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Post by aaplsauce on Jun 10, 2021 21:30:11 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Jun 11, 2021 1:15:52 GMT -8
Thanks applesauce for that link about tracking pixels. It is well worth the read. Just something else that was going on right in front me that I was unaware of. Apple continues to disrupt the predators.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jun 11, 2021 6:26:34 GMT -8
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Post by aaplsauce on Jun 11, 2021 6:56:51 GMT -8
Thanks applesauce for that link about tracking pixels. It is well worth the read. Just something else that was going on right in front me that I was unaware of. Apple continues to disrupt the predators. Dave, regarding those tracking pixels embedded in emails, I've found that unchecking “Load remote content in messages” in mail preferences has seemed to help decrease unwanted emails over time. How to block tracking pixels in Apple Mail
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Post by aaplcrazie on Jun 11, 2021 7:46:26 GMT -8
Also in Mail depending which Vs your using you can expand the mail window really wide, then in Prefereces under the view menu select classic view. This lets you read the first couple of lines of an e-mail without actually interacting with it or opening it.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jun 11, 2021 10:31:39 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 11, 2021 11:53:45 GMT -8
Wow, that volume is amazingly low. 45M going into the close, compared to an average of nearly 90M.
Is this just Friday's in the summer? I know personally we've had a lot going on the past few weeks, with both schools ending this week, various end-of-schoolyear stuff going on, and a few other things. But I didn't think traders and investors were on summer vacation yet.
(S&P volume is about 1/3 of normal, and Nasdaq is maybe 75% of normal, so AAPL is inline with those)
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Post by dc930 on Jun 11, 2021 11:54:20 GMT -8
Question for a Friday afternoon: I've been a shareholder for ~15 years and it clearly has been one of the better financial decisions made in my lifetime. Looking ahead to the next 15 years, I certainly don't expect the same annualized performance, but if you were forced to write down a number, what do you think about AAPL total returns over the next 15 years?
Personally, I can't think of a much better place to keep money. I think the combination of increasing dividends and share repurchases will continue to make AAPL a solid investment for the foreseeable future. 10% annualized? I think that's a fair bet, and where else are you getting that kind of return over the long haul?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 11, 2021 12:04:02 GMT -8
Question for a Friday afternoon: I've been a shareholder for ~15 years and it clearly has been one of the better financial decisions made in my lifetime. Looking ahead to the next 15 years, I certainly don't expect the same annualized performance, but if you were forced to write down a number, what do you think about AAPL total returns over the next 15 years? Personally, I can't think of a much better place to keep money. I think the combination of increasing dividends and share repurchases will continue to make AAPL a solid investment for the foreseeable future. 10% annualized? I think that's a fair bet, and where else are you getting that kind of return over the long haul? 10% seems fair for a ballpark (for the next 15 years), especially given the dividend and buybacks. I tend to split it out a little, maybe thinking 12% for a couple years, then 10%, and then closer to market averages of 8%. All while trying to be conservative. I'd be more than happy to guess a conservative or reasonable number, and then have AAPL do even better than expected. OTOH, if I'm being a little more bullish, maybe checking levels to write covered calls, maybe I instead use larger percentages. That helps find levels that I should be happy at selling. But, FWIW, that thinking is what led me to previously write some Jan '22's at 135, which starting 10 months ago stopped looking like it would be hard to get to. Now it just helps balance things out a little, and it will help in forcing my hand to tax out some gains and potentially diversify a small percentage. Congrats on your very long holding timeframe!!!
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Post by dc930 on Jun 11, 2021 13:08:41 GMT -8
Question for a Friday afternoon: I've been a shareholder for ~15 years and it clearly has been one of the better financial decisions made in my lifetime. Looking ahead to the next 15 years, I certainly don't expect the same annualized performance, but if you were forced to write down a number, what do you think about AAPL total returns over the next 15 years? Personally, I can't think of a much better place to keep money. I think the combination of increasing dividends and share repurchases will continue to make AAPL a solid investment for the foreseeable future. 10% annualized? I think that's a fair bet, and where else are you getting that kind of return over the long haul? 10% seems fair for a ballpark (for the next 15 years), especially given the dividend and buybacks. I tend to split it out a little, maybe thinking 12% for a couple years, then 10%, and then closer to market averages of 8%. All while trying to be conservative. I'd be more than happy to guess a conservative or reasonable number, and then have AAPL do even better than expected. OTOH, if I'm being a little more bullish, maybe checking levels to write covered calls, maybe I instead use larger percentages. That helps find levels that I should be happy at selling. But, FWIW, that thinking is what led me to previously write some Jan '22's at 135, which starting 10 months ago stopped looking like it would be hard to get to. Now it just helps balance things out a little, and it will help in forcing my hand to tax out some gains and potentially diversify a small percentage. Congrats on your very long holding timeframe!!! Thanks, 4appl. It enabled me to put 20% down on my first home, and allow me to not worry/dwell on my family's financial situation. Who knows, maybe it will even let me retire early. I too would like to implement a covered call strategy. Up until now I would describe my call-writing as the "shotgun approach" which admittedly has worked out more often than not, but there's no real method to my madness.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jun 11, 2021 15:58:20 GMT -8
Question for a Friday afternoon: I've been a shareholder for ~15 years and it clearly has been one of the better financial decisions made in my lifetime. Looking ahead to the next 15 years, I certainly don't expect the same annualized performance, but if you were forced to write down a number, what do you think about AAPL total returns over the next 15 years? We made our purchase at about the same time, so like you you we benefited from the 7-for-1 split, as well as the recent 4-for-1. As the saying goes, “timing is everything”.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jun 11, 2021 19:00:14 GMT -8
Regarding CAGR for next 5 years. I need to look, but I had my spreadsheet based off of an analyst's data, likely Katie Huberty's, that had number for the expected CAGR of dividends and share repurchases alone. I recall these contributing roughly 5% going forward for 5 years.
Add some organic earnings growth, beyond that which the buybacks contribute, and we should be good. Add a lot of earnings growth, and wow.
AAPL's was about 28% CAGR for the last 10 years (Aug 2020).
Agree: 4AAPL "I tend to split it out a little, maybe thinking 12% for a couple years, then 10%, and then closer to market averages of 8%. All while trying to be conservative."
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