Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 12:59:25 GMT -8
You still qualify. If the slightly-over-guidance range rev number isn't enough, the 39.6% GM definitely gets you there. ;D I _also_ think GM is capable of improving because of the extremely unusual event of having iPad, iPhone and to a small extent iMac all very close to the top of the cost curve at the same time. Before I can see the GM plan in motion, I'll be a little more conservative. If GM really _is_ within 37.5-38.5%, that's "good news" for Apple the going concern (y'know, that whole "profit/price umbrella" concept Oppenheimer mentioned some quarters ago) but it probably won't be well-received by WS, whatever the explanation.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 15:51:00 GMT -8
I'll probably maintain the fundamentals discussions going forward, but man, talk about not much interest. Funny, all those WS analysts are still following AAPL. "Why bother?" AAPL's tanked, Apple is doomed, passe, for old people, for stupid people, for nobody, what's the point, let's move onto something safe or with a future or something fun like NFLX or GMCR or a 3D printer company or whatever.
...the fairweather types might say. To be 100% clear, hey, nothing against you guys AT ALL, everyone is fairweather in their own ways, I'm no different. But, to snarkily reprise a comment from the "hey, where is everyone" forum management at TMO, who have very little to manage these days: "I'll still be here, doing what I do every month or so."
(The snark is for TMO.)
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 16:31:35 GMT -8
I'll probably maintain the fundamentals discussions going forward, but man, talk about not much interest. Funny, all those WS analysts are still following AAPL. "Why bother?" AAPL's tanked, Apple is doomed, passe, for old people, for stupid people, for nobody, what's the point, let's move onto something safe or with a future or something fun like NFLX or GMCR or a 3D printer company or whatever. ...the fairweather types might say. To be 100% clear, hey, nothing against you guys AT ALL, everyone is fairweather in their own ways, I'm no different. But, to snarkily reprise a comment from the "hey, where is everyone" forum management at TMO, who have very little to manage these days: "I'll still be here, doing what I do every month or so." (The snark is for TMO.) Mav, I'm sure you took note of the estimates by the "pros" near the bottom. MOST of these are favored by CNBC for interviews about Apple. I'm encouraged that should Apple beat all of their #s, we'll get some positive media coverage for a change. At the other end of the table, did you notice that both Alex Gauna AND Colin Gillis have taller revenues than Robert?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 16:44:46 GMT -8
Colin Gillis is both perilously close to my numbers, AND he looks like a relative bull?
Up is Down World, indeed!
As for Robert, it's tough for me to figure out if he's higher on GM without the OpEx wildcard...OpEx can actually swing the EPS number a dime or two, and hey, every percent counts.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 16:47:54 GMT -8
The good news is, Apple can report $10.00-$10.20 and still be 100% within their "expect to report within" ranges. But $10.20 is hardly that great a beat, considering that the consensus is about $10.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 16:49:38 GMT -8
Colin Gillis is both perilously close to my numbers, AND he looks like a relative bull? Up is Down World, indeed! As for Robert, it's tough for me to figure out if he's higher on GM without the OpEx wildcard...OpEx can actually swing the EPS number a dime or two, and hey, every percent counts. I'm at 3.8B for OPEX. Moving it $50M higher to 3.85B, the top end of Oppie's guidance, and it removes 4 cents from overall EPS. Pffft.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 17:13:52 GMT -8
"You mustn't be afraid to dream a little bigger..." www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFnVy8SQvPQAs guided, sure. But static OpEx for way less revenue and no real change in stock-based compensation? Why?
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Post by prazan on Apr 21, 2013 19:23:59 GMT -8
Has anyone noticed that Wolf, Um, and Gauna are among the WS analysts who have given the highest EPS estimates, and Gene Munster among the lowest? This might be a sign of the apocalypse.
My estimates follow, with the caveat that they're not so rigorous this quarter:
$44 billion in revs, 36.9 Million iPHones, 18.7 million iPads, GM 38.5%, EPS $10.53. OPEX at 3.85.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 19:38:02 GMT -8
I have OpEx at midpoint of guidance too. Hoping Oppenheimer explains why it's so high for a post-holiday quarter. You can't pin it on stock-based compensation, it's not CapEx, R&D is always way less than SG&A, the "why you'll love an iPhone/iPad" campaign or the TV ads can't cost that much... ;D
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Post by thomson on Oct 11, 2013 9:02:08 GMT -8
Well fiscal policy belongs to government taxes and annual budget and this has to be made for the future proceedings. And it, goes up an down.
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