Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Dec 30, 2020 1:59:53 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Dec 30, 2020 2:21:34 GMT -8
Apple’s lawsuit against Corellium has been partly thrown outHelp me to understand this logic, if I can find a way to break into your house then it’s okay for me to do so, because you may have left an upstairs window unlocked that required me to use a ladder and tools and a great deal of effort to pry the window open and steal everything inside, so now I can claim that it was your fault because the house wasn’t locked down well enough. Sure, it makes total sense.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Dec 30, 2020 2:33:24 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Dec 30, 2020 2:42:17 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Dec 30, 2020 3:07:02 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Dec 30, 2020 7:11:47 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 30, 2020 9:01:30 GMT -8
I thought this very interesting microcosm of how Apple dominates profits share vs market share: Apple’s App Store generated more than double the revenue of Google’s Play Store in 2020I've said this for years; Apple has a more educated and affluent demographic. Android is for poor people, Luddites, and paradoxically, geeks who love to root their phones, but think everything should be free (e.g., open source OS), so they never pay for any apps. So the irony for Google is that iOS users are more valuable than its own Android users. At a time when Apple is moving toward anonymizing ads.
But does anyone else get the feeling that Apple isn't monetizing that advantage to the degree it could?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 30, 2020 9:30:32 GMT -8
While individual sales per model matter, I feel overall iOS/Android sales are more important since there are a multitude of choices on the Android side. It doesn't look like they have this year's data in a cute little underspecified graph yet, but this early season article has the 2019 data. Guessing at the numbers since they left off the y-axis labels, it looks like iOS activations were less than 50%, but probably more than 40%, for the week of Christmas 2019. www.flurry.com/blog/2020-holiday-outlook/Of course, it also comes down to profit, both on the hardware sale and later on the software side. And it seems Apple continues to excel on those fronts.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 30, 2020 9:33:38 GMT -8
OK here's a short take. The court looked at two main issues. First, Fair Use. Fair use is a defense to copyright (and trademark) that holds that not all copying constitutes actionable infringement, because it would stifle the very creativity and freedom of expression that IP law is intended to protect. Fair Use has four factors, which the judge applies in her order. The purpose and character of your use The nature of the copyrighted work The amount and substantiality of the portion taken, and The effect of the use upon the potential market. The judge reasons that the four factors are satisfied well enough to be a defense to copyright infringement under the Lanham Act. Since Chinacat brought up the last factor, that needs some clarification. The fourth factor means, are you cracking iOS to compete directly with it (e.g., using unlicensed copies of iOS on a rival mobile handset)? In this case, no, Correlium is using iOS to test out its security software which does not directly compete with iPhone or iOS. So while it may seem like it is hurting iOS sales if it makes it look insecure, it isn't causing that alleged harm through direct competition with it (e.g., consumers buying Correlium instead of iOS). In short, making someone look bad doesn't make the fourth fair use factor fail. Apple's next claim is under the DMCA, passed in 1998 as a revision to copyright law to account for digital media, file sharing, encryption cracking, etc. But the DMCA specifically creates its own sort of fair use categories that Apple is going to have trouble overcoming, because there are exemptions to the DCMA for non-infringing uses; which, as we saw above, the judge tends to believe that Correlium's uses are. Examples are research, teaching, news, commentary, etc. Here's one very general way to look at it. Is the cracking of the encryption to "steal" or infringe on the underlying copyright (like with DVD or software copying programs), or is it for another purpose (e.g., security research). These exemptions are revised every three years, so it's impossible to keep up current on all of them unless you are an IP lawyer, but here are two of the statutory exemptions from the original act: The judge ruled that the DMCA violation(s) are triable issues (denied the summary judgment and headed to trial).
Hopefully, Apple will just buy Correlium and this will all go away.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Dec 30, 2020 12:02:24 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Dec 30, 2020 13:03:18 GMT -8
Thanks chinacat ! It is truly cool, fun, and a bit scary, all at the same time. Boston Dynamics must be quite a company !
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Post by aaplcrazie on Dec 30, 2020 13:08:36 GMT -8
ah yes Skynet...
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 30, 2020 13:10:33 GMT -8
Thanks a *lot*, chinacat. I *so* appreciate learning that today’s robots can dance better, and with more rhythm, than I ever could. /s
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Post by Lstream on Dec 30, 2020 17:47:48 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 30, 2020 22:29:12 GMT -8
Always fun to see some of these predictions, and as a bonus the year-ago guesses. I agree with the things I agree with. I disagree with those that I don't. Imagine that. Tesla probably will make headways in autonomous, as they really are the most likely. It's all about the space, and the risks. I see a driverless driver getting board and not really paying attention, but about the only step down would be slow driving to a car in an airport parking lot, where a computer would have a nice advantage of having a scanned recording of all the plate numbers, and thus get you there without needing to remember where you parked. Peleton? Variety is good across multiple markets to their built-in customer base, while multiple price levels could be achieved. Heck, paint the low end one bright green, and let it up-sell to the normal priced models. In some houses the bike is front and center. Netflix will have a hard compare. Some big-tech will deflect and partly comply. Trends, like watching video gamers, will continue. Work-from-home will continue to bolster our housing prices. Like a hydraulic system, the real power comes from leverage, in this case from the small number of homes here, vs the large number of potential movers. 0.001% multiplies out to 1%, as long as interest rates stay low and some people's salaries stay high, and we don't get a crazy snow year. It will be great if AAPL leads the FAANG yet again. How many years can it happen? Why ask, and instead just enjoy the ride? The reasons weren't especially bullish, but maybe the followthrough strength is enough, especially when comparing to the others on the list. I'd love AAPL to have another knock-out year, but it can't happen forever. OTOH, with reasonable expectations, and others having hard compares too, it might not even take a "one more thing" to keep excelling. We'll see. There is no alternative? Maybe oil related or some other downgraded sector, but it seems the next year is too soon for cruises, airfare, and hotels, at least on full-year comparisons. And without that, what else is held down? Is some are held down, where does that money go? A new wardrobe for the "in real life" reintro? More housing and related upgrades and improvements? Or do we give tech another boost? Times change, especially with a spring-loaded demand. And yet there could be good followthrough for a few months or seasons, especially as continued slowness in some sectors gives some extra funds for other sectors.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Dec 30, 2020 23:20:14 GMT -8
I think it depends less on technology, and thus less on any individual company, and a lot more on politics and law. The definition of autonomous isn't really "a vehicle that drives itself", it is really more "a vehicle in which the operator doesn't have responsibility for it" (not only financial responsibility, but also operating safely responsibility). In other words, there has to be some sort of law passed to shift that operating responsibility somehow. Similar to the way subways operate, a third-party has to accept the responsibility for any mishaps that may take place with the vehicle. That will require some new insurance law and some new insurance products become available. If this doesn't happen, then it isn't truly autonomous. Today, when you purchase a Tesla, and when you engage autopilot, no matter how good that autopilot is, when an accident occurs, *you* are responsible as the "operator" of the vehicle, and your insurance will cover you. And if there is any negligence on your part, *you* are the one anyone harmed will go after (along with any other deep pockets, of course). A true autonomous vehicle will be looked at more as a taxi is today. If there is an accident, the rider in the vehicle has nothing to do with it, and is rarely even mentioned in any actions resulting thereof. So, as long as the owner/driver/rider of an autonomous vehicle has that responsibility, it isn't truly autonomous. Perhaps when Elon Musk says he wants to turn all Tesla's into a fleet of "transportation on demand" vehicles (in literally less than 22 hours from now), he means that exact thing; That Tesla will take the "operating" responsibility, along with some of the profits that will accrue from it.
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