAM has 1 transistor per bit, and 16GB has 128 billion transistors, so it clearly isn't on the M1 die. 2. DRAM hasn't been designed yet in the 5nm process, and the M1 chip uses the 5nm process.
Now, it is entirely possible that the M1 die and the DRAM chips (probably 2 x 64Mbit Samsung K3UH7H70AM, and Micron also has DDR5 DRAM, as does Hynix) are connected to each other very closely, maybe even inside a multi-chip module. And certainly the memory controller that does the magic of sharing all memory among 8 CPUs and 8 GPUs is inside the M1 chip.
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Post by deasys on Nov 18, 2020 23:42:15 GMT -8
I've looked into the DRAM thing a bit more. Notwithstanding the myriad articles that think the DRAM is integrated onto the M1 die, it is literally impossible… Apple has apparently done the impossible: www.apple.com/mac/m1/"M1 also features our unified memory architecture, or UMA. M1 unifies its high‑bandwidth, low‑latency memory into a single pool within a custom package."
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Post by Lstream on Nov 19, 2020 1:55:40 GMT -8
Deleted
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Post by Lstream on Nov 19, 2020 3:09:26 GMT -8
Deleted again
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Post by Lstream on Nov 19, 2020 3:28:47 GMT -8
I've looked into the DRAM thing a bit more. Notwithstanding the myriad articles that think the DRAM is integrated onto the M1 die, it is literally impossible based on at least two facts: 1. Apple said that the M1 has 16 billion transistors. DRAM has 1 transistor per bit, and 16GB has 128 billion transistors, so it clearly isn't on the M1 die. 2. DRAM hasn't been designed yet in the 5nm process, and the M1 chip uses the 5nm process. Now, it is entirely possible that the M1 die and the DRAM chips (probably 2 x 64Mbit Samsung K3UH7H70AM, and Micron also has DDR5 DRAM, as does Hynix) are connected to each other very closely, maybe even inside a multi-chip module. And certainly the memory controller that does the magic of sharing all memory among 8 CPUs and 8 GPUs is inside the M1 chip. Thanks for this. I got carried away in the enthusiasm and did not think through what is going on with memory. I think there is confusion on how the M1 term is used. Sometimes it seems to refer the the 16B transistor processor including the memory controller. And at other times it seems to refer to the entire SOC that includes that processor. That SOC would include memory chips as you point out. Seems like the DRAM are the parts circled in red below? Regardless, it seems like the overall memory architecture is partly responsible for the performance we are seeing.
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