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Post by mace on Jan 27, 2013 2:22:26 GMT -8
If you're an investor, you didn't lose or win anything because of price fluctuation. Your claim to the company, Apple Inc, remains the same.
If you're a trader, you're not a partial owner, are trading the ticker: AAPL and pitting against other traders.
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Post by blofeld on Jan 27, 2013 3:46:16 GMT -8
on Friday, Nansen posted that he "accepted" he was wrong about Apple for the last year; that it is no longer growing the way it used to; and that he is therefore giving up, ie focusing his superb analytical skills and intuitive insights on other stocks. Don't get me wrong - I am not blaming him, but his blog degenerated into a priest-like dispensing of bromides for the suffering investors who took his stay-long-options + LEAP advice... Not sure what this means but Nick Nansen's website appears to be down. Temporary? Over at the AAPL Trading Forum the word is he not only shut down his blog but removed all his "historical" info as indicated by nothing being there when you clicked the link. whatever.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 27, 2013 7:36:16 GMT -8
on Friday, Nansen posted that he "accepted" he was wrong about Apple for the last year; that it is no longer growing the way it used to; and that he is therefore giving up, ie focusing his superb analytical skills and intuitive insights on other stocks. Don't get me wrong - I am not blaming him, but his blog degenerated into a priest-like dispensing of bromides for the suffering investors who took his stay-long-options + LEAP advice... Over at the AAPL Trading Forum the word is he not only shut down his blog but removed all his "historical" info as indicated by nothing being there when you clicked the link. whatever. I have to say, when I started reading his blog and seeing his price/cash ratios and range of historic P/E values, it gave me some comfort during the downtrend that we were going to be okay and would come back. That was until we broke 600, and then all bets were off. Nick seems to be a good guy, and he took his lumps like the rest of us. But I wanted to make a comment about the Samesung G3 commercials which attempt to portray the IPhone as your parents phone, which is total crap. My 25 year old daughter had a gingerbread house party in December at our home, and invited about 15 of her friends to it. My daughter is an artsy kid, as are most of her friends who came to the party (computer animation, graphic design, film production, etc. with lots of tattoos). So during the party, I did a survey of what phone they had. Of the 15 or so kids, all but two had IPhones (and were quite happy with it), and of the two dissenters, one had a G3 (who I "shamed" into getting an IPhone) and the other had a HTC (don't remember if it was a smartphone or not). So it appears Samesung makes these commercials in an attempt to get the kids on the fence, or the ones who can't afford the 200 bucks for the IPhone (although they can get a free one, IPhone 4). It would be nice to beef up their commercials. That one about with the symphony orchestra, and how the background noise lowers when you are on a phone, is one I still can't figure out, but I don't have the IPhone 5. The one showing the panoramic photo feature with the small kids is nice, but we're not seeing it much here. It seems like ATT and Sprint are doing the brunt of the advertising. Perhaps they have this attitude that if we build the best phones, then people will find them, but Samesung appears to be eating their lunch when it comes to marketing and visibility, at least on the tube.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 27, 2013 8:49:13 GMT -8
I've been waiting for an iPhone wiht a larger display than the 4" in the iPhone 5. I was disappointed to read this story. www.macrumors.com/2013/01/25/ipad-5-set-for-october-debut-with-design-similar-to-ipad-mini-iphone-5s-and-lower-cost-iphone-moving-forward/"Addressing the so-called “iPhone Math”—hinted by one source as a mistranslation of “iPhone +”—we’ve been told that this is another new model and in early prototyping stages, certainly not expected in 2013. It supposedly has a 4.7” screen, at least for the time being. It might never make it to market, and plenty could change before it does. Consider it Apple’s “just in case / Plan B” hedge against ever-growing Android phone screen sizes." We really will be in big trouble if Apple does not provide an option for people who want a larger display. Cook thinks the 4" display is perfect. I don't. And I am not alone. I fully agree. As I have pointed out before, the #1 reason I did not buy an iPhone 5 was because of the screen size. All they did was to make it a bit taller. Not wider because they believe one-handed operation rules supreme. Well let me tell you Mr. Cook, we have *TWO* hands and *TEN* fingers. It is perfectly fine to use your phone with two hands or more than one finger. When I go back to my iPhone 3GS (which has a screen just a tiny bit shorter than an iPhone 5 - (and exactly the same width), I can't believe I used that phone for so long which such a tiny screen (I had it 4 years). I have a Samsung Galaxy Note II now and I am loving the screen. Yes it is a bit big, but after a week or two that feeling goes away and next time you hold a small screen phone in your hand (like an iPhone 5) you are amazed how tiny it feels. The thinking behind "we think we picked the right screensize" is just wrong. Maybe when the iPhone first came out (in that market-reality back then), but not today in a very much more mature smartphone market. There *IS* no one correct screen size. Apple should open their eyes and understand they should offer small, medium, and large. You walk into McDonalds and you can get small, medium, large, and even supersize fries. Hello Apple? Do you get it yet? Ignoring this fact means you are *LOSING* sales and ignoring huge segments of the market?
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 27, 2013 10:24:52 GMT -8
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Post by lance on Jan 27, 2013 10:34:55 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jan 27, 2013 11:04:23 GMT -8
I think we need to get a better perspective here. Apple was trading 326 in Jan 2011 a 46% gain in two years and was trading at 190 in 2010 an 140% gain in three years. Apple employees people for many years not just 12 months. Of course they won’t care about the stock for a 12 month period. One must look much longer term. WE will be fine and just patiently have to wait out this storm. By the way I would encourage everyone to read and listen to the conf. call. IPhone growth is still faster then the market when looking at a YOY growth from a weekly prespective. Apple is also signaling we will have less growth in smart phones this quarter industry wide and yet we will grow. Samsung is yelling smoke and by the third quater they will see fire. Folks this will look much different in Oct. We are comparing ourselves to the biggest YOY growth in 1st qtr FY12. It screwed our view up for the rest of the year. Lets be happy with 30% revenue growth and the stock will recover after the short term folks get cleared out.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 27, 2013 11:11:45 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 27, 2013 11:35:51 GMT -8
Who is this "Felder"?
He speaks some interesting sense. Let's see if he's right on the technicals though.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 27, 2013 11:46:53 GMT -8
Who is this "Felder"? He speaks some interesting sense. Let's see if he's right on the technicals though. Note, he measures Fibs from 705, and I measure from 644 for reasons in the EW thread.
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Post by sponge on Jan 27, 2013 11:51:28 GMT -8
Who is this "Felder"? He speaks some interesting sense. Let's see if he's right on the technicals though. Actually he is not the first to mention this. SirIssacNewton from fearnewton.com predicted we needed to revisit 485 the week before earnings. He felt DeMark was too early. Now he thinks we are being drawn to 420 and then we should recover. Fortunately that is only $20 points from here. This is the bottom, I just don't know how long we will stay here. When we gap up for no reason, it is the signal that the big boys are laying traps for a new batch of option players. Buy the way I think the call/put ratio does not tell the full story. Those selling calls are actually bearish and making a ton of money from those who are bullish. Right now short term there is little to be bullish about. We need to wait until July and Oct. to start a nice run up back to 600+.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 27, 2013 11:55:55 GMT -8
Different world iPad. Different world.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 27, 2013 12:00:03 GMT -8
Now that Greater China has been stripped out of the Asian Pacific segment, it is interesting to note in the 10K that the new segment "Rest of Asia Pacific" has been the worst performing geographic region recently for Apple.
For the last three quarters operating income Y/Y change was -24%, -10% and -16%.
I read that in India, Apple has recently lowered the price for iTunes songs to $0.29 and are also planning to open an Apple retail store in Indonesia.
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Post by Mav on Jan 27, 2013 12:02:48 GMT -8
India has a tough handset market and poor 3G + covg. last I checked.
I know one or two ppl top of mind who might be able to provide very valuable perspective were they around (ahem!)
Greater China is the current crown jewel of growth. Still very very early days.
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Post by sponge on Jan 27, 2013 12:52:22 GMT -8
Institutional ownership is up from 66.88 to 67 according to CNBC app.
It has been mentioned that retail and hedge funds have been dumping for the last 4 months.
Money is coming in but not fast enough yet.
We may turn things around faster then we expect.
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Post by maxmah on Jan 27, 2013 13:03:14 GMT -8
These kind of analysis are starting to sound like a broken record. We all know there's nothing wrong with Apple. And AAPL is not broken, it's basically 'owned' by MM, HF, traders, hit-n-run's. Apple BOD needs to buy back as much share as possible to regain control of AAPL. Double the dividend but no more after that. And split the stock so the average Joe (the typical long term Apple loyal shareholder who don't care about PE or cash, only the PPS) to start buying for their long term investment. Cheers!
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Post by mace on Jan 27, 2013 13:39:36 GMT -8
... The thinking behind "we think we picked the right screensize" is just wrong. Maybe when the iPhone first came out (in that market-reality back then), but not today in a very much more mature smartphone market. There *IS* no one correct screen size. Apple should open their eyes and understand they should offer small, medium, and large. You may be too presumptuous that Apple won't make another screen size. Is right one at that juncture. They may be preparing to launch another size later when the time is right. If you're saying that the right time is now, then I've nothing to add because I don't know.
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Post by mace on Jan 27, 2013 13:47:01 GMT -8
... so the average Joe (the typical long term Apple loyal shareholder who don't care about PE or cash, only the PPS) to start buying for their long term investment. Cheers! We may view long term differently, long term to me means at least five years, typically more than 10 years and hopefully forever. So the considerations is not quarterly eps but satisfied oneself that the business would by the end of five years, bigger than now and is still a going concern. In between, is not that important as macro and other transitionary issues may depress eps and share price temporarily.
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Post by newton on Jan 27, 2013 14:06:11 GMT -8
I don't know how you can see where Apple will be in 5 years. They could keep on growing for many years or they could experience a drastic slowdown and the company loses the magic that it had under Jobs. The market thinks the latter is more likely right now.
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Post by Mav on Jan 27, 2013 14:08:47 GMT -8
OK, put up Apple v. WalMart.
Microsoft v. Apple.
Yes, tech is a little different, but if you're not convinced of Apple's longevity by now you never will be. And you're obviously not cut out to buy and hold AAPL.
And hey, I don't "really" buy and hold AAPL either, so that's fine.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2013 14:28:14 GMT -8
I can't believe where we are at present.
My old "back up the truck" metric was a ex-cash PE of 10 - but that metric has been blown out the window and we are now sitting at a standard P/E ratio falling through 10...unbelievable.
This time next year we will have a TTM well over $50, and with growth resumed/proven PE expansion should resume, but I'm no longer planning on any PE greater than 13 (maybe $700 in next January If we are lucky).
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Post by Mav on Jan 27, 2013 14:29:58 GMT -8
Shocking. 128GB iOS devices may be in our future. (Well, considering that iPad 1 topped out at 64GB almost 3 years ago, maybe not.) www.macrumors.com/2013/01/27/ios-6-1-beta-5-code-hints-at-upcoming-128-gb-devices/(Btw, that might be a tiny glimmer of hope for the bigger iPhone fans. As I've said, I'm more neutral on iPhone Bigger - it really all depends on how Apple sees that market and how it feels about the prototypes it's invariably working with.)
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2013 14:42:45 GMT -8
Now that Greater China has been stripped out of the Asian Pacific segment, it is interesting to note in the 10K that the new segment "Rest of Asia Pacific" has been the worst performing geographic region recently for Apple. For the last three quarters operating income Y/Y change was -24%, -10% and -16%. I read that in India, Apple has recently lowered the price for iTunes songs to $0.29 and are also planning to open an Apple retail store in Indonesia. You have missed the last quarter (Q1) which saw resumption of growth. From the 10-Q "Rest of Asia Pacific Net sales in the Rest of Asia Pacific segment increased $376 million or 10% during the first quarter of 2013 compared to the first quarter of 2012. The growth in net sales during the first quarter of 2013 was primarily driven by increased demand for iPhone following the launch of iPhone 5 and strong demand for iPad, partially offset by decreases in net sales of Mac and iPod. The Rest of Asia Pacific segment represented 7% and 8% of the Company’s total net sales for the first quarter of 2013 and 2012, respectively." Another thing to consider is the opening of new apple retail stores in Asia/Pacific during the year - sales through these stores are NOT included in the "rest of Asia Pacific" results, they are in the separate "Retail" Segment.
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 27, 2013 14:48:05 GMT -8
It has been reported that Apple is looking at IGZO display technology for future iOS devices. I’m still learning about IGZO, but what I am reading sounds fantastic. iPhones could last two days between charges and the display can provide edge-to-edge coverage on a smartphone. www.idownloadblog.com/2013/01/08/ces-2013-sharp-igzo/I hope Apple comes out with this display technology before Samsung.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 27, 2013 14:48:44 GMT -8
I finished with buy and hope about 18 mos ago. It is never a good idea to do that on tech period. More so than any other sector you should always be on the lookout for the competition. Tech is innovation and nimbleness. I love Apple but I also know that the culture of getting big and staying flexible is a problem no large tech has overcome: None of them. The future belongs to startups or just plain copying for less in this industry. The hard part is knowing the target customer culture/needs and betting on the one that meets what people want. Apple has stickiness and a reputation of being the best. The challenge is growing. Unless they expand their customer base or come out continually with new products that the traditional base wants they will be the masters and owners of the top customer base but no where else. They managed to expand the customer base with music players so the future is TBD. Just my 02 but IMHO if you own tech you always need to be diligent. We are not selling oil services or cornmeal. Tech has its own characteristics.
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Post by mace on Jan 27, 2013 14:53:22 GMT -8
I don't know how you can see where Apple will be in 5 years. They could keep on growing for many years or they could experience a drastic slowdown and the company loses the magic that it had under Jobs. The market thinks the latter is more likely right now. I can't just like when I bought AAPL in 1997 and won't dream that Apple would become so profitable. Faith in SJ and got lucky. You guys are testing my faith in TC's team.
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Post by Mav on Jan 27, 2013 14:54:07 GMT -8
IGZO.
No way in hell will those fantastical claims by Sharp bear fruit for third-party applications (use by other OEMs) at minimum. But if Apple can add an hour in real-world use time because of the display tech, dare I hope for two hours?, that'd be awesome.
Foxconn and Apple are kind of owners of Sharp in a way. So the focus is hoping Apple can "help" the troubled display company ramp IGZO with good yield and same-as-prior-displays-reliability for its purposes. It's really not so much a matter of beating Samsung to anything (Samsung is its own incredibly formidable do-it-all in-house tech development center), it's about Apple staying on the cutting edge of technologies that users can appreciate. Kind of benchmarking and not benchmarking at the same time, y'know?
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Post by Mav on Jan 27, 2013 14:56:10 GMT -8
I don't know how you can see where Apple will be in 5 years. They could keep on growing for many years or they could experience a drastic slowdown and the company loses the magic that it had under Jobs. The market thinks the latter is more likely right now. I can't just like when I bought AAPL in 1997 and won't dream that Apple would become so profitable. Faith in SJ and got lucky. You guys are testing my faith in TC's team. Mace, why would you ever let ANYONE mess with your own personal conviction and research? From Joe Schmo dissing Apple on Diablo 3 multiplayer to iPad having a shocking reversal and telling everyone she's leaving AAPL and this board forever or something.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2013 15:21:11 GMT -8
I'm thinking the massive run of the overall share market has actually added to the fall in AAPL this month.
Seeing your AAPL investment decline is one thing, but seeing EVERYTHING else at 5 year highs is another.
Whereas some would have likely stayed in AAPL if the general markets were performing averagely, I can see some of those same people jumping ship to other stocks in momentum plays to try and claw there AAPL losses back.
The scary thought is that this is probably what institutions are doing.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2013 15:30:34 GMT -8
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