chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 23, 2021 7:06:48 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 24, 2021 6:40:33 GMT -8
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jan 24, 2021 11:24:59 GMT -8
Misplaced the link, but Apple sales in New Zealand were reported up 15% last quarter over previous year.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jan 24, 2021 12:56:14 GMT -8
Daniel Tello: Fiscal 1Q 2021 Final Estimates: aaplmodel.blogspot.com/2021/01/fiscal-1q-2021-final-estimates.html#more"...a new virtuous cycle of self-reinforcing growth has ensued for Apple. ... I sense the next 5 years won't be as tough as the last". If you're not familiar with his conservative or subdued outlook, glance at a few years of his pre-earnings estimates.
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Post by nwjade on Jan 24, 2021 15:03:03 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 24, 2021 15:52:58 GMT -8
When I was hired as a Producibility Engineer at Lockheed Missiles and Space Corporation in Sunnyvale, California in 1985, I became cubicle-mates and later, friends, with a man named Dave, close to my own age of 43, whose parents had come to this country from Argentina many years before. Years later, sometime after 2000 when my wife and I began to exclusively invest in AAPL, I encouraged Dave to consider buying some AAPL shares to supplement his eventual monthly retirement check from LMSC*. The share price at the time was about $225/share. Dave was interested but wary and even though his wife bought some AAPL shares as a member of her investment club, he decided to hold off putting any money into the stock. I retired in 2008 but continued to “encourage” Dave with e-mails and during our occasional lunches. In 2011, Dave finally decided to follow my years-long encouragement and bought several hundred shares of AAPL, using part of his company-run 401K. Employees over 50 were allowed to invest up to 70% of their 401K in *any* investment, not just the 8 or 10 options available to younger employees. My wife(also an LMSC employee) and I had committed the full 70% of our 401K’s to AAPL just as soon as we realized it was possible. The AAPL share price of Dave’s first purchase was about $415/share. After that first purchase of AAPL, Dave continued to add AAPL shares to his portfolio and several years after his first purchase, I asked Dave why he invested in AAPL when the share price was $415/share but didn’t do so when it was $225/share. He said something like, “I don’t know…I guess I just wasn’t ready”. Anyway, I related this long story about my friend Dave, just so I could share his last three e-mails. This first e-mail arrived on10/11/19, after AAPL had rallied after a pullback down to $190.40 on 08/05/19 to close at $235.44 the previous day. The second arrived in June of last year. And the most recent e-mail from Dave came in response to my e-mail to him wishing he and his wife a Happy New Year. Even though I've received a large number of emails over the years of my friendship with Dave, these three recent ones brought a smile to my face and made me glad I kept encouraging bugging him to invest in AAPL. I've seldom given investing advice(My investing advice = "Buy AAPL and don't sell it") to anyone over the years, but in this case, I'm very glad that I did. *LMSC later merged with Martin Marietta and became LMCO.
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Jan 24, 2021 18:25:19 GMT -8
My uncle highly suggests this read.. I learned a lot. www.eetimes.com/apple-m1-processor-passing-on-the-chiplets/#“ Apple doesn’t design DRAM (yet), but it does happily rebrand commercial off-the-shelf components:
M1 also features our unified memory architecture, or UMA. M1 unifies its high‑bandwidth, low‑latency memory into a single pool within a custom package. As a result, all of the technologies in the SoC can access the same data without copying it between multiple pools of memory. This dramatically improves performance and power efficiency. Video apps are snappier. Games are richer and more detailed. Image processing is lightning fast. And your entire system is more responsive.”Mr parse, well written, no chiplets for you! (Neigh soup 😁)
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 24, 2021 18:33:06 GMT -8
Anyone who's been long AAPL for at least a year or two knows that there are *always* negative articles being posted about the company and the stock. I'm including a link to an article posted on Seeking Alpha, on 11/04/20. I often wish I could remember to revisit a negative AAPL article months down the road to see how well or how poorly the article's author did in passing on their advice to prospective investors; so I was delighted to see that another AAPL Long, Bradmeister, did exactly that. I screen printed the appropriate comment series and included it below. I also obviously included some of the article in the article, but not all of it. If you're curious about the entire article, please follow the link. Now, understand, I'm not suggesting that AAPL won't see a pullback just as the article suggested, but longterm, I'm feeling pretty good about our favorite stock. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!! 😊 Apple Is A Sell by Fishtown Capital Summary After tripling since early 2019, I think Apple shares now have more downside than upside.
The categories of iPad, Mac, Wearables, Home and Accessories beat expectations in the past quarter, but could disappoint in future quarters.
Share repurchases that have driven EPS gains in the past few years will have less of an impact going forward because of the current high valuation.
Expectations for FY21 and the current 5G iPhone upgrade cycle are already high and could disappoint.
I've discussed in my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) articles that I believe Warren, Charlie, Ted, and Todd should sell the Apple (AAPL) stake after the massive run-up from early 2019. As it turns out, they indeed trimmed the Apple stake by 3.7% as of the latest 13-F filing. I'm recommending everyone else follow suit and take profits in Apple. I think expectations are too high and Apple shares are priced to perfection.
Valuation
The biggest reason I'm bearish on Apple going forward is valuation. The company traded at a high-teens P/E ratio for most of the last 5 years, before moving significantly higher in the past 18 months.
Earnings Per Share Impact on Share Repurchases
A big driver in Apple's EPS gains over the past 4 years have been share repurchases. In this time frame, the company has retired 20.5% of the outstanding shares, roughly 5%/year. Apple spent ~$255 billion to retire those shares. The way the math works, retiring 20% of the shares results in a 25% EPS improvement.
The significantly higher current valuation is going make this less impactful going forward. Spending the same $255 billion over the next 4 years at the current price would result in 13%, or 3.25% of the shares being repurchased per year. This will "only" increase EPS by 15%, which is a meaningful difference.
Conclusion
I think Apple is in a tough spot. Expectations are very high for the 5G upgrade cycle, and I believe it will be hard to significantly exceed those expectations and drive another major rally in the shares. I think the most likely outcome is that the shares remain range-bound for several years.
While I'm not predicting Apple crashes or mean-reverts back to levels from earlier this year, it is a possibility. I think the risk/reward here is poor, and recommend selling or otherwise hedging shares by selling call options.
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Jan 24, 2021 19:16:31 GMT -8
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Jan 24, 2021 19:55:44 GMT -8
Why 250 billion transistors matter, at 3nm, with layer stacking (substrates) and where the fallout might be. (Current M1 SOC has 16 Billion) Here is a current list of AAPL suppliers... moneymorning.com/investing/the-2020-apple-suppliers-list/It is a long list. Soon to be very consolidated +/- 24 months. Apple does not like being beholden to suppliers, and the above list, many will be IP agreements with Apple. Chump change, couch money. Much of that IP will be integrated on a single SOC, in a 2” “motherboard” Motherboards are a bottleneck, poor i/o speeds, memory read/writes and caches, bus interconnects, and storage controller increased cost’s, OS programming costs, a real CF (cluster f). 250 Billion is mapped at AAPL. ASML has the Litho, and TSM has the fab with AMAT ATL (atomic layer) equipment. The fab 3 is already producing samples for AAPL. Transistor count over time... en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_countNotice 2017 to date with AAPL SOC. Gorilla glass might be around for quite some time. Thank you Corning. “Will the landslide bring you down”, only to those looking up...
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