Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 5, 2021 3:10:14 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Feb 5, 2021 3:20:53 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 5, 2021 7:24:42 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Feb 5, 2021 7:57:20 GMT -8
Those of us who were around for the Samsung/Google vs. Apple lawsuits remember the sudden emergence of multiple new tech news sites and the constant flood of "Apple id Doomed" stories. I remember sending an email to one of the sites asking, "Did Samsung pay you to write this FUD?" and getting the short reply "yes". As the faceoff with Facebook takes shape, I expect to see the same offensive offensive. One silver lining was that they drove the stock price from 700 to under 400 giving a dividend yield of over 3%. at the time a 2.5% mortgage was not unheard of.
The opportunity was obvious. I took it and emerged $500k to the good. Given current interest rates, a similar opportunity may be emerging. It might be time to crawl back out on the ledge.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Feb 5, 2021 8:06:19 GMT -8
Those of us who were around for the Samsung/Google vs. Apple lawsuits remember the sudden emergence of multiple new tech news sites and the constant flood of "Apple id Doomed" stories. I remember sending an email to one of the sites asking, "Did Samsung pay you to write this FUD?" and getting the short reply "yes". As the faceoff with Facebook takes shape, I expect to see the same offensive offensive. One silver lining was that they drove the stock price from 700 to under 400 giving a dividend yield of over 3%. at the time a 2.5% mortgage was not unheard of. The opportunity was obvious. I took it and emerged $500k to the good. Given current interest rates, a similar opportunity may be emerging. It might be time to crawl back out on the ledge. Are mortgages below 2.5% right now? In any case, the dividend yield is now about 0.6%. Even if they decide to raise the dividend by 25% (much more likely that they will raise it by at most 12% this time around to 0.23), it'll still only be 0.75% or so. So I'm wondering how the opportunity is "similar", I must be missing something!
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Feb 5, 2021 8:32:16 GMT -8
I am just looking ahead. when we were at 700 pre-split, it didn't seem possible that FUD could drive us down to under 400. I realize we would have to be under 32 before this opportunity would be possible, I just felt like things are moving in that direction. Let's hope that the market is wiser than it was back then.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 5, 2021 8:35:16 GMT -8
Those of us who were around for the Samsung/Google vs. Apple lawsuits remember the sudden emergence of multiple new tech news sites and the constant flood of "Apple id Doomed" stories. I remember sending an email to one of the sites asking, "Did Samsung pay you to write this FUD?" and getting the short reply "yes". As the faceoff with Facebook takes shape, I expect to see the same offensive offensive. One silver lining was that they drove the stock price from 700 to under 400 giving a dividend yield of over 3%. at the time a 2.5% mortgage was not unheard of. The opportunity was obvious. I took it and emerged $500k to the good. Given current interest rates, a similar opportunity may be emerging. It might be time to crawl back out on the ledge. Are mortgages below 2.5% right now? In any case, the dividend yield is now about 0.6%. Even if they decide to raise the dividend by 25% (much more likely that they will raise it by at most 12% this time around to 0.23), it'll still only be 0.75% or so. So I'm wondering how the opportunity is "similar", I must be missing something! I think the "advantage" is if the stock gets cut (temporarily) by a similar magnitude. Halving the stock doubles that potential divy to 1.5%. I'm borrowing at rates less than that, but it's not a fixed rate and I haven't seen fixed mortgage rates that low. OTOH, sometimes opportunities don't present themselves again, at least not exactly the same. As much as I like having rolled my 401k into a Roth, paying taxes on ~100k, and now having it decently into the 7 figure level, that exact history is unlikely to repeat with AAPL. Instead you have to try to game the GME There's some things you learn and use just one time. There's others you learn and use again and again. And there's some that you learn and use repetitively, but it just seems so intuitive that you don't even think about it much.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 5, 2021 9:50:12 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 5, 2021 11:15:19 GMT -8
I keep seeing predictions that negative interest rates are a possibility. I’m not sure about the consequences of such a move and how it would affect the markets. More speculation?
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duckpins
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Post by duckpins on Feb 5, 2021 11:36:17 GMT -8
"I am just looking ahead. when we were at 700 pre-split, it didn't seem possible that FUD could drive us down to under 400. I realize we would have to be under 32 before this opportunity would be possible, I just felt like things are moving in that direction. Let's hope that the market is wiser than it was back t"
At 700 Jobs had died recently, the 4s was the last phone with his DNA. Tim Cook missed the move to large phones, that cost Apple over 100 million phones in sales. Those factors might have informed the downturn not the mistaken law suit against Samsung. Jobs was pissed at GOOG not Samsung. Never understood that law suit. Samsung says they reverse engineered the phone. Is that illegal? At any case Samsung got what they wanted. The only problem with their phones is the OS for me. I love the Note but lost an Android.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 5, 2021 12:49:17 GMT -8
I keep seeing predictions that negative interest rates are a possibility. I’m not sure about the consequences of such a move and how it would affect the markets. More speculation? It's happened in other countries. I'm not global enough to know the benefits or issues that those rates caused there directly. But my understanding is that it also opens up some big arbitrage opportunities for those that can take advantage of it, say borrowing from France or the UK or whatever at under 0%, and putting it into US bonds for some positive figure. As long as you aren't worried about either collapsing, being called early, or limiting funds or leverage elsewhere, you'd want to go big time on this. But in the US, even with the benchmark at 0-.25%, nearly no one pays that. Instead big banks borrow at that, but get 2.5-3%. Maybe down to 2% for a variable or shorter term loan. Make it less risky (ie backed with capital) and it gets lower. I'm paying 1.35% right now, and I think IB is advertising rates at 0.79%, though that might be starting at amounts over 1M, or even over 2-3M. They use a tiered system, so say the first 50k is at one rate, the next tranch at another, and so on. In most cases people aren't going to be paid to borrow, even with sub-zero rates. But it would boost borrowing even more, and have more people tempted by the arbitrage that borrowing at a low rate and getting more elsewhere provides. OTOH, the FED is aiming for inflation just under 2%, so it all depends on what it takes to get there, but ideally not exceed that rate too much.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 5, 2021 16:39:10 GMT -8
I keep seeing predictions that negative interest rates are a possibility. I’m not sure about the consequences of such a move and how it would affect the markets. More speculation? It's happened in other countries. In other countries, they eat cats. - Frank Barone If you want to remain the world's reserve currency, there's only so much you can devalue it before that ends. I'd say zero, not sub-zero rates is that point. And all of this ridiculous printing and sending out checks is really going to put the US Treasury in a box. The "two weeks years to flatten the curve" shutdown and Modern Monetary Theory is a greater threat to the US than covid is.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 5, 2021 17:01:45 GMT -8
It's happened in other countries. In other countries, they eat cats. - Frank Barone If you want to remain the world's reserve currency, there's only so much you can devalue it before that ends. I'd say zero, not sub-zero rates is that point. And all of this ridiculous printing and sending out checks is really going to put the US Treasury in a box. The "two weeks years to flatten the curve" shutdown and Modern Monetary Theory is a greater threat to the US than covid is. True. It's a matter of being patient. 0-.25 will get you there, but not always in an instant. It's always a strange concept that the US can be the world's reserve currency, and yet it's lagging the Euro. (But I don't know the history, or the factor used at the creation of the Euro, and things aren't THAT expensive there) I don't really see interest rates going any lower, especially with "free money" being thrown about. I'd like it if more of this cash was focused on the specific industries that are affected most, but there I go, trying to be logical about it again. (EDIT: FWIW, the book Lords of Finance talks about the time leading up to and after 1929, and basically how things were screwed up. Not the best book IMO, but it was interesting in ways, like how Germany played the system a bit on retributions from WWI, and back in a time before the US was the world's reserve currency. If anyone is interested in the book, and can't find it at their library, I'm happy to send it your way.)
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 6, 2021 3:42:15 GMT -8
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