However, possible events such as discussed in The Taiwan Temptation, would definitely be cause for concern.
As the most valued company in the world, Apple has many things that can cause a negative response to AAPL. The potential disruption of the supply chain, attacks on the business model, changes to the corporate tax structure, changes to the investor’s tax structure, and general business competition are all things that are aligning against AAPL. These things will IMO affect the stock price more than the business itself. Further, the uncertainty about these things are the biggest hinderance to AAPL moving up.
Re: what should TC do? I think it is being done: 1) move whatever supply chain you can out of China. 2) Move whatever supply chain you can out of Taiwan. A recent article noted that Apple now has more supplies coming from China than from Taiwan. Longterm, I think Apple will be fine; not so sure about AAPL in the near term.
While watching the market's reaction to and treatment of Apple this year, I keep hearing lyrics to Dylan's "Ballad of a Thin Man". Specifically..."There's something going on here and you don't know what it is, do you, Mr. Jones? Fundamentals are ignored, Blow-out results don't move the needle, 5G and AR don't inspire optimism, It is like there is a shadow apple forum completely dedicated to car talk that I am not aware of.
Seriously, Trying to understand the dynamics of the Apple stock movement has become an avocation. There is just enough coherence to the behavior to sustain the belief that it can be predicted and enough randomness to keep me guessing. My latest hypotheses focus on the environment in which the stock exists. I think of the problem as a man looking at the map of a river. He has no idea what a river actually is, but he is trying to predict whether it will turn right or left. Careful study reveals that there is a pattern to the turns and that rules can be developed. The rules vary depending on how large the river sections are. As the river gets larger, for instance through tributaries (acquisitions), the character of the movements change. The value of different predictors is constantly discussed, but none can be validated. Now suppose that the man is given a contour map. Suddenly the meanders and turns make sense. The river is simply following the course of least resistance through the terrain.
So what is our terrain? I suspect that it has a lot to do with the money available to invest and the relative attraction of alternatives. I don't think it was a coincidence that this current irrationality started about the time that Robinhood opened the floodgates and welcomed a new class of investors into the market. Institutional ownership has dropped to around 50% from the normal 60%. I wonder if people are using Apple like a bank. A place to store wealth while they chase the hot stock of the day?
If Apple is being used as a Bitcoin surrogate, I would expect to see some correlation between prices. The Merry Men sell Apple (or Bitcoin) to ride Reddit's road to riches, then return their profits to Apple until the next foray. To look at this hypothesis, I looked at the closing daily prices for Bitcoin and Apple to see if there was a significant correction. Using YTD data, I got a Pearson's R-value of .671 ( for the statisticians out there, the P-value was .000). Perfect correlation is 1. -1 means they move opposite to each other perfectly. 0 means there is no correlation. .671 is a moderately strong indication of correlation. Keep in mind that correlation doesn't prove causation. A and B can be correlated because they are both caused by C, which, of course, was our hypothesis. There may be other things affecting the correlation, who knows?
I am just throwing this out there with the hope that someone smarter than I am will run with it. I have not done an extensive literature search so if you are aware of papers exploring this idea, please enlighten me.
Speaking of rivers, I just saw some in MN and ND. From the air they are amazing, whipping around more than a rattle snake. For those unfamiliar, take a moment to look at the Red River on a map, making up the boarder between ND and MN. It's amazing, if you haven't seen such a thing. (EDIT: much different than a bigger river flowing with some force, through different soil/rock structures. That's why the Big Bend section of the Colorado is so noteworthy)
One thing to remember is that AAPL is not alone in this pattern. Pulling up some similars on the 6 month chart, NFLX and AMZN are a pretty good match, all within about a 2% of 0. And while not a good match in general, TSLA's recent drop has brought it to the same point as these other 3, on the 6 month.
OTOH, MSFT and FB are beating the S&P by a little, the Nasdaq is a little behind (up 11%). And GOOG broke upwards about 2 months ago, up 33% for the 6 month.
Ugly URL, but it has them added in already. Drop TSLA from the chart and it is cleaner.
But seeing that it's not just AAPL in this funk changes the focus from "something strange is going on with AAPL" to "it's strange times, a little different than most other times in the past 25 years". Some say it's sector rotation, favoring things that are likely to improve the most at this stage in the recovery. Others say it's like a snake that only eats a mouse once a week, that now the stock needs some time to digest it's huge gains from the last year (and 3-5 years).
Either way, changing the focus makes me worry a little less that someone out there sees something much different in Apple than I do, a huge black swan, and rather that this is just a period a set of stocks are going through.
Well, AAPL is on the run for now, but will it do it’s usual sell off going into the close? I hope not.
If it weren't for the others behaving similarly, I would think this to be a pre-WWDC step up. Not a huge rumors based change, but a step up.
There's many unknowns and wall of worry items out there, for Apple but more for the market and economy in general. Taking additional risks for potential reward only goes so far.
It's crazy times out there for employment. 3 of the 6 restaurants we went to while driving back from MN said they were short staffed. In town, ACE is talking about being closed on weekends due to staffing, offering $15/hr plus benefits to those 16+. A friend of ours with a restaurant has started hiring as young as 14 for prep and dishwashing, and my son had his first night there along with 2 other 14 year olds. It's good to see him jumping on this, babysitting, snowplowing, and pine needle raking. While we do a lot, sometimes we worry that not having traditional jobs for the past few years would rub off wrong on the kids.
It would be nice to see some more volume with AAPL on a green day. But a green day, especially if it closes above that 200 DMA, will be appreciated.
We have the choice to build this board up, or tear it down. Make the right choice, or don't post here.
To All: Keep non-Apple SPECIFIC political stuff out of the daily thread. Thanks to name-calling and a lack of discussion, it's no longer allowed in the Dungeon either.
8-24-20 I give a 40+% probability on 15+% annualized returns for the next 2 years. For Sept expirations, using today's ($125.75), that's roughly ($146) for Sept '21, ($169) for Sept '22
We should make a deal. Give China to the Chinese and in return free Tibet. The Delai Llama could live in freedom with his people and Tibet could flourish as the spiritual center of the world. not to mention water to lots of asia has its start there. I think that's a good horse trade. Free Tibet and give the Chinese China which they think is their's anyway.
SomeJuan: M1X... 16 cores of CPU, 16 cores of GPU, 4nm TSM fab, katy bar the door...
Jan 16, 2021 9:45:11 GMT -5
mercel: It's been a long strange trip - good to see you're still around (and in AAPL -my assumption).
May 10, 2019 12:48:32 GMT -5
Zeke: Long time no see. Nice to see familiar names still here.
Mar 25, 2019 14:42:52 GMT -5
sponge: Regarding the future of VR, I think it will be huge. I was a gamer when I was in college. But as an adult I lost interest. Last fall I flew up to visit my son at college and check out his new Vive set up. After playing with it for the weekend, I was
Apr 29, 2018 15:25:17 GMT -5
galleybob: thanks for your answer. I will copy and send to her
Nov 7, 2017 15:32:18 GMT -5
rickag: So since Jan 28th 2015 AAPL is up from 117.27 to 157.21
Aug 21, 2017 20:09:43 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 29.21 AAPL = $117.27 AFTER EARNINGS
Jan 28, 2015 14:54:46 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 44.94 AAPL = $110.39 BEFORE EARNINGS
Jan 27, 2015 11:12:53 GMT -5