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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 18, 2013 17:59:07 GMT -8
Love - Are you looking at FB at all? Any opinion here? FB DAILY CHART: Phoebes: Moving averages: think of the moving averages as degrees of bullish- or bearish-ness. So here, price is under: EMA-13, SMA-20 and SMA-50. Very much in Bear Country. If price can't get back over SMA-50 (currently at 28.78), then target SMA-100 (currently 25.33). MACD-h: valley with a positive slope = upwave in a downtrend. MACD (red and black line): below the center line = intermediate-term downtrend / consolidation period. That said, price is making higher lows (compare to 25.15 and 18.87), and the MACD-h is making lower lows. This is Hidden Bullish Divergence, so *potentially* one more push up coming, *maybe* to retest SMA-20 (around 29.62). HOWEVER, if that push up fails to make a higher high, then you've got an H&S set up with a measured move back to that 20-ish area.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 18, 2013 18:05:43 GMT -8
Macro IHS to watch out for?
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 18, 2013 18:11:18 GMT -8
Macro IHS to watch out for? NICE CATCH!!! I didn't even see that until you pointed it out!! Yes, that would be in play on a decisive break above 33.50-ish.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 18, 2013 18:24:08 GMT -8
Well, I could be wrong on the formation. Are gap downs allowed like the one in late July?
That multi-month island bottom in November was brutal to anyone betting to the downside on FB. I wish a similar fate upon dedicated AAPL bears soon. ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 18, 2013 19:10:25 GMT -8
GOOG DAILY: GOOG WEEKLY:
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 18, 2013 19:11:00 GMT -8
Well, I could be wrong on the formation. Are gap downs allowed like the one in late July? Not sure since IPO...?
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Post by fas550 on Feb 18, 2013 19:40:24 GMT -8
Have a look at VCLK. I am thinking about a BearCS jun exp, 23 -27. I'd appreciate anyone's input. Unless you have impeccable timing, don't step in front of a train. No divergences on daily or weekly charts. I would venture the first pullback will be bought, and I would wait for the subsequent retest of the highs on bearish divergence to take a short entry potentially targeting the gap fill. Thanks for your advice. Yes I was planning on waiting for the first pullback and see how it goes. Given the RSI and MFI are at yearly highs, the pullback should be soon. We'll see. Thanks again, just looking for a sanity check.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 18, 2013 20:00:56 GMT -8
fas, just remember that with an especially strong trend, RSI can embed in overbought territory.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 19, 2013 11:48:01 GMT -8
Gimme a break, GOOG.
Though part of me was wondering if GOOG would hit 800.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Feb 19, 2013 13:36:43 GMT -8
GOOG thoughts rolling around my head at the mo...
- GOOG said to be planning retail stores, inevitable that they feature their own hardware? - Success of retail (expensive business if done well, and I'd expect high standards) dependant on sales and traffic... - Result is self-perpetuating increased focus on Moto hardware, start of alienation from ODM's? - Samesung said to be planning drive on own device OS beginning Q4
It is in my mind inevitable that the SS GOOG marriage will drift, it's a matter of when. Turbulence and opportunities will appear.
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Post by nathanstevens on Feb 20, 2013 7:54:55 GMT -8
I'm interested to see if GOOG will fizzle in the $80X's as AAPL fizzled in the $70X's? I guess this will play out soon if the top is similar.
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Post by fas550 on Feb 20, 2013 8:18:59 GMT -8
Another one I have my sights on to short is CREE. Looks good candidate to me; just not yet.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 20, 2013 12:08:15 GMT -8
AMZN. Hmm...
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 20, 2013 12:29:12 GMT -8
I shorted GOOG and AMZN.
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Post by fas550 on Feb 20, 2013 13:09:24 GMT -8
How? BearCS, plain puts ? Details girl, details?
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Post by macziggy on Feb 20, 2013 13:15:41 GMT -8
I shorted GOOG, too, late yesterday afternoon. March 16 bear put spreads 780-785 @$1.00. Sold half at close. Also holding AAPL March 16 bear put spreads 430-435 @$1.00 as hedge.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 20, 2013 13:57:08 GMT -8
Initiated a put bet (momo/swing timeframe) on AMZN. Probably too late. ;D
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icam
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Post by icam on Feb 20, 2013 13:57:31 GMT -8
I shorted AMZN yesterday. July Bear Put Spreads.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 20, 2013 14:31:57 GMT -8
macZiggy and icam, good job!!! Mav, IMHO, not too late for AMZN...just getting started. That sucker was clinging to the iron post with both hands today! fas, JUN'13 bear put spreads on GOOG, and one baby unhedged MAR'13 put on AMZN. The latter is very NOT me as I usually don't like holding unhedged options overnight; so I will open bear put spreads at least three months out on a break of 263-ish. AMZN INTRADAY 30-MIN CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 22, 2013 12:03:44 GMT -8
Just for fun, what's the read on NFLX? Not following terribly closely, but I'm sure the savvier traders (assuming they actually did identify and trade the opportunity) would be saying something like "you missed the initial move down, don't chase, look to short any weak bounce as a new entry".
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 24, 2013 9:39:39 GMT -8
AMZN Daily: AMZN Weekly:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 24, 2013 12:12:20 GMT -8
AMZN is a risky short as always, but there is a half-decent hypothesis for a downside trade I'd think. For the bearish types, it's nice to see what looks like the beginnings of upside rejection as exemplified by the black line failing to cross over and slightly "bouncing off" the red line on the daily regular MACD-h. Seems unique to the shown timeframe.
The funny thing is, when you get mildly better at technicals you think "but the price action has been showing me this anyway!" Technicals help tie things together that way - even if some of it is just "repackaging" the raw data of the minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour tape into different visuals.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 25, 2013 11:55:46 GMT -8
Upside rejection on AMZN, looks like. Retesting the SMA-50 is "nice" for those betting on down.
Holy crap, I think I had an eighth of a clue from the AMZN daily!
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 25, 2013 13:37:35 GMT -8
Holy crap, I think I had an eighth of a clue from the AMZN daily! YAY, MAV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 25, 2013 13:42:53 GMT -8
AMZN is currently my top-performing anything so far this year. I think I'm actually up a couple grand!
(NOW just watch what happens...)
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 25, 2013 13:59:17 GMT -8
AMZN is currently my top-performing anything so far this year. I think I'm actually up a couple grand! (NOW just watch what happens...) HOOORAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Trim and trail...or hedge into bear put spread...or something to protect / lock in some profits?! AMZN daily chart ---> MACD-h bearish cross. Weekly crossed down a smidge too.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 25, 2013 16:37:16 GMT -8
AMZN is still a good short here IMO. I think it's relatively safe and could pay off big. GIS looks like a pretty safe short. Not as big of a reward as AMZN could yield.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 25, 2013 16:59:28 GMT -8
About AMZN:
SMA-50 daily refail on retest?
Potential H&S starting from either late November-ish/mid-December?
MACD-h crossover rejection?
SIGN ME UP! ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 25, 2013 17:20:01 GMT -8
GOOG looking kind of interesting from a short perspective. Am I too late?
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 25, 2013 17:57:02 GMT -8
GOOG looking kind of interesting from a short perspective. Am I too late? IMHO, not too late on GOOG.
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