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Post by Rupert on Sept 20, 2012 21:05:19 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Friday 09/21/2012
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 20, 2012 23:23:11 GMT -8
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Post by mtjs on Sept 20, 2012 23:44:01 GMT -8
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Post by jumar on Sept 21, 2012 0:15:39 GMT -8
In Canada, my Sept 21-25 order is looking like it'll arrive today, according to UPS. I'm skeptical, but excited.
As for the maps, here's my take: the data is unacceptably weak in places, and the transit being missing is a big deal. That said, the maps and sat images in my suburban location are better than google maps. Also, the 3D view of New York is extremely cool. Once Google Maps is available for download (and it will be), everything will be fine.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 21, 2012 0:47:28 GMT -8
And a $#!tload of $700 calls saying,
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Sept 21, 2012 0:51:15 GMT -8
In Canada, my Sept 21-25 order is looking like it'll arrive today, according to UPS. I'm skeptical, but excited. As for the maps, here's my take: the data is unacceptably weak in places, and the transit being missing is a big deal. That said, the maps and sat images in my suburban location are better than google maps. Also, the 3D view of New York is extremely cool. Once Google Maps is available for download (and it will be), everything will be fine. I think it will be too. But not, say, tomorow. www.loopinsight.com/2012/09/20/on-the-rumor-that-google-has-submitted-an-ios-6-maps-app-and-apple-is-sitting-on-it/
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Post by Big Al on Sept 21, 2012 0:53:16 GMT -8
Speaking generally - you can appreciate someone's work and still be critical of it when it seems out of line...y'know, calling a spade a spade and all that. As for that straight-line extrapolation...oh yeah, that really does seem a bridge too far. There's also a little curve-ball called the 14th week from fiscal Q4 2011. But something like _65M_ iPhones? Might not be out of the question, and I doubt many if any WS analysts are thinking that high. That would mean manufacturing, selling, and shipping 714K phones a day through the quarter. Even if Apple can maintain that high a rate of sales through the quarter, can they manufacture that many? We're already seriously out of supply/demand balance, with 3-4 week wait times. But if you add the extra 10 days from this quarter, then 65M phones looks like a more realistic target based on what Apple has been able to ship in the past. But then again, Apple often exceeds the realistic. Extrapolating 100% is a little overly simplistic and optimistic. While the 4S launched two weeks into the quarter, we should not forget that the Q1 2012 quarter had an extra week. Also, we have to deduct the iPhone 5 sales in Q4, which will be significant since it includes the preorders and the first big demand wave (just look at the lines). So projecting 74 million units sold is plain crazy. I think that we will be somewhere between 45 and 55 million.
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Post by rosie on Sept 21, 2012 0:56:59 GMT -8
My phone is now at Seattle and my USB cable has left Shenzhen due on 9/26. 🎠Is up to 701.26. Back to 💤💤💤.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 21, 2012 1:18:45 GMT -8
That would mean manufacturing, selling, and shipping 714K phones a day through the quarter. Even if Apple can maintain that high a rate of sales through the quarter, can they manufacture that many? We're already seriously out of supply/demand balance, with 3-4 week wait times. But if you add the extra 10 days from this quarter, then 65M phones looks like a more realistic target based on what Apple has been able to ship in the past. But then again, Apple often exceeds the realistic. Extrapolating 100% is a little overly simplistic and optimistic. While the 4S launched two weeks into the quarter, we should not forget that the Q1 2012 quarter had an extra week. Also, we have to deduct the iPhone 5 sales in Q4, which will be significant since it includes the preorders and the first big demand wave (just look at the lines). So projecting 74 million units sold is plain crazy. I think that we will be somewhere between 45 and 55 million. Anyone so off-the-charts smart and sourced, that he can divine what Tim Cook and Apple are prepared to do, the most secretive company on earth, ramping up for 27 months for the iPhone 5 release, should join Braeburn, or at least be CEO of Apple.
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Post by Big Al on Sept 21, 2012 1:19:06 GMT -8
The lines in Germany are just crazy. I have never seen this before. An hour before the stores opened today there were approx. 1000 people waiting in front of the Frankfurt and the Munich store.
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 21, 2012 2:02:30 GMT -8
And a $#!tload of $700 calls saying, Although I have leapt into the shallow end of the options pool, I am still kinda new at this, so I am going to risk a question. Does the resistance come from the people holding the calls or the people who would have to pay them? My thought is that call sellers would want the calls to expire worthless and call holders would benefit from a higher price. So the resistance is from the people who sold the calls? Or is this a Mr. Market/Max Pain thing, where the perverse nature of the market seems to want the maximum number of options to expire worthless? Edit to reduce flame
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 21, 2012 2:08:12 GMT -8
I guess I should have expected it -- CNBC started their Squawk on the Street show this morning with a joke about the maps issue: "
"If you are waiting for your iPhone 5 delivery today and haven't received it, maybe it's because FedEx is using the maps on the iPhone 4 and they're lost!"
I should have expected nothing less from them. And along with the long lines they are going to be doing a story about this issue. Lovely. AARRRGGHHH!
PS - oh, and the Paris store did not go on strike - it seems it was more about lip service than action.
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Post by petertje on Sept 21, 2012 2:10:42 GMT -8
The lines in Germany are just crazy. I have never seen this before. An hour before the stores opened today there were approx. 1000 people waiting in front of the Frankfurt and the Munich store. seems that oberhausen is even worse, lots of Dutch people driving to Germany to be able to buy now instead of next week....
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 21, 2012 2:12:36 GMT -8
So I bought my three iPhone 5s at 5 a.m. -- two hours after launch last week. My account is now saying an estimated October 5th delivery. I'm miserable. And by the way, I thought it said Sept. 28th when I ordered it and I had hoped I would still get it early - like today - but it DEFINITELY did not say October when I order it.....wtf?!
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 21, 2012 2:19:23 GMT -8
I'm guessing Judge Koh will wait till after market close to make any announcements about damages today? Or does she care and is not swayed by any market movements?
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Post by Big Al on Sept 21, 2012 2:23:07 GMT -8
The lines in Germany are just crazy. I have never seen this before. An hour before the stores opened today there were approx. 1000 people waiting in front of the Frankfurt and the Munich store. seems that oberhausen is even worse, lots of Dutch people driving to Germany to be able to buy now instead of next week.... Apparently over 4000 people!!! German news sites are talking about a "Dutch invasion" ;D
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 21, 2012 2:54:32 GMT -8
It's iPhone 5 launch day... You know what that means... Yes, that's right Blackberry service is down for most of Europe and the Middle East.Research In Motion Ltd.'s BlackBerry is experiencing service problems in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, less than a year after a network outage knocked out handsets around the world. In a brief statement, RIM said it is "currently experiencing a BlackBerry service issue impacting some users in Europe, Middle East & Africa."
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 21, 2012 2:56:17 GMT -8
The map issue takes center stage and is on the front page of the WSJ - as much as I thought the euphoria over the lines would be the major focus - the media won't let up on it. Anything less than perfection from AAPL and they are on it like flies on crap. We saw this with antenna-gate...they pulled SJ from his vacation to address it but coming from Jobs and his arrogant-like ways, we were beaten into a corner and told to grow-up and they would deal with it and to stop being babies. TC doesn't have the same approach but wish he could quell it more in some way.
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Post by ellsab on Sept 21, 2012 2:58:22 GMT -8
2 years ago when I went to Telco store 30mins before open to buy the Iphone 4 I felt silly for being the only one waiting, this year I turn up 15mins early and feel even sillier as already 50!!! people waiting in line!! (they had a total of 63 phones, all gone before lunch)
I then went to the Carindale store in Brisbane, and 400 - 500 waiting, I asked one of the Apply guys walking past how many phones and he mentioned he was confident to have enough for everyone, only problem was you had to purchase outright only!!
So my excitement of waking knowing I was getting a new phone, quickly turned to sadness and also feeling extremely happy!! sad I missed the boat on first run, but happy where this puts Apple long term with things going forward!
Apple is a run away train! Can't wait to hear how many they sold in first few days!
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 21, 2012 3:21:22 GMT -8
PT Raised from $775 to $850 at Deutsche Bank
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Sept 21, 2012 3:31:23 GMT -8
Picked up a few Jan 2015 830 calls @ $86.50. Picked 100 Sept Wk 4 $700/$705 Bull Call Spreads at $2.37. Ah, the two extremes of trading options.
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 21, 2012 3:35:17 GMT -8
So, except for the maps dust up, the launch seems to going off smoothly. Huge crowds, nations migrating toward iPhones, and a probable quick sellout. Expect to hear stories of iPhones being resold for stupid amounts of money, people hanging out waiting for their store's next delivery, Chinese caught smuggling phone to the mainland and other signs of incredible demand. Cue the Samsung whine machine!
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Post by frqntflr on Sept 21, 2012 3:36:28 GMT -8
right now my screen's showing $703.30 (correction $703.50) ... are we ready for take off now that iPhone 5 is on board !?!?!?!
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Post by frqntflr on Sept 21, 2012 3:38:30 GMT -8
now over $704 in PM ... maybe all the traders driving the price up haven't yet heard about mapgate
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Sept 21, 2012 3:38:34 GMT -8
With today being an OE Friday (on top of quad witching day) with a huge call mountain at 700, why are we up to over 704 pre-market? Is it part of the green pre-market for the overall market (i.e., all 3 averages are up .25% to .31% in PM)?
JD, aren't we supposed to trade/close under 700?
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 21, 2012 3:39:17 GMT -8
704.30 in pre-market!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 21, 2012 3:43:32 GMT -8
The weeklies will be sold, rolled and tolled throughout the day. If we really move today it might be in the last hour when the tea leaves are a bit clearer on price stability and the call wall has been chipped down.. It will be fun to watch....
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 21, 2012 3:52:53 GMT -8
Yesterday I sunk all of my cash into options when we were between 695 and 697. Picked up Roth 10 Sep4 12 705 at 4.25 10 Sep4 12 710 at 3.55 Traditional IRA 20 Sep4 12 705 at 5.35 30 Apr 13 700 at 60.30
A big up day today sure would be nice!
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Post by Big Al on Sept 21, 2012 3:56:01 GMT -8
On the Friday the 4S launched the stock rose 3.3%. From 408,43 (Thu close) to 422 (Fri close) - 20.4 mil. volume.
Does anybody, by chance, know what the highest call OI was that week? Did we close higher back then?
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Post by davidcv100 on Sept 21, 2012 3:58:16 GMT -8
Here is a beautiful site of all the iPhone 5's flowing through a FedEx delivery center i.imgur.com/D4xKq.jpg
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