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Post by silkstone on Jan 25, 2021 14:49:11 GMT -8
Careful y’all, I know we’re all expecting a good earnings report. But it used to be CW around here that a run up into earnings means a tank after earnings on “failed to meet expectations.” Coming out of lurk mode to comment on this, and ask: is a good earnings result already baked into the share price? For options-related reasons, I am trying to anticipate where AAPL might be by this Friday. We've already had a $15 run-up in a week. The implied move from the current at-the-money straddle is about $9.50, which would put us well over $150 if earnings triggered more buying. But this seems over the top to me. Curious what others think. Yep, over the top or possibly irrational exuberance. I saw a (as in one) 1 1/2 inch clear plastic slip washer in Home Depot today for $1.97 but the fed says inflation isn’t a problem right now. The market cannot ignore what is going on in the U.S. economy indefinitely. If you made money on your options trade, good Job but just remember the old saying, pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. You can only guess where Apple will be Friday, that’s why almost all option traders lose money. The potential drop in our share price goes all the way below $80 as it did in the the spring. I sold 75% of my stock in the summer but I am now retired so you should take everything with a grain of salt. Apple is still an excellent long term hold imo.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 25, 2021 14:50:51 GMT -8
I recall a phone conversion where my brother was trying to talk me into selling with his reasoning "it's at $500 and expensive" and I told him I felt there was more growth yet to come. As it turns out now at $4000, what an understatement. I'm sure many others have experienced similar conversations.
It's worked out fantastically well for those of us who have hung in through thick and thin.
Even if things had gone the other way I'd much rather have the regret fall on my decision (and I'm made some bad ones over the years) rather than having followed someone else's advice. Yeah I had a lot of those "expensive" conversations over the years. And let's not forget all of the towering geniuses on CNBC. The Dan Nathans and the Guy Adamis and of course Doug Kass. Just imagine how different many of our lives would be right now had we listened to those bozos.
Still on TV, spewing diarrhea of the mouth. Never any accountability.
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Post by nwjade on Jan 25, 2021 14:53:42 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Jan 25, 2021 15:26:26 GMT -8
I’m hoping for a Apple Time Machine, no the kind that allows for time travel.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Jan 25, 2021 19:53:59 GMT -8
I have to wonder if it has something to do with a new battery technology/technique?
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Post by duckpins on Jan 26, 2021 12:03:36 GMT -8
Spirited defense of a completely non-issue?
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