Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Apr 8, 2021 2:08:27 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Apr 8, 2021 2:12:16 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Apr 8, 2021 2:26:07 GMT -8
Hey Morgan Stanley, what peer pressure on Apple?I find it strange that as long as Katy Hubert forecasts ever increasing price targets, she receives praise and admiration. But if she provides a negative forecast, or as in this case not as positive, then she is criticized for her lack of vision and understanding. Place your bets ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Apr 8, 2021 2:28:53 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Apr 8, 2021 5:13:16 GMT -8
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Post by socal Film Composer on Apr 8, 2021 5:37:29 GMT -8
Looks like we've finally broken out of the 120 doll-drums. That support has held weeks of consolidation, and we can finally start to move towards a valuation in line with other big cap tech names. Looking forward to earnings, and the dividend increase as well.
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Post by zebrum on Apr 8, 2021 6:36:15 GMT -8
A 6 month delay on new products due to chip shortages could keep us in the 120 doldrums for the rest of the year. Pent-up demand could lead to a blockbuster of a 2022 though.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 8, 2021 11:06:18 GMT -8
A 6 month delay on new products due to chip shortages could keep us in the 120 doldrums for the rest of the year. Pent-up demand could lead to a blockbuster of a 2022 though. Looks like it's not mattering much, at least today. With only having the rumor to go off of, it's hard to know if it's a 2 week delay or 6 month (I'd guess 1-3 months), and what exactly that means. Is it just on a product refresh, or does it affect existing products, in a quantity large enough to affect end-product supply in normal times rather than just in an upswing with a product refresh? Apple has to deal with supply issues on an annual basis with the iPhone, though there just tweaking the release date by a few weeks is normally plenty. Luckily we know that Apple is one of the best at dealing with this sort of thing, normally having multiple sources, and with the cash on hand to be willing to pay a premium for priority, or even fund more manufacturing machines to improve the situation. Like the toilet paper crisis nearly a year ago, the question is if there is a lasting demand change, and what can be done in the shorter term on the supply side to minimize the impact. If these supply issues are just hitting now, well after the initial temporary closures, canceled orders, and demand spike for various electronics, then this might have more to do with a lasting demand increase. It's one thing to have a ship block a major canal for around a week, but a whole other issue if the canal demand is and stays at levels above the capacity. The same thing is true with the chip shortage. But, if supply issues affect Apple, and it's a fungible product used across multiple product lines, then I'm pretty certain Apple will make the solid business choice of favoring supply of it's higher margin items even if it means lower margin items are constrained.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Apr 8, 2021 12:40:31 GMT -8
Another great close. The high for the day was made going into the end of the trading day with a large jump in volume. Bodes well for tomorrow.
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Post by nwjade on Apr 8, 2021 13:05:00 GMT -8
Another great close. The high for the day was made going into the end of the trading day with a large jump in volume. Bodes well for tomorrow. Would be very bullish to have aapl close above 130 tomorrow...
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 8, 2021 13:05:24 GMT -8
Another great close. The high for the day was made going into the end of the trading day with a large jump in volume. Bodes well for tomorrow. FWIW, the P/E of 43.5 from around Jan 25th that gave 142-145 price, would now give $160. Not that I expect that in the very short term, but there is plenty of room to run within the recently seen P/E range. Nice to see some action in AAPL. Maybe these "just about anything else should outperform tech, including Apple" pieces will slow.
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Post by duckpins on Apr 8, 2021 13:16:09 GMT -8
Hey Morgan Stanley, what peer pressure on Apple?I find it strange that as long as Katy Hubert forecasts ever increasing price targets, she receives praise and admiration. But if she provides a negative forecast, or as in this case not as positive, then she is criticized for her lack of vision and understanding. Place your bets ladies and gentlemen, place your bets. Intangibles aside there was a P&F Bull breakout today on Apple's daily chart. Last breakout was in Jan of this year. After 3 months or so of this China tech sell off the old school P&F charts are saying to buy Apple right here.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 8, 2021 13:24:39 GMT -8
Anyone into TA anymore? Cup and handle on the chart?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Apr 8, 2021 13:59:02 GMT -8
Anyone into TA anymore? Cup and handle on the chart? For those that think that a cup and handle only applies to a tea set here is a definition: 10 chart patterns every trader needs to knowThank you archibaldtuttle for pointing that out. I haven’t looked at a chart in a while. This is very bullish. I like very bullish!
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Post by longsince98 on Apr 8, 2021 14:05:24 GMT -8
Another great close. The high for the day was made going into the end of the trading day with a large jump in volume. Bodes well for tomorrow. FWIW, the P/E of 43.5 from around Jan 25th that gave 142-145 price, would now give $160. Not that I expect that in the very short term, but there is plenty of room to run within the recently seen P/E range. Nice to see some action in AAPL. Maybe these "just about anything else should outperform tech, including Apple" pieces will slow. what would the p/e be if aapl only reclaimed just the prior ath? there’s an argument that due to market psychology, the prior p/e isn’t easily retainable for aapl. thanks
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 8, 2021 14:26:34 GMT -8
FWIW, the P/E of 43.5 from around Jan 25th that gave 142-145 price, would now give $160. Not that I expect that in the very short term, but there is plenty of room to run within the recently seen P/E range. Nice to see some action in AAPL. Maybe these "just about anything else should outperform tech, including Apple" pieces will slow. what would the p/e be if aapl only reclaimed just the prior ath? there’s an argument that due to market psychology, the prior p/e isn’t easily retainable for aapl. thanks 145/3.69 = ~ 39.3 Seems about right, with maybe a quick touch of 40. That would be 10% away from 160. If things go great all around I could see that hitting in the summer sometime, and if things are just pretty good that seems like a fair target by the time new iPhones come out. But that's getting a little ahead of things. Just as this last year hasn't been a normal year, the year ahead won't be normal either. For timeframes like this, it's really more of a guess than most shorter term predictions ever are.
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Post by hyci004 on Apr 8, 2021 15:19:35 GMT -8
AAPL was punished twice for not giving Q1 and Q2 guidance. Hopefully Tim and Co will give a Q3 guidance this time.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Apr 8, 2021 18:45:17 GMT -8
It'll be fine if they don't - for the longs, way longs.
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Post by Luckychoices on Apr 8, 2021 21:10:13 GMT -8
AAPL was punished twice for not giving Q1 and Q2 guidance. Hopefully Tim and Co will give a Q3 guidance this time. Actually, remembering all the times Apple's share price has taken a hit because of a slight miss of their quarterly guidance *estimate*, I'd be happy if Apple *never* gives quarterly guidance anytime in the future.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 8, 2021 22:55:28 GMT -8
AAPL was punished twice for not giving Q1 and Q2 guidance. Hopefully Tim and Co will give a Q3 guidance this time. Actually, remembering all the times Apple's share price has taken a hit because of a slight miss of their quarterly guidance *estimate*, I'd be happy if Apple *never* gives quarterly guidance anytime in the future. That sounds great, until the analysts get as riled up as the investors in a bubbly time, throwing out estimates that are harder and harder to grasp at, and making for a much bigger eventual "miss" than it would be perceived otherwise. Sometimes it's better to set the range a bit, and doing that directly with forward guidance at earnings is better than whisper meetings with an occasional analyst. And Apple normally has the big advantage that they are giving guidance roughly a third of the way into the new quarter. Talk about an advantage to the house.
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