Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 15:46:27 GMT -8
Maybe this is futile, but I'm gonna put up some ground rules.
Keep it factual, please. No off-topic ranting, no complaints about management if you can help it. This is the only pure fundamentals topic on this board, and there's plenty of other places to address your concerns about Apple's management and performance.
With that out of the way:
- It appears Oppenheimer, using midranges, has guided to a $42B and $9.75 EPS quarter (call it $9.25B net income, -20% earnings growth?), more or less.
- Absolutely key to at least _trying_ to decipher the new-formula guidance is figuring out just how "new" the formula really is, since Apple has given out ranges in the past.
- IF Oppenheimer's being serious and providing ranges to forecast, say, 90% of possible outcomes - well then we better adjust (and maybe duck and cover a little bit).
Contributions are welcome. But I'm respectfully asking, maybe to no avail given the completely understandable frustration we're all experiencing, that you stick to the ground rules.
Or just not post here for a week, whatever works.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 23, 2013 15:50:28 GMT -8
I believe the signal is for $ 12.00 to $ 12.75 EPS.
EDIT: new estimate is $ 12.40 EPS for actual Q2 EPS.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 23, 2013 15:55:57 GMT -8
I believe the signal is for $ 12.00 to $ 12.75 EPS. So you're discounting what PO said entirely? Sounded to me like we should all be shocked if the numbers fall outside of the range.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 15:57:18 GMT -8
Keep it factual and keep it calm as possible, guys.
I know I'm walking into a beehive with this request and making this topic when I did, but y'know what, I felt compelled to puzzle these numbers out in as real-time as possible. And I think getting that info out there now is hugely helpful.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 23, 2013 16:11:47 GMT -8
I believe the signal is for $ 12.00 to $ 12.75 EPS. HUH?
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Post by appledoc on Jan 23, 2013 16:34:43 GMT -8
Keep it factual and keep it calm as possible, guys. I know I'm walking into a beehive with this request and making this topic when I did, but y'know what, I felt compelled to puzzle these numbers out in as real-time as possible. And I think getting that info out there now is hugely helpful. I am doing both Mav. I look forward to this thread
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 16:39:03 GMT -8
Cl4...let me know how you get there. In the meantime, Oppenheimer's EPS guidance range was pretty easy to figure out. $9.25-$10.25, more or less. Hopefully others can help me get these basic facts a little better known.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 16:40:21 GMT -8
appledoc, it's great having you here! Just remember everyone - this is a sanctuary of kickass fundamentals analysis. We actually mostly were quite close on revs and EPS, within 5% IIRC, closer on revs. Let's have another great quarter of quality discussion! JUST REMAIN CALM. AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 23, 2013 16:41:08 GMT -8
I used gross margin and rev guidance to estimate the actual result of Q2. The unspoken EPS estimate -- well, we dont have it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 16:42:15 GMT -8
Yes we do. I just gave it to you.
Unless you mean, "the estimate Oppenheimer really means."
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 23, 2013 17:00:22 GMT -8
I believe the signal is for $ 12.00 to $ 12.75 EPS. So you're discounting what PO said entirely? Sounded to me like we should all be shocked if the numbers fall outside of the range. I didnt listen to the conference call. I read a few numbers here and plug into spreadsheet. Tea leaves are getting stale.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 17:03:14 GMT -8
There's something very wrong about the midrange of Oppenheimer's guidance. Maybe even his guidance in general.
But I'll try and figure it out later. $42B is a good "starting point".
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 17:35:07 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 18:07:52 GMT -8
Question, guys:
Just HOW MUCH do you guys think revenue leverage on its own contributes to GM?
Working with Oppenheimer's own numbers, I have a VERY, VERY iPhone-conservative estimate (so low there's no way it could possibly be true) that pegs revenue mix of iPhone going down 2% while iPad rev mix goes...wait for it...down 1%, compared to the previous quarter.
Less revenue leverage yes. But also more revenue leverage than in ANY previous quarter, _except_ for Q1 2012 and Q1 2013. In an iPod-light quarter.
Hmm.
Data:
REV MIXES Q213 EST PRIOR Q YEARAGO iPhone 54.20%......56.24%......56.85% iPad 18.50%......19.58%......15.99% Mac 12.38%......10.12%......12.95% iPod 2.47%......3.93%......3.08%
Anyway, since my last recalibration actually wasn't _that_ bad, I think all of the estimate instrumentation is pretty well set going forward. Things are better than they seem - but there'll be plenty of time to discuss and debate all that.
I've got my set of early numbers ready - I'll be taking it slow throughout the quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2013 19:28:27 GMT -8
Given my over optimism for the last few quarters, I'm taking the new guidance a bit more seriously. Here is my very early guess at Q2 results based on a very small beat of the top of the guidance range for revenue, and a 100 basis point beat on GM%: pick some holes in my numbers thanks, but absent any major developments in this quarter (China Mobile launch or big share buyback), I'm going to try and stick close to these numbers and avoid any group think driving me upwards.
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Post by prazan on Jan 23, 2013 20:08:44 GMT -8
Very useful indeed. After reading the negative commentary about the cc in the intraday thread, I expected something far less lucid. I found this quote interesting: "And so what does that mean for market share? I think we’ve had a great track record here on iPod, doing different products at different price points, and getting a reasonable share for doing that. I wouldn’t view those things as mutually exclusive as some might." I thought of the iPhone when I read this. Could Mr. Cook be signaling a broadening of the product line?
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 23, 2013 20:11:37 GMT -8
Don't see any holes, reasonable across the board. iphone number may be a touch high, and that is troubling. China will have to be big to get to that number. Hopefully Japan will add a carrier and of course CM is always welcome. T-mobile by March I think.
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Post by rosie on Jan 23, 2013 20:17:51 GMT -8
Questions to ask oneself:
Does apple make sudden moves? Does apple eventually get where you hoped it would (product line). Has apple been making necessary staff changes and additions in the upper echelon? Was an investor friendly person just added to work "with" PO?
Clearly these questions do not pertain to numbers per se, but they certainly are a grounding force to those among us with those skills.
So glad you guys are working in this direction immediately not needing to be right or wrong, just looking for some accuracy in a factual basis.
thank you.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 20:42:26 GMT -8
Very early, fairly pessimistic baseline numbers I have are $44.5B revs/$11.01 EPS.
It's too late, burgess. Someone else is already thinking around the same EPS as you are! Muahahaha ahem
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2013 3:03:04 GMT -8
I just read the conference call transcript again.
Both PO & TC say in different sections that They expect March quarter iPhone sales to be up on the 32.5 million "sell through" from the year ago quarter NOT the 35 million shipped number.
iPhone is in inventory balance as well, so maybe we should be thinking mid 30s rather than high 30s...?
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 24, 2013 3:11:59 GMT -8
I read through it also. Did not seem as bad as portrayed. Had to be there I guess.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 24, 2013 9:14:28 GMT -8
I just read the conference call transcript again. Both PO & TC say in different sections that They expect March quarter iPhone sales to be up on the 32.5 million "sell through" from the year ago quarter NOT the 35 million shipped number. iPhone is in inventory balance as well, so maybe we should be thinking mid 30s rather than high 30s...? Er...no? Inventory balance looking forward is unknown. Oppenheimer didn't say how many units were in-channel, only that 2.6M units were sold through in Q2. Analysts know sell-through, everyone else is starting to learn which is mildly helpful. Apply any not-disastrous growth rate to 32.5M (say, 15%) and iPhone should have a YOY increase. If not, prepare for even more pain.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Jan 24, 2013 10:11:32 GMT -8
I just read the conference call transcript again. Both PO & TC say in different sections that They expect March quarter iPhone sales to be up on the 32.5 million "sell through" from the year ago quarter NOT the 35 million shipped number. iPhone is in inventory balance as well, so maybe we should be thinking mid 30s rather than high 30s...? This implies market share erosion. Very bad sign for iPhone.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Jan 24, 2013 10:12:34 GMT -8
I just read the conference call transcript again. Both PO & TC say in different sections that They expect March quarter iPhone sales to be up on the 32.5 million "sell through" from the year ago quarter NOT the 35 million shipped number. iPhone is in inventory balance as well, so maybe we should be thinking mid 30s rather than high 30s...? 15% growth = market share erosion...a very bad sign for iPhone. Er...no? Inventory balance looking forward is unknown. Oppenheimer didn't say how many units were in-channel, only that 2.6M units were sold through in Q2. Analysts know sell-through, everyone else is starting to learn which is mildly helpful. Apply any not-disastrous growth rate to 32.5M (say, 15%) and iPhone should have a YOY increase. If not, prepare for even more pain.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 24, 2013 11:35:54 GMT -8
No kidding. But Apple stopped outperforming last quarter.
Gotta wait 3 months for official word.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 24, 2013 12:04:37 GMT -8
Adding 36 LTE markets is an interesting data point. Question is what effect it will have if iPhone 5 was already available on DC-HSDPA or something.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 24, 2013 20:02:01 GMT -8
The new LTE carriers bring an additional 300MM subscribers. Say AAPL gets 5% (15MM), but might be asking a lot in two months. Maybe 5MM, which is like a good opening week-end in US or China. Hope the phones have been made already.
Regarding MACs, number sold in last 3 years for this Q have been on the uptrend: 2010: 2.94MM, 2011: 3.76MM, 2012: 4.00MM. Throw in pent-up demand from 1Q13, and we might be looking at 4.5MM to 5.0MM. This might be worth an extra $1B to $1.5B. Again, hope the shortages are working their way out of the system.
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Post by Mav on Jan 24, 2013 21:42:24 GMT -8
A little crowdsourcing homework if anyone cares to look into it:
As many here may already know, this isn't the first time Apple's issued range guidance, it was just under different macro circumstances.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2013 1:02:01 GMT -8
Adding 36 LTE markets is an interesting data point. Question is what effect it will have if iPhone 5 was already available on DC-HSDPA or something. I was a it confused by this - these aren't new carriers right? Is Apple just switching carrier settings for iPhones running on 36 existing carriers?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 25, 2013 1:07:01 GMT -8
That was my point. Actually having LTE "activates" one of iPhone 5's main features and of course that's helpful. But if iPhone 5 already _launched_ in the given market, it won't have quite the same impact, unless LTE coverage is good enough at launch and people really, really have a reason to go and get an LTE phone now.
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