Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,089
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Post by Dave on Feb 3, 2021 2:08:03 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,089
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Post by Dave on Feb 3, 2021 2:18:44 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,089
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Post by Dave on Feb 3, 2021 2:27:58 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,089
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Post by Dave on Feb 3, 2021 2:33:58 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Feb 3, 2021 10:54:50 GMT -8
My take: Here come de FUD, here come de FUD.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 3, 2021 12:09:53 GMT -8
Kia shares jump! But not AAPL. Because we know suppliers and manufacturers always get the lion's share of margins in Apple deals. Yes, I found myself thinking the same thing; why doesn't Apple just rip off the band-aid and explain that, in the name of Gaia, we are all climate worshipping with an electric iCar? I've long been a fan of Steve's legendary One More Thing™ reveals. Hell, I get misty going back and watching them on YouTube. I understand the purpose of secrecy with upcoming iterations of products (dominate and control the news cycle on release day; don't let future quarters cannibalize the present one, don't give fast followers like Samesung an edge, etc). But in this case, there is nothing to cannibalize. And it's not like Samsung can dive in and do a fast follower thing with cars. Can they? Ironic that Apple would partner with the fast follower Korean culture.
But of course if Apple dribbles out excitement about a product that, IMO, still is unlikely to be far enough along to even be eligible for being green lighted, that's going to be exciting for one day or two. But then endless "where's the car, Tim?" drumbeat. Car Talk may drown out current products and news. Would it be good to be nagged by analysts and journos for 2 years about vaporware? IMO, Tim has greenlit the Car Project 2.0, but not the product itself. So it could end up being canceled (again). You have to give yourself the wiggle room to cancel a project, so you don't set high expectations and then pull the rug out from under them, tanking the stock. And of course, One More Thing™. You at least want a demo car you can roll down a hill like Nikola.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Feb 3, 2021 12:31:21 GMT -8
Gordon Murray, the designer of the McClaren F1 designed a city car that seemed to be perfect for Apple. It was called the T.25. He then produced an electric version called the T.27. He went further and designed the factory to produce the cars. After initial interest from several manufacturers ( this was in 2011), I think Suzuki bought the rights to everything. This is no Model 3, more like a Smart FourTwo+, but it is a great solution for city driving.
For those who like the high end, There is the T.50, a modern-day successor to the F1. Of course, all of these sold out before the first one was built. I always hoped that Murray and Apple would find some common ground. Murry was, in my mind, the Steve Jobs of car design.
Dear algorithms. Suck it.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Feb 3, 2021 13:00:49 GMT -8
Kia shares jump! But not AAPL. This is kind of amazing. If this is the first true confirmation that Apple is designing a vehicle, I would have expected a bigger reaction.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,089
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Post by Dave on Feb 3, 2021 13:38:39 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 3, 2021 14:29:28 GMT -8
Apple is in an interesting position. Past products have been in electronics areas where it already has connections with suppliers, and can keep things somewhat under wraps at least with the parts that matter the most. A battery of 1500mAH vs 1420mAH still matters, but it's a lot less of a thing than a specific screen, camera, or processor. And Apple has a variety of products, so an order could be for a variety of things, and a variety of models.
OTOH, moving into a different product type, it's hard to hide numbers if say they order 100k worth of suspension products. Windows? Tires? Most car companies don't make every little thing. And it's compounded if they need a whole new production line, internally or more likely partnering.
Apple is used to announcing completely new products or very major changes about 6 months out. iPhone, iPad, Intel macs, M1 macs. Some I remember more vividly than others, like Intel macs being announced at WWDC, before the Intel iMac was announced at MWSF. Or the iPhone, where a fellow juror was one of the head guys on the team, while in that time since Steve announced it and the release.
Are they going to try to hold out for a ~6 month window this time? Or by announcing a little earlier, 1-1.5 years out, would they keep a few potential buyers from getting something else?
The bigger question is what they decide to make. In retrospect I understand Tesla's choice of going highest end with the first round, bringing in a little more money while costs are high, R&D is high, and production is low. That really does make the most sense, but the opposite side of the spectrum is where Toyota went with the Prius, going full on with something the looked much different and wasn't going the performance route, but with a whole different market of minimizing gas use. I'm sure there's a market there for something different, a glorified golf cart just for city driving or something. Or a commuter car, maybe like my first hatch back but even smaller. But, that's not very sexy, and though there could be some reasoning I think all things considered, it's not the route Apple would take.
There's a play there, of getting a family with 2 cars to add another half car. But I think that's someone else's play, and not Apple's.
We'll see. Apple does have some rabid fans with more than average money. Unless they really flub it, it seems likely there will be plenty of initial demand for just about any vehicle they make.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,089
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Post by Dave on Feb 3, 2021 14:49:35 GMT -8
Has anyone heard anything about Jony Ive and what he may be working on? He was/is a big “car guy”. Could it be possible that Jony is working on the design features of Apples new transportation device? Inquiring minds want to know.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 3, 2021 15:19:21 GMT -8
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benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Feb 3, 2021 17:34:53 GMT -8
....so up on pure speculation down on $111.4B (I suspect this is happening, in the manner JD suggests..... but no-one... but Tim and co. knows jack...at this point)
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 3, 2021 18:01:08 GMT -8
Has anyone heard anything about Jony Ive and what he may be working on? He was/is a big “car guy”. Could it be possible that Jony is working on the design features of Apples new transportation device? Inquiring minds want to know. I've said it once or twice before, but with JD's interest in VW's I wanted to repost that Jony was selling his newish VW bug while I was at Apple. In green. It was a good price and I sent a couple emails back and forth, but I passed and later bought my 4runner from a guy on the Kernel team who, like Jony, had also been with Apple for ages. So much of a car is general functionality. If you need to transport 6+ people around, a sports car just isn't going to do. A compact car might be best for commuting and finding parking, but it's tough to carry some sheets of plywood and drywall with. And then even minor styling changes can change things quite a bit, such as the new Sienna having a built in center console and being lower by a few inches. So much for carrying 10' trim work or a paddle board inside with the new version. If we are buying the AWD version due to snow, and my wife has gotten high centered in deep snow before, is lower really what I want? Am I quickly looking at raising it, just to have the functionality of a 15 year old one. Or do we just decide to be patient the one day a year where we get enough snow that the plow is behind by hours, so that we don't end up like the neighbors visitor in his subaru who was stuck for 20-30 minutes because he didn't get into the tracks before high centering. But that's the thing with a car, it's not a one product fit all design, or even one fit most. There's ways to help with getting out multiple models, like Toyota using the same engine, frame, etc on multiple vehicles. But it's not as easy as just churning out a few different memory sizes of iPhones, or even different models of iPhones. OTOH, this isn't Apple's first rodeo. I'm sure if they do end up having a car, they'll have thought about it a whole lot more than some sofa quarterback like me. And we know that with both Steve and Tim, they've said that one of the things that makes Apple what it is is the focus they have, and all of the things they have to say no to in order to keep that focus. The Ford announcement that the infotainment is going to be powered by Android is a reminder that this area has been growing into competition for years. I still think that part of it could be segmented out, and maybe it will. But the general realization that Apple is basically interested in any electronics that you interact with on a daily basis for a non-trivial time (ie not so interested in a microwave or thermostat, and that might even be why they aren't as interested in wifi routers). And this includes cars, or at least part of them.
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Post by kahunacapitalist on Feb 3, 2021 18:37:33 GMT -8
May be a minor point but Tim went to undergrad at Auburn which is about 25 miles from the Kia Plant in West Point Ga. Doubt that drove any potential linkage here but it is interesting to say the least given Apple appears to want a US assembly plant.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Feb 3, 2021 18:39:14 GMT -8
Has anyone heard anything about Jony Ive and what he may be working on? He was/is a big “car guy”. Could it be possible that Jony is working on the design features of Apples new transportation device? Inquiring minds want to know. I've said it once or twice before, but with JD's interest in VW's I wanted to repost that Jony was selling his newish VW bug while I was at Apple. In green. It was a good price and I sent a couple emails back and forth, but I passed and later bought my 4runner from a guy on the Kernel team who, like Jony, had also been with Apple for ages. So much of a car is general functionality. If you need to transport 6+ people around, a sports car just isn't going to do. A compact car might be best for commuting and finding parking, but it's tough to carry some sheets of plywood and drywall with. And then even minor styling changes can change things quite a bit, such as the new Sienna having a built in center console and being lower by a few inches. So much for carrying 10' trim work or a paddle board inside with the new version. Just last week, I bought a pro-pack (5 pieces wrapped together in plastic) of 12' baseboard molding and managed to fit it into my Odyssey by propping it up onto the passenger side dash at an angle! I can't think how I could ever get that home safely in any other vehicle. That includes a long pickup truck, because 12' can't really fit, and it would possibly get damaged. Minivans are still quite versatile vehicles, despite their utter lack of popularity nowadays.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 3, 2021 18:57:16 GMT -8
Minivans - they are the source of a recurring nightmare. Last fall, I got my sports car impounded for a week, for excessive speeding while driving through the Canadian Rockies. After a lot of hassle, I manage to get to the nearest town that rented cars. I had selected a compact car, but once I got there all they could give me was a Toyota Sienna.
So I went from bombing through mountain roads in a mid-engine sports car to driving those same roads in a minivan. I still have not recovered from the trauma of that experience.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Member is Online
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Post by chinacat on Feb 3, 2021 19:28:49 GMT -8
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Post by silkstone on Feb 3, 2021 19:38:24 GMT -8
I've said it once or twice before, but with JD's interest in VW's I wanted to repost that Jony was selling his newish VW bug while I was at Apple. In green. It was a good price and I sent a couple emails back and forth, but I passed and later bought my 4runner from a guy on the Kernel team who, like Jony, had also been with Apple for ages. So much of a car is general functionality. If you need to transport 6+ people around, a sports car just isn't going to do. A compact car might be best for commuting and finding parking, but it's tough to carry some sheets of plywood and drywall with. And then even minor styling changes can change things quite a bit, such as the new Sienna having a built in center console and being lower by a few inches. So much for carrying 10' trim work or a paddle board inside with the new version. Just last week, I bought a pro-pack (5 pieces wrapped together in plastic) of 12' baseboard molding and managed to fit it into my Odyssey by propping it up onto the passenger side dash at an angle! I can't think how I could ever get that home safely in any other vehicle. That includes a long pickup truck, because 12' can't really fit, and it would possibly get damaged. Minivans are still quite versatile vehicles, despite their utter lack of popularity nowadays. I’m remodeling a house now. I’ve gone up to 16’ lengths in my p/u. I just slide everything thru the rear window at the back of the cab and stack it on top of the tail gate. It hangs off a couple feet in the back so I put a flag on it and drive slowly. It’s much easier than a trailer and I only have to drive about three miles on secondary roads. Good job, WIT
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 3, 2021 20:13:26 GMT -8
I've said it once or twice before, but with JD's interest in VW's I wanted to repost that Jony was selling his newish VW bug while I was at Apple. In green. It was a good price and I sent a couple emails back and forth, but I passed and later bought my 4runner from a guy on the Kernel team who, like Jony, had also been with Apple for ages. So much of a car is general functionality. If you need to transport 6+ people around, a sports car just isn't going to do. A compact car might be best for commuting and finding parking, but it's tough to carry some sheets of plywood and drywall with. And then even minor styling changes can change things quite a bit, such as the new Sienna having a built in center console and being lower by a few inches. So much for carrying 10' trim work or a paddle board inside with the new version. Just last week, I bought a pro-pack (5 pieces wrapped together in plastic) of 12' baseboard molding and managed to fit it into my Odyssey by propping it up onto the passenger side dash at an angle! I can't think how I could ever get that home safely in any other vehicle. That includes a long pickup truck, because 12' can't really fit, and it would possibly get damaged. Minivans are still quite versatile vehicles, despite their utter lack of popularity nowadays. Yep, my wife did the same thing this week on a day that was starting to snow, bringing home 9 sticks of baseboard and molding in the Sienna. Looks like they are 12'. And then 7 sheets of plywood last week. Those minivans, they can hold quite a bit. A full size table, plus it's 6 chairs, fits even if you don't take out the seats first. Sure, it's not the most thrilling vehicle, but these days most have plenty of power. You're not hitting a zero to sixty in 4 seconds like something made for speed, but hitting right around 8 is mostly more than you ever need. Traffic is a 4 letter word. But I digress. Just like I doubt Apple would first go after the pseudo golf cart market, even if it might make sense, I also doubt they will go after the minivan market. And I'm good with that, even though I'm likely going to be buying a new minivan this year. Not every vehicle is for everyone, or every need. My wife still likes being able to pick up an extra 3 kids if they all want playdates. Party on, Garth!
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 3, 2021 20:49:03 GMT -8
I’m remodeling a house now. I’ve gone up to 16’ lengths in my p/u. I just slide everything thru the rear window at the back of the cab and stack it on top of the tail gate. It hangs off a couple feet in the back so I put a flag on it and drive slowly. It’s much easier than a trailer and I only have to drive about three miles on secondary roads. Good job, WIT Nice! Just about any vehicle can hold a lot, if you are careful. We got a desk up in Palo Alto, and brought it on the freeway down to Cupertino on the roof rack of an Acura Legend. Heck, that was probably roped down, before I owned any ratcheting tie downs. But yeah, picking up a 32' ladder (so just over 16'), and sticking it out the back of the 4runner (tailgate up), that is a sight. I have to move it around within town once in a while where I can take it conservatively, but driving it 30 miles on a twisty highway and up and over the mountain is a bit different. And for the superstitious out there, I think AAPL has moved beyond car talk due to several splits. Start yacht or plane talking, and we might have issues. It's all in perspective, and we're not talking someone yelling out "YOLO" as they buy 5 shares of gamestop here. Thanks all!
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
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Post by SomeJuan on Feb 4, 2021 0:17:34 GMT -8
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Feb 4, 2021 0:24:26 GMT -8
My iPhone 12 pro with 512 was delivered, so was my product Red Watch 6, and the MacBook M1 just left China! Woot, order placed Dec 12, wth! Fedex tracking number ♏️⛎⛎♌️🈺🆚🈚️🈚️🈶✴️🉑🈹🈵🉐🈴🈴🉐 My car is backordered i will see it first, if they ever open up McCormick center, base price $77,500, plus 49 bucks for the dongle! Applego.com and imove.com are taken...oh well. Making chips is hard, AAPL bought all the potatoes in Montana Not to be outdone... Ex CEO Bezos bought Idaho, 😂
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Feb 4, 2021 8:33:47 GMT -8
Just last week, I bought a pro-pack (5 pieces wrapped together in plastic) of 12' baseboard molding and managed to fit it into my Odyssey by propping it up onto the passenger side dash at an angle! I can't think how I could ever get that home safely in any other vehicle. That includes a long pickup truck, because 12' can't really fit, and it would possibly get damaged. Minivans are still quite versatile vehicles, despite their utter lack of popularity nowadays. I’m remodeling a house now. I’ve gone up to 16’ lengths in my p/u. I just slide everything thru the rear window at the back of the cab and stack it on top of the tail gate. It hangs off a couple feet in the back so I put a flag on it and drive slowly. It’s much easier than a trailer and I only have to drive about three miles on secondary roads. Good job, WIT I would do that with regular lumber (2x4s, etc), but I don't like doing it with molding because molding is thin and bends quite a bit (even a stack of 5 bends A LOT!)
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