Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,093
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Post by Dave on Feb 22, 2021 2:46:03 GMT -8
It’s Monday morning again and the pre-market is red at -$2.03 at this moment. We may have another rough week ahead. What to Expect in the Markets This WeekConsumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment
This upcoming Tuesday Conference Board will release its Consumer Confidence Index and on Friday the University of Michigan will release its Consumer Sentiment Index. The two surveys attempt to get an idea of how U.S. consumers are feeling, albeit with slightly different methodologies, which is why their results may vary. Consumer confidence increased in January to 89.3 from 87.1 in December. Interestingly, this two point increase was due to a 5.5 point increase in the Consumer Expectations Index, how consumers think about short-term economic and business conditions, offset by an almost three point drop in the Present Situation Index, which is how consumers think things are doing right now. The University of Michigan released preliminary consumer sentiment numbers on Feb. 12, which indicated a drop from January. The decline in sentiment was concentrated in the measures of future expectations and in the consumer sentiment of households with incomes below $75,000 a year. The final reading will take into account more data from later in February. New Home Sales: Check Those Margins of Error
The Census Bureau reports U.S. New Home Sales for January this upcoming Wednesday. New home sales rose in December, both month over month and year over year, but by less than economists had expected. Existing home sales, which were released by the National Association of realtors on Feb. 19, showed an increase in sales, beating the fall that economists had expected. Note that, especially for initial figures released before revision in subsequent months, margins of error can be very large. For example, the December 2020 New Home Sales were 1.6% higher than those in November plus or minus 15.8%, and they were 15.2% higher than December 2019, plus or minus 17.2%. Both of these ranges intersect zero so, as it says in the census Bureau press release "there is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero." Readers, always check your error bars, especially on initial or preliminary numbers.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,093
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Post by Dave on Feb 22, 2021 3:01:59 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,093
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Post by Dave on Feb 22, 2021 3:20:47 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,093
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Post by Dave on Feb 22, 2021 7:02:21 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 22, 2021 7:41:19 GMT -8
Technically, the stock is broken and losing all support levels, for those who care about that.
From a fundamentals / historical perspective the PE can still contract further, so on a historical basis it's not yet "undervalued."
On the other hand, it's approaching oversold levels that have historically preceded a bounce (RSI 30) so this a place where we can hope for a turnaround.
Down 13% from it's top, which is a significant contraction.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,625
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 22, 2021 7:51:49 GMT -8
Hmmmm My understanding is that Macs are inherently safer, both in terms of fewer threats, but also the underlying design. The real thing is that nothing is absolute, and getting a user to click "Yes, install this thing you just downloaded from the internet", especially if you then put in your password, is nearly as bad and possibly even worse than someone having physical access. FWIW, most of the time once you have physical access, you can do whatever you want. I finally had a machine from a friend a few months ago that didn't allow this, since her husband had encrypted the HD, and she had been logging on as a guest for years. That system was bogged down, with the encryption, the main account running, and the guest account. It's slightly tougher now that Apple often uses non-standard connections on some of it's SSD drives, but anyone who deals with that often would have the adapter. Just as 'hobbyists" can buy the screwdriver tips for different applications. I just got my new set, which includes the security Torx 6 bit that ideally one needs for some of the Mac Minis, though a set of vice grips or the right sized flathead got me into it a few times previously. And as another FWIW, Apple is not alone in this. With the EPA or CA emissions rules on small engines a few years back, consumer level small engines like my smaller Husqvarna chainsaw put in strange spline (11 tip?) heads onto the carb adjusters. Like Ford's professional line at the 250 and above not having MPG levels, I assume the newer pro chainsaws still have normal adjusters without having to pop off these limiter heads. Fun times. AAPL bouncing around in tempting territory again. And options are a little tempting, with Jan '22 125-140's potentially yielding a 150% return on an underlying advance of only 10%. There's always a casino out there waiting to take your money, though there are plenty of other ways to get a little thrill by taking a little risk. But does it really move the needle, or just put you behind the next RV cruising along 395?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 22, 2021 8:24:40 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 22, 2021 9:10:42 GMT -8
Foxconn chairman says expects "limited impact" from chip shortage on clients The global spread of COVID-19 has increased demand for laptops, gaming consoles, and other electronics. This caused chip manufacturers to reallocate capacity away from the automotive sector, which was expecting a steep downturn.
The chairman of Apple Inc supplier Foxconn said on Saturday he expects his company and its clients will face only "limited impact" from a chip shortage that has rattled the global automotive and semiconductor industries.
"Since most of the customers we serve are large customers,they all have proper precautionary planning," said Liu Young-way, chairman of the manufacturing conglomerate formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd
"Therefore, the impact on these large customers is there,but limited," he told reporters.
Liu said he expected the company to do well in the first half of 2021, "especially as the pandemic is easing and demand is still being sustained."
The global spread of COVID-19 has increased demand for laptops, gaming consoles, and other electronics. This caused chip manufacturers to reallocate capacity away from the automotive sector, which was expecting a steep downturn.
Now, car manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG,General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co have cut output as chip capacity has shrunk.
Also Read | Renault and Stellantis cut some production as chip shortages bite
Counterpoint Research says the shortage has extended to the smartphone sector, with application processors, display driver chips, and power management chips all facing a crunch.
However, the research firm predicts Apple will face a minimal impact, due to its large size and its suppliers' tendency to prioritise it. Apple is Foxconn's largest customer.
Foxconn is looking at other areas for growth, including in electric vehicles (EVs), and Liu said their EV development platform MIH now had 736 partner companies participating.
He expected it would have two or three models to show by the fourth quarter, though did not expect EVs to make an obvious contribution to company earnings until 2023.
Liu also said the company was still looking for semiconductor fab purchase opportunities in Southeast Asia after not winning a bid to take over a stake in Malaysia-based 8-inch foundry house Silterra.
We have been keeping you up-to-date with information on the developments in India and the world that have a bearing on our health and wellbeing, our lives and livelihoods, during these difficult times. To enable wide dissemination of news that is in public interest, we have increased the number of articles that can be read free, and extended free trial periods. However, we have a request for those who can afford to subscribe: please do. As we fight disinformation and misinformation, and keep apace with the happenings, we need to commit greater resources to news gathering operations. We promise to deliver quality journalism that stays away from vested interest and political propaganda. www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/foxconn-chairman-says-expects-limited-impact-from-chip-shortage-on-clients/article33900131.ece
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 22, 2021 9:14:53 GMT -8
Maybe a false flag operation by Apple to ferret out leakers? Steve used to do that.
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Post by duckpins on Feb 22, 2021 12:10:49 GMT -8
"Technically, the stock is broken and losing all support levels, for those who care about that.From a fundamentals / historical perspective the PE can still contract further, so on a historical basis it's not yet "undervalued."On the other hand, it's approaching oversold levels that have historically preceded a bounce (RSI 30) so this a place where we can hope for a turnaround. Down 13% from it's top, which is a significant contraction."
The 7 day RSI is as low as it has been since after the covid crash. Gap down a few days ago which tend to be filled at some point. Closing in on the 100 day which has been the stopper for most recent sell offs. OLED is doing much worse on another monster earning beat and increase in dividends. This is similar to Sept. when after the great AUg. prices fell for tech as the TV shows talked about the rotation away from tech. The sell off will end at some point. Long options look good here to me as well. We will see if selling accelerates at the close or there is a rebound and tomorrow could be turnaround tuesday. Note the market irrationality with BA decline slightly after grounding yet more of their planes. BA is still off 50% from the precovid high. They are the Wells Fargo of airline stocks.
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Post by duckpins on Feb 22, 2021 12:31:16 GMT -8
Interesting day. GME is outperforming the market and money making companies. Shorts are down to 40%+ according to TD. The Buffet trade, sell AAPL buy Oil, drugs and Verizon is doing well. If you look at the Brick and mortar shorts there is clearly lots of buying to decrease the shorts positions which is in reality deleveraging. So that is probably a part of this logic inversion. I see a decline in short positions in Dillard, William Sonoma and others.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,625
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 22, 2021 13:07:44 GMT -8
I decided to pick up a few shares. A small chunk in the main account, and buy with dividend proceeds in a couple Roths, at around $126.2 with 5 minutes to go. I placed another order for 125.81 with a couple minutes to go, but while it jumped around a bit it didn't dip to that, then. I figured I'd pick up a little here, with a nice 20% upside if it runs to 150, but I'll also be ready to grab a much bigger chunk if the stock dips further down to 115-120. Dalio sure scattershot his message today, that some things are frothy/bubbly, but as a whole compared to 29/00 of 100, the market as a whole is only at 77. Bits and pieces of his info are everywhere, but the full article is at www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/ray-dalio-stock-market-bubble though I haven't fully read it yet.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 22, 2021 14:04:05 GMT -8
We’re flat from where we were 6 months ago, when they announced the split at the end of July. S&P is up 13% over the same 6 month time period.
Pretty disappointing.
I’ve had good experiences buying AAPL when it hits 30 RSI, so I am expecting a bounce soon.
On the other hand, every handful of years we totally go into a tailspin and all options are unsafe. Be careful out there.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,625
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 22, 2021 14:29:57 GMT -8
We’re flat from where we were 6 months ago, when they announced the split at the end of July. S&P is up 13% over the same 6 month time period. Pretty disappointing. I’ve had good experiences buying AAPL when it hits 30 RSI, so I am expecting a bounce soon. On the other hand, every handful of years we totally go into a tailspin and all options are unsafe. Be careful out there. Disappointing. But we've been up and down this road enough to know that AAPL rarely seems properly priced, while also understanding that it's forward looking rather than the here and now. Looking at the 3 and 5 year charts, and not taking into account changes in profit growth, AAPL has kept chugging along, getting a little ahead last August, but staying at a pretty good clip. And the slope is steeper the past 2 years than the previous 3, even on a log scale. schrts.co/STcHGXhdThat chart also shows the RSI at 35 (though if the stock opens flat tomorrow it should be at 34 or even 33). We can see that touching 30 has been pretty rare in the last 2 years, though it happened a little more often 3-5 years ago. IMO there is no absolute law that this is the bottom, as a big downturn will truck on lower. But, this is relatively lower than most times, and if trying to have some fun trading just a little, this likely isn't a bad time. But, this is also a quieter time of the year for AAPL, and with the variety of US and world events I could see Apple being even more conservative, waiting an extra couple weeks to announce things, when they are ready. Cautiously optimistic. Without news or much speculation, I could see AAPL staying in this area or even dipping further. There's one more month in this quarter, and then another until earnings, when they normally bump the dividend a bit. While I don't expect anything huge, sometimes people start speculating. Speaking of speculation, there's a lot out there on battery related issues in general. LODE, which I had some shares for a bit and sold on the peak a couple weeks ago, flew again last week on an announcement over them getting into lithium battery recycling. It's fun to watch these micro stocks sometimes. They only have 10 employees, and a year ago their market cap dropped below $10m. It's just a world of difference from a decent sized tech company, and so it's interesting to see how fluttery the price can be. On that lithium recycling announcement, it jumped from around $2 to $9.5, overnight. Crazy! Apple is a whole different beast. They may get a nice boost at some point when more info comes out. OTOH, one of the most bubbly areas right now seems to be mainly smaller companies related to EVs. There's a chance that the run in that arena will collapse at some point for anyone who doesn't have a true moat or profit margin advantage, while the race for marketshare from the incoming majors becomes a race to the bottom. It's like we've seen this game before, somewhere. Luckily Apple often manages to sidestep the fight.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 22, 2021 14:49:34 GMT -8
We’re flat from where we were 6 months ago, when they announced the split at the end of July. S&P is up 13% over the same 6 month time period. Pretty disappointing.
Well, only if you discount the incredible six months before that (double in price), but I guess that’s just the ordinary viewpoint of a dedicated long.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Feb 22, 2021 14:55:15 GMT -8
The one year return on AAPL is looking pretty solid from where I sit. Even better is the five year. Given the choice, I'd much rather it went up every day of every week, but I get my kicks from the long trend.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 22, 2021 20:04:27 GMT -8
We’re flat from where we were 6 months ago, when they announced the split at the end of July. S&P is up 13% over the same 6 month time period. Pretty disappointing.
Well, only if you discount the incredible six months before that (double in price), but I guess that’s just the ordinary viewpoint of a dedicated long. I've been an AAPL shareholder for 21 years, and I still am. But I am an AAPL shareholder because I'd like to enjoy continued outperformance over an S&P index fund. So when we lag the market for an extended period, it's disappointing.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 22, 2021 22:34:58 GMT -8
Well, only if you discount the incredible six months before that (double in price), but I guess that’s just the ordinary viewpoint of a dedicated long. I've been an AAPL shareholder for 21 years, and I still am. But I am an AAPL shareholder because I'd like to enjoy continued outperformance over an S&P index fund. So when we lag the market for an extended period, it's disappointing. I don't disagree with you...it *is* disappointing. But since my wife and I have been AAPL shareholders for 21 years as well, and are, like chinacat, dedicated longs...I'm always surprised that I've never gotten used to these occasional disappointing lags. Especially since they have invariably been followed by great catch-up periods...it's just a matter of outwaiting the irrational market. 😊
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 23, 2021 9:01:12 GMT -8
I've been an AAPL shareholder for 21 years, and I still am. But I am an AAPL shareholder because I'd like to enjoy continued outperformance over an S&P index fund. So when we lag the market for an extended period, it's disappointing. I don't disagree with you...it *is* disappointing. But since my wife and I have been AAPL shareholders for 21 years as well, and are, like chinacat, dedicated longs...I'm always surprised that I've never gotten used to these occasional disappointing lags. Especially since they have invariably been followed by great catch-up periods...it's just a matter of outwaiting the irrational market. 😊 They just had one of the best quarters in their history, despite the challenges of the current world-wide pandemic situation. As noted, the problem is not with Apple’s performance, but rather with the lack of appreciation by Mr. Market.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 23, 2021 11:18:23 GMT -8
I've been an AAPL shareholder for 21 years, and I still am. But I am an AAPL shareholder because I'd like to enjoy continued outperformance over an S&P index fund. So when we lag the market for an extended period, it's disappointing. I don't disagree with you...it *is* disappointing. But since my wife and I have been AAPL shareholders for 21 years as well, and are, like chinacat, dedicated longs...I'm always surprised that I've never gotten used to these occasional disappointing lags. Especially since they have invariably been followed by great catch-up periods...it's just a matter of outwaiting the irrational market. 😊 Not that I want to encourage you to try to time the market or anything, but the "buy when it feels like crap" mentality (which generally also matches the "buy when AAPL's RSI is crap" mantra that I try to use to verify my feeling) has worked pretty well with AAPL. I use it to buy a little more. In our case, that's going say 5% on margin. Nothing crazy, even if the absolute values these days are large. The tradeoff is that, unless I want to stay on margin forever, I need to sell a little at some point. Again, small relative amounts. But it keeps it a bit more entertaining, like a bump on a playground slide instead of just a straight shot. Or a hike with some turns and viewpoints, instead of just a constant grade and consistent scenery.
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