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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 6, 2012 4:49:47 GMT -8
There's always the chance we have a massive gap up on Monday and never look back. Stranger things have happened -- like a 135-point run after an earnings miss...and all those crazy plunges after all those stellar earnings beats. I was thinking maybe a relief rally might be in store. The pattern to this stock during this downtrend has been 2 days down followed by 1 day up, so maybe - hopefully - that's Monday. It's also mini IPad (sounds like one of your children, Ms. IPad) invitations week, supposedly on Wednesday, so maybe that will temper the bearishness a little. And you can always hope for a peaceful resolution of the labor unrest at the manufacturing plants in China over the week-end.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 6, 2012 5:24:32 GMT -8
RG, look at Lovey's h&k's chart, at the top it says "target 616".
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 6, 2012 7:48:54 GMT -8
iPad...it's really not fair that all you do is win, win, win. (/reference to something I've never listened to) I mean, congrats and all on the great trades, but... Oh, I routinely get my clock cleaned once/quarter...and my best earnings play was the one time I didn't play earnings and only suffered opportunity losses.
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Post by kloot on Oct 6, 2012 17:53:59 GMT -8
Cobra measures fib levels at 519-705, with 634ish being the 38.2% retracement. He thinks lots of folks will try to buy here on this principle, making this a key level of support. 519 is div-adjusted from that 522.xx trade that was bogus. the real low was around 530. which means about 527 with the dividend. anyway, it's annoying that technicians are going to give up 8 points just like that. because of the size of the run (705), it doesn't really matter much since the new fib calculation would be about 3 points difference. but still. i always think these targets start to seem a little too obvious and even CNBC hosts start talking about them, and then it happens anyway!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 6, 2012 18:04:47 GMT -8
I would measure from 530 myself, but hey, easy to compensate for my making a range out of that level anyway.
I'd better put in a stock price alert around the 630s. iPad, where's our colloborative 2-day trendline put us if AAPL touches the bottom of the channel by sometimes next week?
(That's right...it's Shake 'n Bakeā¢ a trendline analysis, and I helped.)
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 6, 2012 21:41:08 GMT -8
Mav, I was "talking" to Avi tonight (he likes my EW count!!). He said (paraphrasing): IF AAPL does pull back to that daily SMA-100 region, THEN that could set up a slingshot to the 900-1100 region in the JAN'13 - MAR'13 timeframe!! Let's just file that one away under "holy cr*p!"
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 6, 2012 22:38:11 GMT -8
Wha?!? We get over 1000 by then, I might start to learn how to "count"! (Get it? "Count"? Wave 1! 2! 3! 4! 5-c-3-iii-4-z! A ha ha ha ha I'll be here all week)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 6, 2012 22:42:38 GMT -8
Hmm...Check out the 23.6% retracement of the 420-705 move...I'm sure there might be a confluence or two in there if AAPL's selloff can slow down for another few trading days...
Btw, 23.6%, 25%, what's the "difference"? Why do some traders look at a "25%" retrace?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 7, 2012 4:26:30 GMT -8
When I read these posts and I read posts in other threads...the numbers don't always line up. There are times the techies are off by mulitple pts. (I kid you not). My charts are on my Etrade account and each time we speak about moving averages I have to log in again and it's a pain. Do you think that when you speak about SMAs and the like you can also...maybe in parenthesis...put the approximately price level that you interpret that to be? I would truly and sincerely appreciate it...especially when I am reading posts from my phone. Thanks in advance! (or maybe I am just finding it incredulous that we are even talking about a 520 area and need someone to shake me from THAT nightmare!)
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 7, 2012 5:01:01 GMT -8
Phoebes, keep in mind that the moving averages MOVE. Daily SMA-100 currently = 617.36
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 7, 2012 8:57:21 GMT -8
Actually I did mean 620 which i would consider a nightmare (520 would be Armageddon) - my husband thinks I exaggerate at times- ya think?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 7, 2012 13:08:13 GMT -8
Hmm...Check out the 23.6% retracement of the 420-705 move...I'm sure there might be a confluence or two in there if AAPL's selloff can slow down for another few trading days... Btw, 23.6%, 25%, what's the "difference"? Why do some traders look at a "25%" retrace? Some use 25%, 50%, 75%. There's this whole "Gartley" thing that's like EW but different. Used in ForEx. I don't need that complication -- I'm sticking with Fibs. On the other, you meant 520, right? P.S. LOL re: "The Count." Now I have "One ringy-dingy! TWO ringy-dingy" in my head!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 13:10:04 GMT -8
Nope! I meant 420. (I use 530 for the post-April drop low.) Forgive the crypticness, but I think you know what point in time I'm referring to. I'm also interested to know if you might kind of maybe see what I think I see.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 7, 2012 13:15:33 GMT -8
Ooooh...lemme look... (I'm such a chart geek! ) EDIT: Holy cr*p, Mav! I think you're on to something!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 13:19:37 GMT -8
Interesting, isn't it? That this might slowly be happening to me: Of course, dummies never learn if you don't call a spade a spade either though: So, I wanna be sure I might be on the right track here.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 7, 2012 13:37:24 GMT -8
Hmm...Check out the 23.6% retracement of the 420-705 move...I'm sure there might be a confluence or two in there if AAPL's selloff can slow down for another few trading days... Ahem. Just so everyone knows...the answer is: 637. Mav found ANOTHER confluence at 637. (Plus, there are some uber-bullish EW implications here, but let me work on that a bit more and run it by Avi before complicating matters here. )
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 13:38:25 GMT -8
It's not a huge insight. It's just another confluence is all. The reason I picked 420, btw, is because that was a starting point for the mega-accelerated uptrend this year. Also of interest, it was just about the high point of that crazy buying wave in October 2011 before AAPL reversed significantly. I remember because I stumbled upon a "cute short" trade that would make even Scott Redler jealous. ;D (Also, hey, cup and handle.) I'd love for SMA-100 to catch up to add some extra punch, but we'll see...
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 7, 2012 13:48:17 GMT -8
Mav, I'm duly impressed!! Hey, look at this: AAPL TWO-DAY CHART: Fast Sto's already on the ground -- it can't stay there forever. At the very least, there should be an oversold bounce if not a bottom. Note: the lower BB = 636.14 Watch this area carefully... Even if it's not THE bottom, there's SO much confluence there (gap too!), that should we even get there, that could be a sizeable bounce point. IMHO, there's also so much confluence there, that could be an excellent place to add to core long holdings. I don't like that bearish cross with EMA-13 and SMA-20. See the last time that happened. Note: SMA-50 = 622.40...that's our other confluence area. IMHO, that's where you back up the truck. Below that, I hock my jewelry. Okay, I have my game plan.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 13:56:18 GMT -8
Isn't SMA-50/2-day another way of saying SMA-100/daily? (in a few days)
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 14:01:52 GMT -8
iPad, when would that 2-day trendline be at around 635-637? Looks like it's almost here!
SMA-100 and 636 aren't too far apart. I think I'd start scaling in longer-term at 635, or trade a bounce if there's commitment to it, then look at the SMA-100 as a conditional add point (same general strategy - test with a trade or smaller longer-term position, add if things hold).
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 16:35:29 GMT -8
Why wouldn't it? Markets are like tides, and AAPL can't resist all the downwaves crashing against it.
OTOH, if AAPL is a leader (pulling back before the broader markets do), you can't discount AAPL leading the market out of the pullback either.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 7, 2012 16:53:55 GMT -8
I think the thing we need to figure out, since aapl has been lagging the markets, does it know something we don't know and the markets are now going to get their 4-8% pullback. If this is the case, will aapl fall further with the market? H2, this is my big fear. On Thursday I was thinking the S&P was on its way to 1500 in short order, then the dreaded Friday reversal has changed everything in my mind. If the S&P drops it is a safe bet that AAPL will continue its slide. It looks like the S&P has just had a double top. Here is the thing, we start earnings season this week. Earnings drive the market.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 16:59:15 GMT -8
If earnings drive the market...we might wanna lay low for a little while?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 5:16:30 GMT -8
Watch these Fibs: AAPL INTRADAY 1-HOUR CHART: "Should" get an oversold bounce any time now. Doesn't mean "will."
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Post by Big Al on Oct 8, 2012 5:34:01 GMT -8
IMHO, that's where you back up the truck. Below that, I hock my jewelry. For me the 100-day MA seems like a very good entry point. Might be soon the $622 you are talking about. However, my real "Back up the truck"-price would be the 200day-MA (currently at $573). Then I would go all in. Below that I would "hock my wife's jewelry".
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 8, 2012 7:27:03 GMT -8
In a WTF is going on thought, the VXAPL is at 39 today, up +2. The disconcerting part is that this is usually a level to sell. WS is really doing a number on me.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 8, 2012 7:33:45 GMT -8
In a WTF is going on thought, the VXAPL is at 39 today, up +2. The disconcerting part is that this is usually a level to sell. WS is really doing a number on me. It's tough to sell calls when AAPL is down, but you could sell puts or put spreads. Just a thought.
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Post by johng on Oct 8, 2012 7:55:53 GMT -8
IMHO, that's where you back up the truck. Below that, I hock my jewelry. For me the 100-day MA seems like a very good entry point. Might be soon the $622 you are talking about. However, my real "Back up the truck"-price would be the 200day-MA (currently at $573). Then I would go all in. Below that I would "hock my wife's jewelry". That seems like a good plan. FWIW, I'm nibbling here at sub 640 but waiting on going all in. I'm sure there's a lot of forced selling going on right now and it doesn't appear that the big funds are buying yet. cheers to the longs JohnG
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 10:55:49 GMT -8
EDIT: No one who reads this thread should have been "blindsided" by today's action.
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Post by aaplexcelsior on Oct 8, 2012 11:02:00 GMT -8
No one who reads this thread can say today's price action was unexpected. So true. I'm just a lurker here, but this seems a good opportunity to show my appreciation for you and all the other folks on this board. It's amazing how much I learn here, and even if I didn't manage to sell when the stock was higher I am much better prepared for this drop (unlike in horrible horrible April/May).
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