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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 23, 2013 15:53:49 GMT -8
Feel like whining about AAPL / Apple? This is the place.
I'll start:
What a clusterf*ck of a year!!!
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 23, 2013 16:03:36 GMT -8
Can you believe we're about to be down year over year? By April, it will be down a lot year over year.
Also, I keep thinking about all the other investments I could have made in the last year / six months / three months instead of AAPL calls. Take your pick.
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Post by jcaron on Jan 23, 2013 16:05:48 GMT -8
ah the apple swan song........ someone just drowned the swan :-(
On the brighter side, after a 50-60% decline from ATHs we should expect some sort of significant bounce...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 23, 2013 16:07:52 GMT -8
Yay, maybe our next trading range will be 450-520
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Post by terps530 on Jan 23, 2013 16:08:04 GMT -8
it drives me nuts that melissa lee is probably wet in the pants (for the first time in years) after this earnings report/cc. also i went from being a less than 2 years option investor almost getting my account to 6 figures, to dipping into 4 figures at tomorrows open. f*ck me. at least this time it's just on paper for the time being since 80% of it is jan 14 options. a lot of time until then, but still i bet the 4k per block of trade strategy i set up 2 weeks ago will be 1k per block now and I'll just have to sit and watch.
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Post by macwire on Jan 23, 2013 16:12:29 GMT -8
Just fuck. Fuckin fuck.
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Post by jcaron on Jan 23, 2013 16:17:44 GMT -8
terps how far OTM are your Jan 14's.. if they are far OTM do the analysis and see where apple needs to be to at least recover a portion of your investment. Right now I am going into salvage mode. I accept the mistake(s) I have made, now it is time to implement a strategy to minimize losses. And yes, I am looking at this as minimizing losses for now. Creating value will be stage 2 of the plan after there is a bit more clarity with this stock. it drives me nuts that melissa lee is probably wet in the pants (for the first time in years) after this earnings report/cc. also i went from being a less than 2 years option investor almost getting my account to 6 figures, to dipping into 4 figures at tomorrows open. f*ck me. at least this time it's just on paper for the time being since 80% of it is jan 14 options. a lot of time until then, but still i bet the 4k per block of trade strategy i set up 2 weeks ago will be 1k per block now and I'll just have to sit and watch.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 23, 2013 16:34:31 GMT -8
terps how far OTM are your Jan 14's.. if they are far OTM do the analysis and see where apple needs to be to at least recover a portion of your investment. Right now I am going into salvage mode. I accept the mistake(s) I have made, now it is time to implement a strategy to minimize losses. And yes, I am looking at this as minimizing losses for now. Creating value will be stage 2 of the plan after there is a bit more clarity with this stock. Here is the link to what I got from the trading thread: aaplfinance.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=options&thread=33&page=10#22403I went into salvage mode last month I could recover a good portion still but i'll wait for the dust to settle. Breakeven depends of course on time, but 550 by next Jan would do.
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Post by alice on Jan 23, 2013 16:55:24 GMT -8
What are your plans to salvage your accounts? I would like to see a bounce to sell.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 23, 2013 16:59:27 GMT -8
What are your plans to salvage your accounts? I would like to see a bounce to sell. it completely depends how your account is invested and your timetable for when you may need any cash in the account.
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Post by renee on Jan 23, 2013 17:26:21 GMT -8
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Post by jcaron on Jan 23, 2013 17:42:04 GMT -8
I plan to watch tomorrows action closely before making any desicions. After all the emotion is drained this could bounce. Results were not all that bad. Guidence sucks but it's not the first time. I was lucky, I had another bad feeling going in to this so I bought put spreads that ease the pain somewhat. Now it's time to take a deep breath, watch and formulate a plan... Of which I don't have as of yet.
Terps, you are not in all that bad of a position excluding you high strike spreads IMO. Those you can whittle down you CB over time trading in and out of the short legs IF we have price movement. I just hope apple is not going to trade sideways until some unknown catylist occurs. When the time is right you can then roll the long legs down and out.... This is the direction I am headed when the opportunity arises.
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Post by hydrarx on Jan 23, 2013 18:31:37 GMT -8
c'est la vie. La vie est dure. (That is life. Life is hard.) *sigh*
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 18:34:07 GMT -8
Actually, guidance worse than sucks because there's a perceived information void as to EPS. (There really isn't - I think Oppenheimer left out EPS to force analysts into applying the raw data themselves.)
But once you get past that, there IS the other problem of how to take Oppenheimer's guidance going forward. Personally, I think Oppenheimer is still leaving in the slightest bit of wiggle room.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 23, 2013 18:36:15 GMT -8
I'm just nervous about trading in and out or rolling the long legs down because that requires cash which I'm quite low on at the moment. I'd have to add $ to my account just to roll down eventually, but that would be cash that would sting a bit to lose. I'll think about it but let things settle down a bit first.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 23, 2013 18:41:36 GMT -8
I was worried that the stock was broken because there was a technical reason but after the TC call - he gave the street a fundamental reason now as well. It's going to be a long time before we get out of this situation. This will test the best of us.
By the way - some of the comments on the Twitter-sphere revolving around AAPL's management : new "lack of transparency" and "shockingly unprepared to answer questions during CC"
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Post by Wile E. Coyote on Jan 23, 2013 22:03:18 GMT -8
APPL = ACME?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 24, 2013 8:13:03 GMT -8
Suffice it to say, I have a list.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 24, 2013 12:57:49 GMT -8
boeing has flying vehicles that hold people in them, exploding, and their stock is down maybe 5% from that.
if one of apple's batteries exploded in a phone, instant 20% drop at least.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 25, 2013 15:52:18 GMT -8
The sheer length of time is exhausting. Are we there yet? Are we there yet? No, no, and no.
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Post by moltenfire on Jan 26, 2013 13:21:36 GMT -8
We're doomed, doomed, DOOMED! According to the EW thread we're heading to 360 or lower! Value investors won't start looking at this stock until the PE is 5.5-6 or lower, which means a PPS of $230! EPS is surely going down this year, PO said so, and iPhone market share is already contracting! Apple is not cool anymore! Nobody crowds around the iPhone table at the Apple Store! All the cool kids are saying buy Samsung 6 inch phones! The iPhone 5S will be more of the same boring stuff, and can't stop the Samsung juggernaut! Sell, sell, SELL, before AAPL breaches 400 on its way to the three hundreds! All the FUD was right, Apple is the new RIMM, and Samsung is the new AAPL! My net worth went from $465k to $110k in 4 months, and will be below $100k next week! I keep putting in thousands of dollars a day in order to avoid margin calls, I can't do this anymore! I'd actually lose less money giving away brand new unlocked 64GB iPhone 5s to random people than keeping AAPL stock and seeing it fall! Was supposed to buy a condo next year with the money from AAPL but will be moving back to my parents' house instead because I can't even afford rent now! Oh, the horror, the horror! My Jan 2013 options went from being worth as much as a nice BMW to being worth as much as a bike, and I mean a peddle bike not a motorcycle! The sky is falling down on Apple, I'm chicken little but I screamed too late! All the pundits were right when they said Apple's glory days are over as soon as they started building their new spaceship campus! Apple will do nothing right ever again, no one can negotiate as good as Steve Jobs so there will be no Apple TV! Tim Cook is not a product guy, Scott Forstall was fired and Jony Ive can't present for beans (that's why he's always only appears in a video) so all future Apple events will be boring as hell, and without Steve Jobs Apple will be left wandering in the desert until it's the new HP! WAAAAH! WAAAAH! *crying* Sorry I need to get this off my chest It was quite fun to write, and this is the whinery after all Please don't ignore or smite me over this post, this is the Whinery!
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Post by tuffett on Jan 26, 2013 16:08:08 GMT -8
I've been holding it in for too long. Here goes. Sorry to anyone I offend.
- Why the fuck has the number of outstanding shares increased? Piss poor cash management, piss poor decision making. What exactly is Oppenheimer being paid to do, besides confuse everyone in the most important earnings call in recent memory? Buy back some fucking shares. And by some, I mean a lot. If the CFO is more concerned about products instead of cash management, investor relations and what to do with an obscene amount of cash, I don't want him around.
- Management needs to stop playing cute and acting special. Apple is a publicly traded company and earnings calls are for investors, not consumers. When you're talking about earnings, I don't give two shits about your laser focus on making products. Start talking about how you are going to support the stock and provide value for investors.
- Stop guiding huge YoY declines and claiming they are more accurate. Unless of course it is true, in which case things are going to get even uglier.
- Why in the hell is a two year old phone (iPhone 4) in supply constraint for an entire quarter? I completely understand iPhone 5 supply issues, but this?! Samsung is easily able to sell far more smartphones and ten times as many models. What gives? Tim Cook, how about living up to your supply chain master handle instead of supply chain moron?
- Get a deal done with China Mobile. Your margins are already slipping anyway, might as well lock up a chunk of China before it's too late.
- Why is a guy who placed 67th out of 68 polled analysts acting like he is God's gift to Earth and threatening to ignore people? Does he honestly think anybody cares? Internal numbers, P/C ratios - I can't wait to see what he comes up with next before proceeding to insult or ignore everyone who doesn't agree. Biggest ego on the board and building a stellar track record of epic failure. Funny how that works.
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