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Post by moltenfire on Jan 26, 2013 14:27:37 GMT -8
Sorry - "Maybe it won't stabilize until we're at $200, or 1x cash. We just don't know" does not sound like someone who doesn't believe this to be likely. There's market irrationality and then there's market insanity. Looking back to all of the corrections I've traded through starting with dot-bomb, none of them were insane. And why are you leaving Apple out of this? IF Apple ever traded to $200...they'd eventually settle with shareholders for $300 a share when the angry mob demands $600 for management incompetence. Not to mention the emergency actions Apple would take between now and $200 to shore up share price, prevent hostile takeover, or even go private (settling with an angry mob of shareholders in order to do so). You seem to have forgotten the $137B under the couch and that Apple's board and management are not completely pathetic nincompoops. Sorry Mav, I think my tone is getting lost in txt. $200 and 1x cash were numbers intended to be so low as to trigger sarcasm.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 14:31:11 GMT -8
It is. Use appropriate tags and it'll help.
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Post by rickag on Jan 26, 2013 14:42:51 GMT -8
I remember much worse times. When AAPL was @ $12.95 its cash & cash equivalents were about = to its market cap. This was about the time i first bought in(~$19/share).
When AAPL was @ around $77 people were predicting a drop to $50 a share, at the time Apple had about $40-44 per share in cash and cash equivalents.
To return to those levels AAPL would have to drop to ~$140 to $250 per share. At those levels I would refinance the house sell my children into servitude borrow as much as I could and be all in AAPL.
Apple still has strong fundimentals, makes good profits and has more markets to address.
My biggest question I am pondering is what is Apple spending on with the increased 2 billion in Capex? Is this forward looking or just investing in foundries to get out from under buying sh|¥¥ from Samesung.
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Post by moltenfire on Jan 26, 2013 14:45:50 GMT -8
I'm not really expecting Apple to go private, I was just curious about how that would affect its (former) public shareholders and options speculators. Not just for Apple, but for any company (e.g., Dell). First, are there any poison pill provisions in AAPL's bylaws which prevent a foreign or hostile takeover? Given how protective Steve Jobs was over his baby, it's certainly possible. If so, then the only way a company can be taken private is if it takes itself private. Second, I think at least a 2/3 majority of shareholders must agree to sell their shares at a certain price above the publicly traded price. Given that institutions own about 2/3 of all outstanding AAPL shares, it's only possible to get shareholder approval if ALL institutions agree to do so. Is that likely? I would WAG no. Third, the company must come up with a way to pay for all of their outstanding shares. Apple's cash hoard, while impressive, is nowhere near its market cap. Certainly Apple can go into debt to take itself private, but given its past stance against debt, it's not likely. So, to answer your question, a former shareholder gets cash for his shares. Long options speculators would benefit if they exercise (thereby becoming shareholders for a short while until the company is taken private). Long options speculators would also benefit even if they don't exercise because usually the publicly traded price of the shares would jump to the purchase price immediately after the news is public. I don't know if the news of being taken private would make volatility go down and hurt the price of the options though.
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Post by sponge on Jan 26, 2013 15:05:22 GMT -8
I remember some time ago Gregg pointing out that when the stock starts to sell off 3 weeks before earnings, it is a sign the big boys know something is wrong.
Well history repeats itself and one can look at the weekend threads to see the pattern.
Three weeks prior to Oct earnings the stock was falling from 652-604 and then again in January from 527 to 500.
Lets see what happens in April.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 26, 2013 15:20:52 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 15:34:15 GMT -8
I know Apple's Treasury Stock Dept. wished they'd bought back stock cheaper. (?)
Apple also might be pondering if it'll *ahem* _issue_ more shares. If 700 is some stupid psychological market barrier and Apple employees and execs see only 50% share growth ahead from _present_levels? "Divide" and conquer.
(No analyst has asked about a share split since some conference call months ago.)
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 26, 2013 15:59:27 GMT -8
I remember some time ago Gregg pointing out that when the stock starts to sell off 3 weeks before earnings, it is a sign the big boys know something is wrong. Well history repeats itself and one can look at the weekend threads to see the pattern. Three weeks prior to Oct earnings the stock was falling from 652-604 and then again in January from 527 to 500. Lets see what happens in April. This is all part of efficient market hypothesis as well.
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 26, 2013 16:00:52 GMT -8
Real Artists Ship even if the process is taking longer than it needs to. You have to rip open the Bandaid and learn by doing sometime. And who says they weren't dragging it out with iMac not having had a refresh in 400 days? Friction stir welding and screen lamination on a scale never seen in consumer tech gets a pass from me. Question the method but not the commitment. There's plenty of other better places to get on Apple's case than iMac. I hear your point. I love that Apple pushes the envelope when it comes to design. However, I wish they would have refreshed the old iMac design by adding a new processor, increased the hard drive, and added more ram. That product would have had much higher GM and sold very well last quarter. Two years ago I bought an iMac for my two sons. In early December of 2012 I ordered a new iMac and it luckily arrived December 24. How many iMac sales did we lose last quarter? We will never know. Also, both the old and new iMacs feel identical. The new design is cool, but it really just has a thinner edge, is lighter (I don’t care about this), and has a little less glare. Trading these incremental features for a huge product shortage was not worth it. Apple should not have introduced the new iMac until they had the manufacturing bugs worked out, or until they had ample supply to meet demand. Shoot, they were introduced last September and the 21.5" is showing a 2-3 week ship time today...the end of January! The 27" is showing 3-4 weeks. The product was introduced too soon.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 26, 2013 16:02:49 GMT -8
Real Artists Ship even if the process is taking longer than it needs to. You have to rip open the Bandaid and learn by doing sometime. And who says they weren't dragging it out with iMac not having had a refresh in 400 days? Friction stir welding and screen lamination on a scale never seen in consumer tech gets a pass from me. Question the method but not the commitment. There's plenty of other better places to get on Apple's case than iMac. Once they announce a refresh, sales of the older model die. If the production wasn't ready in October when they announced, then delay the announcement. There's no reason why they couldn't delay the announcement to January, once they built up an inventory. It's crap to announce the refresh, and then, by the way, it will not be available for two more months. That's basic stuff. And besides, it would have gotten AAPL in the news in December, in a totally separate event. The only reason I could see for this is convenience of doing it with the other three refreshes.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 26, 2013 16:03:57 GMT -8
If we fill the gap all..the...way to the 420's I'm buying more. I'll use margin for the first time since the dot bomb disaster taught me about looking at balance sheets more closely and maybe questions owning a company with a P/E of 70 or 170.
I think a cost basis of 420 with a 2.5 ( or 3%) yield, a P/E of 9 and 1/3 of my share price backed by cash....will allow me to adjust my rule. Better than a 30 year treasury. Margin interest not too expensive right now.....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 16:07:48 GMT -8
Apple isn't most businesses. They wanted to deliver the iMac by end of year. And so they did in limited quantities.
That's part of what you have to deal with if you hold or trade the company. The love, the hate, the really really hate.
Oh and if they ever announce an Apple television...you'll be glad they struggled through the screen lamination process. There's ramp and then there's production with live orders.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 26, 2013 16:10:36 GMT -8
Sorry - "Maybe it won't stabilize until we're at $200, or 1x cash. We just don't know" does not sound like someone who doesn't believe this to be likely. There's market irrationality and then there's market insanity. Looking back to all of the corrections I've traded through starting with dot-bomb, none of them were insane. And why are you leaving Apple out of this? IF Apple ever traded to $200...they'd eventually settle with shareholders for $300 a share when the angry mob demands $600 for management incompetence. Not to mention the emergency actions Apple would take between now and $200 to shore up share price, prevent hostile takeover, or even go private (settling with an angry mob of shareholders in order to do so). You seem to have forgotten the $137B under the couch and that Apple's board and management are not completely pathetic nincompoops. If it ever gets to 200, just think that Apple can buy up half the company back with the $135B stash, and the EPS would double, and skyrocket back to 700 in 2 weeks. This might be TC's end game. (Just kidding.)
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 26, 2013 16:10:54 GMT -8
Real Artists Ship even if the process is taking longer than it needs to. You have to rip open the Bandaid and learn by doing sometime. And who says they weren't dragging it out with iMac not having had a refresh in 400 days? Friction stir welding and screen lamination on a scale never seen in consumer tech gets a pass from me. Question the method but not the commitment. There's plenty of other better places to get on Apple's case than iMac. Once they announce a refresh, sales of the older model die. If the production wasn't ready in October when they announced, then delay the announcement. There's no reason why they couldn't delay the announcement to January, once they built up an inventory. It's crap to announce the refresh, and then, by the way, it will not be available for two more months. That's basic stuff. And besides, it would have gotten AAPL in the news in December, in a totally separate event. The only reason I could see for this is convenience of doing it with the other three refreshes. I think history will show that they intended to have a big supply ready for early December and to sell them all.....bringing the quarter's Mac sales close to 5.1 million.....but it proved too challenging. This was my major disappointment of the quarter. iPhones, iPods, iPads....acceptable....a million Macs light.....no. I know of two sales missed from family and friends. They had "money in hand"....but no Christmas Mac
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 26, 2013 16:11:37 GMT -8
Here's my concern - please tell me if you think it's unwarranted.: There will be market liquidations and shorts will possibly/probably press. Hedge funds love to manipulate their shorts to levels where there are stops or where they can crack a weak technical support level. Remember a lot of these guys know each other and are quite often in the same trade...so more pressure in the same direction. I am not a technician - but the 437-438 level, then the 420-425 level, and of course the 400 level (which psychologically - like 500 was pretty awful) have been spoken about by other technicians. If there are no natural buyers and margin sales are, as we know, market orders - I don't see how it won't get ugly before it gets better. Every bullish fund manager interviewed in the latter half of the week said that although they may consider buying more, they need the stock to stabilize first. Feel free to poke holes in my thinking because it will only make me feel better - but I'm not trying to be a cheerleader, I'm trying to be realistic.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 26, 2013 16:12:32 GMT -8
So much for that. It's revealing and sadly confirms my suspicions. You do not have some kind of "breakdown" or just leave when the market doesn't go your way. Unless... Give the guy a break. I'm sure he lost a small fortune. If I did, my heart wouldn't be in it, either. He said he was going back to trading 5 to 10 stock, with one of them being AAPL.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 16:14:47 GMT -8
Oh and btw, how is a radical redesign (look beyond the iMac, people), massively reduced glare, and big weight savings not significant? (Perceived performance deltas will continue to decrease over time, of course...few people need quad-core for email.)
It's a Mac. It won't sprout NFC or a touchscreen or a face detector or additional height/tilt adjustments or a TV tuner or an HDMI port or a Retina Display (not for at least a few years anyway).
You have Jony Ive to blame for much of that.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 16:17:08 GMT -8
And the rest of us haven't suffered either?
When you're opinionated and give advice (not something we like to do over here), you better be able to deal with the good and the bad. Folding is bad form, is all.
Like Nansen ever cared about what I thought of him - I never posted to his site. He'll be fine.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 26, 2013 16:22:10 GMT -8
And the rest of us haven't suffered either? When you're opinionated and give advice (not something we like to do over here), you better be able to deal with the good and the bad. Folding is bad form, is all. Like Nansen ever cared about what I thought of him - I never posted to his site. He'll be fine. You are on fire today, Mav.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 16:23:12 GMT -8
Et tu, Ensign? Check it out: images.apple.com/pr/pdf/q3fy12datasum.pdfNo, I don't think all 1 million sold were iMacs. Question the strategy but not the commitment. And btw, it's not like iMac at full tilt would've saved guidance.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 26, 2013 16:23:32 GMT -8
Compassion.
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 26, 2013 16:24:22 GMT -8
Oh and btw, how is a radical redesign (look beyond the iMac, people), massively reduced glare, and big weight savings not significant? (Perceived performance deltas will continue to decrease over time, of course...few people need quad-core for email.) It's a Mac. It won't sprout NFC or a touchscreen or a face detector or additional height/tilt adjustments or a TV tuner or an HDMI port or a Retina Display (not for at least a few years anyway). You have Jony Ive to blame for much of that. All of those features are nice. But I don't really care that the new iMac is lighter because it sits on a desk and is hardly ever moved. It's not a laptop. My main point is that a refreshed iMac with the old design would have sold well, been available, and had a higher GM. We could have used a few million more iMac sales and increased GM last quarter. And there were a bunch of frustrated customers who could not put an iMac under the tree.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 26, 2013 16:24:46 GMT -8
Apple isn't most businesses. They wanted to deliver the iMac by end of year. And so they did in limited quantities. That's part of what you have to deal with if you hold or trade the company. The love, the hate, the really really hate. Oh and if they ever announce an Apple television...you'll be glad they struggled through the screen lamination process. There's ramp and then there's production with live orders. The iTV is different. We've been waiting for that for a few years, and there is no current generation iTV out there which would suffer if a premature refresh was announced. But AAPL is not immune to human nature, which is to want the latest and greatest. They paid for it big time this Q. Another 1M IMacs would have been a couple more billion of revenue, and may have prevented this blood-letting. I will not give TC any slack for that. They just tried to cram to much into the 1Q13, because they needed the revenue, but it blew up in their face.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 16:27:22 GMT -8
A few hundred thousand more Macs, maybe?
When you're a company that looks ahead and has a philosophy often at odds with shareholder desire (nothing new, people), when it focuses on the long game from a position of strength, it will do something annoying like redesign an iMac that didn't necessarily need that kind of redesign.
Focus your concern on iPhone. Mac isn't the problem. Not when iMacs are <20% of Mac sales, and when Macs themselves are considerably <15% of Apple's total revenue (hence, my admonition to get more familiar with The Company You Keep/Trade™.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 16:29:38 GMT -8
As a refresher: I'm not defending Apple. I'm rather irritated with the company right now. But focus on the big stuff first.
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 26, 2013 16:39:21 GMT -8
As a refresher: I'm not defending Apple. I'm rather irritated with the company right now. But focus on the big stuff first. I guess I won't start a new topic about the crappy iPad covers Apple sells for $49. Or when you buy a black iPhone it ships with a white power cord, white ear buds, and white AC adaptor. These are little things, but Apple should get the easy stuff right.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 26, 2013 16:46:34 GMT -8
As a refresher: I'm not defending Apple. I'm rather irritated with the company right now. But focus on the big stuff first. You need a drink! Yes, I overstated my Mac number foolishly above, but you and I were very close on all our projected numbers and the one that I can't get around is Mac...in all its iterations...is it an indicator of more than a devilishly difficult new manufacturing process? Who knows.....but people wanted those 250,000 macs they couldn't get and it should not have been rolled out in October, IMHO. Built expectation and resulted in disappointment. Same with the iPad mini to some degree....but I am more forgiving there... Hey, I'm in...I'm buying....maybe next week...but the super secrecy works best when the curtain is finally pulled back and I can buy that cool new thing on Friday, not seven weeks from Friday.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 26, 2013 16:47:26 GMT -8
it is raining
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Post by newton on Jan 26, 2013 16:48:10 GMT -8
If manufacturing problems led to 0.5 million less Mac sales (or whatever the number is) and $1 billion less in revenue, then Apple should be able to make them up this quarter after their supply stabilizes. Apple needs to get out there and make this absolutely clear in the media. Maybe then then the AAPL buyers would come back?
All the institutions, hedge funds, and short term traders are dumping the stock. Most long term holders aren't buying because they already have the shares. Not enough buyers in the market means the share price drops like a rock.
Apple's fundamentals are still good but investor sentiment has suddenly turned negative. They need to do something to turn it around.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 16:53:25 GMT -8
You won't get color coordinated cables until Jony Ive leaves Apple.
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