Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 23, 2021 2:31:17 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Feb 23, 2021 2:40:18 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Feb 23, 2021 3:59:20 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Feb 23, 2021 4:02:11 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 23, 2021 5:14:00 GMT -8
I’m seeing a lot of chatter about how the fear of rising interest rates is leading to this downturn in stocks, specifically tech stocks. Can anyone who understands this better than me provide an explanation?
As I understand it, an increase in interest rates is happening due to expectations about the economy improving, and because of this bonds are becoming a more attractive investment, leading to a deleveraging in stocks such as AAPL.
If macro forces such as extended low interest rates were partially responsible for the expansion of AAPL’s PE from the historic 15-20 range to the 35-40 range, this dynamic could help explain why the stock price is decreasing despite good earnings. Deleveraging and a flight to other asset classes could continue be happening because of macro factors and not based on Apple.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 23, 2021 7:11:23 GMT -8
A big gap down at the open, RSI is a little below the 30 mark and there is some support at $112.xx from last November. Should be a good time for a bounce maybe.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 23, 2021 7:16:53 GMT -8
The prices of everything seems to have increased because of the continuing shutdowns and the shortages that it has caused. You can easily see that raising the interest rates would slow some of the demand. But as always, I’m only guessing.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 23, 2021 7:22:07 GMT -8
That was a bit of a roller coaster!
Yahoo's daily range has the low at 120.08, but their chart shows 119.21. Either way, a quick fast dip, and volume is almost half of average, just 45 minutes into the day.
FWIW, the RSI was 28.something when the stock was around 120.3. So it dipped below 30. I'm always curious about those intraday RSI marks, and don't know a place that has them after the fact. I don't think the precise value matters that much, else I would just make an excel sheet to calculate it (my understanding is that while the standard is just 14 days, it's based on the proceeding days going back forever, so if you really want it precise you'd have a much bigger calculation). But seeing about what it was at the low (or high) of the day could be interesting.
For those bugged by the lack of a post-earnings run, looking at a couple other tech companies, AMZN and FB haven't made it above their early September peak. And with a little justice in the world, TSLA was down 12% today, and about 30% from its month-ago peak. These tech stocks also had this morning's plunge, to varying degrees. Though FB is actually green at the moment.
Interesting times. But it's needed, to keep things in check and to have things not get too frothy, and build up to a much larger reset.
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Post by macglenn on Feb 23, 2021 7:39:35 GMT -8
I picked up a few hundred shares of AAPL at 118.60. At the time, charts were frozen on my trading platform. Bought a bunch of LTHM also below where the charts recorded.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 23, 2021 7:44:06 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Feb 23, 2021 8:19:24 GMT -8
One way to look at investing is to minimize risk and maximize reward. Risk is hard to quantify, so we use the variance of the stock price as a proxy. When you are managing a portfolio of assets, you are trying to also look at the correlation between stock movements so that when one stock goes up the other goes down, reducing the risk of the overall portfolio, hence the constant advice to diversify. In order to compare assets, we need a common metric, so we settle on the rate of return. It is the rate of return and the asset's influence on the variance of the portfolio that governs a buy/sell decision. Look at Modern Portfolio Theory for more details. www.investopedia.com/terms/m/modernportfoliotheory.aspStocks are competing with all other assets; bonds, REITs, MLP's, etc, for the available money. One of the alternatives is TIPS, an inflation-protected treasury bond. This is considered the risk-free rate. When the market believes a projection of the stock price 12 months out, it calculates the expected return on the stock and uses that in its portfolio analysis. If the fed rate goes up, the attractiveness of investments that vary goes down. Every institution has criteria for how much a new stock must improve the portfolio's return and reduce its risk. One widely accepted criterion is the Efficient Frontier. you can learn more about it here: www.portfoliovisualizer.com/efficient-frontier#analysisResultsSo an increase in the risk-free rate diminishes the attractiveness of stocks. I am sure all this is automated, but anyone making an investment decision would at least have to be prepared to defend their decision against this. At least this is how decisions would be made if everyone was making rational decisions.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 23, 2021 8:40:37 GMT -8
The usual inane commentary on PED's site. Not one person there even mentioned that all of tech has been correcting. Sheet, look at TSLA lately. I might be able to buy back the shares I lost to my sold call at $650 (I was away from my computer earlier when it hot 619). Stocks go up and down, and right now there is a lot of uncertainty. Stop crying like Tommy and BTFD.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 23, 2021 8:45:33 GMT -8
Except that all of tech (QQQ) is up in the last 2 months (+2.38%) and last 6 months (11.65%) whereas AAPL is down (2 months, -5.3% / 6 months -2.6%)
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 23, 2021 8:59:43 GMT -8
Ups and downs bring interest to following the stock. But if a long term perspective on a solid company makes it so you can ignore the downs, all the better.
Bought 2k, half each at 122.7 and 122.8. Nice that even with these "Broken Markets" my limit order at 122.7 filled at 122.6899. $11.1 savings! ChaChing!
Of course now the stock is below that, but worrying about the absolute low or absolute high is just not worth it.
Reading "Broken Markets" right now. It does seem important to know that HFT are skimming off the top, whether by front running, arbitrage, trade rebates, or other methods. At the same time, even if they had taken that huge $11.1 from me during my lag due to order entry, it is pretty small in the grand scheme of things, and trivial in comparison to the 1/4 point spreads of old. OTOH, the automated trading in general could very well have been the cause of today's little dip, which matters a lot more if you only want stability, but can also give opportunities.
Ups and downs, and now AAPL is a bit lower. My slight bet is that this is the low, but history has shown there are lots of options, like another quick dip down tomorrow before heading up, or just heading down even more. We're at YOY comparisons here, the start last year's decline. Like "Factfulness" points out, things are getting better all the time, overall.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 23, 2021 9:11:05 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 23, 2021 9:16:46 GMT -8
WooHoo! It's working! For me, it didn't look like I had an email, so I had to go to my broker, go to the Shareholder Library area, and click on Vote. It said pre-voting was over, but let me start playing the meeting. That was a couple minutes in. Voting is done now. Tim is talking, going through his standard talking points. (@9:16 PT)
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 23, 2021 9:31:18 GMT -8
My god Tim is just rambling about social justice nonsense. The stock is tanking and we are talking about Climate religion. I reiterate that we need to get a new CEO. This is just ridiculous.
Oh yes, please tell us more about diversity and inclusion. This is such obvious bullshit. Tim is just reading pre-approved talking points. Another casualty of covid, this Kabuki theater.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Feb 23, 2021 9:42:20 GMT -8
Short term, voting machine. Long term, weighing machine. It’s just that this market is full of short termers.
Bud, I thought the most-used proxy for the risk-free rate was just T-bills, not TIPS.
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Feb 23, 2021 9:55:36 GMT -8
You are right, but T-bills obviously have inflation risk and I was trying to make a point. I hope I wasn't too pedantic
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 23, 2021 10:23:03 GMT -8
My god Tim is just rambling about social justice nonsense. The stock is tanking and we are talking about Climate religion. I reiterate that we need to get a new CEO. This is just ridiculous. Oh yes, please tell us more about diversity and inclusion. This is such obvious bullshit. Tim is just reading pre-approved talking points. Another casualty of covid, this Kabuki theater. If you don't like it, think of it as marketing. Years ago Apple was the tiny player. Now it's King Kong, with a target on its chest for a variety of things, from lawsuits, monopolies, and taxes. Right or wrong, that's where Apple is. Even if you don't believe it is the right thing to do in general, it's likely the right thing to do for the PR side of things. Maybe being seen as an all around good company gets some of this stuff dropped. If not, it's likely a judge or whatnot goes a little easier. I could give a big supporting background story, basically making an overly large settlement just to stay out of court, especially when the outcome is uncertain. For Apple, the best thing would be for it to not make it to the next level in the monopoly witch-hunt, ideally even with a statement from the government saying that they looked into Apple and didn't find any issues. How much would that be worth? A couple hundred million spent here and there, over climate and social justice, would be well spent just on that argument alone. Some feel it would also pay plenty of dividends in other ways too.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Feb 23, 2021 10:34:32 GMT -8
You are right, but T-bills obviously have inflation risk and I was trying to make a point. I hope I wasn't too pedantic Aw, gee, now I feel pedantic. JD, maybe I agree with you that it’s boring fluff, but if you can name someone who can extract the materials and manpower from wherever for cheaper while being on friendly terms with three different US administrations and the Chinese, do so. We’ve seen this Congress has been beating the drum on how it wants to humble Big Tech, and Cook has been the only one to navigate that minefield.
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Ted
fire starter
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Post by Ted on Feb 23, 2021 11:36:38 GMT -8
My god Tim is just rambling about social justice nonsense. The stock is tanking and we are talking about Climate religion. I reiterate that we need to get a new CEO. This is just ridiculous. Oh yes, please tell us more about diversity and inclusion. This is such obvious bullshit. Tim is just reading pre-approved talking points. Another casualty of covid, this Kabuki theater. I'm proud to own a stock that has a CEO who thinks about more than just the bottom line, that has a sense of social responsibility & justice, that has an awareness of the most critical issues before us as a country and a planet and is willing to act on those concerns as a corporation. Diversity and inclusion are key to having a vibrant, productive workforce and a happy team. Tim has been great for Apple financially and socially, and I hope he sticks around for many years to come.
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Post by duckpins on Feb 23, 2021 12:06:26 GMT -8
I picked up a few hundred shares of AAPL at 118.60. At the time, charts were frozen on my trading platform. Bought a bunch of LTHM also below where the charts recorded. Do you consider LTHM an Apple related stock or a market wide generic Lithium stock?
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Post by duckpins on Feb 23, 2021 12:08:42 GMT -8
My god Tim is just rambling about social justice nonsense. The stock is tanking and we are talking about Climate religion. I reiterate that we need to get a new CEO. This is just ridiculous. Oh yes, please tell us more about diversity and inclusion. This is such obvious bullshit. Tim is just reading pre-approved talking points. Another casualty of covid, this Kabuki theater. Maybe we can trade Cook for Draymond Green? They both love to rant off topic. Green's act is getting old here so a change might help both teams!
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Post by duckpins on Feb 23, 2021 12:11:03 GMT -8
You are right, but T-bills obviously have inflation risk and I was trying to make a point. I hope I wasn't too pedantic Aw, gee, now I feel pedantic. JD, maybe I agree with you that it’s boring fluff, but if you can name someone who can extract the materials and manpower from wherever for cheaper while being on friendly terms with three different US administrations and the Chinese, do so. We’ve seen this Congress has been beating the drum on how it wants to humble Big Tech, and Cook has been the only one to navigate that minefield. Yeah, just like Congress wanted to humble big oil and big pharma. Bid BS is all that is to fund the fund raising machines, think tanks and retirement plans. Tech is essentially autonomous at this point as are all the Oligarchs. This is not political just an observation that Apple won't be hurt by anything in DC.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 23, 2021 12:39:31 GMT -8
Wow! I give a little red, and now we're seeing green. Give Blood! It's good for AAPL (EDIT: Nice change from earlier, even if it didn't quite stay green into the close)
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 23, 2021 13:04:54 GMT -8
I sent a question asking about free speech, which of course Tim ignored because he does not believe it is a "fundamental human right" as he likes to call his weird, selective Apple Values. Bleech, listening to this guy's social justice diarrhea is starting to make me sick.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 23, 2021 13:15:00 GMT -8
I put in a question about upgradability and repairability, related to Apple being so environmental in other aspects.
Didn't get it in until late in the meeting. But I typed it out as one would say at an actual meeting, not a "When's the dividend going up" type shortie.
It would have been nice to know what percent of the questions Tim got to. But I figured he or someone would read through all the questions at some point, so felt it was worthwhile even if not answered during the meeting.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Feb 23, 2021 13:18:36 GMT -8
Yeah, just like Congress wanted to humble big oil and big pharma. Bid BS is all that is to fund the fund raising machines, think tanks and retirement plans. Tech is essentially autonomous at this point as are all the Oligarchs. This is not political just an observation that Apple won't be hurt by anything in DC. I think while Apple will get through any more hearings on it with minimal damage, Goofle and Facebook may have to make some hefty concessions affecting their bottom line. Amazon will probably have to make some smaller concessions.
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Post by macglenn on Feb 24, 2021 3:25:40 GMT -8
I picked up a few hundred shares of AAPL at 118.60. At the time, charts were frozen on my trading platform. Bought a bunch of LTHM also below where the charts recorded. Do you consider LTHM an Apple related stock or a market wide generic Lithium stock? LTHM would be a market wide play influenced primarily by the growth of the EV sector. By comparison, the mass of batteries required by one automobile equals how many iphones?
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