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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 2, 2012 17:19:08 GMT -8
Asking 683 out of AAPL tomorrow would kinda be asking a lot, huh. One level at a time. Stranger things have happened. But yes, one level at a time.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 3, 2012 10:59:10 GMT -8
AAPL wedge?
A move is on the way...but which direction...?
Well, based on the move past 668, my bet's on UP...
iPad, how much importance should I give slightly low volume for AAPL on the day? (Which is also quite a bit lower than the volume from yesterday at what I think was 18M vs. ~14M today?)
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2012 12:03:21 GMT -8
iPad, how much importance should I give slightly low volume for AAPL on the day? (Which is also quite a bit lower than the volume from yesterday at what I think was 18M vs. ~14M today?) 1% importance. Just something to note, but only PRICE matters. We've bled up on low volume before, and we can do it again!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2012 15:05:47 GMT -8
I used 660 for neckline and 705 for top of head, which gives a measured move of 45. 660-45= 615. That's what I thought. Good job. Not ready to go there yet, but yep, the possibility is out there.
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icam
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Post by icam on Oct 3, 2012 15:14:47 GMT -8
I used 660 for neckline and 705 for top of head, which gives a measured move of 45. 660-45= 615. That's what I thought. Good job. Not ready to go there yet, but yep, the possibility is out there. I'm officially confused. TA seems to be more black magic tarot card reading than logic based.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 3, 2012 15:41:36 GMT -8
Actually, AAPL volume ended up pretty OK end of day. A nice wave of buying to bring volume to about 15M.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2012 17:30:45 GMT -8
That's what I thought. Good job. Not ready to go there yet, but yep, the possibility is out there. I'm officially confused. TA seems to be more black magic tarot card reading than logic based. Elaborate?? It's pretty math- and psychology- and supply/demand-based to me. But we do have a contingent who believe it's chicken entrails, so if you decide to go that way, you won't be alone.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2012 17:58:04 GMT -8
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icam
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Post by icam on Oct 3, 2012 18:08:24 GMT -8
My confusion comes in when I try to identify where the bottom will be. Why wouldn't you be willing to go where I went (615) yet? Seems folks around here think the crisis is over and we're off to new highs.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 3, 2012 18:10:53 GMT -8
Day by day. Always. Patterns are only patterns in hindsight. Confirmation is always subject to reversal, etc.
Whether it's fundamentals or technicals, the gist is the same: Be ready for anything, especially if you trade.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2012 18:56:02 GMT -8
My confusion comes in when I try to identify where the bottom will be. Why wouldn't you be willing to go where I went (615) yet? Seems folks around here think the crisis is over and we're off to new highs. Well, I'm always afraid that I'll prematurely scare the cr*p out of people and they will act on my conjecture. And since forecasts are always conjecture, I try to avoid making them. That said, happy to discuss possible bottoms. I don't think the crisis is over, and we're off to new highs. I think we're in the middle of a channel, and we have to take things level by level -- as always. Also, please keep in mind that TA isn't going to tell you where the bottom WILL be, only some possible targets to watch for where it MAY be. For instance, we knew it was "highly likely" we'd get a strong bounce off the daily SMA-50 on the first test, and we did. Now, we wait to see whether or not there's a retest. IF that wasn't the bottom, here are some progressively worst-case downside targets: 1) 623: weekly SMA-20 2) 615: measured move for the larger H&S breakdown that you mentioned (confluence with the daily SMA-100, currently at 616-ish; PE = 14.50); 3) 585: post-earnings gap fill (PE = 13.75); 4) 569: daily SMA-200 (would be higher by the time we got there); 5) 540: weekly SMA-50 This is my favorite TA book: TRADING FOR A LIVING by Alexander Elder. He's a shrink and explains things a lot better than I do.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2012 18:59:10 GMT -8
Day by day. Always. Patterns are only patterns in hindsight. Confirmation is always subject to reversal, etc. Whether it's fundamentals or technicals, the gist is the same: Be ready for anything, especially if you trade. +705.07
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 3, 2012 19:23:00 GMT -8
My confusion comes in when I try to identify where the bottom will be. Why wouldn't you be willing to go where I went (615) yet? Seems folks around here think the crisis is over and we're off to new highs. I do not try to lock in on a bottom. If you have a predetermined target you miss all the others. I don't think everyone here thinks we are out of the woods. far from it. Unless we get over 683, all we have done is secured another down leg. Here is the thing. If anyone has cash available, (I do not have much) 650 was a $55 discount to 705. Holding out for a lower price does not make sense. The lower it goes the stronger the support. I would not be a buyer right here, but I am not selling either. I am a turkey in the shooting gallery. ;D
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icam
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Post by icam on Oct 3, 2012 19:30:58 GMT -8
Thanks iPad. I have my core postitons that have not, and will, not change, but with my swing money I'm in the wait and see camp. I don't think the EO's are done f'n with people yet. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong and miss out on this run with a small fraction of my money. If I'm right, I will love owning what I own, and thats a requirement for me. I have to love what I own.
BTW - if any of your targets #'s 3, 4, or 5 become reality, the buzz around here will be off the charts.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 3, 2012 19:40:01 GMT -8
Thanks iPad. I have my core postitons that have not, and will, not change, but with my swing money I'm in the wait and see camp. I don't think the EO's are done f'n with people yet. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong and miss out on this run with a small fraction of my money. If I'm right, I will love owning what I own, and thats a requirement for me. I have to love what I own. BTW - if any of your targets #'s 3, 4, or 5 become reality, the buzz around here will be off the charts. If 3, 4, or 5 happen, "the buzz" would not be how I would describe things.
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icam
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Post by icam on Oct 3, 2012 21:28:09 GMT -8
I chose that word carefully so as not to incite a panic riot, as well as to keep it PG.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 3, 2012 21:36:02 GMT -8
Well, I'm always afraid that I'll prematurely scare the cr*p out of people and they will act on my conjecture. And since forecasts are always conjecture, I try to avoid making them. iPad...I BLAME YOU FOR ALL MY BAD TRADES! Ah, it was worth the Mace imitation and -5 Karma.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 3, 2012 21:39:56 GMT -8
Thanks iPad. I have my core postitons that have not, and will, not change, but with my swing money I'm in the wait and see camp. I don't think the EO's are done f'n with people yet. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong and miss out on this run with a small fraction of my money. If I'm right, I will love owning what I own, and thats a requirement for me. I have to love what I own. BTW - if any of your targets #'s 3, 4, or 5 become reality, the buzz around here will be off the charts. If 3, 4, or 5 happen, "the buzz" would not be how I would describe things. I would hope I would be smart enough to at least get cash flow from a drop like that... And no, I'm not being sarcastic or anything. Manage your positions, manage your expectations, manage your emotions. It's incredibly hard to do, and and I'll bet even experienced traders will falter now and again (the best of the best, who knows, maybe they've got the Zen or the Forceā¢ or something). But I've found that being calmer (as a trader, anyway) has really focused me. Made me more humble, more nimble. Hopefully, that means I'm a little more disciplined than I used to be. I'm not ashamed to share that I'm off my portfolio high of the year and I have no real plans to go for it again this year. But I've reset my expectations and I'm trying to go at this trading thing more deliberately. AAPL goes up, AAPL goes down shorter-term, I try not to get too excited or disappointed. I consult my crudely drawn maps on multiple timeframes and try to plan accordingly. That seems to be helping. Anyway, back to technicals programming.
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Post by macziggy on Oct 3, 2012 23:32:58 GMT -8
My confusion comes in when I try to identify where the bottom will be. Why wouldn't you be willing to go where I went (615) yet? Seems folks around here think the crisis is over and we're off to new highs. Well, I'm always afraid that I'll prematurely scare the cr*p out of people and they will act on my conjecture. And since forecasts are always conjecture, I try to avoid making them. That said, happy to discuss possible bottoms. I don't think the crisis is over, and we're off to new highs. I think we're in the middle of a channel, and we have to take things level by level -- as always. Also, please keep in mind that TA isn't going to tell you where the bottom WILL be, only some possible targets to watch for where it MAY be. For instance, we knew it was "highly likely" we'd get a strong bounce off the daily SMA-50 on the first test, and we did. Now, we wait to see whether or not there's a retest. IF that wasn't the bottom, here are some progressively worst-case downside targets: 1) 623: weekly SMA-20 2) 615: measured move for the larger H&S breakdown that you mentioned (confluence with the daily SMA-100, currently at 616-ish; PE = 14.50); 3) 585: post-earnings gap fill (PE = 13.75); 4) 569: daily SMA-200 (would be higher by the time we got there); 5) 540: weekly SMA-50 This is my favorite TA book: TRADING FOR A LIVING by Alexander Elder. He's a shrink and explains things a lot better than I do. I don't feel there was any real capitulation when AAPL bounced off the 50-SMA. Before we hit an absolute bottom, there is usually a lot more fear and apprehension. Maybe it's just me this time feeling much calmer than normal. But I would not be surprised by another reversal and another plunge. These things happen lately when you least expect them to happen. I'd also be thrilled to continue up to a new high !!!
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 4, 2012 12:59:56 GMT -8
Thanks, icam!! Good stuff!! Now, what prices for the "head" and the "neckline" in your example? With that measured move, I'm thinking you're looking at the bigger H&S (I haven't discussed that one here, I don't think...though I may have forgotten!!) versus the one in my 1-Hour chart, which is shorter-term version. I used 660 for neckline and 705 for top of head, which gives a measured move of 45. 660-45= 615. But doesn't the fact that we held above the neckline (660) two days now, minimize or negate the H&S?
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 4, 2012 13:01:51 GMT -8
I don't feel there was any real capitulation when AAPL bounced off the 50-SMA. Before we hit an absolute bottom, there is usually a lot more fear and apprehension. Maybe it's just me this time feeling much calmer than normal. You should have been sitting next to me then, if you wanted fear!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 4, 2012 13:51:13 GMT -8
Mav, great post!! MZ, I was thinking the same thing at the time...that wasn't a capitulation off the daily SMA-50. But, then again, there's no rule that says a capitulation is necessary for a bottom...it just feels a whole lot more reassuring when there is one. Then again, pre-earnings in APR'12, I would have sworn that first dive had a capitulation bottom, and I was wrong, wrong, wrong! RG, yes, it's good that we're holding the neckline, but H&S isn't officially *invalidated* until we get a higher high...on the mini-timeframe (683) and the larger timeframe (ATH); so the coast isn't clear quite yet. I have two concerns, one technical, the other paranoia: 1) all the bearish divergences on the indices; 2) the niggling question of whether the EOs took profits early again as they did in APR'12.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 4, 2012 15:56:02 GMT -8
I have two concerns, one technical, the other paranoia: 1) all the bearish divergences on the indices; 2) the niggling question of whether the EOs took profits early again as they did in APR'12. That's right, the "10th of the earnings month" curse!! We had problems starting April 10, and a similar yet less severe incident on July 10. I guess they can use the H&S to cover their tracks.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 4, 2012 16:03:32 GMT -8
The H&S is what's SHOWING us their tracks!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 4, 2012 17:20:18 GMT -8
Btw iPad, Redler tweeted: "$AAPL did what it was suppose to. It held my $665-$667 constructive support area. As it digests 20+ two day move". Why do you feel differently?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 4, 2012 18:06:14 GMT -8
We usually rebound harder and faster and consolidate higher than 20-25 points off the low (which could be entirely OE-related). Bearish crosses on multiple timeframes (which may disappear on Monday), relative weakness, and this year's pattern of illogical rises and falls. Close above the daily SMA-20, and stay above there, and I retract all bearish sentiment (which is only short-term anyway).
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 4, 2012 18:09:36 GMT -8
Nothing is EVER "foreordained" in TA. Nothing. Middle of the channel is always the most treacherous. Sidelines = smart!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 4, 2012 18:17:18 GMT -8
Just helping myself look like a complete ass let our newer forum people know that your conviction is not to be taken as prediction.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 4, 2012 18:22:25 GMT -8
Let me ask the question another way: What's your take on Redler's theory? It sounds very common-sense to me (one reason I'm a Redler fan), but is it "pure price action"-type analysis? It kinda seems like Redler doesn't "care" about stuff like divergences. I know he filters out market "noise", with what seems to be pretty consistent success.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 4, 2012 18:34:47 GMT -8
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