SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Feb 9, 2021 20:14:25 GMT -8
I've been driving my EV for several months now and honestly can't imagine ever owning another ICE mobile. It's superior in just about every way. I have no doubt that in ten years EVs will be utterly commonplace. Thankfully we now have an administration committed to developing and expanding the national infrastructure to support this transition to cleaner transport. Not to mention all the jobs that come with such an undertaking... And if Apple is getting into the game, well, that's icing on the cake. I've thought about it for a while and I've come to the conclusion that it is quite possible, even probable, that there will be fewer jobs. Overall, EVs are more efficient than ICE vehicles. I am not using "efficient" solely to describe fuel efficiency, but overall in terms of efficiency of getting the job (moving people/things from place A to place B) done. The simplest example is getting the fuel to the vehicle ... for EV, the fuel travels in a pressurized pipe (few employees) or windmill or solar or whatever, then on a big wire, then a medium wire, and then a small wire (zero incremental employees). For ICE, the fuel travels in a big pipe and then a small pipe (lots of employees), then into a giant tank (more employees), then to a port (lots of employees, mostly union ones) then into a pipe, and onto a BIG ship (a few more more employees), then to another port (more high paid employees), then to a refinery (more employees), then into tanks, and then into trains and trucks (ALL with tons of employees) that travel across the country to distribute the fuel. All those jobs disappear when replaced with wires of varying thickness. Now add to that the fact that EVs have fewer parts, and MANY fewer moving parts that wear out, and you lose a whole bunch more jobs. Just think, all those alternator companies, poof, disappear, along with their thousands of jobs. And all those oil change guys, there are well over 7,000 oil change shops in the USA, each with 4 to 10 employees. They literally all disappear when ICE goes away. And because there are fewer moving parts, there is less need for mechanics, so all those jobs disappear. And, once true autonomous driving happens, accidents will occur MUCH less often, so most of those body shops (close to 60,000 of them) disappear ... along with all those jobs. Mark, as Horace D. says... Disruption in is a sneaky cat... they spring upon you... or he meant it... We are on the cusp...
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crispin
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KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Feb 9, 2021 20:26:27 GMT -8
I've been driving my EV for several months now and honestly can't imagine ever owning another ICE mobile. It's superior in just about every way. I have no doubt that in ten years EVs will be utterly commonplace. Thankfully we now have an administration committed to developing and expanding the national infrastructure to support this transition to cleaner transport. Not to mention all the jobs that come with such an undertaking... And if Apple is getting into the game, well, that's icing on the cake. I've thought about it for a while and I've come to the conclusion that it is quite possible, even probable, that there will be fewer jobs. Overall, EVs are more efficient than ICE vehicles. I am not using "efficient" solely to describe fuel efficiency, but overall in terms of efficiency of getting the job (moving people/things from place A to place B) done. The simplest example is getting the fuel to the vehicle ... for EV, the fuel travels in a pressurized pipe (few employees) or windmill or solar or whatever, then on a big wire, then a medium wire, and then a small wire (zero incremental employees). For ICE, the fuel travels in a big pipe and then a small pipe (lots of employees), then into a giant tank (more employees), then to a port (lots of employees, mostly union ones) then into a pipe, and onto a BIG ship (a few more more employees), then to another port (more high paid employees), then to a refinery (more employees), then into tanks, and then into trains and trucks (ALL with tons of employees) that travel across the country to distribute the fuel. All those jobs disappear when replaced with wires of varying thickness. Now add to that the fact that EVs have fewer parts, and MANY fewer moving parts that wear out, and you lose a whole bunch more jobs. Just think, all those alternator companies, poof, disappear, along with their thousands of jobs. And all those oil change guys, there are well over 7,000 oil change shops in the USA, each with 4 to 10 employees. They literally all disappear when ICE goes away. And because there are fewer moving parts, there is less need for mechanics, so all those jobs disappear. And, once true autonomous driving happens, accidents will occur MUCH less often, so most of those body shops (close to 60,000 of them) disappear ... along with all those jobs. Yes, and as with switchboard operators and buggy whip manufacturers, the vast majority of these workers will transition to something else in the future. It's easy to extrapolate the worst case scenario whereby every job remotely connected to ICE vehicles will be in danger, but that of course will not be the reality in our lifetimes. Just about every half-decent mechanic alive today will have job security for several decades at least. And this doesn't take into account the staggering number of jobs to be created to support this new EV infrastructure. We're looking at a virtually unprecedented overhaul of our aging national power grid just for a start. These will be plentiful and well-paid positions that ought to be mighty tempting to any minimum wage grease monkey at the local Jiffy Lube willing to train up. So no, the inferred caution around jobs doesn't hold much weight, and it's pretty obvious where the puck is going.
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Feb 9, 2021 20:27:53 GMT -8
Lstream, Impressive... but 200kw is needed. $125,000, not so much, though styling is good. Rivian.com is promising 180 kw in near future, still lagging and maybe 2023. AAPl, perhaps 250kw 2024 mit meinem Freund'
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crispin
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KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Feb 9, 2021 20:34:55 GMT -8
Just wow. That's a blazing fast charge rate. The 270kW charger pumps the 93kWh battery to 80% in 22 minutes... sheesh, completely smokes anything I've had the pleasure to use.
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Feb 9, 2021 20:56:37 GMT -8
Crispen,
Horse n buggy analogy... it took twenty plus years for blacksmiths and farriers to find new work. Yes ICE mechanics will still breathe life, not in 20 years, rare as hens teeth...
My ‘70 Mustang ragtop, which i foolishly sold, will still need an ICE mechanic. F&$k i am stupid... one of 300 with Boss 302!
Making due with a Toyota RAV4 AWD, not complaining, nice ride.' Specially here in Chicago.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 9, 2021 21:04:34 GMT -8
It isn’t needed. These things don’t require a certain wattage. Instead, a charge time is specified at a particular wattage.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 9, 2021 21:29:35 GMT -8
Unfortunately it doesn't really. I think most of your orders were custom, and if not they were slow to become available. That wouldn't show a delivery speed-up through a shipping tweak. But it is awesome that they can do that concierge delivery, and I like how it tells you if it's available at your local Apple store. That's great, for speeding up things when they can be sped up. Enjoy all of your new toys. I've been putting off Watch purchases since it still seems extravagant. But it's time for a new iPhone for my wife, so maybe I just need to pick one up in addition to the uphill ski setup. As all the jewelry ads remind us, don't forget about Valentines! How does it not equivocate to actual. I do not have a single client in 30+ years that orders the base specs, zero. All want and need the higher end! This is the FIRST time in 30 years, we have to wait 3 months, ffs. Something is wrong. No disrespect meant. I must have not been clear in what I wanted to say. It is very helpful info in knowing general demand, at least on the BTO options. What it isn't helpful at was in seeing if my observation, about standard configs of machines that had caught up in demand already being in the shipped inventory and then having their address added, thus a tracking search shows it as shipped before it was ordered, is still happening these days as it was 14-14 years ago. Hopefully the BTO delays are more demand based than supply based. But I like your optimism about Q2, and I hope to join you on that though I'll feel even more solid on it as the quarter progresses.
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crispin
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KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Feb 9, 2021 22:06:00 GMT -8
Crispen, Horse n buggy analogy... it took twenty plus years for blacksmiths and farriers to find new work. Yes ICE mechanics will still breathe life, not in 20 years, rare as hens teeth... My ‘70 Mustang ragtop, which i foolishly sold, will still need an ICE mechanic. F&$k i am stupid... one of 300 with Boss 302! Making due with a Toyota RAV4 AWD, not complaining, nice ride.' Specially here in Chicago. My family employed farriers until last year when our last horse went off to the pasture of no return. Can’t say I’ve used a blacksmith recently, but I can attest that the farrier trade is still part of the economy more than 100 years after the Model T. And likewise, despite my enthusiasm for the EV future, I’m quite certain the transition will not render mechanics redundant within the short span of 20 years. All the same, they’d be smart to start studying battery-based power trains...
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Feb 9, 2021 23:53:43 GMT -8
Crispen, Horse n buggy analogy... it took twenty plus years for blacksmiths and farriers to find new work. Yes ICE mechanics will still breathe life, not in 20 years, rare as hens teeth... My ‘70 Mustang ragtop, which i foolishly sold, will still need an ICE mechanic. F&$k i am stupid... one of 300 with Boss 302! Making due with a Toyota RAV4 AWD, not complaining, nice ride.' Specially here in Chicago. My family employed farriers until last year when our last horse went off to the pasture of no return. Can’t say I’ve used a blacksmith recently, but I can attest that the farrier trade is still part of the economy more than 100 years after the Model T. And likewise, despite my enthusiasm for the EV future, I’m quite certain the transition will not render mechanics redundant within the short span of 20 years. All the same, they’d be smart to start studying battery-based power trains... Crispen, my wife owns a mare, chestnut, 16 hands..., we still depend on a farriers expertise. We are getting caught up in semantics, not my favorite game. I look from 50,000 feet, and five feet. I know which view offers me a glance at tomorrow. Sure is hell is not farriers as a trade! Good trades people will always do well, underscore good. I am not arguing that point. One in ten were blacksmiths 100 years ago, now it is.001 EV and Batteries and SOC. I will add solar HVAC trades, resource management (wood), plumbing... yep good trades, farrier, pfft
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 10, 2021 3:36:00 GMT -8
We shouldn’t overlook the elephant in the room. Where is all of this additional electricity going to come from? Electric Cars Will Challenge State Power GridsSo the cost of electricity will increase as the demand increases. As gasoline consumption declines the cost per gallon will also decline. Gasoline is not the only product that crude oil provides. Most of our modern world is dependent upon the products that come from crude oil. Refined products And remember that there is a tax on gasoline that provides the revenue to repair the highways. That must be replaced somehow. Just saying that the electric car may cause more problems than it can ever solve and cost more than it ever saves. PRODUCTS MADE FROM OIL AND NATURAL GAS
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Feb 10, 2021 8:45:45 GMT -8
We shouldn’t overlook the elephant in the room. Where is all of this additional electricity going to come from? Electric Cars Will Challenge State Power GridsSo the cost of electricity will increase as the demand increases. As gasoline consumption declines the cost per gallon will also decline. Gasoline is not the only product that crude oil provides. Most of our modern world is dependent upon the products that come from crude oil. Refined products And remember that there is a tax on gasoline that provides the revenue to repair the highways. That must be replaced somehow. Just saying that the electric car may cause more problems than it can ever solve and cost more than it ever saves. PRODUCTS MADE FROM OIL AND NATURAL GASPetro chemicals are not dead, our lives depend on them... Petro as a form of iMove©️ Is in the ICU unit...
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Feb 10, 2021 8:52:43 GMT -8
We shouldn’t overlook the elephant in the room. Where is all of this additional electricity going to come from? Electric Cars Will Challenge State Power GridsSo the cost of electricity will increase as the demand increases. As gasoline consumption declines the cost per gallon will also decline. Gasoline is not the only product that crude oil provides. Most of our modern world is dependent upon the products that come from crude oil. Refined products And remember that there is a tax on gasoline that provides the revenue to repair the highways. That must be replaced somehow. Just saying that the electric car may cause more problems than it can ever solve and cost more than it ever saves. PRODUCTS MADE FROM OIL AND NATURAL GASWe have a gift horse though, radiation, ala Solar. 350 watt panels at 22% efficacy rate, and climbing.
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Feb 10, 2021 9:45:50 GMT -8
4aapl, No catalytic converter in EV, there goes the neighborhood, and platinum prices. Good times. In ten years kids will be asking why we drove ICE. Dad, what was an 8 track? Regards, HG Wells The article talked more about palladium and another metal. But back when mine was stolen, it was high platinum prices that made it more common. OTOH, I don't see kids asking why we drove ICE, just 10 years from now. It will be a migration, and will take many decades. Even if all new cars 5 years from now were electric, without huge incentives there wouldn't be super quick turnover. And really, there's a lot of energy and cost built into a car. In general, just like for most large appliances, it makes sense environmentally to have it have a long lifetime. Fixing one thing on our dishwasher has now doubled it's life. Nice to get 15 years from the appliance, instead of just 7. A quick google search gives the average age of a car in the US at 11.9 years. That makes the average lifespan nearly 22 years. Ok, i tend to exaggerate, my point is still poignant! ©️®️™️
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