chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 13, 2021 6:08:18 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 13, 2021 8:33:20 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Feb 14, 2021 7:11:12 GMT -8
I have been working on a systems dynamics model of the stock market for several years. It has proven to be more complex than I anticipated. It was easy enough to capture the impact of new information and the subsequent momentum-driven oscillations, but now I want to expand it to include the effects of the competition for investor's capital. From what I can tell, most fundamental analysis acts as if there is an unlimited amount of money to invest. As the Fed floods the market with cheap money, this may be the case, but as I struggle to understand the lack of reaction to earnings, one possibility is that the available money was chasing other opportunities. Remember in the run-up to 2000, the expression "chips on dips"? You could almost see the money flowing into Apple when the market dropped. To validate the model, I need a way to track the amount of money available to buy stocks. I am not an economist. Does anyone know where I can find this? To be specific, I am looking for the amount of liquid cash (including margin) that can be put to work at any given time. I think we can ignore home equity because it takes several months to access it. If I learn anything from this, I will share it with the board.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,093
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Post by Dave on Feb 14, 2021 7:37:17 GMT -8
It’s the FUD Bud (sorry, I couldn’t resist). I can only speak for myself but there seems to be a great deal of uncertainty about the future and I think that one of the ways many people respond to fud would be to wait and see, looking for direction. I know that in the past normally I would be buying leaps with each dip, especially after this past earnings report, but this time I’m having trouble letting go of the cash. So much of investing is based on emotion and the emotion of the day is fear. Hopefully tomorrow will be different. Just a thought.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 14, 2021 8:33:30 GMT -8
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Post by nwjade on Feb 14, 2021 12:37:03 GMT -8
Thanks for the links, you may want to correct the week ending price close and percent change...
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 14, 2021 13:41:05 GMT -8
Thanks for the links, you may want to correct the week ending price close and percent change... Thanks, fixed. Must have been in a hurry.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 14, 2021 16:05:11 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,625
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 14, 2021 21:49:07 GMT -8
Sometimes Costco has Apple items on sale at the end of their cycle, just before a new version. If not then, it's often at least a sign that there is enough inventory in the system, since they normally work with vendors on those promotions. The AirPods, both normal and the pro, are discounted ($20/$30) right now. They have them just inside the door, and the $89.99 price seemed downright reasonable...for a set of headphones...that I don't need. It seems like marketing has worked. (At least that's the price I remember, but on Apple's site the AirPods with a charging case are $159. If that's what Costco was selling, that's a heck of a discount, 44%. Online at Costco, they show the Pros are discounted $30, to bring them to $189.99. A google search doesn't find the current price I remember, but it does say they had them for $100 around xmas, so a further $10 discount is possible) (OTOH, the $20 wireless headphones an Amazon vendor gave me work fine for what they are, and the kids enjoyed them for a while)
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Feb 15, 2021 0:42:33 GMT -8
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