Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
|
Post by Dave on Feb 25, 2021 2:29:50 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
|
Post by Dave on Feb 25, 2021 2:41:48 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
|
Post by Dave on Feb 25, 2021 2:48:37 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
|
Post by Dave on Feb 25, 2021 2:57:12 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by macglenn on Feb 25, 2021 6:01:15 GMT -8
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
|
Post by 4aapl on Feb 25, 2021 7:15:37 GMT -8
Fisker Automotive/Inc has had an interesting path, but it looks like their failures and downfall in the past were mostly out of their control, due to battery issues/recalls and bankruptcy of the supplier, and then Hurricane Sandy. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisker_AutomotiveAnother parent in town that we only slightly knew had a Fisker Karma, in orange. It was a slick looking car.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
|
Post by 4aapl on Feb 25, 2021 7:37:52 GMT -8
As a followup to Lucky's post yesterday on GME, it stays strange: finance.yahoo.com/news/game-stop-soars-in-pre-market-after-sudden-104-rally-in-prior-session-124452096.htmlThe video is worth watching, including Munger, and the "penny stock or some made up coin" right at the end. No mention of Mania, but it basically fits every part of it, migrating from an actual investment in something to just a get rich quick hope. It's educational to see how these things run, especially if you can stay separated from it and see it just as an outsider. I felt the same way with Bitcoin's original super-peak 2-3 years ago, with the mainstream articles pulling in the money on the get rich quick hopes. Widespread frothiness is sometimes harder to spot when you are in it, but understanding how it can come about helps. But it probably won't be with an ice cream cone meme. (EDIT: This one is on a general bubble, or lack thereof, while pointing out a disconnect on VIX and feeling things are just getting started in this game finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-vix-bubble-morning-brief-105737080.html )
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
|
Post by JDSoCal on Feb 25, 2021 10:16:39 GMT -8
Well, AAPL keeps tanking, but at least we have diversity and inclusion and climate neutrality.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
|
Post by 4aapl on Feb 25, 2021 10:33:07 GMT -8
Well, AAPL keeps tanking, but at least we have diversity and inclusion and climate neutrality. Someone recently pointed out that those posters over on PED were not even mentioning the fact that lots of other tech stocks were taking a dip as well. Who was that?
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on Feb 25, 2021 11:29:49 GMT -8
I wonder what she considers an institution. the NASDAQ puts institutional ownership at 57.46%, so obviously there are different definitions. The NASDAQ considers anyone holding more than 1000 shares an Institution or did before the recent splits. Without the definition of institutions, I am not sure what to make of this. I get so tired of reports that have general hand waving, unquantified input data, and then predictions whose precision far exceeds any possible accuracy.
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
|
Post by Ted on Feb 25, 2021 12:34:06 GMT -8
Yeh, Hyundai, about that collaboration idea . . . www.cnn.com/2021/02/25/tech/hyundai-ev-recall/index.htmlHyundai's recall of 82,000 electric cars is one of the most expensive in history"Hyundai will recall 82,000 electric cars globally to replace their batteries after 15 reports of fires involving the vehicles. Despite the relatively small number of cars involved, Hyundai's recall is one of the most expensive in history, signaling how electric car defects could create hefty costs for automakers — at least in the near future.The recall will cost Hyundai 1 trillion Korean won, or $900 million. On a per-vehicle basis, the average cost is $11,000 — an astronomically high number for a recall."Is it the car maker's fault or the battery manufacturer's?
|
|
|
Post by ericinaustin on Feb 25, 2021 13:04:36 GMT -8
My thoughts on the car.
I think that when we think about Apple getting into the car business we think about Apple building a car or a group of cars like GM or like Tesla. Maybe they think that they can get in the high end margin part of the car business along with Tesla and carveout enough marketshare to make it a significant part of their company. Frankly the rest of the car business is low margin high cost and very competitive. I think Tim is too smart to think he can do it without taking a huge risk for the company. I also don’t think he’s arrogant enough to be blinded by the fact that they dominate one market and they’ll easily dominate one that’s totally different.
Asymco I think is closer to knowing what Apple is planning and I don’t think it looks like anything we all think of as “the car business“. Horace I think correctly points out that the future of individual transportation isn’t buying a car that is designed and priced for trips that the consumer only takes two times a year. Future growth in the car business is going to be small urban vehicles possibly autonomous that are designed for the short commute quick trips in the large cities were the vast number of people in the world live. I think they will be designing and creating autonomous urban mini Cooper like cars. We likely won’t even own them, they’ll be parked strategically around the community and be called to our house by an app and paid for by the trip or by the hour. Basically an apple built and designed “go car “ 10 to 20% of the market will be for individual ownership the rest the subscription model Uber companies other taxi services and delivery systems. Apple software Will recognize you and your iPhone when you get into the car and it’ll be just another service that iPhone owners and Apple subscribers have.
Waiting for Apple to come out with their version of a Taycan is probably miss guided.
Ericinaustin
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 25, 2021 13:25:59 GMT -8
Even after this 17% tank, AAPL's PE is still at the higher end of its recent historical range. Be careful.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 25, 2021 13:54:15 GMT -8
Here's a weekly chart of the last 3 years. I think there's a good chance that we continue down over the next 2 months to test the 50-week moving average, currently sitting at around 105. There have been 3 times in the last 3 years when we've tested that level and then continued up (plus one time when we spent 4 months below it).
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
|
Post by 4aapl on Feb 25, 2021 14:27:01 GMT -8
My thoughts on the car. I think that when we think about Apple getting into the car business we think about Apple building a car or a group of cars like GM or like Tesla. Maybe they think that they can get in the high end margin part of the car business along with Tesla and carveout enough marketshare to make it a significant part of their company. Frankly the rest of the car business is low margin high cost and very competitive. I think Tim is too smart to think he can do it without taking a huge risk for the company. I also don’t think he’s arrogant enough to be blinded by the fact that they dominate one market and they’ll easily dominate one that’s totally different. Asymco I think is closer to knowing what Apple is planning and I don’t think it looks like anything we all think of as “the car business“. Horace I think correctly points out that the future of individual transportation isn’t buying a car that is designed and priced for trips that the consumer only takes two times a year. Future growth in the car business is going to be small urban vehicles possibly autonomous that are designed for the short commute quick trips in the large cities were the vast number of people in the world live. I think they will be designing and creating autonomous urban mini Cooper like cars. We likely won’t even own them, they’ll be parked strategically around the community and be called to our house by an app and paid for by the trip or by the hour. Basically an apple built and designed “go car “ 10 to 20% of the market will be for individual ownership the rest the subscription model Uber companies other taxi services and delivery systems. Apple software Will recognize you and your iPhone when you get into the car and it’ll be just another service that iPhone owners and Apple subscribers have. Waiting for Apple to come out with their version of a Taycan is probably miss guided. Ericinaustin This does seem ideal in many ways, especially for those in cities with parking hassles. Own one less car, use public transportation or a bike/ebike when you need it, and rent a car for just when you need it. And places do it, with various spots in the SF Bay doing this. I forget the companies, but when a cousin and his girlfriend were at Stanford, they'd just rent a car on the occasions that they needed one. It makes sense, as long as it's seldom. Self-driving doesn't matter so much here. It would have an added benefit, but not having it isn't a show stopper. Likewise a tiny car, like that $14k e-car that was just announced that was $5k after incentives in China or whatever, is a great fit for a lot of things. But you're going to have to make and sell a lot of them to move the needle. But that's the thing, there is still a huge market for a variety of cars. Profit margins are important, but so is net profit per unit. By not going on the low end, someone can potentially get both a larger profit margin and a larger net profit per unit. Follow what Tesla did, aiming high at first, and then potentially coming down from there. That's also close to Apple's model in other areas, feeling that it doesn't have to compete in all levels of the market. We'll see. If Apple does end up entering the vehicle market, past actions show that they are likely to have thought about it quite a bit.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
|
Post by chinacat on Feb 25, 2021 14:43:36 GMT -8
This is certainly one of the most frustrating periods for AAPL in quite a while, with continued disappointing price action in the face of an extremely successful quarterly report. I guess it is somewhat the flip side of the meteoric rise last year, although the business side at that time was certainly quite positive, if perhaps not quite justifying the run up to the stock split. This too shall pass, especially as both the results and the full implications of Apple silicon become increasingly obvious. It’s nice to have Apple Car to talk about, but its effect on AAPL is likely still relatively far in the future.
BWDIK
|
|
|
Post by davidstevenson on Feb 25, 2021 15:24:30 GMT -8
Budd77: “ The NASDAQ considers anyone holding more than 1000 shares an Institution or did before the recent splits.”
So I am an institution! Of course, I have been speaking pros all my life without realizing it.
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on Feb 25, 2021 15:41:49 GMT -8
A modest thought about the current market.....I get the feeling, and that is all it is, that people are scared. After all the angst about COVID, the insurrection, the election, and everything else, all of a sudden we see the one thing that seemed to be unaffected, the market, under attack. I think the wild swings associated with Gamestop, as well as the power of the children to disrupt the market has sent people running for cover either Bitcoin, commodities, or defensive stocks. Tech and Tesla seem risky. This of course is exactly the kind of irrational thinking that creates opportunities. There is nothing, nothing ahead of us that threatens Apple's growth. Even without a car, the upgrade to 5G and the emergence of AR would be enough to make this the best of times. Add to that low-interest rates, an economy that is re-emerging from a pandemic, and the benefits of the M1 chips. If you are not optimistic right now, you probably should not be in stocks. I am buying with both hands.
I am looking at a 6-month horizon, I have no idea what will happen between now and earnings
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 25, 2021 16:06:41 GMT -8
A modest thought about the current market.....I get the feeling, and that is all it is, that people are scared. After all the angst about COVID, the insurrection, the election, and everything else, all of a sudden we see the one thing that seemed to be unaffected, the market, under attack. I think the wild swings associated with Gamestop, as well as the power of the children to disrupt the market has sent people running for cover either Bitcoin, commodities, or defensive stocks. Tech and Tesla seem risky. This of course is exactly the kind of irrational thinking that creates opportunities. There is nothing, nothing ahead of us that threatens Apple's growth. Even without a car, the upgrade to 5G and the emergence of AR would be enough to make this the best of times. Add to that low-interest rates, an economy that is re-emerging from a pandemic, and the benefits of the M1 chips. If you are not optimistic right now, you probably should not be in stocks. I am buying with both hands. I am looking at a 6-month horizon, I have no idea what will happen between now and earnings Agree with your assessment about fear and the opportunities it creates. Apple’s business and products are firing on all cylinders. However, I am worried about AAPL’s valuation. A few years ago, Apple’s business was also firing on all cylinders and the market valued it at sub-20 PE. I can’t say why the market would sustain a value of 30 PE now. That worries me. I wonder if the pandemic stock market, with sustained low interest rates and everyone confident in Fed support, led to an increase in leverage that boosted AAPL’s PE beyond historical ranges. If that dynamic ends it doesn’t matter how good business is for Apple. A 20 PE would take AAPL down to $75 per share. Even with huge earnings increases, a 20 PE would keep the stock below 100. I’m still holding because I’ve done very well buying at 30 RSI and holding until > 70 RSI. But there is still risk at these prices.
|
|
|
Post by hledgard on Feb 25, 2021 18:54:02 GMT -8
Great post archibaldtuttle !
The rise over the past year or so has been certainly unusual, to say the least.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
|
Post by JDSoCal on Feb 26, 2021 8:55:07 GMT -8
Well, AAPL keeps tanking, but at least we have diversity and inclusion and climate neutrality. Someone recently pointed out that those posters over on PED were not even mentioning the fact that lots of other tech stocks were taking a dip as well. Who was that? That was me *before* Tim Cook had spoken to all the owners of the company on a conference call - listened to by Wall Street analysts - where he frittered away the time talking about social justice bullshit instead of distinguishing the company from all the other investment opportunities in the world. I don't think anyone came away from that shareholder meeting thinking, "Wow, Apple is really 100% committed to increasing shareholder value." Same old Tim bullshit. So much innovation that we can't even tell you about it! Keep waiting for Godot!
|
|
|
Post by hledgard on Feb 26, 2021 9:19:20 GMT -8
I agree. A long time ago Tim mention the value and work of VR/AR. Several times. Where is it? And is blood sugar monitoring around the corner? Other health monitoring, on the watch or otherwise?
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Feb 26, 2021 9:32:21 GMT -8
I agree. A long time ago Tim mention the value and work of VR/AR. Several times. Where is it? And is blood sugar monitoring around the corner? Other health monitoring, on the watch or otherwise? You need to find something legit to complain about. Apple’s AR kit is solid. As far as hardware goes, the current market is a niche of a niche of a niche. In part due to devices that are full of compromises and to put it bluntly, crap. Apple has the time and resources to deliver something legit, and there is no rush to do so. The market won’t disappear or have a dominant player by then. These devices are very difficult to get right, as the engineering challenge is huge. Good on Apple for not introducing half baked stuff that the market is full of now. And have you not been paying attention to the Watch? Series 6 introduced Blood Oxygen. Find me an alternative that is doing better than Apple on health. Standing by.
|
|
|
Post by aaplsauce on Feb 26, 2021 10:02:57 GMT -8
JD spews: Well, AAPL keeps tanking, but at least we have diversity and inclusion and climate neutrality. Oh yes, please tell us more about diversity and inclusion. This is such obvious bullshit. Bleech, listening to this guy's social justice diarrhea is starting to make me sick. The usual inane commentary on PED's site.
AAPL probably isn't the stock for white nationalists to invest in.
Apple sells its products worldwide, so diversity, inclusion, climate neutrality, and social justice, are relevant. The overwhelming majority of AAPL shareholders support Apple and Tim Cook. I'm thrilled that investing in Apple has permitted me to live a life of leisure and to be a part of a company that does great things for the world.
PED's site has a lot to offer, which probably explains why so much of his content is copied & pasted to this site, hopefully with his consent.
|
|